Negotiations between transition authorities and ousted PM Carlos Gomes Júnior’s African Party for the Independence of Guinea  Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) continued; ousted interim president Raimundo Pereira 28 Sept prevented from speaking as G-B representative to UNGA following ECOWAS complaint. Several PAIGC members, including former Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) Executive Sec Domingos Simões Pereira, announced intention to run against Gomes Júnior in PAIGC leadership elections at Jan 2013 party congress. CPLP 18 Sept said may suspend G-B from org; Cape-Verdean PM Neves 18 Sept said country ready to facilitate negotiations on impasse. UNODC 28 Sept said drug trafficking increasing.

Army Chief of Staff António Indjai 22 Aug said forces loyal to ousted PM Carlos Gomes Júnior preparing putsch sparking fears of counter-coup. Diplomatic standoff continued as Community of Portuguese Language Countries, FRENAGOLPE reiterated demands for return to constitutional order; Gomes Jr 3 Aug called for multinational force to be deployed under UN aegis to “avoid ECOWAS blunders”. U.S. Sec State Clinton 1 Aug said country collapsing, drug-trafficking increasing; transition PM Rui Duarte Barros 13 Aug denied claim. Transitional President Nhamadjo 26 Aug sacked Attorney General Edmundo Mendes, replaced him with Abdú Mané, 12 Aug recalled ambassadors to Portugal, France, Dakar, EU and UN. National Youth and Population Forum 16 Aug expressed concern over presence of ECOWAS troops (ECOMIB) in Bissau. UNIOGBIS head Joseph Mutaboba 23 Aug reiterated need for inclusive dialogue, return to constitutional order, said any request for multinational force must come from govt. FM Faustino Fudut Imbali said FAGB troops to participate in operations in Mali.

Angolan ambassador to UN 2 July said new elections might be acceptable but Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP) at 20 July summit maintained demand for resumption of interrupted electoral process, called for high-level discussion on Guinea-Bissau at UN, barred transitional authorities from attending summit. UNSC 30 July expressed concern over reported increase in drug trafficking since April coup, called for consensual, inclusive and nationally-owned process to restore constitutional order. Body of MP Roberto Cacheu, disappeared since 26 Dec attempted coup, found 28 July near Dingal; ousted PM Carlos Gomes Júnior denied involvement.

600-strong ECOWAS mission deployed as Angola 6-10 June withdrew MISSANG troops. Chief of staff António Indjai 6 June accused Angola of funding destabilisation attempts in G-B. Tension between ECOWAS and CPLP paralysed 7 June meeting of International Contact Group on G-B. Transition authorities excluded from 20 July CPLP meeting in Maputo, 21 June released Rear Admiral Bubo Na Tchuto arrested for failed 26 Dec 2011 coup.

Junta, ECOWAS, opposition parties 11 May agreed to nominate Serifo Nhamadjo to preside over 1-year transition; Rui Duarte Barros named PM 16 May. Majority party PAIGC and CPLP strongly criticised ECOWAS for “legitimising coup d’état”. ECOWAS 19 May started deploying 629-strong Burkinabè/ Nigerian/Senegalese security force. Angolan official 31 May said departure of MISSANG soldiers expected 2-10 June. UNSC 18 May imposed sanctions on coup leaders, demanded legitimate democratic govt. EU 31 May said does not recognise interim govt, broadened own list of sanctions targets.

Soldiers 12 April staged military coup, detained for over 2 weeks interim President Pereira and PM Gomes Júnior, widely expected to win presidential run-off originally scheduled 29 April; said acted to avert “Angolan aggression” by MISSANG forces stationed in Bissau. ECOWAS 27 April gave junta 72-hour ultimatum to accept 600-strong force, 12-month transition to civilian rule. CPLP 14 April demanded international intervention; Brazil said willing to lead stabilisation force. Following failure of negotiations with Chief of Staff António Indjai, ECOWAS 30 April imposed sanctions, threatened use of force to restore civilian rule. Portugal 15 April sent 2 navy ships, military plane to Cape Verde in preparation to evacuate nationals. Junta 16 April announced creation of transitional institutions to carry out 2-year roadmap to elections, proposed Parliament Speaker Serifo Nhamadjo as president; Nhamadjo rejected offer.

Elections held 18 March in calm, but opposition candidates denounced fraud and rejected results in advance of vote, sparking fears of instability. UNSG Ban 19 March praised peaceful election, but urged calm; international observers, ECOWAS, CPLP said poll free and fair. Fears of violence sparked by 18 March killing of former military intelligence chief Colonel Samba Djaló; ex-army Chief of Staff Zamora Induta fled to EU compound 22 March. Electoral commission 21 March said PM Carlos Gomes Júnior won first round with 49%, will face former President Yalá in 22 April run-off. 5 main challengers to Gomes, including Yalá, withdrew from race alleging large-scale fraud and irregularities; submitted evidence to electoral commission.

In controversial vote PAIGC 4 Feb named PM Carlos Gomes Júnior as candidate to contest election scheduled 18 March; 13 other candidates announced intention to run, including former President Yalá. EU 17 Feb announced elections observer mission.

Increased potential for political instability, civil, military unrest following death of President Sanhá 9 Jan, 26 Dec coup attempt. ECOWAS, UNSG Ban called for peaceful power transfer in accordance with constitution; despite initial rejection by some opposition parties, National Assembly president Raimundo Pereira appointed interim president, election scheduled for 18 March.

Renegade soldiers 26 Dec assaulted Bissau army HQ in attempt to remove army chief Indjai; Angolan MISSANG troops intervened to prevent abduction of PM Gomes Júnior; at least 2 killed. Navy chief Bubo na Tchuto, former army chief Watna na Lai and at least 30 others – including several politicians – accused of orchestrating attack, held in Mansoa military garrison. UNSG Ban 27 Dec condemned use of force to settle differences, AU 29 Dec appointed Burkinabé President Compaoré mediator. Govt, Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) and ECOWAS failed to reach security sector reform agreement; army chief said deployment of ECOWAS troops could plunge country into turmoil. Tensions continued between opposition and ruling PAIGC over President Sanha’s health, possible replacement by National Assembly President Raimundo Pereira, role of MISSANG troops. UNIOGBIS mandate extended until Feb 2013.