CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Guinea-Bissau

UN SRSG Ramos Horta 15 July said UNSG Ban would attend presidential swearing-in ceremony if elections go well, said biometric census, which President Nhamadjo favours, too costly and time-consuming. NGO coalition and trade unions 16 July declared oppositon to planned biometric census; Kumba Yala’s party PRS took similar stand 22 July. Detention of 2 Cape-Verdean police officers 20 July caused tensions between Bissau and Praia; Bissau released them 30 July. Govt 18 July approved$200m state budget.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Political impasse appeared to be resolved after National Assembly 29 May validated key revised transition documents. African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and Social Renovation Party (PRS) 31 May rejected cabinet repartition proposed by PM Barros, sides reached agreement following interim President Nhamadjo’s return from Nigeria 3 June. Nhamadjo and Barros 7 June appointed new 34-member cabinet: PAIGC/PRS received 8 seats; armed forces kept 3 representatives. Both Nhamadjo and Barros designated several cabinet members from Forum of Political Parties. National Assembly 12 June electedelectoral commission; Judge Augusto Mendes appointed commission president. President Nhamadjo 28 June announced legislative elections scheduled for 24 Nov.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Following initial collapse of talks over right to nominate new PM, African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and Social Renovation Party (PRS) 17 May reached memorandum of understanding over principles of cabinet reshuffle; PAIGC agreed to keep Rui Barros as PM while increasing its share of cabinet portfolios (8 ministries and 3 secretariats for PAIGC, 6 ministries to PRS, 2 to armed forces). UN SRSG Ramos Horta 9 May proposed new mandate for UNIOGBIS at UNSC, supporting “two-phase process towards full restoration of constitutional order and medium-term stability” and calling for increased international assistance; UNSC 22 May renewed mandate for 1 year. ECOWAS army chiefs met in Bissau 28 May to discuss “new role” for ECOMIB troops, mentioned possible increase in ECOMIB police presence. Transition president Serifo Nhamadjo reportedly diagnosed with cancer; former president Pereira Rosa 15 May died from illness.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

New York prosecutor 18 April unsealed charges against powerful armed forces Chief of Staff António Injai, sparking fears of yet more turmoil or deadlock in ongoing political transition. U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency 3 April arrested former navy chief Bubo na Tchuto and 4 others in waters off Cape Verde, having lured him in fake drug deal. Govt 19 April announced it will demand trials be held in G-B; army 20 April said Injai will turn himself over “if investigation proves his implication”. UN SRSG José Ramos-Horta 19 April called on authorities to remain calm.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Govt, civil society 8-15 March held talks to promote dialogue with military. Transitional president Nhamadjo 11 March threatened to resign in absence of political progress. Preparations for PAIGC congress continued: former PM Aristides Gomes 4 March announced imminent return; José Mario Vaz and Domingos Simoes Pereira, former exec sec of CPLP, declared candidacy 7 and 14 March respectively. Court 13 March began hearing of Captain Pansau N’Tchama for Oct 2012 attempted coup; N’Tchama said order to stage coup reportedly given by former chief of staff Zamora Induta with support from Angola and Gambia. UN SRSG Ramos-Horta 3-4 March met EU president and parliament, called for renewed EU assistance,13 March met with Nhamadjo. Youths in Colibuia in south clashed with Chinese timber company early March sparking media outrage, parliamentary debate, accusations against senior govt figures involved in selling permits.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Tense debate on revision of transition pact, including over creation of multi-party commission, which PAIGC-controlled Assembly considers violation of sovereignty.New UN SRSG Ramos-Horta 21 Feb said transition cannot go on indefinitely, elections should be held before Dec 2013; also expressed concern over living conditions for armed forces. UNSC 23 Feb extended UNIOGBIS mandate for 3 months until 30 April. Former finance minister José Mário Vaz, associate of ousted PM Gomes Junior, arrested 4 Feb and placed under investigation for misappropriation of funds.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and 3 small parties 17 Jan joined political accord to regulate transition process. Transitional President Nhamadjo 20 Jan said holding of elections in May 2013 “technically impossible”. UNSG Ban 1 Jan appointed former Timor-Leste president Ramos-Horta as new SRSG and head of UN peacekeeping office in G-B; Ramos-Horta 21 Jan acknowledged “difficulties” in mobilising international support for electoral process; 26 Jan said situation has evolved and polls could be held before end of year. At AU summit 16 Jan, AU SR in G-B OvÍdio Pequeno noted “positive evolution”; AU took “note” of ECOWAS request to lift suspension of G-B. PAIGC 14 Jan said will hold 8th congress in May; former CPLP Exec Sec Domingos Simões Pereira, former ministers Aristide Ocante da Silva and Braima Camara announced intention to run for party leadership . Ousted PM Gomes Júnior 23 Jan said he is “natural candidate” for presidential elections.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Joint assessment mission comprising AU, UN, EU, ECOWAS and Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) visited Bissau 16-21 Dec. UN SRSG Mutaboba 11 Dec briefed UNSC on progress since UNSG Ban’s 27 Nov report; UNSC 13 Dec expressed concern over lack of progress on return to constitutional order. Forum of Political Parties (FPP), a pro-transition structure including ruling Social Renovation Party (PRS), said appointment of Rui Néné as new president of electoral commission illegal, called for replacement of national assembly by transitional council; President Nhamadjo 17 Dec attempted mediation. Govt 11 Dec said elections planned for May 2013 should be delayed by a few years to provide time for necessary reforms. Alberto Nambeia appointed as president of PRS during party’s 11-14 Dec congress following withdrawal of former president Kumba Ialá from race. U.S. 21 Dec suspended G-B from African Growth and Opportunity Act preference scheme; U.S. ambassador 18 Dec accused military/ civilian officials of involvement in drug trade, encouraged CPLP/ EU to support transition process. ECOWAS 27 Dec expressed concern following late-month beatings of ex-Prosecutor General Edmundo Mendes and former Gabu region administrator José Carlos Monteiro.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Military spokesperson 5 Nov threatened to dissolve National Assembly following prolonged standoff between main parties following April coup. Parties 15 Nov confirmed minority Social Renovation Party (PRS) leader Sory Dialo as speaker marking resumption of Assembly operations; majority PAIGC content with vice-presidencies. Assembly mandate extended until 2013 elections. Security forces on alert 13 Nov following reports of “mercenary activity” in east/south of country, but alternative sources suspect cover-up for delivery of drugs. Sanha Clussé confirmed as Navy chief of staff 29 Nov, rather than Bubo na Tchuto,who is suspected of links to drug trade and involvement in several past coup attempts. ECOWAS 7 Nov committed $63 million to army reform. Ousted PM Gomes Júnior 8 Nov said would meet with transitional govt in Addis Ababa end-of-month to relaunch dialogue but transitional govt denied. International fact-finding mission due on 15 Nov cancelled over participants’ failure to agree “terms of reference”.

Africa

Guinea-Bissau

Ethnic Felupe soldiers 21 Oct attacked military barracks near Bissau airport in attempted coup; 6 killed. Govt accused former chief of staff Zamora Induta, ousted PM Carlos Júnior and Portuguese govt of involvement, 28 Oct requested formal explanation from Portugal. Gomes Júnior supporters denounced coup as “set-up”. Soldiers 27 Oct captured suspected coup leader Captain Pansau N’Tchamá, allegedly murdered 3 accomplices, increasing fears of backlash against ethnic Felupe. 2 leading politicians critical of transition authorities, Yancuba Djola Indjai and Silvestre Alves, badly beaten by military 22 Oct. Angolan FM 28 Oct formally requested AU peace and Security Council to intervene.

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