CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Increased UNMIL/UNOCI presence on Liberia/Côte d’Ivoire border ahead of 11 Oct presidential vote. Incumbent President Johnson-Sirleaf named Nobel Peace laureate 7 Oct, secured 44% in first round vote; 9 opposition parties including Congress for Democratic Change 15 Oct alleged fraud, 26 Oct called for removal of election commission chair as precondition for participation in 8 Nov run-off; chair resigned 30 Oct but CDC yet to confirm participation. Senator and former warlord Prince Johnson, placed 3rd in election, reportedly requested 30% control of govt in return for endorsement of Johnson-Sirleaf in run-off. Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire deployed 540 police officers, 280 gendarmes ahead of second round.
Concern over viability of elections continued; co-Chair of National Elections Commission 2 Sept said time, logistical challenges will prevent organisation of presidential, legislative polls in Oct. ECOWAS leaders 10 Sept met in Abuja to discuss Liberia-Côte d’Ivoire border security; authorities announced seizure of “worrisome” amount of arms, ammunition in border area, requested UN intensify monitoring of border zone. UNSC 17 Sept extended peacekeeping mission another year.
Govt 6 Aug signed agreement with Côte d’Ivoire for voluntary repatriation of Ivorian refugees from Liberia; authorities 10 Aug seized arms, ammunition near border.
Amid continued concerns over mercenary influx from Côte d’Ivoire, police 17 June seized major arms cache near Ivorian border. Presidential candidate Prince Johnson 1 June endorsed recommendations of Truth and Reconciliation Commission; includes recommendation that he be prosecuted for war crimes.
Security forces continued to intercept alleged mercenaries attempting to enter Liberia from Côte d’Ivoire, including 12 arrested 23 May. Ahead of Oct 2011 presidential elections, National Elections Commission (NEC) 9 May announced de-registration of 8 political parties for failure to meet basic requirements; 24 other parties approved for participation. NEC 24 May announced August referendum on lowering residency threshold for candidates.
Massive influx of refugees from Côte d’Ivoire continued; almost 150,000 registered since end-Nov start of crisis. Security forces 6 Apr arrested 95 armed men attempting to cross into Liberia, 11 Apr arrested alleged leader of mercenary recruitment ring. UN SRSG Ellen Løj 18 Apr warned of serious threat of contagion from Côte d’Ivoire.
UNHCR 24 March warned mounting violence in Côte d’Ivoire threatened stability in Liberia as estimated 90,000 refugees have fled across border since end-Nov start of crisis. UN SRSG Ellen Lój 16 March warned security situation becoming “more complex”, 24 March announced increased UNMIL activity to prevent cross-border violence. Ahead of Oct 2011 presidential elections, electoral commission chairman James Fromoyan 23 March denied accusations of corruption; opposition earlier alleged Fromoyan favours incumbent President Sirleaf.
Month saw arrival of estimated 15,000 refugees from Côte d’Ivoire (see Côte d’Ivoire); UNHCR figures indicate over 40,000 refugees registered in Liberia since end-Nov start of crisis. Ahead of Oct 2011 presidential, legislative polls, electoral commission announced 1.7 million registered to vote, fewer than anticipated 2.1 million.
Political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire continued to cause influx of refugees to Liberia (see Côte d’Ivoire). UNHCR 11 Jan said more than 25,000 in urgent need of protection with hundreds more arriving each day; 25 Jan said camp construction underway to house up to 18,000 refugees. President Sirleaf 25 Jan said situation did not threaten Liberia’s stability. Following Dec allegations that Ivorian ex-president Gbagbo was recruiting former militia in Liberia, reports 6 Jan said scores of fighters from former rebel groups of both countries were being recruited, crossing border. Voter registration commenced 10 Jan signifying start of build-up to October general elections.
Local media 1 March reported 26 Feb violence in Voinjama, northern Lofa County, had left 4 dead; police rejected clashes religious, claimed ethnic. Lofa senator 2 March said violence was premeditated. UN Special Representative Løj rejected accusations UNMIL biased in its response.
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