North Korea 29 Nov said it had fired new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), its first ICBM test since Hwasong-14 launches in July, and first missile test since Sept; missile reportedly reached 4,500km altitude, highest of any previous missile, before landing 1,000km from launch site in Sea of Japan; experts say this suggests it could hit most mainland U.S. targets. Pyongyang said missile can carry “super-large heavy warhead” and marks “completion” of its rocket development program. In response, South Korea fired several missiles into sea; UN Security Council convened emergency meeting; U.S. President Trump threatened major sanctions. China and South Korea 31 Oct normalised bilateral relations after year of Chinese pressure over installation of U.S. THAAD missile system in South Korean territory; later agreed South Korean President Moon to visit China mid-Dec. U.S. President Trump held summit with South Korean president and addressed parliament during visit to Seoul 7-8 Nov. On sidelines of APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Vietnam, Japanese PM Abe and Chinese President Xi 11 Nov agreed to work more closely on North Korea and to hold trilateral summit at earliest possible date. During visit by senior Chinese official to Pyongyang 17-19 Nov, China and North Korea reiterated commitment to continue developing bilateral relations. U.S. 20 Nov relisted North Korea as state sponsor of terrorism, having removed it in 2008 as part of incentives linked to Six-Party Talks process; announcing decision, Trump accused Pyongyang of “assassinations on foreign soil” and Treasury sanctioned a number of Chinese companies for trading with Pyongyang. In phone call with Trump 29 Nov, Chinese President Xi reiterated desire for diplomatic resolution to crisis. U.S. and Chinese generals held low-profile talks in Washington 29 Nov on how to communicate in crisis situations. During trip to U.S. late-Oct-early Nov, high ranking North Korean defector Thae Yong-ho advocated policy of maximum pressure but also urged engagement and clearer messaging with DPRK; also noted that Kim Jong-un’s legitimacy rests on completion of nuclear deterrent, which precludes denuclearisation.

North Korea refrained from conducting missile or nuclear test of any kind during month; some observers speculated that Pyongyang sought to avoid antagonising Beijing during 19th Communist Party of China National Congress 18-24 Oct; or drive wedge between U.S., Seoul and Beijing ahead of visit by President Trump to South Korea and China in early Nov. After visiting North Korea early month, Russian MP Anton Morozov said country preparing to test long-range missile capable of reach U.S. west coast. U.S. flew two B-1B bombers over Korean peninsula 11 Oct in night time exercise joined by Japanese and South Korean fighter jets. U.S. intelligence chief Mike Pompeo 20 Oct said Pyongyang could be just months away from being capable of hitting U.S. with nuclear weapons. North Korean foreign ministry’s director general of North America Affairs, Choi Sun-hee, appeared at Moscow Nonproliferation Conference 19-21 Oct: laying out North Korea’s demands, said country would not return to Six-Party Talks and sought talks only with U.S., “the country that is trying to pressure and to bring about the collapse of North Korea”. Also said “nuclear armament is critical” in facing “U.S. policy of hostility”. Meeting with his South Korean counterpart during regional tour 28 Oct, U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said threat of North Korean nuclear attack “is accelerating”; also said U.S. goal “is not war” but denuclarisation of peninsula and added that defending Seoul against artillery barrage from DPRK “infeasible”. U.S. 26 Oct imposed sanctions on seven North Koreans and three entities due to human rights abuses. In Pyongyang, leader Kim Jong-un promoted his sister Kim Yo-jong to politburo, country’s highest decision-making body.

