North Korea continued to ratchet up tensions with missile flight over Japan, U.S. and South Korea signalled close cooperation, and North and South traded warning shots at sea.

North Korea conducted provocative launch over Japan. North Korea 4 Oct launched intermediate range ballistic missile over Japan, in most serious provocation since first quarter of 2022 and first such flight over Japan since 2017; missile flew some 4,500km, well within range of U.S. territory of Guam. North Korea 16-23 Oct paused further missile testing, lasting for duration of Chinese Communist Party Congress; prior to pause, Pyongyang launched 15 missiles 21 Sept-14 Oct. North resumed missile testing schedule post-Congress, with two short-range ballistic missiles fired 28 Oct. International Atomic Energy Agency chief 27 Oct said “Everybody is holding its breath” over possible seventh nuclear test as U.S., South Korea and Japan warned of “unparalleled response”; probability of nuclear test likely to rise in lead up to Dec, which will see anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death 17 Dec.

U.S. and South Korea demonstrated strong, united front. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim 3 Oct met South Korean counterpart Noh Kyu-duk in U.S. capital Washington, pledging to pursue strong measures against any North Korean testing, including new UN Security Council resolution and U.S. treasury sanctions. In sign of heightened pace of joint military exercises, South Korea and U.S. held several small drills in South Korea, including on border with North, following late August Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises; South Korean navy, army, air force, and coast guard 24-27 Oct participated with U.S. in two-week Hoguk Exercises beginning 17 Oct; U.S. and South Korea 31 Oct began large-scale air drills.

North and South Korean vessels traded shots at sea border. In incident underscoring risk of future maritime escalation, North and South Korea 23 Oct traded warning shots after what appeared to be North Korean merchant vessel crossed disputed maritime border Northern Limit Line (NLL) 27km northwest of South Korea’s Baengyeong Island. North Korea denied involvement, issuing counterclaim that South Korean navy sent two ships to “intrude” some 5km over NLL; South acknowledged crossing, said it was necessitated by pursuit of North Korean vessel.

North Korea fired ballistic missiles as U.S. and South Korea held military drills, Seoul proposed humanitarian talks with north, and Pyongyang outlined use of nuclear arsenal.

As U.S.-South Korea military drills ended, Pyongyang launched spate of ballistic missiles. U.S. and South Korea 1 Sept concluded joint Ulchi Freedom Shield summer exercises, largest for four years; exercises included eleven different types of field exercise, including joint aircraft carrier strike drills and amphibious landings. North Korea did not respond, but 24 Sept launched first ballistic missile; launch came after South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol 21 Sept delivered UN General Assembly speech without mentioning North Korea for first time ever, and ahead of U.S.-South Korea joint naval exercises 26-29 Sept and visit by U.S. VP Kamala Harris to South Korean capital Seoul and inter-Korean border. Pyongyang 28-29 Sept launched additional missiles, including after VP Harris departed. South Korea, U.S. and Japan 30 Sept held anti-submarine exercises for first time in five years.

South Korea sought progress with north on reunions of separated families. Seoul 8 Sept requested talks with North Korea on restarting unions of families separated by Korean War, in first attempt by new administration to make progress on longstanding humanitarian issue; Pyongyang did not respond to outreach, reaffirming disdain for new conservative administration.

North Korea promulgated new law governing nuclear use. Ahead of country’s founding day on 9 Sept, North Korea 8 Sept promulgated new law specifying conditions for use of nuclear arsenal. Law stipulates North will not attack non-nuclear states except if allied with nuclear states, nuclear weapons can be deployed if “attack by hostile forces on the state leadership…was launched or drew near”, and use aimed at preventing “expansion and protraction of a war”. In speech accompanying new law, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un same day declared “legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons”. While symbolic, law appears to be timed to raise regional military stakes in absence of highly provocative actions ahead of China’s ruling party congress beginning on 16 Oct.

