CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Pyongyang 2 July conducted coastal defence exercise, fired 4 surface-to-ship cruise missiles off east coast; 4 July test fired 7 ballistic missiles, condemned by UNSC 6 July. UNSC 16 July imposed sanctions against 5 companies, imposed travel ban and assets freeze on 5 NK citizens, banned trade to NK of 2 weapons-related items. U.S. Sec State Clinton 23 July said possible package of aid, diplomatic relations available in return for “full and verifiable denuclearisation”. NK 27 July insisted no return to 6-party talks, but open to “specific and reserved form of dialogue”. U.S., NK reportedly began negotiations 19 July over fate of 2 U.S. journalists jailed by NK in June.
UNSC 12 June unanimously adopted Resolution 1874, condemned NK’s May nuclear test, toughened sanctions to include inspection of NK ships, total NK arms sales ban, financial measures. NK 13 June responded with threat to “weaponise” remaining plutonium stocks, pursue enrichment and take military action against a blockade. At 16 June with S Korean President Lee, U.S. President Obama said would “vigorously” pursue end to NK’s nuclear programme. Pyongyang 17 June threatened “thousandfold” military retaliation if sovereignty infringed. U.S. 30 June applied asset freeze, trading ban to 2 companies aiding NK nuclear programme; 1 July tracked NK ship suspected of transporting weapons to Burma; ship returned to NK. EarlyJune reports indicated Kim Jong-il selected youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as successor, reportedly visited China mid-June. 2 U.S. journalists found guilty 8 June of “hostile acts”, illegal entry into NK; sentenced to 12 years hard labour.
Pyongyang 25 May announced “successful” underground nuclear test, in contravention of UNSC resolution 1718. Prompted strong criticism from South Korea, U.S., Japan, Russia; Beijing 25 May announced “resolutely opposed” to test; emergency UNSC meeting unanimously condemned Washington 26 May called for “strong UNSC resolution with concrete measures to curtail NK’s nuclear and missile activities”. In further development, NK launched short-range coastal defence and air defence missiles 25- 29 May. S Korea 26 May upgraded participation in U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) from observer status to full membership; NK warned step tantamount to declaration of war, declared 27 May no longer bound by 1953 armistice and could not guarantee safety of ships near west sea boundary; S Korea, U.S. troops go on higher alert. NK 14 May announced 4 June trial date for arrested U.S. journalists. NK 15 May cancelled all contracts with S Korea at Kaesong joint industrial complex.
NK 5 Apr attempted experimental “satellite” launch in face of strong international condemnation, increased threats to speed up nuclear program. A divided UNSC failed to adopt resolution, but in 13 Apr statement unanimously condemned launch, citing contravention of resolution 1718, and ordering Sanctions Committee to enforce sanctions, arms embargo. Japan 10 Apr renewed unilateral economic sanctions against NK for another year. Pyongyang responded 14 Apr renouncing 6-Party Talks, threatening 2nd test unless UNSC retract criticism and on 15 Apr ordering IAEA and U.S. nuclear inspectors to leave. 25 Apr announced production of weapons-grade plutonium resumed. Govt 24 Apr announced plans to try U.S. journalists arrested mid-March at Chinese border.
Rise in tensions after N Korea 12 March announced plan to launch communications satellite between 4-8 Apr; prompted outcry from ROK, Japan, U.S. that Pyongyang preparing to test rocket for long-range ballistic missile. Tokyo vowed to shoot down any missile threat to Japan, while U.S. Sec State Clinton 11 March warned U.S. had “range of options” and threatened to refer to UNSC. 2 other members of 6-Party Talks, China and Russia, showing less public concern, and some analysts stressed wisdom of measured response. ROK 18 March expressed fear NK would exploit attention to mount limited border attack. NK 2 March met U.S.-led UN command at border for 1st high-level talks in 7 years, later threatened to fire on ROK commercial flights during upcoming U.S.-ROK military exercises, causing some fl to be diverted. NK 17 March said will no longer accept humanitarian food assistance from U.S. 2 U.S. journalists detained 21 March for illegally entering NK.
Tense month following late-Jan announcement by Pyongyang voiding political and military agreements with South (ROK), invalidating western sea boundary, putting South military on high alert in Yellow Sea. Speculation rose concerning possible planned NK missile test; Pyongyang 25 Feb claimed launching “satellite” instead. ROK press 17 Feb reported NK operating small uranium enrichment plant west of Yongbyon. At start of inaugural trip abroad to Asia 15 Feb, U.S. State Sec. Clinton signalled “great openness” if NK denuclearises, readiness to help with food, energy assistance; but warned days later in Tokyo any missile test “unhelpful” for improving relations with U.S. NK leader Kim Jong-il told Chinese visitor NK still committed to 6-Party denuclearisation process; 6-Party working group met 19-20 Feb in Moscow on NE Asia peace and security mechanism, agreed peninsula should be denuclearised. Stephen Bosworth, former Seoul Ambassador, appointed U.S. special envoy to replace Christopher Hill; due to visit Six-Party capitals early Mar.
Month of mixed signals as North looked intent on garnering leverage with new U.S. administration. Kim Jong Il met Chinese envoy Wang Jiarui 23 Jan, reiterated NK’s commitment to dismantling nuclear weapons program. But North announced 29 Jan unilaterally ending series of agreements with South. Earlier, independent U.S. analyst Selig Harrison reported Pyongyang said 30.8 kg of plutonium now “weaponised”. Seoul nuclear envoy team 15-19 Jan visited North to investigate purchase by South of unused fuel rods from Yongbyon; first official visit since President Lee took office Feb 2008. President Lee replaced Unification minister 19 Jan: Hyun In-taek, previous critic of engagement with North, to hold post.
Six-Party Talks resumed 8 Dec, stalled quickly after Pyongyang continued to reject proposals for monitoring of nuclear samples at Yongbyon by foreign inspectors. Talks ended 11 Dec without agreement. Japan continued refusal to provide energy aid until abduction issue resolved, prompting NK to refuse to recognise Japan’s presence at Talks. NK 1 Dec imposed operating restrictions on Kaesong inter-Korean industrial project, terminated SK tourism to Kaesong and shut down inter-Korean train in protest of South’s policy towards North.
North Korea 12 Nov announced restrictions on passage from South to Kaesong industrial zone in North from 1 Dec; 24 Nov said closing associated rail link. Also 12 Nov announced no sampling by foreign inspectors allowed to verify disablement of nuclear facilities in Yongbyon; repercussions for next phase of disablement unclear. Six-Party Talks due to resume in Beijing 8 Dec.
After DPRK accepted proposed protocol for verification of disablement, Washington 11 Oct removed from “state sponsors of terrorism” list. Protocol covers both plutonium and uranium activity; critics note mutual consent needed for visits to undeclared sites. Move followed 1-3 Oct Pyongyang visit by chief U.S. envoy Christopher Hill. DPRK resumed disablement work 14 Oct. North-South relations remain chilly; South Korea called premature end to 2 Oct bilateral military talks.
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