UN report revealed North Korea had funded nuclear and missile development through stolen virtual assets, while U.S. reaffirmed commitment to denuclearising peninsula. Panel of UN experts monitoring sanctions on North Korea 8 Feb concluded in confidential report to UN Security Council that Pyongyang had developed its nuclear and ballistic missile programs throughout 2020, in violation of international sanctions, funded with virtual assets estimated at $300 mn that had been stolen through cyberattacks. U.S. Department of Justice 17 Feb indicted three North Korean computer programmers responsible for numerous hacks. U.S. President Biden and South Korean President Moon 3 Feb agreed in first phone call to work on joint comprehensive North Korea strategy to achieve denuclearisation on Korean Peninsula. Seoul and Washington D.C. 5 Feb said officials from both countries held eighth round of negotiations on defence cost-sharing agreement after talks stalled for almost one year. Former first National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong 8 Feb took office as new FM; U.S. Sec State Blinken 9 Feb had call with Eui-yong during which he reaffirmed commitment to denuclearising Korean peninsula; Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi 16 Feb also spoke with new FM to discuss enhanced communication and coordination from all parties to resolve tensions on peninsula. Moon 28 Feb said Tokyo Olympics may be “chance for dialogue” between regional parties. Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 8-12 Feb chaired plenary meeting of ruling party’s central committee during which he accused cabinet of drafting plans with “no big changes” from previous ones that “failed tremendously on almost every sector”; he further reviewed action plans for new five-year strategy, and criticised Seoul for offering cooperation in “non-fundamental areas”. UN 2 Feb released report detailing acts of torture and forced labour in North Korea’s prisons – amounting to possible crimes against humanity – and calling for UN Security Council to refer North Korea to International Criminal Court.

North Korea held rare ruling party congress and reportedly unveiled new missile, while South Korea called for inter-Korean talks and urged U.S. to pursue dialogue. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 5-12 Jan held Eighth Party Congress of ruling Workers’ Party – first since 2016 and second since 1980 – attended by 250 party executives, over 4,500 delegates and 2,000 spectators; Kim admitted his five-year economic plan had fallen short of goals “on almost every sector” and vowed to place “state defence capabilities on a much higher level”, including by developing nuclear weapons and expanding diplomatic relations, while calling U.S. “biggest enemy”. During congress, ruling party 10 Jan elected Kim as general secretary – assuming title enjoyed by his late father and grandfather; Chinese President Xi Jinping 11 Jan congratulated Kim. Congress 12 Jan concluded with Kim reiterating call for increased military power and “greater nuclear war deterrence”. North Korea 14 Jan staged large military parade, displaying what appeared to be new submarine-launched ballistic missile described by state media as “world’s most powerful weapon”. South Korean President Moon Jae-in 11 Jan reaffirmed commitment to engagement with North Korea, said govt will also strengthen alliance with U.S.; Moon 18 Jan said incoming U.S. administration should hold talks with North Korea to build on progress made under former U.S. administration, and 20 Jan nominated former National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong as FM. South Korean Supreme Court 14 Jan upheld former President Park Geun-hye’s twenty-year prison term for bribery and other crimes. Seoul Central District Court 8 Jan ordered for first time Japan to compensate twelve South Korean “comfort women” forced to work as sex slaves during Japanese occupation; Japanese PM Suga said Japan could not accept ruling and lawsuit should be dropped. 

South Korea protested Chinese and Russian military activity, U.S. accused China of violating UN sanctions, and Seoul criminalised sending propaganda balloons to North Korea. Four Chinese warplanes and 15 Russian aircraft 22 Dec entered Korea Air Defence Identification Zone (KADIZ) for alleged routine training, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff; South Korea’s military scrambled air force fighters in response, while South Korean MFA same day reportedly lodged protest with China and Russia; Chinese MFA next day responded that Chinese and Russian warplanes did not enter KADIZ. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Korea Alex Wong 1 Dec accused China of “flagrant violation” of its obligation to enforce UN sanctions regime, and announced U.S. was offering up to $5mn reward for information on Chinese sanctions evasion; U.S. 8 Dec imposed sanctions on several Chinese companies for allegedly helping Pyongyang export coal; Chinese MFA 23 Dec responded that govt had always implemented sanctions seriously. On final visit to Seoul 8-11 Dec, U.S. Deputy Sec State Stephen Biegun said North Korea had “squandered” opportunities for progress in negotiations over last two years, and called on Pyongyang to agree to “lay out a map for action” leading to denuclearisation. South Korean parliament 15 Dec approved controversial legislation criminalising flying of propaganda leaflets by balloon toward North Korea; minority opposition lawmakers boycotted vote, saying that govt was sacrificing freedom of expression; human rights groups rallied same day at National Assembly to protest bill. South Korean President Moon Jae-in 4 Dec nominated new ministers of interior, health, land and housing, and gender in effort to refresh administration amid backlash over housing policies, rising COVID-19 cases, and scandal involving justice ministry and top prosecutors. UN Security Council 11 Dec discussed human rights abuses in North Korea in closed-door virtual meeting after seven members raised issue, accusing Pyongyang of using COVID-19 pandemic “to crack down further on the human rights of its own people.”

