South Korean President Moon visited Pyongyang 18-20 Sept for his third summit meeting this year with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, discussing denuclearisation, progress toward permanent peace, and prospects for North-South economic integration; issued Pyongyang Declaration stating Kim agreed to allow international observers to oversee dismantling of missile test site and launch pad, while expressing “willingness” to permanently dismantle Yeongbyeon nuclear complex provided U.S. takes unspecified “corresponding measures”. Still no commitments to providing nuclear inventory or clear denuclearisation timeline. In potential clash with sanctions enforcement, declaration called for rail and road links to be reconnected by year-end and proposals to reopen tours to Mt. Kumgang and Kaesong Industrial Complex. Summit came just after Pyongyang and Seoul opened joint liaison office in Kaesong region 14 Sept to facilitate communication and cooperation. U.S. 17 Sept convened urgent meeting of UN Security Council following confidential UN Panel of Experts report that reportedly cited Chinese and Russian help for North Korean sanctions evasion. Russia and China at 27 Sept Security Council meeting pushed for easing of sanctions to incentivise North Korea to open up; U.S. disagreed. U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo met with North Korean FM Ri Yong Ho on sidelines of UN General Assembly 26 Sept; Pompeo expected to visit Pyongyang in Oct to prepare for second U.S.-North Korea summit; U.S. President Trump praised Kim, said he did not have a time frame for denuclearisation, and said sanctions must stay for now. Widely rumoured visit by Chinese President Xi to Pyongyang to attend country’s 70th anniversary celebrations did not materialise; attending instead, Politburo Standing Committee member Li Zhanshu met with Kim Jong-un 10 Sept, described China’s hopes that North Korea and U.S. will implement bilateral summit agreements and declared China’s commitment to full denuclearisation of peninsula. Anniversary parade in Pyongyang 9 Sept conspicuously omitted displays of provocative military hardware; Trump described absence of ostensibly nuclear-capable inter-continental ballistic missiles as “big and very positive statement” by North.

North and South Korea 13 Aug held senior-level talks at Panmunjom to prepare for third summit between their leaders, which they agreed would take place in Sept. Other advances during month included full restoration of cross-border military communication line in east of Korean peninsula 15 Aug (following restoration in west in July), and organisation of family reunions at Mount Kumgang 20-26 Aug. In his annual Liberation Day speech 15 Aug, President Moon argued that advancing inter-Korean relations should be main driver of denuclearisation, not merely an outcome of improved U.S.-North Korean ties. U.S. 13 Aug said it is too early to consider ending Korean War, and that improvements in inter-Korean relations must occur “in lockstep” with progress toward denuclearisation. In report published 20 Aug, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it found no evidence North Korea had reduced nuclear activity, same day that South Korean media report citing anonymous U.S. official warned that inter-Korean liaison office set to open in Kaesong pursuant to April Panmunjom Declaration could represent violation of sanctions. U.S. President Trump 24 Aug cancelled trip to North Korea by Sec State Mike Pompeo without consulting State Department, citing lack of progress on denuclearisation talks and prompting angry response from Pyongyang; U.S. Sec Defence James Mattis 29 Aug said U.S. and South Korea may opt to resume large-scale military exercises. North Korea stepped up preparations for its celebrations of 70th anniversary of country’s founding 9 Sept; rumours suggest Chinese President Xi could attend celebrations or visit in preceding days. China and Russia 9 Aug blocked U.S. UN Security Council request to blacklist Russian, Chinese and North Korean individuals and entities alleged by U.S. to have helped North Korea evade restrictions on financial transactions, in bid to halt oil exports to North Korea; U.S. unilaterally imposed sanctions. Koreas marched together in opening ceremony of Asian Games in Indonesia and co-competed in six events late Aug.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Pyongyang 5-7 July for follow-up discussions after 12 June U.S.-DPRK Singapore summit; described talks as “productive” and “good-faith negotiations”, however North Korea released statement denouncing “unilateral and gangster-like [U.S.] demand for denuclearisation”, saying U.S. stance runs “against spirit” of Singapore summit, while saying that leader Kim Jong-un nevertheless wants to build on “friendly relationship and trust” forged with President Trump in Singapore. U.S. intelligence official 31 July told Reuters about further evidence of increased North Korean ballistic missile production activity, citing images showing trucks activity at Sanumdong factory. U.S. and North Korean officials 16 July met to coordinate repatriation of 50-55 sets of remains of U.S. servicemen killed in Korean War; repatriations took place 27 July. North Korea and South Korea resumed ship-to-ship radio communication links 1 July, ten years after their unilateral suspension by Seoul, which said move represents bid to defuse military tensions and prevent violent confrontation, especially around contested islands in Yellow (West) Sea. Koreas 17 July fully restored military communications line in western part of peninsula, suspended since early 2016 closure of Kaesong Industrial Complex. South Korea 10 July announced suspension of large-scale annual civil defence drills and independent military exercises, saying it plans to develop new drills to prepare for armed attacks “from outside as well as terrorism”; also affirmed intention that U.S. troops should remain in South Korea. South Korean defence ministry 24 July announced plan to gradually reduce troop numbers along demilitarised zone. Month saw further inter-Korean good-will gestures of sports engagements. South Korean workers travelled to Kaesong, North Korea, mid-July to repair facilities to be used for inter-Korean joint liaison office, as agreed during April inter-Korean summit in Panmunjom. China and North Korea 11 July celebrated 57th anniversary of DPRK-China Treaty of Friendship, which compels the two countries to defend one another in event of attack. China and Russia 20 July reportedly blocked U.S. request made at UN Security Council to stop oil transfers to North Korea.

