CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Korean Peninsula

Beijing issued 6-party joint statement 3 October confirming capitals had approved 30 September agreements: DPRK will submit complete declaration of nuclear programs, disable nuclear reactor, reprocessing plant and fuel fabrication plant at Yongbyon complex by year end. U.S. envoy Christopher Hill suggested declaration could come mid-November. Pyongyang inter-Korean summit 2-4 October produced pledge toward formal peace and enhancement of economic and cultural ties. China suspended rail links into the DPRK 11 October, “critically affecting” WFP food distribution.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

New round of 6-party talks suspended 30 September for 2 days as parties conferred with their capitals on plan to disable nuclear reactor by end 2007. Key agreement reportedly reached on defining “disabling”; document will be made public 2 October if approved. 1m tonnes of heavy fuel oil pledged to Pyongyang in return; 50,000 tonnes already sent by China, South Korea. Agreement came despite claims mid- month NK exporting missile technology to Syria. Seoul PM Roh Moo-Hyun to meet Kim Jong Il in Seoul at Inter-Korean summit 2-4 October.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

Seoul and Pyongyang announced plans for bilateral summit – first in 7 years and second since end of WWII – later postponed to 2 October due to flooding in North. Leaked IAEA report offered first confirmation of status of NK’s nuclear program since 2003, confirmed shutdown of 4 nuclear facilities at Yongbyon. Bilateral talks with Washington 1-2 September; removal of NK from U.S. terrorist list may be discussed. Next 6-Party Talks due in early September.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

Progress made towards denuclearisation; IAEA confirmed closure of Yongbyon nuclear reactor 16 July and 4 other nuclear sites 18 July. 6-party talks held 18- 20 July failed to yield deadline for disarmament; subsequent NK demand for lightweight nuclear reactors may complicate talks. 3-day high-level military talks between North and South broke down 26 July over disputed western sea border. South Korea dispatched last in series of heavy fuel oil shipments under disarmament deal to NK 29 July.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

Progress made as Pyongyang invited IAEA inspectors to Yongbyon nuclear reactor and agreed plan for verifying shutdown 29 June. Timing to be decided by 6- Party talks. Move came after funds unfrozen as part of February agreement finally received 25 June, and surprise visit by U.S. envoy Christopher Hill to Pyongyang 21 June. Hill, most senior U.S. official to visit since 2002, said on return NK understood highly enriched uranium issue needs satisfactory resolution and talks may resume week of 10 July. Seoul resumed food aid. Missile testing continued; 2 fired from west coast 7 June; unconfirmed reports of third test 19 June.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

No movement by Pyongyang on February pledge to shut Yongbyon reactor. 6-party talks on hold as difficulties in unfreezing Banco Delta Asia funds continued. After test run of cross-border rail links saw first trains to cross border region in over 50 years, end-month Seoul-Pyongyang bilateral talks ended without agreement as Seoul withheld dispatch of 400,000-tonne food aid. North Korea fired shortrange missiles into East Sea 25 May in “annual military exercise”.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

6-party talks still on hold as North Korea failed to shut Yongbyon reactor by 14 April deadline. Washington initially said willing to give Pyongyang some leeway on timing, but President Bush said patience “not unlimited” and, with Japan, threatened new sanctions during visit by PM Abe. $25m frozen funds in Macau bank remained unreleased due to difficulties finding banks to take funds from designated money-laundering concern. Seoul sent negotiator Chun Yung-woo to Washington 23 April to discuss technical issues related to unfreezing funds and resumed food aid.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

6-party talks resumed in Beijing 19 March to implement February breakthrough but stalled when Pyongyang walked out 22 March over U.S. failure to unfreeze funds in Macao bank. Technical difficulties continued to stall release as Pyongyang refused to set date for further talks. Bilateral talks with Japan failed 8 March over issue of alleged kidnappings. In rare admission, Pyongyang announced million-tonne food shortage.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

Breakthrough in Beijing 6-Party talks 13 February as North Korea agreed to shut Yongbyon nuclear reactor within 60 days in return for aid, in move towards full denuclearisation, though details remain to be ironed out in working groups due to meet mid-March. South Korea resumed inter-Korean talks for first time in 7 months 27 February; said increased food aid likely. Japan retained hard line on alleged abduction victims and refused to provide economic assistance.

Asia

Korean Peninsula

U.S. and North Korea held surprise bilateral talks in Berlin 16-18 January, reportedly reaching compromise that would ease sanctions on Pyongyang. U.S. also scrutinising frozen Pyongyang funds at Macau bank in possible step to release limited funds to North, but asserted UNDP may have improperly funnelled funds to Pyongyang; North has agreed to audit. U.S. upbeat about six-party talks, which resume 8 February, but speculation North may use threat of second nuclear test as leverage.

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