CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Presidential election runoff vote held peacefully 18 May with reported 78% voter turnout: PAIGC candidate José Mario Vaz declared winner 20 May with 61%; Chief of staff António Injai acknowledged results 21 May. Challenger Nuno Nabiam contested results, tried to negotiate positions in new regime, but recognised defeat 22 May. PAIGC and main challenger party PRS announced 22 May that they would work together for reconciliation. UNSC 29 May extended UNIOGBIS mandate until 30 Nov 2014.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Legislative elections and 1st round of presidential elections held peacefully 13 April, voter turnout almost 90%. Observer missions expressed satisfaction but raised concerns regarding high number of invalid votes. Electoral commission 16 April announced provisional results: PAIGC candidate José Mario Vaz secured 41% and will face Nuno Na- biam, who took 25% and reportedly enjoys support of military, during 18 May run-off. PAIGC secured 57-seat majority in National Assembly, meaning party president Domingos Simões Pereira likely next PM. Social Renovation Party (PRS) saw dramatic increase in representation, securing 41 seats.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Interim President Nhamadjo 3 March announced he would abide by transition agreements and not run for president. PAIGC finally chose former minister José Mario Vaz as presidential candidate, barring ousted PM Gomes Júnior from running; decision received negatively by pro-transition forces. Attorney General Abdou Mané called on Supreme Court to bar Vaz from race over ongoing investigation for embezzlement; Supreme Court rejected call, 15 March released list of vetted candidates approving 13 of 21 presidential hopefuls, including Vaz; 15 out of 22 parties authorised to run for legislative elections. Reports of violent attack on PRS politician 20 March and threats against magistrates; ECOWAS 30 March insisted people trying to derail electoral process would face harsh consequences.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Electoral census completed 8 Feb; legislative and presidential elections initially scheduled for March officially delayed to 13 April. ECOWAS chiefs of staff gathered in Bissau 17 Feb, discussed elections security, reform of armed forces. UNSC 26 Feb insisted on no further delay, threatened spoilers with targeted sanctions. PAIGC 9 Feb elected Domingos Simões Pereira as new party leader to replace Carlos Gomes Júnior. UNSC 26 Feb urged govt to abide by election plans, warning of sanctions against those opposing return to constitutional order.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Preparations for 16 March presidential elections hampered by insufficient resources. Political parties 5 Jan agreed to extend registration to end-Jan, but National Assembly failed to approve extension. Controversy within PAIGC over presidential candidate continued: potential candidate Braima Camara contested regional primaries results, forcing re-run: powerful anti-Camara front “Aliança”, created 21 Dec, 15 Jan refused to attend media- tion convened by President Nhamadjo, UN and AU. Former PM Gomes Júnior registered to vote in Cape Verde 28 Dec, prompting rumours of imminent return; 29 Jan asked UNSG Ban to guarantee personal security upon return to Bissau.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Electoral census began 1 Dec; govt 4 Dec announced 10-day extension beyond 21 Dec deadline as census going very slowly; National Assembly 10 Dec recommended suspending census but govt refused. President Nhamadjo 7 Dec met with political forces, agreed to renew transition beyond end-Dec until formation of new elected govt. UNSC 9 Dec condemned rights violations, encouraged ECOWAS to reinforce military mission in Bissau and pressed for elections, warning stakeholders of sanctions for deliberate obstruction of transition. UN SRSG Ramos-Horta 31 Dec said received green light from President Nhamadjo to start comprehensive national political dialogue. Former President Yalá 6 Dec announced run for presidency, 1 Jan announced withdrawal from race, political life.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

President Nhamadjo 15 Nov announced presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 24 Nov delayed to 16 March 2014. Ousted PAIGC PM and ex-presidential candidate Carlos Gomes Júnior called on UN and AU to ensure his safety upon his return. PAIGC again postponed overdue party congress, set for 7 Nov, in attempt to control deep internal divisions. Transport minister Orlando Viegas 5 Nov beaten up by men in army fatigues. At 26 Nov debate, UN SRSG Ramos-Horta called for quick progress on electoral preparations and strengthened ECOWAS force; ECOWAS representative mentioned planned deployment of 2 more police units.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

UN SRSG José Ramos-Horta 1 Oct said country nearly a failed state, insistence on ethnic balance within armed forces “not realistic”. ECOWAS 9 Oct announced it will provide $12mn of $19.4mn needed to finance upcoming general elections. Following 17 Oct meeting on elections with authorities, diplomats and political parties, Ramos-Horta confirmed polls likely to be delayed until early 2014; ECOWAS late Oct reiterated preference for elections before Dec 2013. Protesters 8 Oct attacked Nigerian embassy, lynched Nigerian national and called for departure of ECOWAS force following rumours of Nigerian residents’ involvement in human organ trafficking; Nigerian ambassador accused local media of spreading false rumours. Security forces enacted reprisals against protesters following day, 20 arrested.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

President Nhamadjo 3 Sept acknowledged Nov general elections might be delayed; UNSC 11 Sept insisted they be held “as soon as possible”. AU 18 Sept called for international support for elections, joined by Ivorian President Ouattara at UNGA 25 Sept. African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) 18 Sept set controversial and overdue pre-electoral party Congress for 7-10 Nov. High-profile economist Paulo Gomes declared independent run for presidential election. Amnesty bill for 12 April coup leaders failed to obtain clear majority at National Assembly 10 Sept.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Ahead of 24 Nov elections authorities 2 Aug announced plans for biometric cards scrapped, improved manual cards bearing photographic identification to be used instead. Ousted PM Carlos Gomes Júnior 8 Aug announced intention to contest Nov elections; govt spokesman Fernando Vaz 13 Aug insisted Gomes Júnior would not be provided with special security, Justice Minister Saido Baldé 19 Aug said Gomes Júnior would still face questioning over suspected role in Oct 2012 attempted counter-coup. Chef of staff António Injai 15 Aug insisted he would resign only if new president asked him to.

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