Regional tensions over alleged arms development continued while international actors maintained pressure on Pyongyang. Following briefing by National Intelligence Service, lawmaker in Seoul 3 Nov claimed Pyongyang is building two new submarines, including one capable of firing ballistic missiles. North Korean State media 4 Nov accused Japan of building missile system, describing developments as “challenge to regional peace and stability”. After Pyongyang revealed previously unseen intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in Oct, U.S. navy 17 Nov tested for first time intercontinental missile defence system from Kwajalein Atoll in Republic of Marshall Islands, successfully intercepting ICBM. Following International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Austria’s capital Vienna, Director General Rafael Grossi 18 Nov said nuclear “activity is taking place” at Kangson facility near Pyongyang. Meanwhile, police in South Korea’s capital Seoul early Nov sent cases to prosecutors’ office against human rights groups, reportedly for breaking inter-Korean exchange law by sending balloons with anti-Pyongyang leaflets across border. Seoul 4 Nov claimed to have detained citizen from north who had crossed border near Goseong county previous evening; govt did not say whether he was civilian or member of military. UN special rapporteur on North Korea’s human rights situation 19 Nov sent letter to Seoul and Pyongyang requesting information on Sept killing of South Korean official in border incident. South Korean FM 8-11 Nov visited Washington for talks, including with Sec State Pompeo on U.S.-ROK alliance, while U.S. President-elect Biden and South Korean President Moon 12 Nov reaffirmed commitment to alliance and peaceful Korean peninsula during phone call. U.S. 19 Nov announced sanctions on North Korean company operating in Russia and Russian construction company for “exportation of forced labour from North Korea”, accusing companies of using forced labour to “generate revenue” for govt. German officials 17 Nov accused Russia and China of preventing UN Security Council from determining whether Pyongyang had violated fuel sanctions. Chinese FM Wang Yi 26 Nov met South Korean President Moon in Seoul to discuss stalled denuclearisation talks and potential visit of Chinese President Xi to capital.

North Korea unveiled new missiles during annual parade while U.S.-South Korea dispute over military cost sharing continued. Pyongyang demonstrated previously unseen long-range intercontinental ballistic missile and submarine-launched missiles at 10 Oct military parade to celebrate 75th anniversary of Party Foundation Day attended by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un; during event, Kim claimed all citizens in North “healthy and sound” despite reports of COVID-19 outbreaks; next day, govt in Seoul held emergency meeting to discuss military parade. U.S. and South Korea 13-14 Oct held annual military talks featuring heads of military and defence ministers; in joint statement, Washington and Seoul pledged to “continue to develop” U.S.-ROK Alliance and recognised “significant threat that North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose”; amid continued tensions over sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula, statement also noted that lack of agreement has “lasting effects for Alliance readiness”. Defence ministry in Seoul 26 Oct said U.S. did not commit to maintain its current troop levels as Washington wished to have more flexible deployment. Danish documentary produced over ten years 11 Oct alleged pro-Pyongang organisation Korean Friendship Association helped North Korea evade UN ban on trading arms. Senior U.S. justice official 22 Oct accused China of helping North Korea launder money from cyber-attacks to evade UN sanctions; next day, Beijing denied accusation and said it “fully and earnestly” implements UN sanctions. In reported defection of senior official, chairman of South Korea’s National Assembly’s intelligence committee 8 Oct confirmed reports that North Korean diplomat Jo Song-gil, who disappeared while acting as ambassador to Italy in 2018, had been living in South since 2019. Pyongyang 30 Oct blamed Seoul for Sept killing of South Korean fisheries official at de facto maritime border.

