Authorities continued to stifle dissent, and opposition appeared increasingly divided. Authorities 1 March charged journalist Amadou Diouldé Diallo – detained late Feb after he criticised President Condé in radio broadcast in Jan – with “offence to the president”; NGO Reporters without Borders 17 March called for his immediate release. Court of Appeal in capital Conakry 4 March confirmed Dixinn Court’s early Feb decision to keep main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG)’s headquarters closed; offices were shut down in Oct 2020. UFDG 16 March said authorities same day prevented party leader Cellou Dalein Diallo from leaving country and seized his passport. Legal team of five opposition figures imprisoned for over four months on several charges, including “infringement of the fundamental interests of the nation” and “inciting violence”, 12 March lodged complaint with West African regional bloc ECOWAS Court of Justice, citing irregularities in judicial procedure. NGO Human Rights Watch 17 March said four opposition supporters died in detention between Nov 2020 and Jan 2021; NGO Amnesty International had disclosed similar findings in Feb. Meanwhile, Condé 1 March pardoned seven individuals imprisoned for “illegal gathering”, but hundreds of opposition supporters arrested around March 2020 constitutional referendum and Oct 2020 presidential election still in pre-trial detention. Condé next day received Mamadou Sylla, nominally leader of parliamentary opposition, and allowed him to visit imprisoned opponents; prominent figure of civil society coalition National Front for the Defence of the Constitution Oumar Sylla, alias Foniké Mengué, who has been detained in Conakry prison since Sept 2020, 11 March refused to meet him, accusing him of playing into Condé’s hands.

Authorities continued to stifle dissent, and took steps, along with Sierra Leone, to diffuse border tensions. Court in Dixinn, Conakry region, 3 Feb rejected complaint by Cellou Dalein Diallo, leader of main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), against security forces’ occupation of UFDG’s headquarters since Oct; Diallo 18 Feb appealed decision. Dixinn court 8 Feb sentenced blogger and opposition figure Mamadi Condé alias “Madic 100 Frontières”, arrested days after Oct presidential election, to five years in prison for spreading “threats, violence and insults” including messages “of a racist or xenophobic nature”; opposition denounced politically motivated trial. Meanwhile, ruling party Rally for the Guinean People (RPG) faced internal dissension. In press conference, newly formed group of dissatisfied RPG members 12 Feb criticised party leadership for “systematically abandoning” their supporters; days later, group’s leader Ibrahima Doumbouya alleged security forces had followed and threatened him, and vowed to call for protests. NGO Amnesty International 2 Feb said authorities must investigate deaths in detention of at least four people, including three UFDG members, in last two months, and end wave of arrests targeting at least 400 opposition and civil society members across country since Oct 2020 election. After Sierra Leone’s president late Jan accused Guinean troops of regularly entering border village of Yenga, both govts 16 Feb signed framework agreement for cooperation; 18 Feb reopened border, which Guinea had closed ahead of presidential election in Oct 2020. Health Minister Rémy Lamah 13 Feb declared new Ebola outbreak in first such resurgence since 2013-2016 epidemic that left over 2,500 people dead; govt next day held emergency strategy meeting.

Authorities continued to use legal means to suppress dissent, while international pressure to halt repression mounted. Court in Dixinn, Conakry region, 13 Jan sentenced Souleymane Condé and Youssouf Dioubaté, members of opposition and civil society coalition National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC), to one year in prison on charges of “production and dissemination of data likely to disrupt public order and safety”; FNDC next day said sentence aimed at silencing dissenting voices, denounced “dictatorial regime”. Mafanko court 28 Jan sentenced prominent FNDC leader Oumar Sylla, alias Foniké Mengué, to 11 months in prison on charges of “participation in an illegal gathering”. Meanwhile, crackdown on dissent drew international condemnation. U.S. 20 Jan expressed concern over govt’s “targeting of political opposition” and recent “death in detention of two opposition members”; move follows death in detention of opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea members Roger Bamba 17 Dec and Mamadou Oury Barry 16 Jan. EU 21 Jan called for independent investigation into Barry’s death. France 27 Jan called on govt to “shed light” on recent spate of arrests of opposition figures. Following Condé’s investiture in Dec, PM Kassory Fofana 15 Jan resigned along with govt; Condé immediately reinstated him.