U.S. and North Korea traded barbs over latter’s nuclear weapons program, while Pyongyang rejected Seoul’s new denuclearisation initiative amid U.S.-South Korea military drills. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 1 Aug criticised North Korea’s expansion of “unlawful nuclear programme” and accused Pyongyang of preparing seventh nuclear test; Pyongyang 3 Aug responded that it would “never tolerate” U.S. criticism on weapons tests and called Washington “kingpin of nuclear proliferation”. Visiting South Korea, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 4 Aug pledged to support North Korea’s denuclearisation based on “extended deterrence”; North Korean state media 6 Aug denounced Pelosi as “worst destroyer of international peace and stability”. UN concluded in confidential report leaked 4 Aug that North Korea made preparations for nuclear test during first six months of 2022. In first elaboration of North Korea policy since March election, South Korean President Yoon 15 Aug asserted that denuclearisation was prerequisite for peace in North East Asia and proposed “audacious initiative” to provide economic aid and development in exchange for Pyongyang’s credible steps toward denuclearisation. Kim Yo Jong – sister to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – 18 Aug dismissed proposal as “nonsense”, saying denuclearisation “cannot be bartered” for economic cooperation and proposal was rehash of policies of conservative govt in power 2008-2013. Remarks came after South Korea, U.S. and Japan 8-14 Aug held joint missile warning and tracking exercises. North 17 Aug fired two cruise missiles from Onchon (west coast). Yoon same day said high-level talks “should not be a political show” but lead to “substantive peace”. South Korea and U.S. 22 Aug commenced largest joint exercise in years. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un 11 Aug declared end to COVID-19 outbreak, which many local traders interpreted as sign that cross-border trade with China could soon restart. South Korean FM Park Jin and Chinese FM Wang Yi 9 Aug pledged to pursue “two-plus-two” talks and increase high-level communication on range of issues; dispute over U.S.-supplied missile defence system deployed in south 11 Aug resurfaced, however, as Beijing sought limits on its deployment. South Korean prosecutors 19 Aug raided presidential archive as part of investigation into former Moon administration’s repatriation of two North Korean fishermen in 2019.

Military cooperation between South Korea, U.S. and Japan sparked opposition from China and North Korea, as tensions could rise further ahead of major U.S.-South Korea drills next month. South Korea participated in U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific military exercise running 29 June-4 Aug in signal of improving relations and military alliance coordination. Chinese state media 2 July responded angrily; domestic experts criticised deployment as “dangerous signal” of South Korean President Yoon administration’s deviation from “neutral line” balancing Beijing and Washington relations, and portent of U.S., South Korean and Japanese trilateral military alliance. North Korea 3 July similarly criticised U.S., South Korea and Japan’s 29 June agreement to reinforce “extended deterrence” as fostering U.S. “military supremacy” over Asia-Pacific. U.S. F-35A stealth fighter jets 5 July arrived in South Korea for ten-day deployment in first publicly announced visit since 2017. Yoon next day ordered military to “promptly and sternly” retaliate against any provocation from North. South Korean military 10 July reported trajectories of shots fired by North Korea, possibly from multiple rocket launches. U.S. and South Korea will hold major summertime military drills late Aug for first time in four years, potentially adding fresh impetus for Pyongyang to conduct seventh nuclear test. After North Korea 13 July recognised self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russian ambassador to North Korea 18 July told media North Korean labourers may soon be sent to Ukraine’s Donbas region for rebuilding of “social, infrastructure, and industrial facilities”; comments underscore increased difficulty in maintaining existing UN sanctions regime on North Korea amid tensions between West and Russia. State media 18 July said country is en route to “finally defuse” crisis over COVID-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, South Korean FM Park Jin 18 July met Japanese FM Yoshimasa Hayashi to discuss reconciliation and disputes, including payments for forced labour stemming from 1910-1945 Japanese occupation of Korea. South Korea’s national intelligence service 6 July filed criminal complaints against two former chiefs on charges of abuse of power as well as for allegedly destroying intelligence documents.

North Korea (DPRK) tested ballistic missiles as U.S. again warned of potentially imminent DPRK nuclear test; Washington and Seoul signalled resolve with their own missile launches and drills. North Korea 5 June fired eight short-range ballistic missiles off east coast in largest-scale single test event to date. In response, South Korea and U.S. next day fired eight surface-to-surface missiles off east coast to demonstrate “capability and readiness to carry out precision strikes”; U.S. and South Korea 8 June conducted joint military drill involving 20 aircraft. U.S. continued warnings it ramped up in May of Pyongyang’s seventh nuclear test; U.S. Special Representative Sung Kim 6 June cautioned test could be “at any time”. International Atomic Energy Agency next day reported North Korean construction work expanding key facilities at main nuclear site in Yongbyon. U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies 16 June said North Korea appeared to be expanding work at Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility ready for possible nuclear test. South Korea 21 June successfully launched first domestically-designed rocket Nuri-ho II following failed launch in Oct 2021; rocket ostensibly intended to facilitate low-cost commercial satellite launches but is perceived by North Korea as overt military threat. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 22 June convened meeting of senior military officials to discuss national defence policies where he reiterated commitment to continuing arms build-up. During tripartite meeting, South Korean Vice FM Cho Hyun-dong, U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman and Japanese Vice FM Takeo Mori 8 June called on North Korea to cease actions that “escalate tensions” following “serious, unlawful” missile tests in May, stressing that “a path to serious and sustained dialogue remains open”. Chinese UN envoy Zhang Jun 9 June said “denuclearisation is one of the key goals of China” and warned not to “prejudge” Chinese response in event of seventh nuclear test; statement follows China’s 26 May veto alongside Russia of U.S.-led UN Security Council resolution authorising additional sanctions against North Korea. South Korean President Yoon 17 June called for coordinated UN Security Council response to Pyongyang’s provocations.