North Korea leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump held historic bilateral summit in Singapore 12 June, issuing joint statement incorporating mutual commitment to establishing new relations, building peace and stability regime on Korean peninsula, and recovery and repatriation of remains of American prisoners of war and soldiers missing in action in North Korea; and reaffirmation from Pyongyang of 27 April Panmunjom Declaration commitment to work toward “complete denuclearization” of peninsula; U.S. also committed to provide security guarantees to Pyongyang. In press conference following summit, Trump pledged that U.S. would suspend annual military exercises with South Korea; Seoul reportedly not forewarned of move, prompting concerns over alliance coordination; U.S. VP Pence and White House later gave reassurances that U.S. military would continue to train with South Korean counterparts and conduct military drills, but not large-scale joint exercises, which Trump called “war games”. Some commentators criticised vagueness of summit statement, lack of concrete commitments. Nevertheless, Beijing 12 June called for UN Security Council to review sanctions regime; Russia also called for sanctions relief; U.S. and South Korea 18 June suspended planning for annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise; and Seoul 20 June cancelled three-day Taeguk command-post exercise scheduled for late June. After meeting with South Korean and Japanese diplomats and Chinese President Xi, U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo said countries agreed to keep UN sanctions in place until denuclearisation is complete. Kim Jong-un arrived in Beijing 19 June for his third visit to China since March, and first official one. Pyongyang and Seoul 14 June held first high-level military talks since December 2007; agreed to restore cross-border communication lines, implement 2004 agreement to prevent unexpected clashes in West Sea, and discussed withdrawal of heavy weapons from border area. In contrast with diplomatic progress, 38 North website cited 21 June satellite imagery showing North Korea making rapid upgrades to its Yongbyon nuclear facility, while NBC news 30 June quoted U.S. officials saying Pyongyang had stepped up enriched uranium production at several secret sites in recent months.

Month saw flurry of diplomacy to keep U.S.-North Korea dialogue process moving forward ahead of summit scheduled for 12 June. Chinese President Xi Jinping 7-8 May hosted North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for second unannounced visit in Dalian; Kim reportedly said he hoped to take “phased”, “synchronised” denuclearisation measures provided hostile policies and threats are removed; discussed traditional friendship with Chinese counterpart, China’s willingness to play constructive role, and North Korea’s development. Chinese foreign minister and head of Chinese Communist Party’s international department visited Pyongyang ahead of meeting, as did U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo 9 May. Xi spoke with U.S. President Trump 8 May and reportedly agreed to continue implementing sanctions. Rare trilateral China-Japan-South Korea leaders’ summit in Tokyo 9 May issued statement supporting denuclearisation (see China/Japan). Relations between the two Koreas and U.S. thrown into doubt after U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton 29 April and 13 May said North Korean denuclearisation could follow “Libya model”: Pyongyang 16 May accused U.S. of seeking unilateral disarmament rather than dialogue. U.S. VP Mike Pence 22 May warned that situation “will only end like the Libyan model … if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal”; senior North Korean official 24 May said situation “entirely dependent upon the decision and behaviour of the U.S.”. Trump 25 May issued letter cancelling planned meeting with Kim, however U.S. govt 26 May said White House was still planning for summit to proceed. Deterioration in relations occurred as U.S.-ROK military exercises took place in South 11-25 May; North Korea issued several statements mid-May accusing U.S. of introducing B-52 nuclear bombers, F-22 Raptor stealth fighters and nuclear strategic assets to region. Kim Jong-un 25 May requested meeting with South Korean President Moon, which took place in secrecy 26 May north of Panmunjom, ostensibly to get Trump-Kim meeting back on track; followed Moon’s 22 May meeting with Trump in Washington. Pompeo met with senior North Korean official Kim Yong-chol in New York 31 May to discuss negotiations. Pyongyang 24 May proceeded with dismantling only nuclear test site at Punggye-ri.

