U.S. and North Korea denuclearisation talks remained stalled while North Korea tested projectiles. Despite end June agreement to restart negotiations following meeting between U.S. President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in demilitarised zone between North and South Korea, stalemate in denuclearisation talks ongoing with no talks announced. North Korea 24 July conducted test of two short-range missiles and 31 July fired two more. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton 23 July met with Korean officials in Seoul to discuss stalled talks as well as strengthening of South Korea-U.S. alliance. World Food Programme 24 July announced it had learned that North Korea intended to reject South Korea’s food aid program, announced in June and due to be delivered through UN agencies. Joint air exercise 23 July saw three Russian and two Chinese military planes fly over Dokdo islands in East Sea/Sea of Japan, claimed by both South Korea and Japan; South Korea scrambled jets and fired hundreds of warning shots after one of Russian planes violated its sovereign airspace. Russia denied violation of airspace but confirmed it took part in joint patrol with Chinese aircraft (see China/Japan). Exercise came amid deterioration in Japanese-South Korean relations, with National Security Advisor Chung Eui-yong 18 July saying govt could even reconsider sharing intelligence with Japan if bilateral situation worsens.

North Korea leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump held meeting in demilitarised zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea, agreeing to restart stalled denuclearisation negotiations. During visit to South Korea, Trump 29 June tweeted invite to Kim, asking latter to meet next day at “border/DMZ”; North quickly responded. Trump and Kim 30 June met in DMZ, with Trump becoming first sitting U.S. president to set foot in North Korea. Kim said meeting was “very significant” and would have “positive influence” on future discussions, while Trump said he was “proud to step over line” into North Korea and said negotiators from both countries would meet in coming weeks. South Korean leader Moon Jae-in also present at parts of DMZ meeting. Meeting followed letter from Kim to Trump mid-June, and North Korean state media 23 June reporting Kim Jong-un received letter from Trump which Kim praised as “excellent”; U.S. Sec of State Mike Pompeo same day confirmed Trump sent letter. Earlier in month, Chinese President Xi 20-21 June visited Pyongyang and met with Kim for celebration of 70 years of China-DPRK diplomatic relations, first visit of a Chinese leader to North Korea in fourteen years. U.S. defence intelligence agency director 24 June said in interview Kim is “not ready to denuclearise”. South Korea’s Unification Ministry 5 June approved $8mn aid package to North Korea and 19 June announced it would send 50,000 tons of rice, worth more than $100mn, to be delivered through UN agencies. South Korea reported that during 3 June meeting in Seoul, South Korean President Moon and acting U.S. Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan reaffirmed sanctions on North Korea must remain in place to achieve successful denuclearisation.

Amid stalemate in denuclearisation negotiations between U.S. and North Korea, tensions mounted as Pyongyang launched two short-range ballistic missiles 4 May (from south east) and 9 May (from north west), first missile launches in any form since Dec 2017. U.S. President Trump downplayed significance of launches, saying he remains hopeful of a deal with North Korea; U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo noted that tests did not break North Korea’s testing moratorium, which he said only covers intercontinental ballistic missiles – prompting speculation that Pyongyang may proceed with a mid-range ballistic missile launch. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton 24 May said there is “no doubt” that launches violate UN Security Council resolutions. Pyongyang same day stated it will not resume negotiations with Washington unless U.S. changes its stance on sequencing of concessions in negotiations. Amid stalled talks, U.S. 9 May legally seized North Korea’s second-largest cargo vessel pursuant to civil asset forfeiture case filed in New York over accusations of involvement in money laundering transactions; North Korea demanded return of vessel, which had been physically held for a year, and convened rare press conference at UN 21 May to denounce U.S. over case. Inter-Korean tensions also on display; Pyongyang did not join South Korea in late April celebrations of first anniversary of 2018 Panmunjom inter-Korean summit, and North Korean state media 25 May accused South Korea of participating in military exercise in U.S. in Nov 2018.

Diplomatic tensions persisted as North Korea responded angrily to U.S.-South Korean military exercises, while Chairman Kim Jong-un secured Russian diplomatic support during late-April summit with President Putin. U.S. and South Korea 22 April began combined military air exercise, prompting strong criticism from Pyongyang, which accused them of violating self-imposed 2018 freeze on joint military exercises, raising concerns that Pyongyang may respond militarily in coming weeks. Diplomatic manoeuvring continued; Kim 24-26 April travelled to Vladivostok, Russia to meet with President Putin, first joint summit since Putin and former leader Kim Jong-il met 2011. Kim secured unambiguous Russian support, with visit widely perceived as message to U.S. that govt can look to other sources of international back-up. Kim also ended visit early, implying possible dissatisfaction at outcome. Earlier, Pyongyang responded angrily after U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo agreed with characterisation of Kim Jong-un as a “tyrant” during Senate hearing; 18 April said it would not negotiate with U.S. if Pompeo was present and accused him of hypocrisy and incompetence for alleged failures at Hanoi summit; Pyongyang also commented on “fortunate… personal relationship” between Kim and President Trump. North Korean Vice FM Choe Son-hui 30 April said U.S. will face “undesired consequences” if it fails to revise its position by end 2019. South Korean lawmaker 24 April told media that North Korea had replaced hardline general Kim Yong-chol as chief negotiator and head of United Front Department (UFD, which manages relations with South Korea), installing in his place former head of civilian inter-Korean exchanges Jang Kum-chol, generally regarded as more diplomatic; Pyongyang also conducted “ideological audit” of UFD and according to some reports executed four officials over failed Hanoi summit. Japan 23 April abandoned its calls for “maximum pressure” on North Korea and removed description of “grave and imminent” threat from North Korea’s missile program in its annual foreign policy report, seen as attempt to encourage dialogue.

