CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Soldiers killed or arrested several politicians 5, 8 June as part of alleged operation to foil coup. Presidential candidate and minister Baciro Dabo shot dead in home after reportedly resisting arrest; wife claims he was shot in sleep. Ex-defense minister Helder Proenca, driver and bodyguard also killed; former PM Faustino Fudut Imbali detained, beaten; Baciro’s brother arrested 8 June. In 11 June radio address, military chief José Zamora Induta denied rumours of his own assassination and that coup plot fabricated to eliminate opponents. EU, UN and AU condemned killings, called for public inquiries; ECOWAS dispatched contact mission to mediate. Presidential poll held 28 June without incident, results yet to be announced; turnout reportedly low.
Supreme court cleared 13 candidates to contest 28 June presidential polls, including favourites Malam Bacai Sanha (ruling PAIGC) and former presidents Kumba Yala of opposition PRS, and Henrique Rosa; 7 others rejected on technical grounds, incl ex-PM Fadul. Military commission charged with investigating March death of army chief Na Wai delivered confidential report to public prosecutor 13 May. Civilian commission into President Vieira’s death extended investigation due to lack of “serious leads”, called on international community to release promised $1m in support. ECOWAS announced $13.5m to support G-B SSR and economic stabilisation.
Former interim leader Mallam Bacai Sanha confirmed candidacy for ruling PAIGC in 28 June presidential elections; 3 ex-leaders, including Kumba Yala (PRS), Aristides Gomes (PRID) and Henrique Rosa also confirmed intention to stand. Military attacks on critics brought call from 20 opposition parties on govt to resign over failure to curb army excesses; prominent lawyer Pedro Infanda and former PM Francisco Jose Fadul reportedly tortured late March; 3 arrested for involvement in early March assassinations of army but amid concerns over credibility of G-B investigations.
Military chief Tagme na Wai and 5 officers killed in explosion in military HQ 1 March; President Vieira shot dead hours later by soldiers loyal to na Wai. Military announced constitution would be respected and National Assembly head Raimundo Pereira sworn in as interim president 3 March. Bissau reportedly calm. Parties 1 Apr announced elections for 28 June, 60 days beyond deadline prescribed in constitution to provide time for accrual of funds. José Zamora Induta appointed as interim army chief 14 March; connections to PM Gomes raised fears over continued military influence in politics. Gomes 16 March announced intention to contest next presidential polls. National and military commissions established to investigate killings; latter arrested 3 high-ranking soldiers late month.
Former Navy Chief Na Tchuto, implicated in Aug assassination attempt on President Vieira, failed to return from hiding in Gambia for trial as promised 13 Feb. Rwandan Ambassador Joseph Mutaboba appointed as UN envoy to G-B, effective 1 March.
Tension between President Vieira and military leadership escalated 4 Jan when acting presidential guard, the “Aguentas” militia, fired shots near convoy carrying army chief Tagme Na Wai. Military command said attack backed by interior ministry; govt claimed shots accidental. Aguentas guard subsequently disbanded. Newly installed PM Gomes 8 Jan appointed 31-person govt dominated by ruling PAICG members and allies, despite earlier pledge to reach out to opposition.
Authorities 2 Dec announced arrest of suspected mastermind of 23 Nov assassination attempt on President Vieira, navy Sergeant Alexandre Tchama Yala – nephew of opposition PRS leader Kumba Yala – outside country; 8 others reportedly detained. Govt 6 Dec banned all public demonstrations in wake of attack. At 2 Dec ECOWAS security meeting, neighbours pledged to provide technical assistance to G-B and called on UNSG Ban to increase funding for security training.
Optimism following peaceful 16 Nov parliamentary polls marred by 23 Nov attack on President Vieira’s home in apparent assassination attempt by renegade soldiers, killing 1 bodyguard; 6 arrested.AU, UNSC condemned attack, while Senegalese President Wade strengthened troops on border. Election, judged free and fair by international observers, returned PAIGC and PM Gomes to power with 67 seats.
UN USG Pascoe reported “uneasy calm” ahead of 16 Nov elections, while UNSC statement issued 15 Oct focused on threat posed by thriving drugs trade to future security. UNSG Ban earlier called for UN panel to consider targeted sanctions. Complaints of numerous omissions on voter rolls.
Controversy over potential military involvement in drug smuggling continued, with reports army officials sought to block investigation into July cocaine seizure at Bissau airport. EU evaluation mission 18 Sept said conditions ahead of 16 Nov legislative elections positive, despite fears for political stability following opposition PAIGC’s July withdrawal from consensus govt.
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