North Korean leader reappeared in public following speculation about his health, inter-Korean tensions flared at border, and concerns about food shortages inside DPRK surfaced. Following almost three weeks of public absence and widespread speculation about Kim Jong-Un’s well-being, DPRK state media released photos and video of North Korean leader at 1 May opening ceremony of Sunchon fertiliser plant north of Pyongyang. Shortly after, tensions flared on inter-Korean border when DPRK 3 May fired multiple gunshots across demilitarised zone and four bullets hit South Korean guard post in border town of Cheorwon; in response Seoul fired warning shots but later called events an “accident”; Pyongyang did not reply to South’s request for explanation nor cooperate in UN investigation into incident. South Korea’s ministry of unification 19 May warned of food shortages in North, said COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutting of borders hampering food imports; Russia 14 May confirmed it sent 25,000 tonnes of wheat to DPRK. South Korean president Moon Jae-in 10 May reiterated desire for inter-Korean projects starting with quarantine and infectious disease cooperation in response to COVID-19; ministry of unification 14 May said DPRK allowed entry of medical supplies including hand sanitisers from South Korean civic group through Chinese border week of 4 May; Pyongyang continued to deny presence of COVID-19 cases inside country and rejected supplies from American organisations. DPRK military 8 May threatened to respond to Seoul for its “reckless” 6 May military drills near disputed boundary in West Sea; South’s defence ministry said drills took place within its boundaries and did not violate 2018 deal establishing buffer zone free from military exercises. U.S.-South Korea tensions continued over agreement for sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula; U.S. President Trump 7 May said Seoul had “agreed to pay substantial money”. U.S. justice department 28 May charged 28 North Koreans and five Chinese citizens for operating money laundering scheme worth over $2.5bn to fund Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

While speculation about health of DPRK leader Kim Jong-un increased, North Korea carried out further weapons tests and military exercises in continued demonstration of hard-line position, and South Korea’s ruling party won landslide general election. Concerns and speculation about Kim’s well-being arose as he remained out of public eye for over two weeks; meanwhile, Seoul and Beijing rejected reports Kim is critically ill. Pyongyang 9 April held artillery exercises overseen by DPRK leader Kim and 14 April tested possible cruise missiles and fighter jet-launched air-to-ground missiles; moves reportedly aimed at demonstrating regime strength domestically despite widely suspected COVID-19 outbreak. Chairman of U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff 14 April downplayed tests, saying they were not “particularly provocative or threatening to us”. Commander of U.S. forces in Korea 2 April said Pyongyang’s claim of having no COVID-19 cases was “impossible”, and that DPRK’s March weapons tests had “increased tension”. U.S. govt 15 April issued threat advisory warning about Pyongyang’s “malicious cyber activities”, saying it poses “significant threat to the integrity and stability of the international financial system”, said DPRK uses cyber-attacks “to generate revenue for its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs”. UN panel on sanctions 17 April released report claiming North Korea sharply increased trade in coal and oil products in 2019 with help of Chinese shipping industry in defiance of sanctions, but report removed from UN website same day. In South Korean general elections 15 April, incumbent-President Moon’s Democratic Party and allies won landslide victory securing 180 seats (increase of 57) of 300 available in National Assembly; despite COVID-19 fears, turnout over 66%, highest in eighteen years. U.S.-South Korea tensions continued over agreement for sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula; Reuters 10 April reported U.S. President Trump rejected Seoul’s offer of increased payment of at least 13% compared to previous accord.