Concerns grew over escalating in rhetoric between U.S. and North Korea, which conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test to date 3 Sept. Resulting artificial earthquake suggested yield of approximately 150 kilotons; Pyongyang asserted device was a thermonuclear (hydrogen) bomb, which is preferable for missile-delivery nuclear weapon system. U.S. 6 Sept circulated draft UN resolution in response to nuclear test, included bans on textile and labour exports, oil embargo, sanctions against national airline and asset freeze on Kim Jong-un, however measures watered down during negotiations between U.S., Russian and Chinese representatives, amid Russian objection to complete oil embargo. Security Council 11 Sept adopted Resolution 2375 banning supply to North Korea of all condensates and natural gas liquids, and all refined petroleum products beyond two million barrels per year; also bans North Korean exports of fabrics and apparel. North Korea 15 Sept launched another intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) over northern Japan, similar to 29 Aug IRBM. U.S. President Trump attacked North Korea in his address to UN General Assembly 19 Sept, calling Kim regime “depraved” citing inter alia rights abuses and its “reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles”; said if Kim Jong-un threatens U.S. or its allies, U.S. would “totally destroy” North Korea. President Trump 21 Sept issued sweeping Executive Order reinforcing unilateral sanctions on North Korea. U.S. air force 23 Sept flew bombers east of North Korea. North Korean foreign minister 25 Sept said Trump had declared war on North Korea in 23 Sept tweet, giving Pyongyang right to take countermeasures including shooting down U.S. bombers; White House spokesperson denied U.S. had declared war, China called for restraint. U.S. Sec State Rex Tillerson during visit to China 30 Sept said U.S. communicating directly with Pyongyang. South Korea’s Unification Ministry 21 Sept approved $8m aid package for vulnerable populations in North Korea, to be delivered through UN agencies, reaffirming Seoul’s intent to separate humanitarian and political/military issues.

North Korea’s launch of intermediate range ballistic missile over northern Japan 29 Aug, triggering warning sirens in region, prompted condemnatory UN Security Council (UNSC) statement and added to tensions over country’s nuclear program; Pyongyang said more ballistic missile launches to come. Earlier in month, U.S. responded to North Korea’s two July intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests by test-launching ICBM from its west coast 2 Aug. President Trump 8 Aug warned that provocative DPRK actions would be met with “fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen”; Pyongyang responded announcing plans to test-launch missiles into area close to U.S. territory Guam if U.S. continued with its threatening stance, including participation in annual joint military exercise in South Korea. Exercise went ahead as planned 21-31 Aug, prompting North Korea to repeat its Guam warning; Russia 23 Aug flew nuclear-capable bombers around Korean peninsula. UNSC strengthened sanctions against North Korea 5 Aug, unanimously adopting Resolution 2371 banning country’s principal exports (coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore, seafood). Chinese Foreign Minister Wang 7 Aug told his North Korean counterpart UN sanctions are “necessary, but not the end-goal”, China wants North Korea to return to negotiating table. North Korea fired several short-range projectiles into sea off east coast 26 Aug; U.S. Sec State Tillerson 22 Aug voiced openness to possible dialogue, 27 Aug said U.S. would continue working with allies to bring Pyongyang to negotiating table. U.S. military chief 15 Aug held unprecedented discussions on contingency plans with Chinese military command responsible for north-eastern region bordering North Korea. South Korean President Moon in 15 Aug speech reiterated that “military action on the Korean Peninsula can only be decided by South Korea”, which “will block war by whatever means necessary”; 17 Aug said he would consider sending special envoy to Pyongyang for talks if Pyongyang freezes its nuclear and missile tests.

North Korea 4 July launched what it claimed, and most others including U.S. agreed, was inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), landing 500 miles away in Sea of Japan; followed up with second confirmed test of Hwasong-14 ICBM 28 July. In UN Security Council deliberations following first test, Russia denied launch was ICBM, calling it an intermediate range rocket and vetoing draft joint statement that would have paved way for punitive sanctions. North Korea’s UN ambassador 10 July circulated letter claiming launch was defensive act, asserting North Korea more transparent about pursuit of ICBM capability than other states and criticising U.S. hostility. Senior U.S. military official 18 July said North Korea lacks ability to launch accurate missile strike on U.S.; while Pentagon intelligence agency reportedly assessed Pyongyang will be able to field nuclear-capable ICBM in 2018. Responding to second test, South Korea and U.S. conducted joint military drill 29 July, and South Korean military said it and U.S. would deploy “strategic assets”. China continued to press for all parties to accept its “dual-track”, “suspension for suspension” proposal, reiterated in 4 July China-Russia joint statement. U.S. 11 July announced successful test of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system. Seoul 17 July proposed military talks with Pyongyang for 21 July to discuss ways to ease border tensions, and humanitarian talks for 1 Aug to arrange family reunions. North Korea did not respond to proposal, which comes ahead of U.S.-South Korean military drills planned for Aug. North Korean team late June joined Taekwondo demonstration in South Korea; North Korea’s International Olympic Committee member Chang Ung reacted negatively to proposal by President Moon for unified Korean team at 2018 Winter Olympics, telling South Korean media “politics lies above sports”.

