CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Korean Peninsula

North-South Korean relations deteriorated further after investigators 20 May announced N. Korean torpedo caused March sinking of S. Korean ship despite NK denials. S.Korean President Lee Myung-bak 20 May pledged “stern action” against NK; S. Korea 23 May stated intention to take case to UNSC. S. Korea 24 May froze trade with NK, resumed propaganda broadcasts on DMZ; NK threatened to fire artillery at loud speakers. NK 25 May severed all ties with S. Korea; NK 27 May scrapped 2004 accord aimed at preventing accidental naval clashes with S. Korea. UNSG Ban 26 May expressed confidence UNSC would “take measures appropriate to the gravity of the situation”. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao 30 May during regional summit, warned of need to diffuse tension but stopped short of condemning NK over attack. NK leader Kim Jong-il 5 May visited China; met President Hu Jintao; Chinese media 7 May reported NK prepared to negotiate over nuclear weapons. UN OCHA 18 May stated intention to send team to NK to assess aid situation.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

South Korean, international investigators 16 Apr said March sinking of S Korean patrol boat, which killed 46, most likely caused by external explosion; N Korea 17 Apr denied involvement. S Korean FM Yu Myung-hwan 18 Apr said that if NK involved, case would be taken to Security Council and NK nuclear talks would be unlikely to resume. NK 23 Apr seized 5 tourist properties owned by S Koreans in NK Mount Kumgang; followed Seoul suspension of tours to area after NK military 2008 shooting of S Korean tourist. 2 NK alleged spies arrested 20 Apr in S Korea for plotting murder of high-ranking NK defector. U.S. citizen sentenced 7 Apr to 8 years labour for entering NK illegally.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

South Korean naval ship exploded off maritime border with N Korea 26 March; 46 of 104 crew still missing. Cause unconfirmed, but S Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae Young 29 March announced they had not ruled out NK involvement; S Korean President Lee Myung-bak 30 March ordered military on alert for any “moves” by NK. Following Feb bilateral talks with Pyongyang, newly appointed Chinese representative for Koreas Wu Dawei 4 March announced 6 Party Talks expected to resume before July. Unnamed NK official 13 March said Pyongyang intends to submit proposal for denuclearisation at next 6 Party Talks session, citing early April; no confirmation from Pyongyang. UN Human Rights Council in 15 March report condemned NK’s human rights record, calling it “one big prison”. Pak Nam-gi, senior NK official blamed for controversial Dec 2009 currency reform, reportedly executed 18 March. Fears of imminent famine continue. NK 22 March announced U.S. citizen Aijalon Mahli Gomes would face trial for entering country illegally; 4th U.S. citizen charged of illegal entry in past year.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

In highest ranking UN visit since 2004, UN USG Pascoe travelled to NK 9-12 Feb, reported plans for further discussions, said Pyongyang would rejoin 6 Party Talks if sanctions lifted and peace talks to formally end Korean war commenced. Chinese envoy Wang Jiarui visited 9 Feb to press for resumption of NK nuclear programme negotiations; NK PM Kim Yong Il returned visit 23 Feb, meeting with President Hu Jintao. But NK 20 Feb vowed to bolster nuclear force unless U.S. dropped “hostile” policy. NK PM Kim Yong Il made rare public apology in Jan for Dec currency revaluation that sparked social unrest. U.S. human rights campaigner Robert Park returned home 7 Feb after 43 days of detention for entering NK illegally. NK 20 Feb declared 4 areas near disputed sea border naval firing zones in preparation for naval exercise, 22 Feb proposed military talks with S Korea in March.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