Uncertainty over denuclearisation talks continued following abrupt end of late Feb U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi, also setting back inter-Korean ties. Observers blamed unrealistic expectations on both sides, while North Korean Vice FM Choe Son-hui 15 March told press conference in Pyongyang that U.S. President Trump had been prepared to consider sanctions relief with provisions to reapply them if Pyongyang violated commitments, but Sec State Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton blocked move; also said Pyongyang may rethink ban on nuclear and missile tests absent concessions from Washington. U.S. General Abrams told House Armed Services Committee that observed North Korean activities were “inconsistent with denuclearisation”. Following fraught discussions, South Korea and U.S. 8 March signed new one-year Special Measures Agreement, under which South Korea is to raise its annual cost-sharing contribution for U.S. Forces Korea to nearly $920mn, up from approximately $800 million during previous agreement; U.S. used opportunity to publicly reaffirm strength of alliance. Inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong thrown into turmoil as North Korean staff 22 March informed South Korea of intent to withdraw from operations, allegedly under direction of Kim Jong-un, leading to concerns of abandonment of key aspect of broader inter-Korean talks; however half of North Korean staff came to work 25 March, reportedly after Trump attempted to reverse sanctions on two Chinese entities accused of doing business with DPRK. Pyongyang 31 March said that 22 Feb break-in at its embassy in Spain was a “terrorist attack” and called for investigation, intimating the possibility of state-level involvement.

Second U.S.-DPRK summit on denuclearisation in Hanoi 27-28 Feb unexpectedly cut short on second day; U.S. President Trump told press conference that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s demand for U.S. to lift “all” sanctions was unacceptable, and Pyongyang’s offer to destroy only its main nuclear complex Yongbyon did not go far enough; said relationship between leaders was good; no commitment to hold another summit. North Korean foreign minister and vice minister held terse late-night press conference in Hanoi to deny some of Trump’s claims, especially request for full sanctions relief; state media mirrored Trump’s positive comments about summit atmosphere and leaders’ personal relations. In lead-up to summit, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Steve Biegun arrived in Pyongyang 5 Feb for talks on what the two sides might agree at summit, meeting with Special Representative for U.S. Affairs of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK Kim Hyok-chol 6-8 Feb. U.S. State Department reported they “discussed advancing Singapore summit commitments of complete denuclearisation, transforming U.S.-DPRK relations, and building a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula”. Further meetings held in Hanoi starting 19 February. U.S. and South Korea 5 Feb tentatively agreed revised Special Measures Agreement, one-year deal under which South Korea is to raise its annual cost-sharing contribution to nearly $1bn, up from approximately $800 million during previous five-year agreement. Gen. Robert Abrams, new commander of U.S. Forces Korea, told Senate Armed Services Committee hearing 13 Feb that North Korea remains a threat, saying “despite a reduction in tensions along the DMZ and a cessation of strategic provocations coupled with public statements of intent to denuclearize, little to no verifiable change has occurred in North Korea’s military capabilities”.

North Korea and U.S. tentatively agreed to second summit in Feb, and held significant working-level talks with South Korean involvement to lay groundwork; however, optimism tempered by substantive differences between sides. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in annual televised address 1 Jan pushed to revive dialogue with U.S. and move forward on collaborative projects with South Korea; emphasized potential for progress in talks with both Washington and Seoul as long as existing agreements are implemented. Kim declared that North Korea is not currently building, testing, using, or proliferating nuclear weapons; also warned U.S. against “attempts to unilaterally enforce something upon us” (meaning unilateral denuclearisation) and “imposing sanctions and pressure”, and warned against restarting U.S.-ROK joint military exercises or U.S. deploying strategic military assets to South Korea. Kim visited China for fourth time 7-10 Jan, reportedly agreeing with President Xi to “push for continuous new development of China-DPRK relations”. North Korea’s senior representative in talks with U.S., Gen. Kim Yong-chol, arrived in Washington 17 Jan for first round of talks with Sec State Pompeo since Oct. U.S. VP Pence 20 Jan said U.S. will lay out expectations for North Korea to “take concrete steps to begin to make real the denuclearization that Kim Jong-un committed to”. U.S. representative to working-level talks Stephen Biegun met with North Korean delegation in Sweden 19-21 Jan to prepare for summit; South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy took part in trilateral discussions. South Korean conservatives began to express concerns over U.S. aims in North Korea dialogue: that U.S. may be seeking deal with Pyongyang centered on its inter-continental ballistic missile capacity and freezing its nuclear weapons program but accepting its possession of nuclear weapons at existing levels. Deliveries of humanitarian aid to North Korea began after UN granted sanctions waivers to several international NGOs.