UN Security Council 2 June adopted Resolution 2356 in response to North Korea (DPRK)’s recent missile tests, accusing DPRK of “flagrant disregard” for previous UN resolutions. DPRK state media accused U.S. and China of conspiring to initiate resolution. Beijing called on Pyongyang to “heed the call of the international community” and said China committed to denuclearisation of Korean Peninsula, but wishes for “good-neighbourly and friendly” relations with DPRK. During meeting of high level officials in Washington 21-22 June, U.S. reportedly told China to exert greater economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang; Chinese media reported two sides agreed on need for complete denuclearisation. U.S. official 23 June said DPRK had tested rocket engine that could be part of preparation for intercontinental ballistic missile, and officials late month reported Trump growing more frustrated with China. U.S. Department of Treasury 29 June issued notification against China’s Bank of Dandong plus one Chinese company and two Chinese individuals it said were linked to DPRK. Came as South Korean (ROK) President Moon arrived in Washington for summit 29-30 June; initial reports imply areas of consensus between ROK and U.S., with Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) deployment to ROK, Trump’s wish to change U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and Moon’s DPRK policy as three key variables. 29 June Treasury designations reported as timed to pressure China prior to G20 summit in Hamburg 7-8 July; Treasury denied. U.S. anger grew after American tourist Otto Warmbier, arrested during trip to North Korea in March 2016 and sentenced to fifteen years in labour camp for “hostile acts” against state over alleged attempt to steal propaganda banner, died 19 June days after his release and repatriation to U.S., suffering from “severe neurological injury” sustained after his conviction.

Tensions between U.S. and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) remain high as DPRK conducted three further missile tests, including two developmental designs, one solid-fuel, ground-to-ground Pukguksong-2 21 May, and a short-range ballistic missile 14 May, which travelled over 700km before landing in international waters south of Vladivostok; and ageing Scud-C missile 29 May, likely launched for operational reasons. China 10 May made rare high-profile announcement of missile test of its own, which Chinese analysts said conveyed Beijing’s opposition to controversial U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile system deployed in South Korea (ROK). U.S. 30 May conducted successful anti-inter-continental ballistic missile test. In South Korea, Moon Jae-in, who favours improving inter-Korean relations, won 9 May presidential election with 41% of vote; China immediately issued invitation to South Korea to attend Belt and Road summit, possibly indicating desire to improve relations. Forum also brought South and North Korean delegations together for impromptu meeting on sidelines; ROK delegation reportedly delivered criticism of DPRK missile launch but also said it sensed desire for talks from DPRK side. U.S. delegation issued objection to DPRK’s presence. U.S. 16 May said it believed it could persuade China to impose new UN sanctions on DPRK; country’s UN Ambassador Nikki Haley indicated discussions on new resolution underway, Washington would target and “call out” countries supporting DPRK. Moon 17 May warned there was “high possibility” of conflict with DPRK, his govt would pursue two-track policy of sanctions and dialogue. Also said he has selected special envoys to travel to ROK’s partners to improve relations; envoy in Beijing 18 May met with President Xi, who said China is ready to work with ROK to return bilateral ties to normal. Japanese PM Abe meeting with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi 31 May said wants to work with China to resolve DPRK crisis peacefully.

Tensions mounted between North Korea (DPRK) and U.S. amid concerns DPRK could conduct sixth nuclear test at any time; U.S. rhetoric sharpened late month while China made repeated calls for restraint. U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi discussed DPRK during their first bilateral summit 6-7 April. Pyongyang launched possibly unsuccessful missile tests 5, 16 and 29 April; South Korea (ROK) 6 April tested ballistic missile with 800km range. U.S. 9 April announced U.S. carrier strike group Carl Vinson had been sent near Korean peninsula, prompting concern in Pyongyang; announcement later revealed to be false. DPRK 15 April revealed new missile mock-ups in parade marking 105th anniversary of birth of Kim Il-sung; 25 April held large-scale artillery drills near Wonsan. U.S. and ROK conducted military manoeuvres NE of Seoul the following day. U.S. and ROK reported Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) will soon be operational. Satellite imagery of Punggye-re nuclear test site posted 21 April appeared to show ability to conduct sixth nuclear test “at any time”. In 27 April interview Trump warned “major, major conflict” with DPRK is possible, said he was seeking diplomatic solution. U.S. Sec State Tillerson 27 April said U.S. open to negotiating with DPRK; addressing special session of UNSC 28 April called for tougher sanctions, said “all options for responding to future provocations must remain on the table”. China said willing to work with U.S. on finding lasting peaceful resolution to tensions on peninsula. Trump’s 27 April remarks that he wants Seoul to pay for THAAD system and wants to renegotiate “horrible” trade agreement caused anger in ROK, where cooperation with U.S. is subject of debate ahead of 9 May presidential election. Reports emerged late April of possible fuel shortages in DPRK including Pyongyang.

