CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Korean People’s Army (KPA) conducted ballistic tests throughout month: 2 Hwasŏng missiles fired 9 July 40km from demilitarised zone (DMZ); 2 more fired 13 July near Kaesŏng city; 100 artillery shells fired into Sea of Japan 14 July, only few hundred meters from DMZ. KPA 5 July conducted joint ground, naval, air, and air-defence exercises, simulating assault on ROK island. ROK and U.S. 16 July conducted 5-day naval exercise in ROK south-western sea despite DPRK protest; 21 July held 2-day trilateral exercise with Japan south of Cheju Island. DPRK launched “peace offensive”: state-media called for end to confrontation with ROK. ROK announced 3 billion won for NGO projects in DPRK, first use of state funds for NGOs in DPRK since 2010 imposition of sanctions. Delegation of 38 ROK officials and corporate representatives visited DPRK 15-22 July to conduct survey for potential ROK investment in Russia-DPRK railway link to DPRK north-eastern port city of Rajin. DPRK and Japan 1 July held talks, agreed on lifting Japanese sanctions in return for investigation into fate of Japanese nationals abducted by DPRK agents. Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering (APG) 18 July unanimously accepted DPRK as observer.
DPRK propaganda video released early June showed footage of launch of improved anti-ship missiles apparently identical to Russian-made KH-35 model. DPRK 26 June fired three projectiles from Wosan, landed in ocean. ROK Six- Party Talks negotiator Hwang Joon-kook met with U.S., Chinese and Russian counterparts in efforts to restart dialogue; DPRK newspaper Rondong Sinmun 16 June said nuclear arms programs not part of political negotiation. DPRK govt delegation led by FM Ri Su-yong 18 June met Syrian President Assad, discussed DPRK-Syria cooperation, economic development and reconstruction. U.S.-ROK talks held 16-17 June, discussed transfer of wartime operational control of ROK troops from Washington to Seoul, slated for Dec 2015. ROK PM nominee Moon Chang-keuk 24 Jun withdrew candidacy in light of alleged “pro-Japanese” comments in 2011; Chung Hong-won re- tained as PM despite 27 April attempted resignation following Sewol ferry disaster. ROK Navy 20 June conducted live-fire exercises near disputed Tokto/Takeshima islands despite protestation from Japan.
Joint U.S.-ROK investigation 9 May concluded 3 drones found late March near demilitarised zone from DPRK; DPRK state media decried accusations as “charade for confrontation”. Pyongyang 10 May renewed threat of nuclear testing. U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper 14 May met ROK Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin, reportedly discussed DPRK escalating rhetoric. Chinese FM Wang Yi visited ROK counterpart Yun Byung-se 26 May, agreed to increase cooperation on opposition to DPRK’s nuclear testing. DPRK fishing boats turned away with warning shots by ROK coastguard 20 May after crossing maritime border; DPRK military 22 May exchanged fire with South Korea warship across disputed sea border. Japanese and DPRK delegations finished talks 28 May in Stockholm aimed at lifting sanctions in return for investigation into abduction of Japanese citizens in 1970s and 1980s; missile and nuclear tests also on agenda; DPRK agreed to reopen investigation into abductions, both parties agreed to further meetings. High-rise apartment collapse in Pyongyang rumoured to have caused up to 500 deaths; DPRK media reported public apologies by senior officials. ROK President Park continued major govt shake-up in wake of Sewŏl ferry disaster.
2 drones of alleged DPRK origin found on ROK territory late March, sparking concerns over ROK air defence and DPRK intelligence gathering capabilities; ROK defence ministry responded unveiling 2 of its own drones. U.S. and ROK 18 April completed Foal Eagle joint and combined field exercises in ROK, also conducted amphibious landing training, large combined air exercise. ROK 4 April successfully flight-tested new ballistic missile capable of striking all DPRK territory. DPRK again conducted live-fire drill near disputed western sea border with ROK 29 April. DPRK’s newly elected Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) held first meeting 9 April; Kim Jong-un re-elected as first chairman of National Defence Commission (NDC); Ch’oe Ryong-hae elected vice chairman of NDC, position previously held by purged Chang Sŏng-t’aek. ROK President Park delivered speech in Germany 28 March laying out proposals to pave way towards peaceful unification of Korea; DPRK NDC spokesman later lashed out at Park’s speech. Beijing responded to DPRK’s 30 March threat of “new type of nuclear test” to further strengthen nuclear deterrence with public warning that China does not support DPRK’s “threat of a nuclear test”. Satellite imagery released late April indicating new activity at DPRK’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site.
Exchange of fire across disputed western sea border between ROK and DPRK 31 March after latter fired 500 artillery shells near Northern Limit Line (NLL) with 100 rounds falling south of NLL. ROK retuned 300 rounds into disputed waters. Earlier in month DPRK launched rockets and missiles into Sea of Japan, including 9 short-range missiles 3-4 March, 46 rockets 22-23 March, 2 medium-range Nodong missiles 26 March. Nodong launches, first since 2009, occurred hours after trilateral U.S.-Japan-ROK summit. UNSC condemned launches, ROK urged DPRK to refrain from provocative actions. DPRK 30 March threatened to carry out “new form of nuclear test”. DPRK leader Kim Jong-un 9 March won first Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) elections under his rule with 100% of vote. Chinese FM Wang Yi 8 March called for resumption of six-party talks, declared “red line” on DPRK saying war or chaos on peninsula is unacceptable. Chinese nuclear envoy 17 March visited DPRK, first visit by Chinese official since Dec purge of Chang Sŏng-t’aek. U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi 25 March disagreed over when to resume six-party talks. Japan, DPRK resumed high-level talks over normalisation of relations, abductions of Japanese citizens 30-31 March. UN DPRK sanctions committee 11 March reported DPRK circumventing sanctions.