Uncertainty continued on future of denuclearisation talks. U.S. President Trump 1 Dec said he hoped to hold second denuclearisation summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Jan or Feb 2019; U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton said another summit necessary as North Koreans “have not lived up to the commitments so far” on dismantling nuclear weapons program as agreed at June 2018 summit in Singapore. U.S. 10 Dec announced new sanctions on three senior officials over alleged serious human rights abuses and issued further condemnation of North Korea’s abuses, “among the worst in the world”; Pyongyang 16 Dec warned sanctions could derail improved relations and block path to denuclearisation “forever”. Further, North Korean state media 20 Dec said denuclearisation of Korean peninsula includes “completely eliminating the U.S. nuclear threat to Korea”, in further indication of lack of agreement between negotiating sides over what denuclearisation would involve. Arriving in South Korea 19 Dec for visit aimed at getting denuclearisation negotiations back on track, U.S. Special Representative Stephen Biegun said U.S. plans to review its 2017 ban on U.S. citizens travelling to DPRK and other restrictions to help expedite humanitarian aid delivery to North Korea. U.S. and South Korea 21 Dec agreed ground-breaking ceremony for inter-Korean road and rail reconnection at Panmun Station near Kaesong to go ahead 26 Dec. In another confidence-building step, North and South Korean soldiers witnessed by media 12 Dec crossed border to conduct mutual inspections to verify dismantling of 22 guard posts in Demilitarised Zone (DMZ); South Korean President Moon called move “new milestone”. South Korean defence ministry 20 Dec in policy briefing said ongoing joint military exercises with U.S. should reduce in scale in 2019; govt’s defence acquisition agency 7 Dec said it plans to purchase dozens of U.S.-built ship-to-air missiles worth $300mn in ongoing effort to boost air defences against North Korea. North Korea 14 Dec expressed anger at South Korean military budget increase.

Talks between U.S. and North Korea almost ground to a halt with cancellation by North Korea of 7 Nov planned meeting in New York between U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo and North Korean counterpart Kim Yong-chol. Cancellation of talks followed statement from regime-linked North Korean think-tank floating idea that Pyongyang could restart nuclear activities if sanctions relief is not forthcoming. In interview with U.S. broadcaster 15 Nov, U.S. VP Mike Pence reaffirmed sanctions would stay in place until establishment of roadmap for North Korean denuclearisation, but avoided putting preconditions on holding of second U.S.-North Korea summit, declaring “it is imperative in this next summit that we come away with a plan for identifying all of the weapons … all the development sites, allowing for inspections of those sites and a plan for dismantling the nuclear weapons”. New U.S.-South Korea working group on North Korean issues meeting for first time 20 Nov coordinated UN Security Council waiver allowing joint survey to assess state of rail links between two Koreas; breaking with previous position, U.S. reportedly “expressed full and strong support” for joint survey; according to Sept Pyongyang Declaration, road and rail reconnection work should begin end-Nov/early Dec. U.S. 21 Nov announced planned Foal Eagle military exercise with South Korea early 2019 will be scaled down “to keep it at a level that will not be harmful to diplomacy”. U.S. think-tank CSIS 12 Nov released satellite photos reportedly showing that Pyongyang is maintaining over a dozen missile launch sites.

North and South Korea 15 Oct held high-level talks at border village Panmunjom, agreeing on steps toward implementing April Panmunjom Declaration, including general-level military talks on de-escalation and demilitarisation of demilitarised zone, or DMZ (26 Oct), sub-committee meeting on forestry cooperation (22 Oct), and groundbreaking ceremony for connection and modernisation of railways and roads across border scheduled to take place late Nov/early Dec. South Korean media 31 Oct reported National Intelligence Service had observed North Korea preparing for international inspections at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo’s fourth visit to Pyongyang 7-8 Oct included reportedly “good and productive” talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un; sides discussed implementation of June Singapore Joint Declaration and plans for second U.S.-DPRK summit, expected to take place early 2019. Pompeo also visited Japan and South Korea, after which he tweeted that he looked forward to ensuring “progress on inter-Korean relations is in lockstep with progress on denuclearization”. After trilateral consultation with South Korea and Japan, U.S. 19 Oct suspended large joint air defence military exercise with South Korea planned for Dec “to give the diplomatic process every opportunity to continue”. During mid-Oct Europe trip, South Korean President Moon met with French, UK and German leaders, asking them to play a role in future UN sanctions relief on North Korea if and when it denuclearises; Moon met with resistance and cautions against pursuing sanctions relief until Pyongyang takes concrete steps toward denuclearisation. South Korean opposition voiced objection to Moon administration’s 23 Oct decision to ratify inter-Korean military agreement without National Assembly approval, branding it unconstitutional.