President Condé was sworn in for controversial third term, and intercommunal violence erupted in south east. Condé 15 Dec took presidential oath for third term, called for unity and end to violence. Opposition remained divided and continued to lose momentum. Main opposition leader and presidential runner-up Cellou Dalein Diallo boycotted swearing-in ceremony and denounced it as “sham”, while several other opposition figures attended. Coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), at forefront of mobilisation against third term since 2019, same day failed to mobilise supporters for protest in capital Conakry against Condé’s alleged “constitutional coup”. Territorial administration and decentralisation Minister Bouréma Condé 11 Dec warned that govt would not tolerate any “breach of the peace”. Authorities 30 Dec reportedly prevented Diallo from leaving country to attend funeral of late Malian opposition leader Soumaïla Cissé. Meanwhile, international community increased pressure on govt to address human rights violations by security forces and stop muzzling opposition. U.S. embassy in Guinea 11 Dec urged authorities to build “more democratic society”. NGO Human Rights Watch 14 Dec called on govt to stop “relentless crackdown” on opposition, and NGO Amnesty International next day urged govt to investigate killings of opposition protesters and others around Oct presidential election. EU Commission 19 Dec called for independent investigation into 17 Dec death in custody of opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) youth leader, Roger Bamba, and release of all political prisoners. Intercommunal violence erupted in Macenta city (south east): ethnic Toma and Manian residents 26-27 Dec clashed over control of cheftaincy, reportedly leaving over 20 dead and dozens more wounded.

Govt launched wave of arrests as opposition continued to contest President Condé’s re-election. Oct presidential election runner-up Cellou Dalein Diallo and three other opposition candidates 1 Nov appealed against election results before Constitutional Court, citing irregularities including alleged ballot stuffing in Upper and Middle Guinea, harassment of opposition election observers and abuse of proxy voting; court 7 Nov rejected plea over “lack of evidence” and confirmed Condé’s re-election. Condé same day promised to end “disorder in Guinea”. In following days, police launched raids notably in pro-opposition neighbourhoods of capital Conakry, reportedly arresting scores, including Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea VP Ibrahima Chérif Bah and three other party officials 11-12 Nov; Diallo immediately accused Condé of seeking to “behead” his party. Condé 13 Nov denied “witch hunt” against opposition and expressed willingness for dialogue. Govt 22 Nov banned demonstrations, citing COVID-19 concerns. Security forces 25 Nov dispersed hundreds of Diallo supporters in Labé city (centre north), reportedly leaving several injured. Meanwhile, West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS 10 Nov congratulated Condé for his victory, while French President Macron 20 Nov refrained to do so, instead voicing concern over “grave” situation and deploring Condé amended constitution to “stay in power”.

Violence broke out following competing claims of victory in presidential election, leaving at least 21 dead, and could escalate amid post-electoral crisis. After 18 Oct vote went largely peacefully, opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) candidate Cellou Dalein Diallo next day claimed victory. Electoral commission immediately denounced announcement as “premature” and “void” and police 20 Oct blocked access to Diallo’s house in capital Conakry. In following days, violence flared across country. Notably, Diallo’s supporters 21 Oct clashed with security forces in Conakry, leaving at least three dead; same day clashed with incumbent President Condé’s supporters in southern Nzérékoré and Macenta cities, death toll unknown; unrest 23 Oct reportedly killed five in Conakry. Govt 22 Oct deployed troops in several areas. Electoral commission 24 Oct declared Condé winner with 59.5% of votes; Diallo immediately rejected results and vowed to take to street. Joint UN, African Union and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mission 25 Oct arrived in Conakry to mediate crisis; electoral commission VP and other commissioners same day denounced “massive fraud” and called for “resumption of election”. Ten opposition candidates 30 Oct called on supporters to resume demonstrations against Condé 3 Nov, same day vowed to challenge results before Constitutional Court. Prior to election day, ruling party Rally for the Guinean People (RPG) and UFDG supporters 1-4 Oct clashed in Siguiri and Kankan cities (both east), leaving several wounded. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet 7 Oct voiced concern over rising hate speech in lead-up to election and urged parties to refrain from stirring ethnic divisions. Meanwhile, attempted mutinies 16 Oct broke out in two military bases in Kindia city in west, leaving one commanding officer dead; in response, authorities reportedly killed around ten mutineers and arrested several others, and immediately imposed lockdown on Conakry’s Kaloum neighbourhood, where govt headquarters are located.

Tensions ran high over President Condé’s candidacy in Oct presidential election. Coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) 1 Sept decried Condé’s candidacy in presidential election scheduled for 18 Oct as “outrageous and conflict-inducing”. Police same day dispersed anti-Condé meeting in Tanéné village, Dubréka prefecture, near capital Conakry, reportedly wounding 12. Condé 2 Sept reiterated he will run for third term. Rifts widened within FNDC over whether to boycott or participate in election. After leader of main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) Cellou Dalein Diallo 6 Sept announced his candidacy, Union of Republican Forces President Sidya Touré 8 Sept said he did not support Diallo’s candidacy and would boycott elections alongside other opposition leaders; FNDC next day said opposition parties taking part in election would be automatically excluded from coalition. Constitutional Court 9 Sept declared eligibility of 12 presidential candidates including Condé, saying early 2020 constitutional reform reset his “term counter” to zero; Diallo’s candidacy also confirmed. After electoral commission 14 Sept published updated electoral register, opposition next day highlighted anomalies, including high number of registered voters in Condé’s stronghold of Kankan. Govt 16 Sept extended COVID-19 state of emergency for one month, banning gatherings of over 100 people, but campaigning kicked off 18 Sept. In address to supporters in Siguiri city (in Kankan region in east), Condé 22 Sept compared Oct vote to “warlike situation” in which all his “opponents have coalesced to fight [him]”. Police 29 Sept fired tear gas to disperse FNDC protesters in Conakry and reportedly arrested prominent FNDC leader Oumar Sylla, alias Foniké Mengué. Ruling party Rally for the Guinean People supporters 30 Sept reportedly attacked opposition UFDG campaign rally in Faranah city. Unidentified assailants same day threw stones at PM Fofana’s convoy near Dalaba city.

