CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
UNSC 2 March unanimously adopted Resolution 2270, drafted by U.S. and China, initiating further sanctions against DPRK, including: mandatory inspections of cargo to/from DPRK, blacklisting of ships, total arms embargo, ban on selling aviation/rocket fuels, embargoes on DPRK’s coal, iron ore, gold and rare earth exports. Philippines 5 March impounded blacklisted North Korean freighter; at least five other vessels denied entry at Russian and Chinese ports. ROK and U.S. 7 March began largest ever joint military exercises; DPRK called them “nuclear war moves”, threatened pre-emptive nuclear strike, fired short-range missiles off east coast 3, 21 and 29 March; 18 March medium-range ballistic missile. Leader Kim Jong-un 4 March said country’s nuclear warheads “need to be ready for use at any time”; 9 March that DPRK had miniaturised nuclear warheads to fit on ballistic missiles; 11 March asked scientists to continue nuclear tests; 10 March announced all inter-Korean agreements on economic cooperation and exchange projects nullified, vowed to liquidate South Korean assets in DPRK. UN envoy 17 March requested UNSC meeting on joint military exercises. Obama 16 March issued executive order formally enacting UN and U.S. sanctions; China said it opposes unilateral sanctions. Chinese and Russian FMs issued joint press statement saying they would not recognise DPRK as nuclear weapon state.
DPRK 7 Feb announced launch of earth observation satellite from Sohae launch site, violating UNSC ban on ballistic missile tests. Rocket used has potential range of 12,000km, U.S. reported twice payload of previous rocket test. Launch prompted international condemnation including from UNSC. U.S. 25 Feb submitted draft resolution to UNSC including “unprecedented sanctions” against DPRK, with vote scheduled for 1 March; reported China and U.S. agreed on strong and united international response to Pyongyang’s provocations. ROK 10 Feb ordered shutdown of Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), reporting intelligence suggesting 70% of DPRK’s KIC earnings funnelled into nuclear weapons program. DPRK retaliated expelling all ROK nationals, freezing ROK firms’ assets, announcing plans to put complex under military control; also vowed to disconnect its three hotlines with south. China 17 Feb proposed simultaneous denuclearisation talks and replacement of existing armistice agreement with peace treaty; ROK, U.S. said progress on denuclearisation must come first. U.S. intelligence chief 9 Feb reported DPRK has expanded Yongbyon nuclear enrichment facility and restarted plutonium production reactor, could obtain plutonium within weeks; also stated low yield of DPRK’s 6 Jan hydrogen bomb inconsistent with successful detonation of a thermal nuclear device. U.S. imposed new sanctions against DPRK, also stepped up military deployment to ROK. ROK and U.S. began talks on deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system; Chinese FM 12 Feb voiced concerns, saying THAAD exceeds defence needs of Korean Peninsula; U.S. stressed it does not aim to undermine Chinese security interests. ROK media 10 Feb reported DPRK had executed Army Chief of Staff Ri Yong-gil. ROK intelligence reported Kim Jong-un ordered intensification of preparations for terrorist attacks against ROK, urged lawmakers to pass new counter-terrorism bill.
DPRK state media 6 Jan announced successful test of hydrogen bomb in underground testing facility; leader Kim Jong-un 10 Jan said test “self-defensive step”, foreign ministry 15 Jan said nuclear tests would cease once U.S. concludes peace treaty with DPRK and halts U.S.-ROK joint military exercises. Technical experts estimate H-bomb claims inconsistent with results; with seismic readings showing blast smaller than typical H-bomb. U.S. and ROK condemned nuclear test as violation of UNSC resolutions and called for stronger response from China. ROK 7 Jan limited entry to Kaesong Industrial Complex and ceased cross-border cooperation, resumed anti-DPRK propaganda broadcasts in Demilitarised Zone (DMZ). U.S. House of Representatives 12 Jan passed legislation broadening sanctions against DPRK. ROK, Japan, and U.S. 6 Jan requested emergency meeting of UNSC, which announced it would begin work on new DPRK resolution. China and U.S. struggled to reach compromise on DPRK sanctions, but 27 Jan agreed on need for new UNSC resolution. U.S. late month reported intelligence suggesting increased activity at DPRK’s Sohae satellite launch facility. ROK reported DPRK drone crossed into its territory 13 Jan, prompting warning shots.