Month saw important moves toward rapprochement between North and South Korea with 27 April joint summit, which saw Kim Jong-un becoming first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea for historic meeting with President Moon. Kim called meeting “starting point” for peace process and pledged “new history” for two countries; leaders issued joint statement committing to seek “complete denuclearisation” of peninsula; agreed to regular phone calls, to meet in Pyongyang later in year, to work on issues including family reunifications and transport links, and to suspend loudspeaker broadcasts and other propaganda across borders. China and U.S. welcomed agreement. Ahead of summit, North Korean state news agency (KCNA) 21 April announced Pyongyang’s suspension of all nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests on grounds it had achieved “nuclear weaponisation”, reported North Korea would close Punggye-ri underground nuclear test site – although conclusions of Chinese study released 23 April, revealing partial collapse of site in Sept 2017, cast doubt among observers on Pyongyang’s motivations. Earlier in month, Kim attended concert given by delegation of South Korean musicians who travelled to Pyongyang 31 March-3 April, met musicians and accompanying South Korean politicians. KCNA 10 April for first time publically acknowledged ongoing dialogue with U.S. when it cautioned dissenting voices against spoiling nascent atmosphere of reconciliation. U.S. President Trump 18 April reported Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Pyongyang 30 March-1 April for talks at “extremely high levels” to prepare for Trump-Kim summit; said U.S. will continue campaign of “maximum pressure” until North Korea agrees to denuclearisation. Seoul reported that Kim offered to invite foreign experts to witness decommissioning of nuclear test site ahead of meeting with Trump.

Month saw extensive South Korean shuttle diplomacy to push forward inter-Korean dialogue, and ended with Chinese state media confirming that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un paid “unofficial visit” to Beijing 25-28 March, where he pledged commitment to denuclearising Korean peninsula and confirmed he would meet with South Korea and U.S. leaders in April and May. South Korea 5 March sent two envoys to Pyongyang with aim to discuss U.S.-North Korean talks “aimed at denuclearisation” and inter-Korean relations. Surprising many observers, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un opted to lead talks with five-person South Korean delegation, and, together with his wife Ri Sol-ju, hosted dinner that was later broadcast on state TV. South Korean side reported that Kim said Pyongyang was willing to denuclearise under certain circumstances and offered to meet U.S. President Trump; Kim also requested South Korea send delegation of musicians and athletes to Pyongyang 31 March-3 April; inter-Korean summit slated for 27 April. South Korean envoys visited Washington 8 March, where Trump agreed to meet Kim Jong-un “by May”; and Beijing and Tokyo 12-13 March, where they sought leaders’ support for negotiation process. Chinese data released late month showed drastic reduction in Chinese exports of petroleum products, coal and other materials since late 2017. Separately, Japan offered to cover expenses for denuclearisation verification measures if an agreement is reached. North Korean and Swedish foreign ministers met 16-18 March, reportedly discussed fate of three Americans currently detained in North Korea; South Korean media suggested sides agreed on their release, but U.S. denied. North Korean foreign ministry’s deputy director general for North American affairs subsequently flew to Helsinki to lead track 1.5 discussions with former diplomats and researchers from South Korea and U.S., joined by North Korean permanent representative to UN. China 30 March said it would soon end informal economic sanctions it has imposed on South Korea over its deployment of THAAD U.S. anti-missile system.