Political tensions deepened after ruling coalition nominated President Condé to run for re-election despite year-long protest movement against third term, raising risk of violent escalation ahead of vote scheduled for Oct. Democratic Coalition for Change in Continuity, comprising ruling party Rally for the Guinean People and its allies, 6 Aug nominated Condé to run for third term in presidential election scheduled for 18 Oct. Coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), which over past year has led mobilisation against Condé’s third term, immediately condemned move. Amid rising fears of political unrest, Muslim leaders 7 Aug urged all parties to favour peace over violence; capital Conakry Archbishop Vincent Koulibaly 15 Aug reiterated plea and called for dialogue between stakeholders. U.S. embassy 17 Aug called on all sides to “refrain from violence … and engage in dialogue” and urged authorities to investigate all protest-related deaths since 2019. UN, African Union and regional body Economic Community of West African States representatives mid-Aug reportedly met with senior officials from ruling party, FNDC and electoral commission in Conakry in attempt to mediate between parties. FNDC 24 Aug announced resumption of protests in early Sept. Meanwhile, several opposition figures, including former allies of Condé, announced plans to run for election, while opposition party Union of Democrats for the Renaissance of Guinea 27 Aug said it will not participate, citing anomalies in voter registration. Condé 31 Aug confirmed he will seek third term. Court in Conakry 27 Aug acquitted FNDC activist Oumar Sylla alias Foniké Mengué of charges of “dissemination of false information”; Sylla was arrested in April after he called for protests and accused govt of killings, torture and arbitrary detention.

Amid political tensions over President Condé’s potential bid for re-election, demonstration turned violent and series of protests over living conditions broke out in several cities. Regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), African Union and UN representatives 3 July met with govt delegation in capital Conakry in attempt to break persistent deadlock between ruling party and opposition on framework of presidential election planned for Oct. Condé 8 July stated willingness to hold inclusive political dialogue with opposition. Meanwhile, coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) resumed anti-Condé protests despite govt’s ban in context of COVID-19. Violent clashes between security forces and demonstrators 20 July left at least 20 injured in Conakry; FNDC accused authorities of using “weapons of war” against protesters, while govt blamed violence on “groups of hooligans”. FNDC 29 July called for new protest 6 Aug. NGOs Amnesty International and Tournons la Page (TLP) 17 July jointly called for immediate release of FNDC activists Oumar Sylla and Saikou Yaya Diallo, arrested respectively in April on charges of “diffusion of false information” and May on charges of “assault, violence, threats and public insults”, and accused authorities of trying “to strangle dissident voices” through “arbitrary detention and judicial persecution”; security forces 19 July reportedly summoned TLP coordinator to Conakry central police station. Protests over electricity cuts and lack of access to water turned violent: clashes between protesters and ruling party supporters left several injured in Siguiri city (north east) 14 July; security forces 21 July arrested 22 protesters in Kankan city (east) after govt reportedly deployed army there; following outcry from civil society, all 22 were released 29 July. Authorities mid-July eased COVID-19 curfew in Conakry and reopened air borders, also extended state of emergency into Aug.

Opposition stepped up pressure on President Condé ahead of presidential election, notably over allegations govt altered text of draft constitution after putting it to referendum in March. Coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) 2 June filed complaint with regional bloc West African Economic Community (ECOWAS) against govt’s attempt to amend electoral code through new electoral bill; however, Parliament 18 June started to discuss bill. After lawyer late May revealed significant differences between text of draft constitution subjected to referendum in March and constitution enacted by Condé in April, opposition and civil society early June accused govt of forgery; notably, enacted text stipulates that all election candidates must belong to political party (while draft implied possibility of independent bids), and that state-controlled Supreme Council of the Judiciary will appoint Constitutional Court judges (instead of more independent Association of the Magistrates, as foreseen in initial draft). Constitutional Court 12 June rejected request submitted 4 June by group of 15 MPs to suspend constitution; opposition immediately threatened to bring case before ECOWAS. FNDC 15 June announced resumption of anti-govt protests – suspended due to COVID-19 – 8 July. Under pressure, Condé 19 June sacked Justice Minister Mamadou Lamine Fofana.  Electoral commission same day proposed to hold presidential election 18 Oct. Amid COVID-19 pandemic, Condé 10 June denied reports on failing health; Parliament mid-June extended COVID-19 state of emergency for one month.