DPRK and ROK held first high-level talks in 7 years 12-14 Feb in P’anmunjŏm border village; reaffirmed plans for family reunions that took place 20-25 Feb in DPRK’s Mt. Kŭmgang resort. U.S. Sec State Kerry visited Seoul 13-14 Feb to discuss DPRK policies, during Beijing visit urged China to exert greater pressure on DPRK; China reiterated commitment to denuclearisation “through peaceful dialogue”. U.S. and ROK 24 Feb commenced annual multinational simulation exercise Key Resolve and large-scale joint and combined field exercises Foal Eagle; DPRK 27 Feb fired 4 short-range missiles into sea off east coast. UN Commission of Inquiry 17 Feb released report on DPRK human rights abuses, in letter to Kim Jung-un warned him of possible prosecution at ICC; DPRK and China rejected report findings. Satellite images showed DPRK has expanded primary its Sŏhae Satellite Launching Station creating potential ability to launch larger rockets.
Amid moves to consolidate Kim Jong-un’s control following Dec execution of his uncle Chang Sŏng-t’aek, reports emerged Chang’s extended family also executed in Dec. Kim’s New Year message referred to uncle’s purge, economy, called for improved inter-Korean relations. DPRK 16 Jan referred to annual U.S.-ROK combined military drills planned Feb-April as prelude to war, 17 Jan called on ROK to end “all acts of provocation and slander”. ROK President Park 18 Jan ordered “airtight security” against DPRK. DPRK 24 Jan sent open letter to ROK calling for reconciliation and end to hostile acts; ROK asked DPRK to prove sincerity through action. DPRK 24 Jan accepted ROK’s proposal to reschedule cancelled family reunions, but failed to respond to ROK’s proposed dates of 17-22 Feb. ROK completed live-fire exercise on 2 north-western islands without incident despite DPRK warnings. ROK 15 Jan approved $400,000 in private humanitarian assistance to DPRK. U.S. announced sending 800 more troops, 40 battle tanks and armoured vehicles to ROK in Feb. After months of negotiations ROK agreed to pay $866mn for maintenance of U.S. troops in ROK as part of new Burden Sharing Agreement, 5.8% increase over 2013.
Chang Sŏng-t’aek, uncle by marriage and political guardian of Kim Jong-un, stripped of positions of power 8 Dec, arrested and executed 12 Dec; 2 of his close allies executed mid- Nov. International community expressed concern over stability of DPRK following execution; S Korean President Park said purge is part of “reign of terror” that could inflame tensions on peninsula. DPRK 3 Dec threatened to build up nuclear deterrence capabilities. ROK expressed “regret and anger” over Japanese PM Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine 26 Dec (see China/Japan). ROK, U.S. and UK held previously planned combined naval drills around Korean Peninsula 8-9 Dec. ROK 10 Dec decided to increase maritime combat capabilities against “possible provocation”’ from DPRK. ROK intelligence official 17 Dec said there are signs DPRK is preparing to conduct 4th nuclear test and long-range missile test. U.S. tourist and Korean War veteran detained during Oct visit released 7 Dec. Delegations from N and S Korea met to discuss normalisation and expansion of Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC), which hosted visit by delegations from G-20 countries and international financial institutions 19 Dec, part of ROK effort to “internationalise” KIC. U.S. basketball star Dennis Rodman 19-23 Dec made 3rd visit to DPRK in 2013 to train N Korean players. Russia tightened sanctions against DPRK 2 Dec.
Continued diplomacy on resumption of six- party talks aimed at denuclearisation of DPRK: Chinese envoy for Korean Peninsula affairs Wu Dawei visited Pyongyang 4 Nov. ROK chief nuclear negotiator Cho Tae-yong 7 Nov held talks with U.S. and Japanese counterparts in Washington, parties agreed DPRK must take concrete steps to dismantle atomic program for talks to resume; Cho later met with Wu in Beijing. U.S. DPRK envoy Glyn Davies travelled to Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo. Chinese state councillor Yang Jiechi visited Seoul 19-22 Nov, together with ROK Director of National Security reiterated joint commitment to ease tensions in peninsula. Signs of possible shift in Seoul’s stance towards DPRK, with ROK unification minister 1 Nov saying govt considers lifting “24 May sanctions’’ preventing economic relations between Koreas; President Park said in interview she is open to talks with DPRK leader Kim Jong-un. Pyongyang issued aggressive statements towards ROK presidential office on third anniversary of its shelling of ROK’s Yŏnp’yŏng Island 23 Nov. IAEA 28 Nov said it was “seriously concerned” about activity observed at Yongbyon nuclear complex consistent with effort to restart reactor.
U.S. and ROK 2 Oct signed tailored deterrence agreement during annual Security Consultative Meeting reaffirming military alliance; DPRK reacted putting army on “high alert”. Seoul 1 Oct staged largest military parade in decades, displaying recently deployed ballistic and cruise missiles; President Park spoke of “very grave” threat from DPRK. ROK, U.S. and Japan 10-11 Oct held combined naval drill; Pyongyang criticised as highly provocative. At “1.5-track diplomacy” meeting between DPRK officials and U.S. experts in London 1-2 Oct, Pyongyang stressed desire to return to six-party talks. China and ROK 21 Oct announced renewed bilateral cooperation amid growing nuclear threats from Pyongyang. Pyongyang 22 Oct claimed U.S. openly threatening DPRK, warned it could react with war. ROK and DPRK 23 Oct signed follow-up deal covering operation of Kaesong Industrial Complex. DPRK Foreign Ministry 24 Oct said country will not take steps towards nuclear disarmament. Increased activity reported at main underground nuclear test site Punggye-ri in NE. Pyongyang 25 Oct released 6 S Korean detainees.
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