CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Burundi

Political crisis marked by violence, and no progress in peace talks since Palipehutu-FNL fled Bujumbura July. FNL demanded security guarantees and discussions with South African mediator Charles Nqakula on ceasefire implementation. 67 MPs sent letter to President Nkurunziza 17 August requesting dialogue with opposition, inclusive government: homes of 3 signatories and FRODEBU VP hit with grenades 19 August. Nkurunziza resumed opposition consultations late August, but no agreement and intra-party tensions on rise.

Africa

Burundi

Peace talks between Palipehutu-FNL and government suffered major setback. FNL delegation to MCVS (Joint Framework for the Monitoring and Follow-Up) fled Bujumbura 21-24 July and asked to broaden scope of negotiations to include specific guarantees regarding army integration and government positions. FNL reaffirmed commitment to ceasefire agreement but resumption of violence remains possibility from both sides. Political rifts continued: 16 July inauguration of cabinet boycotted by 40 opposition MPs and 17 ruling CNDD-FDD party legislators, claiming cabinet reshuffle not sufficient to overcome institutional crisis over removal of party chairman Hussein Radjabu.

Africa

Burundi

Peace process back on track after 9-month deadlock as President Nkurunziza and Palipehutu-FNL rebel leader Agathon Rwasa agreed 17 June to reactivate September 2006 deal. Government agreed to release FNL political prisoners; asked FNL to provide detailed list of members held, accelerate assembly of troops and identify assembly sites. Limited progress made during talks within Joint Framework for the Monitoring and Follow-Up (MCVS) of September 2006 ceasefire agreement. Political scene dominated by negotiations between government and opposition FRODEBU and sidelining of supporters of arrested ruling CNDD-FDD party chairman Hussein Radjabu. FRODEBU called for Nkurunziza resignation, attempted impeachment and joined boycott of new parliamentary session with Radjabu supporters and Leonard Nyangoma’s CNDD. Simultaneously, FRODEBU continued negotiations with government over integration of its ministers in cabinet.

Africa

Burundi

Talks between government and Palipehutu-FNL to resume early June on implementing September 2006 ceasefire agreement. Palipehutu-FNL leaders condition participation in talks on recognition as political party and their allocation of positions within government, parliament and army. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour called for strengthened judiciary in visit to Bujumbura 18-23 May. Government agreed in principle to transitional justice mechanisms for crimes during 12-year civil war: no amnesty for war crimes, genocide, crimes against humanity and other serious violations; national consultations to follow. Donors pledged $665 million to 3-year economic recovery plan 25 May.

Africa

Burundi

After March suspension of participation in joint ceasefire monitoring mechanism, Palipehutu-FNL rebels agreed to hold talks with government to address outstanding concerns, including FNL role in armed forces, government. Talks still pending at month end due to venue disagreement. Hussein Radjabu – ousted ruling CNDD-FDD party chairman – arrested on allegations of destabilising nation 27 April.

Africa

Burundi

Rifts deepened in ruling CNDD-FDD party as 22 MPs rallied behind Hussein Radjabu, boycotting their parliamentary party group over his dismissal as party chairman, although 6 later dropped out of boycott. Radjabu ally Imaculée Nahayo ousted as President of National Assembly; another ally, ex-Second Vice-President Marine Barampama, interrogated by intelligence services for 3 days on accusations of corruption. Radjabu sought to build coalition with FRODEBU and UPRONA to block CNDD-FDD legislation, but both voted with CNDD-FDD. Palipehutu-FNL rebels suspended their participation in Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism due to disagreements over talks agenda. Meeting between UN and government failed to agree on what mechanisms of transitional justice are needed. Government wants to control truth commission and process of granting amnesty.

Africa

Burundi

Release of 3 rebel FNL leaders into custody of South African peacekeepers 12 February satisfied final FNL condition to allow peace process to move forward. Disarmament and reintegration of FNL into armed forces to be overseen by Joint Verification Monitoring Mechanism which met 19 February: difficulties remain - government foresees only military integration, FNL military and political. Ruling CNDD-FDD party dismissed Chairman Hussein Radjabu at emergency congress 7 February following various scandals. Radjabu replaced by President Nkurunziza ally Jérémy Ngendakumana. CNDD-FDD now led by Ngendakumana but acting under “Council of the Wise”, headed by Nkurunziza. CNDD-FDD gave leadership of 3 national assembly committees to other parties (2 FRODEBU, 1 UPRONA) in positive signal for power sharing.

Africa

Burundi

Supreme Court acquitted former President Domitien Ndayizeye and 4 others of coup-plot charges, but sentenced Alain Mugabarabona, chairman of Forces Nationales de Libération (FNL-Icanzo) party and Tharcisse Ndayishimiye to 20 and 15 years respectively; seen as government strategy to save face as coup allegations generally accepted as unfounded. Possible internal rift in CNDD-FDD ruling party between President Nkurunziza and Chairman Hussein Radjabu over latter reportedly opposing release of coup suspects and freeing of 3 journalists on trial for reporting army involvement in coup plot. Party congress in February could discuss Radjabu’s potential dismissal. Joint Verification and Security Mechanism remained on hold as Palipehutu-FNL agreed to take part by 10 February if government freed jailed FNL members by 27 January; no release occurred.

Africa

Burundi

Implementation of September 2006 ceasefire between Palipehutu-FNL rebel group and government remained stalled. Government and FNL leaders met in Dar es Salaam 14-15 December but no formal agreement reached and FNL still excluded from amnesty provisions. Public hearing of alleged August coup plot trial started 13 December; Attorney- General claimed key Ugandan, Rwandan and Burundian figures tried to overthrow government to help Laurent Nkunda, renegade Congolese commander, conquer DR Congo from Burundi. Defence Minister Niyoyankana publicly questioned existence of plot. Prosecutor requested 3-years imprisonment for 3 journalists on charges of either questioning government’s involvement in staging coup or violating judicial secrecy. UN peacekeeping mission (ONUB) replaced with civilian UN Integrated Office in Burundi (BINUB) 1 January.

Africa

Burundi

September ceasefire between government and FNL rebels held, but implementation of agreement increasingly divisive. Law granting temporary immunity for rebel signatories adopted but FNL refused to join Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism while some rebels remain political prisoners. Government set up commissions to determine those entitled to demobilisation benefits but without FNL input - contrary to agreement. South African contingent of UN peacekeepers to stay on as first part of AU deployment to avoid security vacuum after UN departure mid-December. Pressure on media increased as 3 leading journalists arrested on questionable grounds.

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