China’s President Xi reiterated goal of reunification, if necessary by force, as Beijing continued high level of aerial activity around island.

China and Taiwan stated respective positions on island’s status. In his speech at opening of 20th Party Congress, Chinese President Xi 16 Oct said China will strive for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but it will never promise to renounce use of force and it reserves option of taking all necessary measures; he warned of “interference by external forces”. In response, Taiwan’s President Tsai same day reiterated Taiwan’s “territorial sovereignty, independence and democracy cannot be compromised” and “military conflict is not an option”. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 26 Oct said Beijing had decided “status quo was no longer acceptable”. Earlier, Tsai’s 10 Oct expressed willingness to work with Beijing “to find a mutually agreeable arrangement”, potentially signalling Taipei’s goodwill to improve cross-straits relations. As of 30 Oct, 425 Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ); 97 aircraft crossed unofficial demarcation known as median line. Chinese naval vessels were sighted 104 times during month.

U.S. reportedly sought deeper defence cooperation with Taiwan. Nikkei Asia media outlet 19 Oct announced U.S. was considering plan for joint weapons production with Taiwan as part of broader move towards greater security assistance; announcement came after Taiwan 1 Oct commissioned largest locally built ship, 10,600-ton amphibious vessel Yu Shan, in significant milestone in govt’s effort to boost indigenous defence production. German-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Group Chairman Klaus-Peter Willsch 2 Oct commenced five-day visit to Taiwan; members of Bundestag's Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid 23 Oct also visited.

China maintained high-level of incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone, while U.S. continued to signal strong support to Taipei as President Biden vowed to aid island in event of attack.

China conducted daily aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). China dispatched 377 planes as of 21 Sept into Taiwan’s ADIZ; notably, 181 aircraft crossed unofficial demarcation known as median line, which has become near-daily routine since visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Aug. Chinese naval vessels were sighted 133 times in surrounding waters in Sept. Taiwan 1 Sept shot down Chinese civilian-operated drone in Kinmen county, off China’s Fujian province; Taiwanese military 5 Sept confirmed Chinese UAVs crossed median line for first time. U.S. and Canada 20 Sept held joint operation with destroyer USS Higgins and frigate HMCS Vancouver, transiting strait for second time in three weeks; China slammed exercise as provocative.

U.S. representatives continued visits, U.S. legislators approved new Taiwan act and President Biden vowed to defend island. Following Pelosi’s 2 Aug visit, U.S. engagement remained high. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey 1 Sept and Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy 8 Sept began visits. Five Taiwanese legislators 13 Sept visited U.S. capital for closed-door meetings with U.S. officials. Members of Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, hosted by U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, 15 Sept called for greater support for Taiwan and expressed opposition to any unilateral change of status quo. U.S. Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee 15 Sept approved Taiwan Policy Act; Chairman Bob Menendez called it “most comprehensive restructuring of U.S. policy toward Taiwan since […] 1979”, with notable provisions including $6.5bn military aid to Taiwan through 2027; China same day said bill will “greatly shake the political foundation of China-U.S. relations” if passed. In fourth and clearest remark since assuming office, Biden 18 Sept said U.S. would defend Taiwan from any “unprecedented attack”. China 23 Sept accused U.S. of sending “very wrong, dangerous signals” during meeting with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken, who same day affirmed “long-standing one-China policy”.