N Korean National Defence Commission 15 Jan threatened “holy war” in response to S Korean contingency plan for NK emergency or collapse. NK fired artillery into sea near disputed Northern Limit Line 27-29 Jan after 26 Jan announcing 2-month shipping ban in area, said action part of routine artillery drill; SK returned fire 27 Jan; no reported casualties, damage. S Korea defence minister 20 Jan said S Korea would launch pre-emptive strike against N Korea if it saw clear indications of impending nuclear attack; N Korea 24 Jan called statement an “open declaration of war”. Heightened rhetoric came despite apparently conciliatory moves by NK during month: New Year’s Day message calling for end of hostility with U.S.; 11 Jan NK Foreign Ministry statement of willingness to build confidence with U.S., conduct new peace treaty talks to replace Korean War Armistice; 19 Jan meeting with S Korean officials to discuss revitalising jointly-operated industrial estate in Kaesong, north of DMZ. UN human rights investigator 15 Jan said NK using increasingly harsh punishment against citizens attempting to leave. NK 28 Jan said it had arrested 2nd U.S. citizen in 2 months for illegally entering country. Several reports from inside NK suggested Dec currency reform causing runaway infl worsening food shortages.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

U.S. envoy Bosworth 8 Dec held 3-day trip to Pyongyang focused on resuming nuclear dialogue. Both sides declared satisfaction with results; N Korea said talks would continue to “narrow remaining differences”, but remains unclear when talks will resume. NK 1 Dec began currency reform, eliminating private cash savings and paralysing markets, and raising fears of reduced access to food. NK 9 Dec acknowledged serious H1N1 flu outbreak, closed border to Chinese tourists. Tens of thousands rallied in Pyongyang 2 Jan in support of govt policies and new diplomatic outreach to U.S.. Thai authorities intercepted NK arms shipment at Bangkok airport 12 Dec, over violation of UNSCR 1874. Following Nov naval clash with S Korea, NK officials 21 Dec declared disputed sea border “peacetime naval firing zone”, warned S Korean ships to avoid area. Unnamed U.S. citizen apparently seeking entry to NK to highlight rights abuses arrested at border 24 Dec.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

Tensions with S Korea increased, after North and S Korean naval ships 10 Nov exchanged fire in disputed waters off western peninsula coast in first naval clash in over 7 years. 1 NK officer killed, 3 wounded; NK threatened “merciless military measures”. U.S. President Obama travelled to Seoul 18 Nov, announced U.S. to send high-level diplomatic mission to Pyongyang 8 Dec for direct talks. U.S.-sponsored UNSC Resolution 19 Nov condemned arbitrary detention and torture in NK. Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie late month visited Pyongyang, said bilateral relationship “sealed in blood”

Asia

Korean Peninsula

N Korea issued further mix of threats and overtures to international community, hinted at willingness to resume 6-party talks. In letter to UNSC, reported 4 Sept in state press, Pyongyang announced country in “concluding stages” of uranium enrichment, denounced UNSC sanctions. Following early month tour of regional states (excluding NK) by U.S. envoy Stephen Bosworth, U.S. announced open to dialogue but as path towards, not alternative to, 6-party talks. During visit by Chinese delegation NK Leader Kim Jong-il 18 Sept said open to “bilateral and multilateral” talks. Pyongyang 1 Sept restored traffic crossings to S Korean factories, but relations strained after NK 7 Sept conducted emergency dam release killing 6 S Koreans; Seoul condemned lack of warning.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

Pyongyang increased diplomatic outreach to U.S. and South Korea, but continued to resist return to 6-party talks. Ex-U.S. President Clinton arrived in Pyongyang early month, securing release of 2 U.S. journalists jailed in June. NK late month invited U.S. envoy Stephen Bosworth for talks in further effort to strike up bilateral dialogue with U.S.. Chairwoman of S Korea’s Hyundai Group, North’s biggest investor, travelled to NK 10 Aug to negotiate release of detained employee and re-opening of joint business enterprises. NK 18 Aug announced re-opening of inter-Korean economic and reconciliation projects, including resumption of family reunions, 21 Aug sent high-ranking delegation to S Korea to commemorate death of ex-president Kim Dae-jung, first formal delegation in 2 years; NK coast guard late month released 2 S Korean fishermen captured 30 July. Seoul called for further talks on reducing military build-up along border. NK 1 Sept announced foreign ministry delegation dispatched to Beijing. Tone shifted late month following start of annual S Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, prompting threat from Pyongyang to strike against “any provocation”. Seoul 25 Aug launched unsuccessful satellite rocket; NK announced it was “closely watching” international response. Moscow 26 Aug announced it had deployed an anti-missile defence system close to NK border.

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