CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
“Track 1.5” talks on DPRK nuclear issues commenced 18 Sept in Beijing with attendance of DPRK First Vice FM Kim Kye-gwan and chief DPRK 6-Party Talks negotiator Ri Yong-ho. ROK and U.S. sent former officials and academics, withholding official participation pending indication of DPRK’s intent to denuclearise. Kim Kye-gwan, DPRK’s first vice FM and chief nuclear negotiator, called for resumption of talks without preconditions. 31 Aug satellite imagery appeared to indicate 5MW(e) nuclear reactor in Yŏngbyŏn has been restarted. Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC) reopened 16 Sept after 5 months’ inactivity, including 90 of 123 S Korean firms’ factories, some 32,000 N Koreans reportedly returning to work; negotiations continue over access, procedures. Pyongyang suddenly cancelled scheduled DPRK-ROK family reunion, first in 3 years, only 4 days before it was to occur late Sept. U.S. basketball star Dennis Rodman visited DPRK for second time 3-7 Sept, spent 2 days with leader Kim Jong-un and family, other senior leaders. UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) allocated some $2.1m aid following reports of heavy flood damage in DPRK.
DPRK and ROK 14 Aug agreed on steps to reopen Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC), closed for over 4 months, after Pyongyang offered to resume talks 7 Aug in response to ultimatum from Seoul. Under 5-point accord, sides will meet again “in the near future” to form new joint committee to work out additional details, set timeline. Pyongyang and Seoul 23 Aug agreed to hold reunions of separated families 25-30 Sept, first since Oct 2010; also agreed to hold video conference reunions in Oct, more reunions in Nov. Pyongyang 20 Aug proposed talks to reopen Mt. Kŭmgang tourism project, closed since July 2008. Seoul 27 Aug proposed talks be held 2 Oct after conclusion of family visit and Ch’usŏk holiday; Pyongyang has not yet accepted. ROK-U.S. carried out combined and multinational military exercise Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) 19-30 Aug, involving 30,000 U.S. and 50,000 ROK troops, 7 United Nations Command (UNC) countries. DPRK cancelled planned visit by U.S envoy. Exports from China to North Korea decreased 13.6% in first half of 2013 compared with same period 2012.
Panama 16 July announced it had detained DPRK ship carrying concealed weapons from Cuba. Cuban govt said cargo was “obsolete defensive armaments” being sent to DPRK for repair. Shipment violates UN sanctions that ban almost all DPRK arms imports and all DPRK exports of arms and military services. DPRK and ROK held further talks on reopening Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC) but failed to reach agreement. More than 170 South Koreans 12 July travelled to KIC to inspect facilities and retrieve raw materials and goods. DPRK leader Kim Jong-un held talks with visiting Chinese VP Li Yuanchao 25 July. Pyongyang 27 July staged large-scale military parade on 60th anniversary of Korean War Armistice. ROK 16 July accused DPRK of cyber- attacks on ROK govt and private websites. Anonymous South Korean official 30 June revealed DPRK is deploying improved artillery along DMZ with ROK.
DPRK and ROK held working-level talks in Panmunjŏm border village 9 June, but high-level talks planned for 12-13 June aimed at normalising operations in Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC) and resuming inter-Korean tourism at Mt. Kŭmgang called off 11 June after disagreement over delegations. DPRK 7 June restored Red Cross hotline with ROK, but cut it 12 June. DPRK National Defence Commission 16 June proposed high-level talks with U.S. over regional security, seniorU.S. official 17 June said talks will happen after DPRK proves willingness to commit to denuclearisation. U.S.-Korea Institute 3 June released report stating satellite imagery proves DPRK Yŏngbyŏn reactor could be restarted in 2-3 months. DPRK deputy FM 19 June met Chinese vice FM in Beijing, signalled willingness to restart talks. DPRK’s UN ambassador 21 June said United Nations Command must be disbanded and DPRK will not give up nuclear weapons as long as U.S. nuclear threat exists, demanded UN end sanctions. ROK and U.S. 3-5 June held talks to extend pact on civil nuclear power in ROK, ROK asked for possibility of producing own nuclear fuel; no agreement. ROK, U.S. and Japan Defence Ministers 1 June met in Singapore, issued joint statement underlining DPRK nuclear threat, confirming defence cooperation.