DPRK continued ballistic missile tests in violation of UNSC resolutions, with 6 March test from Dongchang-ri launch site of four ballistic missiles that landed in Sea of Japan within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone; 18 March ground test of new high-thrust missile engine; and 22 March attempt at third missile launch that reportedly failed. DPRK 21 March said it is in final stages of preparing intercontinental ballistic missile test, is seeking “pre-emptive first strike capability”; ROK and U.S. military officials 24 March warned sixth nuclear test could happen “at any time”. U.S. and ROK 1 March began largest ever annual joint military exercises running to 30 April; Pyongyang said it would continue tests in response. U.S. Pacific Command 6 March began rolling out Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile and radar system to ROK’s Osan air base; UN Panel of Experts late Feb issued report criticising insufficient and inconsistent implementation of sanctions and documenting DPRK’s efforts to evade them. Unnamed U.S. officials mid-March told media Trump administration considering secondary sanctions on Chinese companies that enable DPRK’s weapons programs; Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security 17 March released study indicating China had allowed DPRK to import large quantities of mercury and lithium hydroxide in violation of sanctions. U.S. Sec State Tillerson 17 March said in Seoul that “strategic patience” policy was over and U.S. would not begin negotiations without prior denuclearisation, might make pre-emptive strike if DPRK elevated nuclear threat to unacceptable level. Visiting Beijing 28 Feb-4 March, DPRK Deputy FM reportedly discussed bilateral relations with senior Chinese officials including FM Wang Yi, first known high-level meeting since June 2016. During month Chinese FM Wang Yi and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director General Xiao Qiang both called on DPRK to suspend nuclear weapon and missile tests while in parallel U.S. and ROK would halt military exercises; U.S. dismissed idea. Malaysia 31 March allowed body of Kim Jong-nam, half-brother of DPRK leader who was killed in Kuala Lumpur airport in Feb, to return to Pyongyang along with three suspected DPRK agents thought to have assassinated him, in return for nine Malaysians who had been prevented from leaving DPRK during episode.

New DPRK missile test and assassination of ruler’s estranged half-brother in Malaysia prompted widespread international condemnation. Pyongyang announced successful test of new medium- to long-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warhead 12 Feb, in further violation of UN sanctions. Kim Jong-nam, estranged half-brother of DPRK leader Kim Jong-un, murdered in Kuala Lumpur airport, Malaysia 13 Feb reportedly using highly toxic nerve agent. Malaysian police arrested two women directly involved, nationals of Vietnam and Indonesia, later arrested N Korean man, said four other N Korean suspects had fled country. U.S. Sec State Tillerson at first meeting with Chinese FM Wang 17 Feb urged China to “use all available tools” to moderate Pyongyang’s “destabilizing” behaviour. Chinese FM Wang 17 Feb supported resuming six-party talks; DPRK pulled out in 2009. China 18 Feb announced suspension of coal imports from DPRK until end 2017; later said year’s imports had already approached upper limits specified in Nov 2016 UNSC resolution. China 23 Feb denied reports it had increased troop presence on border with DPRK after Kim Jong-nam’s killing. U.S. denied visa for top DPRK envoy late Feb, reportedly forcing cancellation of planned track 1.5 talks with U.S. experts; Washington denied talks were scheduled. U.S. Sec Defense Jim Mattis, visiting Seoul 3 Feb, warned DPRK of “effective and overwhelming” response to attack on U.S. or allies, any use of nuclear weapons. South Korea 3 Feb reported DPRK’s minister of state security Kim Won-hong had been dismissed mid-Jan on charges of corruption, abuse of power and human rights abuses. ROK 27 Feb reported Pyongyang had executed at least five Ministry of State Security senior officials.