CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Guinea

Election-related violence continued, including with active participation of military. After peaceful 7 Nov second round of presidential election, situation deteriorated 15 Nov following election commission (CENI) preliminary results declaring opposition leader Alpha Condé winner with 52.5% of vote; former PM Cellou Diallo took 47.5%. Clashes between security forces and Diallo supporters protesting results in Conakry and elsewhere 15 Nov descended into 3 days of violence, including systematic attacks by security forces on Diallo’s ethnic Peul supporters; at least 4 dead, 300 injured. Army Chief Nouhou Thiam 17 Nov declared 8-day state of emergency; Condé played down fears of ethnic conflict, saying divisions exaggerated. International election observers stated voting process “appeared free and fair”, but Diallo 14 Nov withdrew his Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG) party officials from vote count, citing electoral fraud, pre-election violence and intimidation. UN OHCHR 19 Nov expressed “deep concern” at excessive use of force by military post-election. PM Doré 27 Nov announced sacking army deputy chief of staff General Aboubakar Sidiki Camara and closure of borders ahead of Supreme Court’s declaration of official results anticipated 2 Dec.

Africa

Guinea

Violence sparked by further delays to second round of presidential elections saw 1,800 displaced; situation tense ahead of next week’s poll. Election commission’s third postponement of run-off 22 Oct led to 3 days of looting, clashes between rival supporters of presidential candidates Cellou Diallo and Alpha Conde in Conakry and at least 4 other towns. Both candidates 24 Oct called for calm; govt 27 Oct announced new 7 Nov date for polls. UN 28 Oct stated at least 1,800 from Peul ethnic group forced to flee. 19 Oct election-related violence between Diallo supporters and security forces resulted in 2 killed, 29 injured. Conde 28 Oct pulled out of joint tour of country with rival Diallo aimed at easing pre-election tensions, citing opposition from supporters. Govt 11 Oct said both presidential candidates Diallo and Conde agreed on post-election power-sharing deal to ease peaceful transition to civilian rule. President Konate 19 Oct appointed General Siaka Toumani Sangare as new election commission head; former head Louceny Camara sentenced by Conakry court 22 Oct to 12-month prison term for vote- rigging in June first round poll. Burkina Faso President and chief mediator Blaise Compaore met separately with presidential candidates 30 Oct emphasising their responsibility in maintaining security.

Africa

Guinea

Planned 19 Sept second round of presidential election thrown into disarray following slow progress addressing technical problems that marred first round. Charges against election commission (CENI) President Ben Sekou Sylla and director of planning Elhaj Boubacar Diallo 10 Sept raised both legal, political controversies; both sentenced to 12 months in prison. Election campaign in Conakry saw violent clashes 11, 12 Sept between rival supporters of presidential candidates Alpha Conde and Cellou Diallo: 1 killed, dozens injured. Interim govt suspended campaigning, banned demonstrations. Following 13 Sept death in Paris hospital of CENI President Sylla, election commission 15 Sept postponed run-off election citing lack of preparation; interim Guinean President Konate claimed “republic in danger” due to ethnic, political divisions. UNSC 17 Sept, heads of UN peacekeeping missions across W Africa 30 Sept urged prompt announcement of new date; ECOWAS 17 Sept called on candidates to honour 3 Sept agreement to run peaceful campaigns. 24 Sept nomination of new CENI head Lounceny Camara and announcement of 10 Oct run-off date sparked renewed controversy late month as Cellou Diallo refused to participate claiming Camara supports rival candidate Alpha Conde; date yet to be confirmed by Konate.

Africa

Guinea

Announcement of date for 2nd round of presidential elections allayed concerns about delays in process, but observers flag divisive nature of polls, possible exacerbation of latent ethnic tensions. Ad hoc commission tasked to investigate flaws in 27 June first round submitted recommendations end July; election commission subsequently requested deferral of 2nd round. Official mediator Blaise Compaoré visiting 3 Aug urged 2nd round to take place as soon as possible. Following 3 Aug Supreme Court ruling, presidential decree confirmed 19 Sept date for 2nd round. PM seeking change to electoral code, called for enhanced role of Ministry of Territorial Administration in election organisation; triggered criticism from various quarters, including electoral commission, lead candidate Cellou Diallo.

Africa

Guinea

Cellou Diallo (UFDG) and Alpha Condé (RPG) qualified for second round of presidential polls with 43% and 18% of vote respectively following 27 June elections. Diallo signed agreement with 3rd-placed Sidya Touré (UFR) 28 July. Delays in vote counting fuelled claims of fraud and tensions: police 5 July used teargas against protesters in Conakry; 20 candidates challenged poll results, but Supreme Court 20 July confirmed numbers. PM Doré 17 July said security forces foiled suspected plot to destabilise country, arrested suspects, gave no further details. President Konaté 1 July rehabilitated 16 officers accused of 1985 coup plot; 3 July promoted all soldiers between corporal and major by 1 rank, 14 July promoted regional governors.