North Korea carried out missile tests and military exercises in demonstration of hard-line position announced Dec 2019, while diplomatic activity remained stalled amid COVID-19 pandemic. Pyongyang 2, 8, 21 and 29 March tested short-range ballistic missiles and used multiple-launch rocket systems; moves apparently aimed at reassuring population about North Korean-leader Kim Jong-un’s strength amid widely suspected COVID-19 epidemic inside country, by testing missiles without eliciting response from U.S.; in U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Defense Secretary Mark Esper 4 March said threat from DPRK ballistic missile capabilities “becoming increasingly complicated as they seek to modernize the full range of missile systems”, confirmed they would pose a threat to the U.S.; in joint statement, UK, Germany, France, Estonia and Belgium 5 March condemned 2 March missiles test, said launches “undermine regional security and stability”. UN Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet 10 March reported apparent “systematic human rights violations in detention centres” in DPRK, including “sexual violence against women and girls”, which may amount to “crimes against humanity”; said violations appear to be taking place under “direct authority of two Ministries, with likely involvement of higher authorities”. U.S. Justice Department 2 March indicted two Chinese nationals for laundering $100mn worth of cryptocurrency from stolen money by North Korean actors in 2018; U.S. attorney claimed Pyongyang continues to attack virtual currencies “as a means to bypass the sanctions imposed on it”. Think tank Centre for Advanced Studies 3 March released report claiming China and North Korea violated 2017 UN Security Council Resolution 2397 preventing DPRK from supplying, selling or transferring, directly or indirectly, “earth and stone”, said satellite imagery and shipping databases appear to show hundreds of vessels “dredging sand in Haeju Bay before transporting it to China” March-Aug 2019. U.S.-South Korea tensions continued over future agreement for sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula, with negotiators unable to make breakthrough in discussions 17-19 March in Los Angeles, U.S..

U.S.-North Korea stalemate continued while UN report alleged Pyongyang advanced its nuclear and missile programs in 2019, breaching sanctions. U.S. media 10 Feb reported President Trump told advisors he did not want summit with Kim Jong-un before Nov U.S. election. Leaked report to UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea, due in March, alleged Pyongyang breached UN sanctions by failing to halt “illicit nuclear and ballistic missile program” in 2019, said DPRK illicitly imported refined petroleum, and exported US$370mn worth of coal aided by Chinese barges; China refused to comment. Study by U.S. company Recorded Future, released 9 Feb, reported Pyongyang increased its internet usage by 300% since 2017, using it “as an instrument for acquiring prohibited knowledge and skills”, enabling development of “nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and cyber operations”. South Korean President Moon reportedly seeking meeting with Trump in March; conservative South Korean lawmakers continued to push Washington against such meeting for fear it could result in unfair elections. U.S.-South Korea tensions continued over stalled negotiations on agreement for sharing cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula; South Korean Defence Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper discussed cost sharing in meeting in Washington 24 Feb, but negotiators failed to agree on new deal; U.S. military 28 Feb gave its South Korean employees one-month notice about impending unpaid leave of absence; Seoul and Washington 27 Feb postponed spring military exercises “until further notice” after Seoul declared its highest “severe” alert level over coronavirus-19. Coronavirus infection rate mid-Feb recorded daily spikes in South Korea’s Daegu city, with Shincheonji religious group members who had just visited China testing positive for virus; President Moon increasingly accused of putting relations with China above public health by allowing Chinese tourists and students inside country; April general elections could become de facto referendum on Moon over virus. In response to Coronavirus-19 threat, DPRK reportedly closed its border with China late Jan, while news reports said country also hit by virus contrary to official announcements; DPRK early Feb informed foreign embassies and tour operators that foreigners will be temporarily blocked from entering, including diplomats.

North Korea maintained its Dec-announced harder-line plans toward U.S. and denuclearisation in 2020, while South Korea announced plans to resume inter-Korean cooperation. Following DPRK leader Kim Jong-un late-Dec remarks warning of “new strategic weapon”, Pyongyang 21 Jan reiterated stance at UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva with Ju Yong Chol, counsellor at North Korea’s mission to UN, saying that if U.S. does not lift sanctions and persists in “hostile policy”, there will “never be denuclearisation”. DPRK state media 24 Jan confirmed veteran military official Ri Son Gwon – previously in charge of inter-Korean affairs – as new FM. South Korean President Moon 8 Jan announced plans to resume inter-Korean cooperation projects including non-governmental tours to DPRK for South’s civilians, Pyongyang has however yet to accept Seoul’s proposal; South Korean President Moon 14 Jan said inter-Korean cooperation would benefit DPRK-U.S. dialogue and could help ease sanctions. In response, U.S. ambassador to South Korea 16 Jan said plans should be consulted with Washington due to possibility of projects earning foreign currency for North Korea, thereby potentially violating international sanctions; South Korean govt next day called remarks “very inappropriate”, said inter-Korean cooperation is “matter for our government to decide”. U.S.-South Korea tensions also ongoing over stalled negotiations on agreement for sharing of cost of maintaining 28,500 U.S. troops on Korean peninsula, as sixth round of talks took place 14-15 Jan in Washington with no resolution. Seoul insisted agreement sticks to outlines in existing Special Measures Agreement while Washington’s focus remained on expanding scope of agreement and reducing cost for U.S.; Seoul 29 Jan said U.S. Forces Korea began sending 60-day notice of potential leave to nearly 9,000 South Korean employees seen as pressure tactic for Seoul to pay more.