U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies 3 Dec issued report concluding from satellite photos that new work is being carried out on tunnel at DPRK’s Punggye-ri nuclear testing site. U.S., ROK and Japanese nuclear envoys met 4 Dec to discuss denuclearisation of peninsula. U.S. implemented new sanctions 8 Dec, targeting Strategic Rocket Force of Korean People’s Army, also six individuals, three Pyongyang-based shipping firms. Official DPRK news agency 10 Dec reported leader Kim Jong-un declared country has developed hydrogen bomb, currently preparing for tests; claim treated with scepticism. DPRK and ROK 11 Dec held vice-ministerial talks in DPRK, marking first inter-govt dialogue since Aug deal on defusing tension; meeting ended without joint statement. Former secretary of Korean Worker’s Party Choe Ryong Hae reportedly sent to work in mines for “ideological re-education”. DPRK state media reported top aide to Kim Jong-un and key negotiator with ROK Kim Yang Gon killed in traffic accident 29 Dec. UNGA 17 Dec adopted resolution condemning DPRK’s human rights record, further encouraging UNSC to refer country to International Criminal Court. UNSC 10 Dec again discussed DPRK rights situation, despite Chinese opposition.
Visiting South Korea 31 Oct-2 Nov, U.S. Sec Defence Carter called on DPRK to shrink and eventually abandon nuclear weapons program. Chinese premier Li, Japanese PM Abe, and ROK President Park met for trilateral summit in Seoul 1-2 Nov, first since 2012: released joint statement opposing development of nuclear weapons on Korean peninsula. ROK intelligence late Nov reported prominent aide to DPRK leader, Choe Ryong Hae, exiled to farm due to differences over policy; earlier in month reportedly said DPRK possibly has ties to Islamic State – Pyongyang rejected allegations. ROK intelligence also reported DPRK conducted failed test of submarine-launched ballistic missile late month. Seoul held live-ammunition exercise in NW islands near sea border with DPRK 23 Nov, prompting rebuke from Pyongyang. UNGA committee condemned human rights abuses in DPRK.
North Korean FM Ri Su-yong 1 Oct told UN that a peace treaty is urgently needed to prevent repeat of Aug 2015 escalation, denounced U.S. for conducting “aggressive and provocative large-scale joint military exercises” with ROK. Commander of U.S. Northern Command 7 Oct reportedly confirmed DPRK capability to launch nuclear weapon against U.S. homeland, said U.S. ready to defend itself. DPRK leader Kim Jong-un presided over large-scale military parade in commemoration of 70th anniversary of ruling Worker’s Party 10 Oct, attended by Chinese envoy; no rocket launch occurred despite Sept warnings. ROK National Intelligence Service 20 Oct reported DPRK is preparing for new nuclear test; also reported twenty senior members of DPRK regime had defected in 2015. ROK navy reportedly fired warning shots at DPRK patrol boat in Yellow Sea 25 Oct. DPRK media reported seventh Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party to be held May 2016, first since 1980.
DPRK’s National Aerospace Development Administration 14 Sept announced it is in final phases of building satellite that would be launched into orbit with long-range rocket 10 Oct, founding anniversary date of ruling party. Satellite’s purpose ostensibly for gathering data for weather forecasting, but widely seen as intercontinental ballistic missile in the making; U.S. and ROK said launch would violate UN resolutions against Pyongyang’s testing of ballistic missiles. Speaking at U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee 17 Sept, U.S. Asst Sec Defence said additional sanctions could be imposed in response to a DPRK missile launch; however U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies 24 Sept said launch unlikely as no preparation has been detected based on analysis of recent satellite photos. Commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific said he favoured deployment of U.S. anti-missile system in ROK (opposed by China and Russia). ROK 15 Sept deployed Aegis combat system-equipped destroyer in Sea of Japan to detect launch. Satellite imagery 18 Sept reportedly showed new activity at DPRK’s Punggye-ri underground nuclear test site. DPRK Atomic Energy Institute 15 Sept announced it restarted all nuclear facilities, upgrading its nuclear arsenal in “quality and quantity”; said DPRK ready to respond to U.S. hostility with “nuclear weapons any time”. ROK and U.S. 7 Sept launched three-day military exercise to prepare for potential biological attacks, 7-26 Sept conducted joint marine drills. China 16 Sept approved construction deal to build new bridge across Tumen River border with DPRK.