Tensions soared as China conducted large-scale live-fire exercises around Taiwan as part of its multi-pronged response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to island. As U.S. congressional delegation led by Nancy Pelosi 2 Aug landed in Taiwan, China announced live-fire air-naval drills in six strategic maritime areas around Taiwan running 4-7 Aug and later extended to 10 Aug, with over 100 planes flying in first two days. Taiwanese defence ministry 3 Aug decried exercise as akin to blockade and claimed China fired 11 ballistic missiles into waters near Taiwan and over island for first time (some of which landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone – see China/Japan). Additionally, Chinese aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone skyrocketed, totalling 751 planes 1-28 Aug with 337 crossing median line; Chinese naval vessels were sighted 173 times 5-28 Aug, with many vessels also crossing median line. Responding to surge in Chinese activities, Taiwanese troops 4 Aug fired warning flares at two drones spotted near Kinmen county, 10km from China’s Fujian province; 30 Aug fired warning shots at Chinese drone operating in same area. Taiwan 9, 11 Aug held live-fire artillery drills in Pingtung county and 17 Aug held fighter jet drill. Alongside military action, Taiwan govt websites suffered increased cyberattacks, and China 3 Aug banned imports of many Taiwanese goods. China 5 Aug imposed economic sanctions on Pelosi and her direct family, and same day cancelled eight planned dialogues with U.S., including theater command talks, defence policy coordination and climate change talks. U.S. 4 Aug called Chinese response overreaction and effort to “change a status quo”. G7 3 Aug condemned Beijing’s “aggressive military activity” and Japan, U.S. and Australia 7 Aug urged China to cease military exercises. China 15 Aug announced new round of joint combat readiness patrols around Taiwan following U.S. Democrat Senator Ed Markey's visit to island, and next day announced sanctions on ten Taiwanese political figures. Two U.S. warships, USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville, 28 Aug transited Taiwan Strait; Beijing said it was monitoring movement in comparatively restrained response. U.S. governor of Arizona 30 Aug visited island.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit in August raised risk of unintended crisis; Chinese aircraft continued incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone and made rare crossing of unofficial “median line”. Speculation over potential visit to Taiwan of U.S. Senator Nancy Pelosi during her regional tour that began 31 July significantly raised tensions between U.S. and China and risk of unintended crisis in Aug. China late month warned of military response and said visit would seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and political foundation of China-U.S. relations, as it 30 July announced live-fire drills off of Fujian province, which sits across from Taiwan. U.S. military assets, including aircraft carrier, were also moved closer to Taiwan at end of month. Meanwhile, Chinese incursions into Taiwanese air defence identification zone continued during month, totalling 70 aircraft as of 30 July. Notably, Taiwan 8 July scrambled jets and “forcefully expelled” Chinese fighters that crossed median line – unofficial and tacitly recognised demarcation in Taiwan Strait – in rare “provocative” act that coincided with U.S. Senator Rick Scott’s visit to Taiwan; Chinese military same day announced it had conducted joint combat readiness patrols and combat drills in sea and airspace around Taiwan in response to U.S. support for Taiwan independence. In 7 July joint chiefs of staff meeting between U.S. and China, China demanded U.S. “cease U.S.-Taiwan military collusion”, warned provocations against China’s core interests would “be met with a firm counter-attack”. In talks with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken, Chinese FM Wang Yi 9 July said U.S. should “stop hollowing out or distorting” one-China policy; Blinken same day said U.S. had no intention of supporting Taiwan independence or changing the status quo in Taiwan Strait. U.S. State Dept 15 July announced $108mn sale of arms to Taiwan; China 18 July demanded U.S. cancel sale. Former U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper 18 July visited Taiwan, and urged Washington to move away from policy of strategic ambiguity. EU Parliament VP Nicola Beer 19 July visited Taiwan, affirmed island as member of “family of democracies”.

China conducted third-largest aerial incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone this year and vowed to fight at all costs if Taiwan pursued independence. Chinese incursions into Taiwanese airspace continued through month, totalling 81 planes as of 27 June. Notably, 29 aircraft 21 June entered air defence identification zone in third largest sortie this year; Taiwan same day scrambled jets to warn off Chinese aircraft. U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft 24 June flew over Taiwan Strait. Earlier, China’s Eastern Theatre Command 1 June conducted “joint combat-readiness patrol” around Taiwan, following large-scale exercise around island one week prior. U.S. 9 June approved $120mn arms deal to Taiwan in fourth such sale under U.S. Biden administration; China same day strongly condemned deal as violation of past U.S.-China agreements. U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin 10-12 June affirmed Biden administration’s unchanged Taiwan policy at Shangri-La Dialogue international summit held in Singapore and accused China of growing coercion; Austin also committed to strengthening “guardrails against conflict” by maintaining communication with Beijing. During meeting with Austin on sidelines of summit, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Feng reportedly said China would not hesitate to commence war if Taiwan pursued independence; Wei also publicly warned Chinese military will fight at all costs against Taiwan’s pursuit of independence. Chinese foreign ministry 13 June said “China enjoys sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait” and “there is no such thing as ‘international waters’ in [UN Convention on the Law of the Sea]”; U.S. same day affirmed Taiwan Strait is “international waterway”, while Taiwan next day rebuffed Beijing’s statement as “false claim”. Leader of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party Eric Chu during visit to U.S. 6 June said that “1992 consensus” remains key to KMT engagement with Beijing, but both sides are free to interpret what “one China” means.