During Workers’ Party plenum 28-31 Dec, North Korea threatened to resume nuclear and long-range missile tests, blaming continued U.S. “hostile policy”; warned world DPRK will soon possess “new strategic weapon”. Kim Jong-un’s remarks during plenum came ahead of much-anticipated New Year’s Day address, eventually not delivered for first time during Kim’s rule since 2012. Report of plenum revealed Pyongyang planning much harder line in 2020, stressed any chance for diplomacy contingent upon Washington making proposals closer to Pyongyang’s terms. Ahead of announcement, DPRK further intensified pressure for U.S. to make proposal to implement 2018 Singapore Joint Statement ahead of Kim’s unilaterally-imposed end-2019 deadline, warned U.S. to make concessions, up to them what “Christmas gift” they would get; 7 Dec DPRK UN envoy said denuclearisation was off negotiating table. At meeting with ruling party Central Committee senior officials, Kim 22 Dec stressed need for “offensive measures” to bolster DPRK security. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun 16 Dec called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations, said it is time to do “our jobs”; National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien 29 Dec said U.S. was prepared to take action if Pyongyang made good on “gift” threat. Pyongyang 7, 13 Dec tested engine used for intercontinental ballistic missiles or satellite launch vehicle, hailed first test as enhancing its “strategic position”, second test as bolstering “strategic nuclear deterrent”. Meanwhile, U.S. and South Korea remained at loggerheads over cost-sharing for maintaining U.S. troops on Korean peninsula. Fourth and fifth rounds of negotiations brought no progress, Seoul 18 Dec rejected U.S. demands to enlarge scope of costs in existing agreement for South Korea to cover; new round of talks expected in Jan. Amid fears Trump might withdraw troops, U.S. Senate 14 Dec passed provisions prohibiting reduction of total U.S. troops in South Korea below 28,500 unless defence secretary deems it benign for U.S. and key allies’ national security interests. South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe 24 Dec met on sidelines of trilateral summit with China for first time in fifteen months, however no agreement reached.

North Korea increased tensions with another round of what Japan said appeared to be missile launches 28 Nov, and threatened further launches, while relations between U.S. and South Korea grew more strained over negotiations on cost-sharing for U.S. troop presence. North Korean missiles 28 Nov flew into sea between Korean peninsula and Japan; Pyongyang 30 Nov threatened ballistic missiles would fly over Japan “in the not distant future”. Earlier in month, Pyongyang 13 Nov warned U.S. would face “bigger threat and harsh suffering” if Kim Jong-un’s unilaterally-imposed end-2019 deadline is “ignored”, continuing pressure on U.S. to offer proposal on nuclear deal; Pyongyang demanding U.S. and South Korea halt joint military drills and lift sanctions. Washington and Seoul 17 Nov announced postponement of joint air drills as good-will gesture; Pyongyang dismissed it, said it was not interested in talks “that bring nothing to us” and would not “gift the U.S. president with something he can boast of”. North Korean state media 25 Nov reported Kim ordered artillery drills near disputed inter-Korean maritime border while inspecting military unit on islet off west coast, in first known trip to front-line military unit since entering nuclear diplomacy with U.S.; artillery firing aimed toward South Korea, which expressed regret saying drills violated 2018 inter-Korean military agreement. Third round of negotiations between U.S. and South Korea on how to divide cost for maintaining U.S. troops on Korean peninsula ended abruptly 20 Nov, amid renewed tensions after U.S. President Trump demanded Seoul pay 400% (about $5bn) more in 2020. South Korean newspaper 20 Nov reported U.S. considering withdrawing one brigade (3,000-4,000 troops) if sides unable to reach agreement by end of 2019; U.S. denied. Seoul 22 Nov postponed with conditions its controversial decision to terminate intelligence sharing agreement with Japan, which had omitted South Korea from its “white list” of trusted trading partners. South Korean and Chinese defence ministers 17 Nov agreed to establish more military hotlines, in apparent message and warning to Washington.