Africa

Guinea

Presidential elections held 27 June after early month registration of 3mn voters and 18 June test votes in Côte d’Ivoire. Polls overall peaceful and turnout high but hampered by logistic problems, delays. Several candidates alleged widespread fraud; rejected by electoral commission. Candidate and former PM Cellou Dalein Diallo 29 June denounced irregularities in Conakry. ECOWAS called for calm after Supreme Court 30 June extended till 2 July deadline for electoral commission to announce provisional results. International observers generally satisfied with conduct of vote. 2nd round scheduled 11 July. 3 killed 24 June in pre-electoral clashes between URF and UDF supporters near Conakry after National Transition Council (NTC) President Serah Diallo 11 June predicted possible electoral violence. About 10 high-ranking army officers released 14 June after 4-day detention under embezzlement charges; detainees included Col Sanoh, former chief of staff and aide of ex-junta chief Camara. Army chief Gen Nouhou Thiam 16 June said army would not have immunity for involvement in Sept 2009 massacre. NTC 21 June launched national reconciliation project.

Africa

Guinea

Interim President Konaté 4 May signed decree putting new constitution into force and 6 May set presidential election date of 27 June; International Contact Group on Guinea 16 May warned against ethnic campaigning; 40-day electoral campaign started peacefully 17 May; 24 candidates include long-time opposition figure Alpha Condé (RPG), former PM Sidra Touré, Francois Fall, Celou Dalien Diallo and Lansana Koyaté. Konaté 28 May denied supporting RPG candidate Condé. Army chief col. Noukou Thiam 19 May guaranteed army’s neutrality and urged politicians to refrain from agitation. Azaro movement, led by Dadis Camara’s uncle Etienne Ouomo, allegedly threatened to prevent polls in Dadis’ home province (Guinée Forestière) unless Dadis allowed to return. ICC delegation in Conakry 24 May to investigate Sept 2009 violence.

Africa

Guinea

Interim President Konaté 21 Apr removed armed forces chief Col. Oumar Sanoh, perceived ally of former junta leader Dadis Camara; 22 Apr removed navy, air force heads. Followed 1 Apr arrest of several soldiers accused of inciting mutiny at army training camp in Kaleya. Interim PM Dore 28 Apr warned Dadis supporters were secretly planning his return to country. Interim govt 29 Apr restored power to Supreme Court. ECOWAS SR for security sector reform (SSR) in Guinea Lamine Cissé 14 Apr said process on track but overall reform would take “at least 2 years”. Govt minister Nawa Damey 12 Apr urged parties to end “unauthorised demonstrations” in Conakry; followed series of opposition protests in capital. Rights groups pushed for 27 June elections to go ahead as planned.

Africa

Guinea

Accepting electoral commission (CENI) proposal, transitional govt 7 March announced presidential elections would be held 27 June, with potential 2nd round 18 July. Interim President Konaté 14 March barred transitional govt members from standing, as with junta. CENI 10 March also confirmed census of Guineans abroad would resume 22 March after process suspended 28 Sept. Reports Konaté early month threatened military that moves to sabotage transition would be punished. 5 former ministers jailed by junta for embezzlement under President Conte released 4 March. Lawyers launched week-long strike 11 March to protest govt interference in narco-trafficking cases. Evidence emerged 23 aides of Lt. Aboubacar “Toumba” Diakité, arrested after Dec shooting, tortured in detention. ICTJ 3 March condemned junta’s investigation into 28 Sept massacre for under-representing violence, Human Rights Watch 4 March called for govt redress for victims. Mining company Rio Tinto announced new deal with Chinese state-backed metals group to develop the large Simandou iron ore project.

Africa

Guinea

PM Doré 15 Feb appointed 34-person interim govt comprising opposition, trade unionists and former junta members. Electoral commission 21 Feb proposed presidential polls for 27 June, welcomed by ECOWAS and Contact Group for Guinea 22 Feb. Doré called for elections support from donors. Govt inquiry into 28 Sept massacre issued report 2 Feb alleging Aboubacar “Toumba” Diakité, presidential guard member accused of shooting ex-junta leader Camara in Dec, was solely responsible for Sept killings. Diakité 5 Feb announced he had been following orders and was willing to face justice but not in Guinean court. ICC assessment mission arrived mid-month, 19 Feb announced Sept killings could amount to “crimes against humanity” and pledged to press forward with preliminary investigation. During mission, Doré stated Guinea’s judiciary was unfit to undertake prosecutions properly.

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