CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
DPRK Joint New Year’s Editorial emphasised unity, support for succession, adherence to “military first” policy line following 30 Dec warning it would not soften position on ROK govt. Top U.S., ROK, Japan officials 17 Jan met to discuss resuming stalled 6-party talks. Kim Jong-nam, brother of new leader Kim Jong-un, reportedly described succession as “joke”, predicted new regime’s collapse.
State television 19 Dec announced death 2 days earlier of Kim Jong-il; youngest son Kim Jong-un declared “great successor”. Funeral took place 28 Dec. Prior to announcement of Kim Jong-il’s death, DPRK 19 Dec reportedly test-fired short-range missile on eastern coast. UNSG Ban expressed sympathy to N Korean people, said UN would continue providing assistance. China endorsed new leader, invited him to visit China. U.S. 20 Dec laid out conditions for improved relations with DPRK, stated hopes for progress on denuclearisation, said U.S. continuing with discussions on resuming food aid. U.S. Congress 14 Dec passed legislation introducing sanctions against countries or companies that help DPRK pursue nuclear, chemical or biological weapons or missile programs.
ROK 23 Nov conducted large air and sea drills near Yŏnp’yŏng Island, attacked by DPRK Nov 2010; DPRK Supreme Command 24 Nov threatened to turn Seoul’s presidential palace into “sea of fire”. ROK taking some steps to improve inter-Korean relations: approved resumption of medical assistance to North via WHO, delivered children’s vaccines to North, announced suspension of balloon-drops of propaganda leaflets; unification minister Yu U-ik 5 Nov told UNSG Ban Seoul would consider resumption of humanitarian aid through UN. U.S. expressed concern after DPRK 10 Nov announced it would soon start operating new nuclear reactor. Foreign Ministry 30 Nov said DPRK making rapid progress on work to enrich uranium and build light-water nuclear power plant. ROK’s top nuclear envoy 15 Nov held talks with new U.S. envoy Glyn Davies in Vienna to discuss efforts to re-open 6-party talks; Seoul, Japan and U.S. demanding Pyongyang suspend uranium enrichment before talks can resume. Media mid-Nov reported DPRK conducting missile engine static tests, tested new anti-ship missile; has assisted Iran in developing nuclear bomb.
Efforts to re-start 6-party talks continue with several track I and II meetings. U.S and DPRK officials met in Geneva 24-25 Oct with goal of setting nuclear disarmament negotiations back on track, improving relationship. 6 parties attended track II NE Asia cooperation dialogue in Hawaii; DPRK delegation attended track II meeting at University of Georgia, U.S. late Oct. U.S. and DPRK officials met in Bangkok 18 Oct, agreed to resume searches for remains of U.S. military personnel killed in Korean War. ROK President Lee 13 Oct met U.S. President Obama in Washington, 18 Oct met Japanese PM Noda in Seoul, agreed to coordinate N Korea policy. ROK Defence Minister Kim Kwang-jin 19 Oct told lawmakers ROK would fly into DPRK airspace to conduct ground attacks in case of DPRK provocations. U.S. Sec Defence Panetta travelled to Seoul for Security Consultative Meeting 28 Oct, agreed to complete U.S.-ROK combined counter-provocation plan this year. UN SG for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos 24 Oct visited N Korea, insisted aid should not be politicised. Kim Jong-il and China VP Li Keqiang met in N Korea 25 Oct. Delegation of ROK Conference of Religion for Peace visited Pyongyang late Sept. Chair of ROK’s Grand National Party Hong Joon-pyo 30 Sept visited Kaesŏng Industrial Complex; Unification Ministry agreed to re-start infrastructure construction. Annual joint, combined U.S-ROK “Hoguk” military exercise began 27 Oct.
Increased speculation over possible resumption of long-stalled 6-party talks following recent interactions between N and S Korea. Nuclear envoys from DPRK and ROK 21 Sept met in Beijing for 2nd time in 2 months to discuss talks; unable to reach agreement on return to talks, but said meeting useful. Chinese FM Yang Jiechi 19 Sept called for resumption of talks, however negotiators from ROK, U.S, Japan, Russia, absent from 19 Sept Beijing forum intended to pave way for resumption. In sign of possible reconciliation, South replaced its minister of unification early Sept. IAEA General Conference 19-24 Sept unanimously adopted resolution urging DPRK not to carry out further nuclear tests. Reports emerged N Korea late Aug conducted large scale military exercise off west coast. ROK intelligence service 16 Sept detained man for allegedly plotting to assassinate ROK anti-DPRK activist.
Following meeting between Kim Jong-il and Russian President Medvedev in Siberia 24 Aug, Kremlin announced DPRK ready to resume 6-party talks without preconditions, consider moratorium on nuclear weapons tests and production. In wake of June-July floods ROK Unification Ministry 10 Aug said ROK Red Cross offered to send $4.8mn food to DPRK, but still no official ROK food aid; Seoul closely monitoring NGO-provided aid. U.S. mid-Aug offered DPRK $900,000 in emergency flood aid, still reviewing request for food aid. Russia 19 Aug made first delivery of expected 50,000 tons of grain to DPRK. ROK military 10 Aug returned fire after North Korean artillery shells fell in waters near ROK’s Yŏnp’yŏng Island; DPRK 11 Aug denied shells were fired. U.S., ROK 16-26 Aug held combined military drill; DPRK called exercise “undisguised military threat”. U.S. and DPRK mid-Aug reportedly discussed possible resumption of search for remains of U.S. military personnel killed during Korean War. German media 24 Aug reported DPRK earlier this year supplied Iran with computer software facilitating building of nuclear weapons.