Tensions remained high following North Korea’s killing of South Korean official at sea and amid concerns that North Korea might test weapon in Oct. Concerns grew that Pyongyang may intensify provocative actions as North Korean soldiers 22 Sept shot and killed South Korean fisheries official at de facto maritime border; Pyongyang warned of tensions if South Korean naval operations continued search for body; DPRK 25 Sept apologised for shooting. Pyongyang may display or test new or advanced weaponry, including possible submarine-launched ballistic missile, in lead up to 10 Oct military parade to celebrate North Korea’s 75th anniversary; Pyongyang is yet to demonstrate “new strategic weapon” announced in Dec 2019. Analysis platform 38 North 14 Sept reported satellite imagery showing four new temporary structures that may be storage units for large missile systems, including launching vehicles. Vice chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff John Hyten 17 Sept said North Korea possesses “small number” of nuclear weapons with “capabilities that can threaten their neighbours” or U.S. Ahead of 21-24 Sept International Atomic Energy Agency conference in Vienna, U.S. 19 Sept called on international efforts to achieve “fully verified denuclearization of North Korea”. Amid continued international concern over North Korea breaking UN sanctions limit on importing fuel, South Korean Yonhap news agency 2 Sept reported findings from data analytics firm Kharon alleging Russian companies Gazprom and Rosneft shipped oil worth $26mn to Pyongyang in 2018 and 2019. U.S. govt 11 Sept also accused two Hong Kong companies of acquiring over $300mn worth of communications equipment for DPRK, violating UN sanctions. Amid economic and humanitarian difficulties in North Korea due to COVID-19 concerns and floods, U.S. Deputy Sec State Steve Biegun 11 Sept said Washington will ease restrictions for U.S. aid workers traveling to country. South Korean vice FM Choi 10 Sept announced Washington and Seoul had agreed to launch a high-level dialogue channel in Oct to run parallel to U.S.-South Korean Working Group; however, U.S. state department reportedly only said they would “positively consider” move, leading to domestic criticism of Choi.

U.S. and South Korea carried out annual joint-military exercises, while Pyongyang’s economic struggles continued amid spread of COVID-19 and mass flooding. As dispute between Seoul and Washington over sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean Peninsula still unresolved, U.S. and South Korea 18-28 Aug held annual joint military drills; exercises smaller than previous years with U.S.-based troops unable to join due to COVID-19 restrictions on travel; North Korea unusually quiet during drills. Amid widely suspected COVID-19 epidemic, North Korea 14 Aug lifted lockdown, imposed in July, on border city of Kaesong following accusation North Korean defector who swam back from South Korea in July imported virus. Pyongyang also faced major damages from floods that began 1 Aug during monsoon season. Amid floods affecting harvest and COVID-19 causing halt to nearly all trade with China due to closing of borders, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 20 Aug admitted to failure of govt’s economic policy during meeting of ruling party officials; hours later, South Korean media reported Kim had given responsibility for relations with Seoul and Washington to Kim Yo-jong, top official and Kim’s sister. Reuters 3 Aug reported confidential UN document stated several countries believe Pyongyang has developed “miniaturised nuclear devices” for ballistic missiles. International concerns over suspected North Korean cyberattacks continued; Israel 12 Aug said it had prevented cyberattack by Pyongyang-linked hackers on its defence industry, though a cybersecurity firm said attack had been successful. In South Korea, civil society and conservative groups, including over 50,000 protestors rallying in downtown Seoul 15 Aug, continued to accuse President Moon’s govt of authoritarian practices and violations of democratic rights, including passing new laws without due process and invading privacy; criticism among minority voices also continued over alleged election fraud during April general election. Meanwhile, Seoul 22 Aug announced new restrictions on gatherings and events following its second COVID-19 outbreak.

Tensions continued amid Seoul’s reshuffle of security team, while North Korea cast doubt on potential third U.S.-DPRK summit. South Korean President Moon Jae-in 3 July reorganised his national security team, including appointing Suh Hoon as national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong as special advisor, former lawmaker Park Jie-won – imprisoned from 2006-2007 for secretly sending money to Pyongyang to hold inter-Korean summit in 2000 – as intelligence chief and nominating ruling Democratic Party lawmaker Lee In-Young as unification minister. U.S. President Donald Trump 7 July said he believes Pyongyang wants meeting between DPRK and U.S. and he would join if “helpful”; top official and sister of DPRK leader Kim Jong-un Kim Yo-jong 10 July released statement reiterating Pyongyang’s lack of interest in another Trump-Kim summit, saying preconditions for talks had changed from previous demands of sanctions relief and end to joint U.S.-South Korea military drills to expanded position that Washington must end all “hostilities”, including rhetoric and criticism; statement came days after U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper 7 July listed North Korea among “rogue states”. Former South Korean FM and UN Sec Gen Ban Ki-moon 8 July urged govt not to “beg” North Korea during speech to National Assembly, describing Moon administration’s policies toward North as “astounding and deplorable”. North Korean state media 11 July announced reinstatement of Kim Yo-jong to political bureau of central committee in Pyongyang; Kim Yo-jong was removed from position in 2019. South Korea’s military 30 July reported Pyongyang 6 July fired missile as part of naval exercises. Amid ongoing dispute between U.S. and South Korea over sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula, Wall Street Journal newspaper 17 July reported U.S. Defence Department had presented Trump administration with options to reduce number of troops, raising concerns in South Korea and Japan over potential impact on security. UK 6 July announced sanctions against two North Korean ministries for reportedly running prison camps. Analysts at Middlebury Institute of International Studies 8 July reported suspected undeclared nuclear facility in Wollo-ri village near Pyongyang.