Tensions on peninsula escalated after three mines detonated south of Military Demarcation Line 4 Aug, seriously injuring two ROK soldiers; joint UN Command (UNC) and ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff investigation 10 Aug concluded mines purposefully planted by DPRK army (KPA) to kill ROK soldiers. In retaliation ROK 10 Aug resumed anti-DPRK broadcasting on loudspeakers at border, first time in eleven years. DPRK 14 Aug denied planting mines, 15 Aug threatened military strikes against loudspeakers; ROK continued broadcasts. DPRK and ROK exchanged artillery fire 20 Aug after apparent DPRK shelling into Demilitarized Zone (DMZ); no casualties or damage reported, DPRK denied firing shells. DPRK 20 Aug threatened unspecified military operations if ROK did not stop broadcasts, ordered troops into “semi-wartime alert”; as 22 Aug deadline approached ROK ordered evacuation of over 10,000 living close to DMZ. DPRK and ROK 22 Aug agreed to emergency talks, however Pyongyang subsequently deployed submarines and mobilised artillery units along border. DPRK and ROK 25 Aug reached agreement to end standoff, DPRK expressed regret over ROK soldiers wounded by landmines and agreed to end “semi state of war”; ROK agreed to halt anti-DPRK broadcasts. ROK and U.S. 12-28 Aug carried out joint and combined military drills in Pochŏn, Kyŏnggi province; UNC and Combined Forces Command 17 Aug began annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian multinational combined exercise, prompting DPRK threat of military retaliation; U.S. 21 Aug said exercise temporarily suspended due to ROK-DPRK tensions. IHS Jane’s defence consultancy reported analysis suggesting apparent upgrade to DPRK main nuclear facility, doubling its capacity to produce highly-enriched uranium.
Reports emerged 22 July DPRK has upgraded a launch tower to accommodate larger space launch vehicles; U.S. warned it against “destabilizing activities”. ROK and U.S. 29 June-9 July ran “Combined Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore Exercise” on west coast. Some ten DPRK soldiers crossed Military Demarcation Line (MDL) 11 July, returned north after ROK army fired warning shots. Amid ongoing severe drought UNICEF warned lives of many DPRK children at risk. Two ROK citizens who had been in China near DPRK border sentenced to life for espionage by DPRK court; ROK confirmed their citizenship, denied spying accusations.
U.S. and ROK 31 May-3 June conducted combined anti-submarine warfare (ASW) drill near Cheju Island, and another combined ASW exercise 8-12 June in the Philippine Sea; 29 June launched joint military logistics exercise. DPRK late month threatened U.S. with “tougher countermeasures”, following U.S. criticism of DPRK in annual global human rights report; 29 June said it is ready for conventional, nuclear or cyber wars with U.S. after U.S. sent guided missile submarine to Pusan and guided missile cruiser to Yokosuka Naval Base. ROK 3 June test-fired new 500km-range ballistic missile, capable of striking all DPRK territory. DPRK state media mid-June reported test-fire of short-range anti-ship missiles in Wŏnsan. ROK 26 June imposed financial sanctions on Taiwanese and Syrian arms corporations trading with DPRK. Pyongyang 9 June announced provincial, county and municipal people assembly elections will take place 19 July. DPRK 24 June sent high-ranking envoys to Russia, Cuba and Equatorial Guinea. ROK navy 30 June fired warning shots as DPRK patrol vessel crossed ROK waters.
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