DPRK special envoy Vice Marshal Ch’oe Ryong-hae visited China 22-25 May; Chinese media reported DPRK agreed to return to nuclear disarmament talks, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said denuclearised Korean peninsula is goal of all parties. DPRK fired projectiles into Sea of Japan 18-21 May, believed to be testing new long-range artillery rocket, sparking heavy criticism though not violating UNSC resolutions. ROK President Park met with U.S. President Obama 7 May; both expressed shared interest in strengthening bilateral alliance and tailored deterrence against DPRK, said open to talks. USS Nimitz carrier group visited ROK early May to participate in combined exercises with ROK navy. UN Panel of Experts 12 May said sanctions have not halted DPRK nuclear program, but have “choked off significant funding”. State-owned Bank of China 7 May closed accounts of DPRK Foreign Trade Bank, consistent with UNSCR 2096. DPRK 12 May appointed General Chang Jong-nam as new defence minister, General Kim Kyok-sik as chief of general staff. DPRK and ROK remain at impasse over resuming operations at Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC); last 7 ROK managers returned to South 3 May after Seoul delivered $13 million to settle accounts for unpaid wages, taxes. DPRK 28 May invited managers to join talks to reopen complex, ROK rejected offer. UN appointed 3 special investigators to investigate alleged rights violations in DPRK. DPRK court sentenced Korean American Kenneth Bae to 15 years’ labour for crimes against state.
DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly 1 April passed legislation declaring DPRK to be “full-fledged nuclear weapons state”. Pyongyang 3 April suspended operations at ROK-DPRK jointly-operated Kaesŏng Industrial Complex (KIC), in continued war rhetoric 5 April notified foreign diplomatic missions in Pyongyang that it “would be difficult to guarantee security after 10 April”. Amid celebrations for former leader Kim Il-sung’s birthday, DPRK 15 April warned strike on ROK “would start without notice”. DPRK General Department of Atomic Energy 2 April announced plan to restart Yŏngbyŏn nuclear reactor. DPRK continued military manoeuvres and exercises, 21 April moved 2 missile launchers to east coast. ROK Unification Ministry 25 April proposed talks with DPRK on KIC, warning refusal would entail “grave measures”; DPRK 26 April refused talks, calling offer “deceptive”, leading ROK to withdraw all remaining South Koreans except 7 to “negotiate unpaid wages and fees”. U.S. Sec State Kerry 14 April said DPRK denuclearisation necessary as first step towards “peace talks”; DPRK 18 April declared suspension of UN sanctions, permanent end to U.S.-ROK combined military exercises as condition for reopening of negotiations, 22 April demanded recognition as “nuclear weapons state”. ROK President Park 11 April urged DPRK to join inter-Korean dialogue. DPRK 16 April requested food aid from Mongolia.
UNSC 7 March unanimously passed resolution 2094 strengthening sanctions on DPRK in response to 12 Feb nuclear test; hours before UNSC vote, DPRK vowed to carry out pre-emptive nuclear strike on HQ of invaders, implying United Nations Command (UNC) HQ in Seoul. DPRK military and govt said would no longer be bound by 1953 Korean War armistice as of 11 March. DPRK 11 March cut hotline with UN Military Armistice Commission and Red Cross hotline with South Korea, 26 March ordered all its rocket and long-range artillery units to be combatready and targeting U.S. bases in region and U.S. territory. U.S. Sec Defence Hagel 15 March declared U.S. to deploy 14 more missile defence interceptors in Alaska in view of DPRK threats. DPRK conducted large-scale joint military exercise while U.S. and ROK 1 March-30 April conducting large-scale joint and combined field exercise Foal Eagle and UNC combined simulation exercise Key Resolve 11-21 March. U.S. and ROK 22 March signed agreement defining roles for retaliation against DPRK military provocations. U.S. deployed stealth bomber aircraft over ROK. DPRK 27 March cut off remaining military hotline with ROK, 30 March said it was entering “state of war” with ROK, may shut down Kaesong industrial park. At rare Central Committee meeting 31 March leader Kim Jung-un announced “new line” to increase nuclear arsenal and develop economy simultaneously; meeting declared nuclear weapons are non-negotiable, DPRK’s nuclear status should be written into law. ROK President Park 1 April said any provocation from DPRK should be met with “strong response”. UN HRC 21 March approved formal investigation into DPRK for crimes against humanity. Former U.S. National Basketball Association player Dennis Rodman 28 Feb-2 March visited DPRK, met Kim Jong-un, sparking heavy criticism within U.S.
