CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
DPRK 1 Dec announced planned launch of long- range rocket carrying a satellite between 10 and 22 Dec; follows speculation that country planning missile test in violation of UNSC resolutions. Pyongyang 22 Nov threatened to shell Yŏnp’yŏng island ahead of ROK military drill on 2-yr anniversary of DPRK attack there. DPRK vessels crossed NLL at least twice in late October. U.S. President Obama during 20 Nov speech in Myanmar called for DPRK to negotiate denuclearisation. ROK activists behind Oct launch of balloons with propaganda leaflets into DPRK 15 Nov announced they would halt balloon launches until after election. DPRK media late month reported messages from Kim Jong-un read out at senior meetings of police and judiciary calling for elimination of rebellious people attempting to “destroy our unity”. FAO/ WFP special report on DPRK food security reported improved harvests this year, but approx 207,000 tons shortfall predicted next year. Media reported that in May ROK seized DPRK-made graphite cylinders bound for Syria in Chinese freighter in Pusan; parts reportedly can be used as missile components. IAEA director general 29 Nov reported DPRK had made progress in construction of an atomic reactor.
Tensions mounted on Korean peninsula against backdrop of rising nationalism in the region. ROK 7 Oct announced deal with U.S. to extend ballistic missile system range; Pyongyang responded with claim it has missiles that could reach U.S. mainland. DPRK 19 Oct threatened military action against ROK if S Korean rights activists dropped propaganda leaflets in DPRK; activists carried out airdrop of 120,000 leaflets 22 Oct despite ROK police attempts to block them, and released further 50,000 leaflets 29 Oct. Seoul commenced annual Hoguk joint military exercise 25 Oct, involving 240,000 personnel; ROK satellite launch, planned for late Oct, postponed till Nov. DPRK Army Vice-Minister Kim Chol reportedly executed for misbehaviour during official mourning period after Kim Jong-Il’s death.
Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) held rare second annual session 25 Sept but no announcement of anticipated reform measures. Govt 12 Sept rejected ROK offer of emergency food, medicines, despite predictions food insecurity to worsen following Aug floods which killed some 300. ROK patrol boats 21 Sept fired warning shots at N Korean fishing vessels in contested waters in Yellow Sea. Russia 18 Sept agreed to write off 90% of N Korea’s debt, invest in country. Iraq 21 Sept refused permission to N Korean plane bound for Syria to pass through its airspace on suspicion it could be carrying weapons.
High profile meetings held between China, DPRK officials: Kim Jong-un 2 Aug met with International Dept of Chinese Communist Party Central Committee director to discuss strengthening relations; DPRK delegation led by Chang Sŏng-t’aek, Kim Jong-un’s uncle, visited China mid-Aug, reached agreement on 3 special economic zones in DPRK. ROK, U.S. held combined military exercise 20-31 Aug; Kim Jong-un 25 Aug said had stud- ied, signed full-scale “counter-attack operational plan” in case “enemies fly even a bit of a spark” into DPRK territory. DPRK 3 Aug officially requested flood aid from UN. DPRK, Japan talks 29-30 Aug to discuss repatriation of Japanese soldiers’ remains, “various pending issues” ended without progress. DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly head Kim Yong-nam late Aug attended Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran.
DPRK 20 July said it was re-examining its nuclear program due to U.S. hostility. Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho relieved of post in ruling Korean Workers’ Party 15 July; replaced by Hyon Yong-chol. Kim Jong-un appointed 17 July as marshal of army.
DPRK 9 June accused ROK of attempting to provoke govt into conducting nuclear test, 17 June criticised 14 June comments by U.S. Secretary of State Clinton urging Kim Jong-un to chart different course to father Kim Jong- il. Clinton, U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta 14 June hosted talks with ROK counterparts; U.S. President Obama 18 June extended sanctions against DPRK. U.S., Japan, South Korea 21 June began joint naval exercises near China, Korean Peninsula; DPRK called drills “reckless”, said they could lead to nuclear war, called use of its flag during drills “a grave provocative act”. ROK 28 June announced plans to sign treaty with Japan to encourage sharing of military data on DPRK. 29 June report by UN Panel of Experts said DPRK continuing to actively defy UN sanction resolutions.
DPRK 22 May vowed to strengthen nuclear deterrent after U.S. threatened further sanctions if regime fails to abandon nuclear program. U.S., EU, ROK, Japan 1 May submitted list of some 40 DPRK companies to UNSC sanctions committee for possible blacklisting; 3 DPRK state-owned companies added to list 2 May. Japan vice-FM Hamada 2 May urged DPRK against further provocation; UNSC P5 urged DPRK to refrain from nuclear tests. DPRK officials 17 May demanded payment for release of Chinese fishing boats, 29 crew, 22 May released fishermen. Pictures purportedly showing signs of activity at new North Korea rocket launch facilities published 22 May. DPRK revised Constitution published 30 May proclaimed status as nuclear-armed state.
Amid signs of increasing belligerence, DPRK 13 April attempted but failed to launch Unha-3 rocket to coincide with 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung; UNSC condemned attempt, warned of further action if nuclear test carried out; U.S. cancelled planned food aid and 20 April revealed suspicions China sold missile launcher technology to DPRK; DPRK 17 April announced it is no longer bound by U.S. “leap day” agreement. Kim Jong-un 15 April gave first public speech, reaffirmed military priorities; KPA Supreme Command 23 April announced intentions to initiate “special actions” to destroy ROK, president, mass media firms. KWP 21 April held talks with Chinese Communist Party international department chief, President Hu. China State Councillor Dai Bingguo praised Kim Jong-un, vowed to deepen ties with DPRK. Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun 18 April reported that China had ceased deportations of DPRK defectors.
DPRK 16 March announced plans to launch satellite by long-range rocket next month; UNSG Ban urged DPRK to reconsider launch, China expressed concerns, Japan said it will intercept rocket if necessary; U.S. 28 March confirmed suspension of food aid planned in “leap day” agreement. IAEA 16 March received invite from DPRK to visit.
DPRK 29 Feb agreed to moratorium on nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, to allow nuclear inspectors to visit Yongbyon nuclear complex, U.S. to send food aid. U.S. Ambassador Glyn Davies and DPRK First Vice FM Kim Kye-gwan met 23-24 Feb, discussed food aid, nuclear program; no agreement for further 6-party talks. 20 Feb ROK conducted live-fire military drills from islands near disputed sea boundary with DPRK despite Pyongyang’s threat of retaliation. DPRK 16 Feb commemorated Kim Jong-il’s 70th birthday. U.S., ROK 27 Feb began Key Resolve joint military exercises; DPRK threatened “sacred war” in response.
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