Pyongyang acknowledged COVID-19 outbreak for first time, and continued missile testing as concerns rose over possible nuclear test in coming weeks. U.S. and South Korea issued warnings through month of potential seventh North Korean nuclear test. U.S. State Dept 6 May warned satellite imagery showed nuclear test preparations underway, possibly linked to U.S. President Biden 20-22 May Seoul visit for first meeting with South Korean President Yoon, who was inaugurated 10 May. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan 19 May said intelligence presents “genuine possibility” of “long-range missile test or a nuclear test or frankly both”. Seoul 13 May said North Korea appeared ready for first nuclear test, while saying ICBM test appeared “imminent”; risk remained by end of month of nuclear test taking place within next two weeks. Meanwhile, North Korea 12 May acknowledged COVID-19 outbreak for first time amid lockdowns in multiple cities, most importantly in capital Pyongyang; state media set death toll at 65 as of 20 May, with over 2.2mn cases; decision to publicly acknowledge outbreak may indicate first major COVID-19 crisis in Pyongyang or desire to solicit Chinese assistance. U.S. 12 May said it had no plans to share vaccines but would support “provision of critical humanitarian aid”; South Korea next day announced intention to provide vaccines. As of 27 May, North Korea had not responded to aid offers; China 16 May sent at least three planeloads of protective gear and medication. North Korea also continued controversial missile activity. South Korea 4 May reported North Korean ballistic missile launch. North Korea 7 May tested alleged submarine-launched ballistic missile; in response, Japan condemned launch as “absolutely unacceptable”. North Korea 12 May fired three missiles off east coast. As U.S. President Biden concluded five-day trip in region, North Korea 25 May launched three missiles, including presumed Hwasong-17 inter-continental ballistic missile; U.S. and South Korea same day replied by launching two missiles. On diplomatic front, China’s Korean Affairs envoy 1 May expressed disapproval of “actions by any party that could escalate tension.” U.S. 3 May signalled desire to push UN Security Council vote on boosting sanctions against North Korea and 11 May warned “silence and restraint have not worked”. U.S. brought forward new UN Security Council resolution; Russia and China 27 May however vetoed it.

North Korea continued weapons testing as Seoul fired submarine-launched missiles, while incoming South Korean president planned early engagement with U.S. Following launch of intercontinental ballistic missile in March, U.S. 1 April sanctioned five entities it accused of providing support to North Korea’s weapons programs. North Korean state media 17 April reported leader Kim Jong Un observed test launch of new tactical guided weapon. South Korea week of 18 April tested two submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) off east coast of Korean Peninsula, in first such test since Sept 2021. Tests coincided with U.S. envoy to North Korea Sung Kim’s 18 April visit to South Korea’s capital Seoul, where he affirmed U.S. and South Korea would maintain “strongest possible joint deterrent” over Pyongyang’s “escalatory actions”. U.S. and South Korea same day commenced joint military exercises. North Korea 15 April marked “Day of the Sun” birth anniversary of national founder Kim Il Sung, without major military parade. Modest celebrations in Pyongyang were held in contrast to evidence of satellite images and diplomatic reports of preparations for parade, which went ahead 25 April in celebration of 90th anniversary of army foundation; no major new equipment was shown. President-elect Yoon Suk-Yeol’s advisers 4 April commenced visit to U.S. to prepare ground for early summit with U.S. President Biden. Outgoing South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un 20-21 April exchanged letters in likely final communication before Moon leaves office in May; Moon’s letter called on Kim to pursue peaceful inter-Korean relations under Yoon’s incoming conservative administration; Yoon transition team next day asserted “peace and prosperity” could only come from denuclearisation. South Korean Defence Minister Suh Wook 1 April said South Korean military had “ability to accurately and quickly hit any target in North Korea”; Kim Yo Jong, sister of Kim Jong Un, 3 April condemned remarks as worsening “inter-Korean relations and military tension”, and 5 April said North Korea opposes war but would use nuclear weapons if attacked, sentiment Kim Jong Un reiterated at parade 25 April.