Inter-Korean tensions significantly rose as Pyongyang increased pressure on Seoul, demolished liaison office near border and threatened military action; meanwhile economic situation in DPRK continued to deteriorate. After North Korea 9 June ended all inter-Korean communication, Kim Yo-jong, top official and sister of DPRK leader Kim Jong-un, warned 13 June that Pyongyang will “take its next action” and “break with the South Korean authorities”; Seoul’s Ministry of Unification next day urged Pyongyang to “honour all inter-Korean agreements”. North Korea 16 June demolished inter-Korean liaison office in border town of Kaesong set up after 2018 summit between two Korean leaders, citing Seoul’s failure to stop activists and North Korean defectors sending leaflets, food and aid across border, as well as South Korea’s continued military exercises and lack of progress in lifting sanctions. In attempt to prevent anti-Pyongyang leafleteers earlier in month, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification 10 June said it would press charges against two activist groups. Following demolition of office, DPRK 17 June rejected South’s offer to send special envoy to de-escalate tensions and vowed to redeploy troops to border areas of Mount Kumgang and Kaesong; South Korea’s Defence Ministry reiterated support for 2018 agreement but warned of “strong response” to any military provocation. After South Korean unification minister 17 June offered resignation, members of ruling-Democratic Party called for reshuffle of U.S.-South Korea working group, claiming Washington was damaging inter-Korean relations; Seoul’s chief nuclear negotiator same day arrived in Washington to discuss recent tensions on peninsula and potential responses; DPRK state media 24 June said Kim suspended “military action plans against the south”. North Korea’s economy reportedly continued to deteriorate amid COVID-19 and halting of nearly all trade with China due to closed borders; Pyongyang continued to blame international sanctions. Amid ongoing dispute between U.S. and South Korea over cost sharing of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula, U.S. military 2 June announced Seoul agreed to pay $200mn for 4,000 Korean nationals working with U.S. forces.

North Korean leader reappeared in public following speculation about his health, inter-Korean tensions flared at border, and concerns about food shortages inside DPRK surfaced. Following almost three weeks of public absence and widespread speculation about Kim Jong-Un’s well-being, DPRK state media released photos and video of North Korean leader at 1 May opening ceremony of Sunchon fertiliser plant north of Pyongyang. Shortly after, tensions flared on inter-Korean border when DPRK 3 May fired multiple gunshots across demilitarised zone and four bullets hit South Korean guard post in border town of Cheorwon; in response Seoul fired warning shots but later called events an “accident”; Pyongyang did not reply to South’s request for explanation nor cooperate in UN investigation into incident. South Korea’s ministry of unification 19 May warned of food shortages in North, said COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutting of borders hampering food imports; Russia 14 May confirmed it sent 25,000 tonnes of wheat to DPRK. South Korean president Moon Jae-in 10 May reiterated desire for inter-Korean projects starting with quarantine and infectious disease cooperation in response to COVID-19; ministry of unification 14 May said DPRK allowed entry of medical supplies including hand sanitisers from South Korean civic group through Chinese border week of 4 May; Pyongyang continued to deny presence of COVID-19 cases inside country and rejected supplies from American organisations. DPRK military 8 May threatened to respond to Seoul for its “reckless” 6 May military drills near disputed boundary in West Sea; South’s defence ministry said drills took place within its boundaries and did not violate 2018 deal establishing buffer zone free from military exercises. U.S.-South Korea tensions continued over agreement for sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula; U.S. President Trump 7 May said Seoul had “agreed to pay substantial money”. U.S. justice department 28 May charged 28 North Koreans and five Chinese citizens for operating money laundering scheme worth over $2.5bn to fund Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.