DPRK 12 Feb conducted 3rd nuclear test at Punggye-ri underground test site, in reaction to 22 Jan UNSC Resolution 2087 condemning its 12 Dec satellite launch. DPRK media described test as “high-level, safe, perfect nuclear test with no negative environmental impact”. UNSC held emergency talks, UNSG Ban condemned test as “deeply destabilising”. U.S. President Obama said test was threat and provocation, U.S. would lead world in responding. Russia, China condemned test, 22 Feb said would oppose foreign military intervention in North Korea. ROK declared emergency mode, raised security alert level, 7 Feb said would launch pre-emptive strike if there were clear signs of imminent nuclear attack from DPRK, 14 Feb unveiled cruise missile allegedly capable of hitting office of DPRK leaders; President-elect Park declared ROK “will not tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea”. EU imposed financial sanctions. DPRK 6 Feb threatened to close inter-Korean Kaesŏng Industrial Complex, turn into military base, 10 Feb test-fired short-range ballistic missile. DPRK ambassador to UN Conference on Disarmament 19 Feb threatened South Korea with “final destruction”. ROK, U.S. 4-6 Feb conducted combined naval exercise; ROK 14 Feb began large-scale live fire military drills, including combined aerial exercise with U.S.; ROK, U.S. 19 Feb began combined anti-submarine warfare exercise; DPRK condemned drill as “explicit act of invasion”. DPRK 23 Feb said U.S. forces would “meet a miserable destruction” if scheduled military drills with ROK used to attack DPRK. ROK’s Park urged DPRK to abandon its nuclear ambitions, stop wasting scarce resources on arms.
UNSC 22 Jan unanimously passed resolution condemning DPRK’s 12 Dec satellite launch and expanding existing sanctions against Pyongyang; DPRK condemned resolution, announced plans to carry out further rocket launches and nuclear test; threatened to attack ROK if they participated in new UN sanctions. ROK analysis of launch debris found in Yellow Sea showed many components of launcher produced in DPRK. ROK 30 Jan launched satellite into space. Kim Jong-un’s New Year message broadcast on state TV; called for building economic power, strong military, end to hostile relationship with ROK. UNHCHR Navi Pillay 14 Jan called for international investigation into DPRK human rights violations. ROK reported number of defectors from DPRK dropped by nearly half in 2012. Delegation led by former U.S. governor Bill Richardson and including Google chief Eric Schmidt visited DPRK 7-10 Jan; Washington criticised timing of visit.
DPRK 12 Dec successfully launched Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 North Korea satellite into orbit, violating UNSC Resolutions 1718, 1874, which prohibit DPRK from launches using ballistic missile technology. Launch condemned by U.S., UNSC, Russia; China expressed regret, urged sides to refrain from actions that could worsen relations. Satellite reportedly malfunctioning. In ROK, Conservative Saenuri Party’s Park Kŭn-hye won 19 Dec presidential elections; Park seeks to re-engage with DPRK. DPRK continued to purge officials, reshuffle senior military officers; mid-Dec demoted vice marshal Ch’oi Ryong-hae. First anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death commemorated 16 Dec in mass rally in Pyongyang.
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