North Korea tested components of military reconnaissance satellite and decisively ended self-imposed ban on long-range missile testing, raising prospect of provocative space launch in April. March saw pivot toward North Korean activities aligned with country’s ambition to launch military-reconnaissance satellite. Following similar test late Feb, North Korea 5 March launched components of satellite to operational altitudes. Leader Kim Jong-un 10 March visited National Aerospace Development Administration and next day Sohae Satellite Launch Centre, signalling focus on provocative space launch that may take place on or around 15 April – 110th birth anniversary of state founder Kim Il-sung. Experts debated whether Pyongyang is focussed on satellite deployment or, as U.S. 10 March asserted, developing “new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) system” that launches have utilised; Washington 12 March announced fresh sanctions in response to tests. Pyongyang then moved to undisguised ICBM launches; state 16 March launched missile that exploded shortly after take-off near Sunan international airport; South Korean military 20 March said North Korea same day fired short-range multiple rocket launcher. Pyongyang 24 March successfully launched older type of ICBM, which decisively ended self-imposed moratorium in place since April 2018. Meanwhile, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies 7 March published report suggesting “very early signs of activity” at North Korea’s sole nuclear test site in Punggye-ri (north east), which was ostensibly “destroyed” in 2018 as part of diplomatic process with U.S. and South Korea. South Korean military intelligence 27 March claimed that restoration work at Punggye-ri has been accelerated, raising possibility of nuclear test sooner than anticipated. In South Korea, former prosecutor and conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol 9 March won general election. In early moves likely perceived negatively in Pyongyang, President-elect Yoon’s transition team altered name of “foreign, security and unification” by omitting “unification”, signalling reduced focus on inter-Korean engagement and reflecting scepticism within now-ruling party toward utility of Ministry of Unification. Yoon 20 March decided to move presidential office to vicinity of Ministry of National Defence in Yongsan district, capital Seoul.

North Korea conducted late month missile test following weeks-long hiatus amid international concerns about resumption of testing. In wake of late Jan barrage of missile tests, North Korea saw pause in missile testing for most of month. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un 4 Feb issued congratulations to Chinese President Xi for hosting Winter Olympics 4-20 Feb, in gesture signalling confirmation of missile testing hiatus for duration of games likely aimed at limiting friction with Beijing; 22 Feb congratulated Xi on completion of games, vowed to strengthen cooperation with Beijing to “frustrate” threats from U.S. and its allies. U.S. Defence Secretary 9 Feb met with South Korean and Japanese counterparts to discuss North Korean missile tests, calling them “destabilizing to regional security” and “direct and serious threat”. South Korean President Moon in 10 Feb interview said resumption of nuclear or long-range missile testing would cause Korean Peninsula to “instantly fall back into the state of crisis we faced five years ago” and called for “persistent dialogue”; Moon’s comments come ahead of South Korea’s March elections that could coincide with resumption of North Korean testing. North Korea 27 Feb conducted missile test, prompting condemnation from U.S. and other states. Anniversary of birth of Kim Jong-il – father of Kim Jong-un – 16 Feb passed without notable events in North Korean capital Pyongyang despite rumoured planned military parade, with main event taking place in border city of Samjiyeon, birthplace of Kim according to official state history; move appeared to have been made to limit show of state power and associated risks of regional tensions. Supreme People’s Assembly 8 Feb pledged to develop economy in face of “persevering struggle” against both international sanctions and COVID-19 pandemic.

Peninsula North Korea conducted slew of missile tests, prompting U.S. to impose more sanctions, while early signs emerged of potential trade resumption with China. North Korea 1 Jan published report on Kim Jong-un’s speech to regular plenum of Korean Workers’ Party held 27-31 Dec; report expressed “heavy yet responsible agony for 2022”. Pyongyang thereafter conducted six missile tests during month, marking notable uptick in frequency compared to just eight tests of all kinds in 2021. Pyongyang claimed to have fired hypersonic weapons 5 and 11 Jan from heavily militarised Jangang province, short-range ballistic missiles 14 Jan from train mount and 17 and 27 Jan from static launchers, and cruise missiles on 25 Jan; tests appear to signal Pyongyang’s resumed desire to shake up political situation in East Asia after U.S attention focused elsewhere. In response to first two tests, U.S. 12 Jan imposed unilateral sanctions on several individuals linked to weapons programs; move reportedly chief cause of North Korean politburo’s 20 Jan decision to “promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporarily-suspended activities”, likely referring to resumption of inter-continental ballistic missile launches it last conducted in 2017, also accused U.S. of joint military exercises and “shipping…[of] nuclear strategic weapons” into surrounding region. Former U.S. Forces Korea head Gen Robert Abrams 20 Jan responded that U.S. “has not had a Carrier Strike Group, a Strategic Bomber, or 5th Gen fighter in [South Korean] waters or air space since May 2018”. UN Security Council 10, 20 Jan convened to discuss testing, with Russia and China making clear opposition to further sanctions. Trains crossed China-North Korea border in first indication of tentative reopening for trade; notably, three freight trains 17, 18, 19 Jan crossed border between Sinuiju city, North Korea, and Dandong city, China.