China continued incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone and conducted rare breach of unofficial median line, while U.S. President Biden vowed to intervene in event of attack. Chinese aircraft continued incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone through month, totalling 74 planes as of 19 May over 14 consecutive days; notably, 18 Chinese planes 6 May entered zone. Taiwanese defence authorities 5-8 May reported 31 aircraft sorties south east and south west of island, coinciding with Chinese Liaoning aircraft carrier group drill east of Taiwan, near Japan’s Okinawa islands. USS Port Royal 11 May transited Taiwan Strait in second such passage of U.S. vessel in two weeks. Taiwanese defence ministry same day reported rare crossing of Chinese attack helicopter over median line of strait. Taiwanese annual military exercises 17 May commenced simulating defence against possible Chinese invasion and incorporating lessons of Ukraine war. China continued to warn U.S. of rhetoric and actions supporting Taiwan. U.S. State Dept 5 May updated factsheet on its website without usual statement that U.S. “does not support Taiwan independence”; China urged U.S. to abide by “one-China principle”. Chinese Politburo official Yang Jiechi in 18 May phone call with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reiterated centrality of Taiwan issue in U.S.-China relations, warning recent U.S. actions have been “widely distant from its statements.” In notable statement during five-day trip to Asia, U.S. President Biden 23 May said U.S. was willing to intervene militarily to support Taiwan in event of attack; U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin same day confirmed “our One China policy has not changed” and that Biden’s statements reiterated “commitment…to help provide Taiwan the means to defend itself”. Chinese foreign ministry same day expressed “strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition” over statements. Chinese military 25 May announced second large-scale military exercise around island. Meanwhile, media reports 1 May indicated U.S. and U.K. officials had held talks on contingency planning over conflict in Taiwan for first time. Taiwanese FM Joseph Wu 13 May revealed increasing talks with NATO and potential for greater cooperation.

U.S. maintained strong diplomatic and military support for Taiwan, while China responded with fiery rhetoric and continued aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone. In third such package under Biden administration, U.S. State Department 6 April approved potential sale of military equipment, including Patriot Air Defence System, training and other services worth $95mn to support Taiwanese defence; China same day called arms sale violation of one-China principle. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi cancelled 9 April Taiwan visit after reportedly testing positive for COVID-19; China had 7 April pledged to “resolutely fight back” if Pelosi visited. Six U.S. legislators 14 April visited Taiwan. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan 15 April said U.S. would “take every step we possibly can to ensure that [China’s invasion of Taiwan] never happens”; Chinese foreign ministry same day said “China must and will be reunified”. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai 18 April met Taiwanese Minister John Deng to review bilateral trade progress; Taiwan next day said it seeks to join U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Chinese military 15 April conducted destroyer-bomber joint patrol around Taiwan; state media same day said exercise was both warning to Pelosi over any future visit and preparation “for potential, real actions that would resolve the Taiwan question once and for all”. Chinese aircraft continued incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone throughout month, totalling 68 planes as of 27 April. U.S. 7th Fleet Destroyer USS Sampson 26 April sailed through Taiwan Strait; in response, China said that it is one of U.S. “provocative acts that send wrong signals to “Taiwan independence” forces”. Taiwanese Coast Guard 8 April received fourth and fifth of 12 planned locally-made offshore patrol vessels. Taiwanese military 12 April released handbook on civil defence for first time, giving citizens survival guidance in war scenario.