Following talks between senior U.S. and North Korean officials in New York 28-29 July, Pyongyang 1 Aug called for “early” resumption of 6-Party nuclear talks; U.S. said DPRK must show commitment to disarmament. N and S Korean representatives to ASEAN Regional Forum held informal talks 22 July, announced mutual commitment to restarting 6-Party talks. Controversy continues over severity of food insecurity in DPRK. EU 4 July announced it would deliver €10 mn in food aid to North; Seoul continues to express scepticism of WFP, EU, NGO assessments of DPRK food security; U.S. says it is continuing to monitor situation. DPRK military late June reportedly fortifying positions where it launched artillery attack against South Nov 2010, and late July seen preparing for large-scale joint exercise in area. 30 North Korean officials reportedly executed or killed through staged car accidents recently. Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang visited Pyongyang 10-13 July to celebrate 50th anniversary of Treaty of Friendship with DPRK; met with Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un, parliament head Kim Yong-nam. Inter-Korean trade declined by 14% June 2010-May 2011; follows economic sanctions imposed by Seoul after March 2010 Ch’ŏnan sinking. France 11 July announced it will open a cultural office in Pyongyang, but clarified not normalising diplomatic relations with North.
ROK 15 June established new North West Islands Command to enhance defence capabilities near NLL, announced it will deploy 36 attack helicopters to islands in 2012. Media reported ROK army deployed ballistic missiles near DMZ with ability to strike Pyongyang. DPRK flight-tested surface-to-air missile off west coast early June. North severed military communication lines with South 30 May, announced it would no longer deal with Lee Myung-bak govt. Two days later, DPRK claimed ROK officials tried to bribe DPRK officials during secret inter-Korean meeting in Beijing 9 May, “begged for a summit.” ROK acknowledged meeting, denied other claims. ROK continues to insist on apology for 2010 attacks, but 19 June announced it would no longer make this a prerequisite for restarting 6-Party Talks. ROK nuclear negotiator met with Chinese, Russian, U.S. officials early June, but resumption of talks remains distant. U.S. House of Representatives 15 June voted to bar food aid to North. European Commission officials visited mid June to assess food aid needs. Reports emerged of food shortages within army. Delegations from North and South met 29 June to discuss Mt. Kŭmgang tourism project, but talks broke down. North threatened “sacred war” against South for “hostile slogans” by ROK military near DMZ.
Leaked UN report 14 May claimed Iran and N Korea have swapped ballistic missile technology, transferred through China, in violation of UN sanctions; Beijing denied, 17 May blocked release of report indefinitely. U.S. human rights envoy Robert King 24 May started 7-day visit to evaluate possible resumption of food aid, suspended since 2009; senior WFP official in Pyongyang 19 May urged S Korea to resume food aid, Seoul rejected, claimed food crisis “exaggerated” by regime. Amnesty International 3 May said N Korea likely holds some 200,000 prisoners in camps with “inhuman” conditions. S Korea 3 May staged live-fire exercises on Paengnyŏng and Yeonpyeong islands; first such drills since N Korea’s Dec 2010 shelling of Yŏnp’yŏng. U.S., S Korea said likely to hold combined military exercise on Paengnyŏng in July. China 23 May confirmed N Korean leader Kim Jong-Il made late month visit, ostensibly to study China’s economic model, court ongoing economic and political support from Beijing. S Korean President Lee Myung-Bak 9 May said willing to invite N Korea to 2012 international nuclear summit if Pyongyang first commits to giving up nuclear weapons. Seoul 3 May claimed North behind Apr cyber attack on S Korean bank Nonghyup; Pyongyang denied.
In latest war rhetoric following Nov 2010 shelling of Yŏnp’yŏng island, Pyongyang 22 Apr threatened to fire at sites in South where NGOs 26 Apr launched balloons with propaganda to North, 24 Apr threatened to “wipe out“ U.S., S Korea. Warning came amid diplomatic push by S Korea, U.S. and China to jump-start 6-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter 26 Apr led delegation of former international leaders The Elders on 3-day visit to N Korea to discuss non-proliferation, humanitarian food aid. Carter 28 Apr accused U.S., S Korea of human rights violations by withholding food aid to North; U.S officials 30 Apr denied accusation, said N Korean govt responsible for plight of its people. U.S. 19 Apr imposed sanctions on N Korea’s Tongbang Bank (Bank of East Land) over transactions with blacklisted N Korean arms maker alleged to have exported torpedoes to Iran. N Korea’s state news agency 14 Apr reported govt preparing to indict American detained on unspecified charges, saying suspect already “admitted his crime”; U.S. confirmed his detention, called for release on “humanitarian grounds”. WFP 29 Apr announced emergency food program to feed estimated 3.5 million people.
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