Amid North Korean missile launches and continued inter-Korean tensions, U.S.-North Korean denuclearisation negotiations remained stalled with Pyongyang criticising U.S.’ approach to bilateral talks. U.S. and North Korea 5 Oct held working-level discussions in Swedish capital Stockholm, but Pyongyang broke off dialogue after a few hours claiming U.S.’ approach had not changed; North Korea’s chief negotiator Kim Myong-gil said U.S. would not “give up their old viewpoint and attitude” and negotiations had “not fulfilled our expectation”; U.S. reportedly also noted North Korean intransigence. Following speech by North Korea’s UN ambassador Kim Song at UN General Assembly 30 Sept, during which he accused U.S. of failing to attempt to implement June 2018 Joint Declaration issued by U.S. President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, North Korean criticism of U.S. policy continued; ruling party Central Committee vice-chair Kim Yong-chol 26 Oct warned that only Trump-Kim relationship stopped two countries returning to hostile relations, while govt reiterated U.S. has until end of 2019 to change “hostile policy”. In continued inter-Korean tensions, Kim Jong-un 23 Oct demanded South Korea remove its facilities in Mount Kumgang tourist zone – not in use since 2008 killing of South Korean tourist by North Korean guard – during visit to site; South Korea 28 Oct offered talks to resolve issue, but next day reported that North Korea had rejected proposal, preferring to reach agreement by “means of exchanging documents”. North Korea 2 Oct tested what is thought to be new ballistic missile capable of being launched from a submarine, while South Korea 31 Oct said Pyongyang that day had fired two unidentified “projectiles” into East Sea/Sea of Japan.

Positive statements by U.S. and North Korean officials during month signalled potential for revival of bilateral dialogue, despite North Korea launching another test of short-range missile early Sept. North Korea 10 Sept launched two short range missiles, similar to launches in July and Aug. In 6 Sept speech, U.S. Special Representative Stephen Biegun signalled greater flexibility concerning U.S.’s North Korea policy. U.S. President Trump 20 Sept said he is open to “new method” in future talks; North Korean media same day reported Pyongyang’s chief negotiator Kim Myong-gil welcomed Trump’s comments. Trump 23 Sept held out possibility of another summit with Kim Jong-un, which observers fear could reduce the likelihood of working-level dialogue. South Korean President Moon 23 Sept met with Trump, reportedly advocating for creation of denuclearisation roadmap and stating Seoul’s objectives to strengthen U.S.-South Korean alliance. North Korea responded angrily, accusing U.S. of intervening in inter-Korean affairs, but statement from veteran North Korean official Kim Kye-gwan’s 27 Sept indicated North Korea keen to arrange third summit with U.S.. Chinese customs figures released mid-Sept showed steadily rising trend of oil exports to North Korea, suggesting ambivalent Chinese enforcement of international sanctions on North Korea.

Amid North Korea testing projectiles throughout month, U.S. President Trump received letter from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stating willingness to resume talks, and tensions could now ease following end of U.S.-South Korea military drills. Trump 10 Aug said Kim in letter expressed willingness to meet once exercises ended, raising possibility of U.S.-North Korea talks around UN General Assembly in Sept, though North Korean attendance at assembly currently uncertain. Trump 25 Aug in meeting with Japanese PM Abe signalled his objection to joint military drills between U.S. and South Korea, describing them as “complete waste of money”. North Korea 2, 6, 10, 16 and 24 Aug launched salvos of short range missiles; however South Korea and Trump played down launches. Missiles reportedly fired in response to 5-23 Aug U.S.-South Korea joint military drills and South Korea’s 2020-2024 defence plan, unveiled 14 Aug, which adds over 7% in year-on-year defence spending; plan will see construction of large-deck landing ship capable of hosting up to twenty F-35B fighter aircraft. North Korea failed to respond to South Korea to claim body of man who drowned in Imjin River and floated into South Korean territory 31 July, highlighting breakdown of bilateral ties.