Pyongyang sent 47-strong sporting delegation of athletes and cheerleaders and delegation of senior officials to attend Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in South Korea, part of thawing of bilateral relations between Koreas. Delegation included Kim Jong-un’s sister Yo-jong and titular head of state Kim Yong-nam, highest ranking North Korean official ever to visit South. Start of games saw intense period of multilateral diplomacy: meeting with South Korean President Moon 8 Feb, Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member Han Zheng pledged Chinese diplomatic and practical support for inter-Korean dialogue; Moon 9 Feb met U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, during which they both reaffirmed policy of pressure plus engagement; same day met Kim Yong-nam at pre-games reception also attended by Pence, who ignored North Korean delegation. Moon 10 Feb hosted entire North Korean delegation at presidential residence, during which Kim Yo-jong delivered letter inviting Moon to attend inter-Korean summit in North Korea at unspecified time; Moon 17 Feb said it was too early to think about summit. Despite push by Moon for dialogue between North Korea and U.S., North Korean delegation 10 Feb reportedly cancelled meeting with Pence scheduled for same day because they were unhappy with Pence’s strong denunciation of North Korea’s human rights record and threats of further sanctions. U.S. 23 Feb announced largest round yet of sanctions against North Korea. Other inter-Korean exchanges included joint pop concerts and cheerleading and taekwondo performances; North and South marched under unified flag during 9 Feb Olympics opening ceremony and fielded joint ice hockey team. North Korean delegation 25 Feb returned to South Korea for closing ceremony, met Moon and said Pyongyang is open to talks with U.S.; U.S. said any talks must lead to Pyongyang ending its nuclear and missile programs. Observers expect resumption of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises late March to put North-South rapprochement under strain.

North and South Korea conducted multiple rounds of peace talks and agreed to conduct several joint activities in coming months, promoting route to de-escalation of tensions and reduced risk of conflict amid opportunity presented by North’s participation in Feb Winter Olympics; however observers cite likely purpose of Pyongyang’s outreach to drive wedge into international consensus, ROK-U.S. alliance and South Korean domestic politics, and risk of resumed escalation following Olympics. In annual televised New Year’s address 1 Jan, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un issued offer of immediate and unconditional talks with South Korea. South Korea responded with suggestion of 9 Jan meeting on its side of Military Demarcation Line, at which sides agreed North Korea would participate in Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in South in Feb; also reopened cross-border military-to-military communications line to facilitate logistical discussions. Further talks 15 Jan resulted in agreement that North Korean cultural sector delegation would make two-day inspection trip to South, which took place 21-22 Jan. At 17 Jan talks, Pyongyang and Seoul agreed to march under one flag at Winter Olympics opening ceremony 9 Feb and compete together in several sports. South Korea and U.S. 4 Jan agreed to postpone joint military exercises until after Winter Olympics and Paralympics, which run until 18 March, though U.S. officials responded to inter-Korean talks with mixed messages: U.S. Ambassador to UN Nikki Haley 3 Jan dismissed prospects of dialogue, saying U.S. does not take talks “seriously” unless they make moves toward “ban” on North Korean nuclear weapons; National Security Advisor McMaster warned 5 Jan that purpose of Kim Jong-un’s outreach was to “drive a wedge” between Seoul and Washington, a widely shared view. In his 29 Jan State of the Union address, President Trump said “past experience has taught us that complacency and concessions only invite aggression and provocation” and that he would not repeat “mistakes of past administrations”. U.S. 24 Jan announced further sanctions on several entities, people and ships it said helped Pyongyang’s weapons program.

South Korea, U.S. and UN imposed fresh sanctions on North Korea following its 29 Nov intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. South Korea 10 Dec introduced sanctions against twenty North Korean individuals and companies, largely symbolic due to absence since 2010 of trade relations with Pyongyang. UN Security Council 22 Dec passed resolution requiring countries to expel North Korean workers and restricting North Korea’s access to refined petroleum products, crude oil and industrial machinery. U.S. 26 Dec sanctioned two officials it said were “key leaders” of North Korea’s missile program. China and Russia denied reports they had been transferring oil at sea to North Korea in recent months in violation of sanctions. South Korea and U.S. 2-8 Dec held largest-ever version of their Vigilant Ace combined air force drill. Japan 8 Dec announced plans to buy air-to-surface cruise missiles capable of striking North Korea, and Japan’s cabinet 19 Dec approved plans to purchase two U.S.-built anti-missile systems. U.S. Sec Defense Jim Mattis 15 Dec said North Korea’s ICBMs do not yet pose “capable threat” to continental U.S.. During state visit to China by South Korean President Moon 13-16 Dec, China and South Korea agreed to establish hotline and issued four-point list of principles for dealing with North Korea crisis, emphasising unacceptability of war, commitment to denuclearisation of peninsula, peaceful resolution of North Korea issue, and improved inter-Korean relations; agreed to disagree about presence of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) U.S. missile defence system in South Korea. Chinese Premier Li said he anticipates “springtime” for bilateral ties with S Korea.