Taiwan raised concern over Chinese threats in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while Beijing expanded its defence budget and continued military activity in region. War in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion drew attention to potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Chinese FM Wang Yi 7 March said Ukraine and Taiwan “are not comparable at all”, asserting Taiwan is not sovereign state. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen 12 March said war in Ukraine proved Taiwanese defence depends on “the unity of our people”, following 2 March extension of reservist training period. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 16 March argued U.S. unwillingness to commit troops to Ukraine is evidence Taiwan’s ruling party should not “rely on the United States to seek independence”. China 5 March announced planned defence budget increase of 7.1% to $230bn and same day reiterated commitment to “solving the Taiwan issue in the new era.” Chinese aircraft flew into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone throughout month, totalling 48 planes as of 27 March. Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong 18 March sailed through Taiwan Strait, tailed by USS Ralph Johnson. Taiwan remained point of contention between U.S. and China. Following 14 March meeting between U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Politburo official Yang Jiechi, Beijing said it was “gravely concerned about and firmly opposes” current U.S. approach to Taiwan. In call with U.S. President Biden, Chinese President Xi 18 March reiterated discontent over administration’s “mishandling of the Taiwan question”, noting some in U.S. are sending Taiwan “very dangerous” signals. Several U.S. former officials, including former Sec State Mike Pompeo, 1-2 March met President Tsai in Taiwan; Pompeo 4 March said U.S. should offer diplomatic recognition to Taiwan; China same day described proposal as “lunatic remarks”.

U.S. maintained posture of support for Taiwan, while China deployed dozens of aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence zone. U.S. 7 Feb authorised possible sale of military equipment and services worth $100mn to help Taiwan “sustain, maintain, and improve” its Patriot missile defence system; Chinese defence ministry 9 Feb said act “grossly interferes” with China’s internal affairs, called on U.S. to revoke sale. U.S. Biden administration 11 Feb unveiled its new Indo-Pacific Strategy, which pledges to deter military aggression in Taiwan Strait. Senior Chinese official Wang Yang in 5 Feb meeting with former leader of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party Hung Hsiu-chu said China was willing to hold dialogue on “democratic consultations” on basis of “one-China” principle; Taiwanese officials next day strongly rejected Chinese offer, calling it bid to “destroy” Taiwan. Meanwhile, Chinese aircraft flew into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone throughout month, totalling 39 aircraft as of 23 Feb. Defence ministry 15 Feb said China flew civilian aircraft into “defence reaction zone” of remote Taiwanese island Dongyin on 5 Feb, speculating China may have been testing military’s response. U.S. warship USS Ralph Johnson 26 Feb sailed through Taiwan Strait in “routine” transit that China same day denounced as “provocative”. Taiwan 15 Feb announced it would join U.S., UK and Australia in consultations on EU’s case against China at World Trade Organization, in which Beijing is accused of blocking trade with Lithuania. Somaliland’s FM 9 Feb visited Taiwan and met with President Tsai.

China conducted largest aerial incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone since Oct 2021, while Taipei adopted special military budget and continued to cultivate international ties. Chinese aircraft flew into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone throughout month, totalling 138 aircraft as of 30 Jan; 23 Jan marks largest incursion since Oct 2021 with defence ministry scrambling fighters to warn off 39 Chinese aircraft. U.S. navy destroyer 22 Jan transited Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s army 6 Jan conducted urban warfare exercise. Parliament 16 Jan passed over $8bn five-year special military budget to produce precision and long-range missiles and naval ships. In 1 Jan New Year’s speech, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said Taiwan would “neither bow to pressure nor act rashly when we have support” and that Beijing should “stop the spread of military adventurism within their ranks”. In rare face-to-face meeting with U.S. senior officials, Taiwan’s VP Lai Ching-te during 26-29 Jan trip to Honduras spoke with U.S. VP Kamala Harris at Honduran president’s inauguration, and met virtually with U.S. congressional representatives. In 28 Jan interview, Chinese Ambassador to U.S. Qin Gang said if Taiwan continued “down the road of independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States … in a military conflict”. Former Deputy Director of China’s Taiwan Affairs office Sun Yafu said 8 Jan Beijing would put forward “new policy decisions and arrangements” on Taiwan at 20th Party Congress due to take place in late 2022. Despite tensions last year, trade data 7 Jan revealed China-Taiwan trade grew in 2021, reaching new high of $188.9bn. EU 27 Jan launched case at World Trade Organization against China for blocking trade with Lithuania after Vilnius opened Taiwan representative office using “Taiwanese” in its name rather than usual “Taipei.” Taiwan 11 Jan pledged $1bn credit fund for projects in Lithuania including semiconductor industry. Slovenian PM Janez Jansa 17 Jan said Slovenia and Taiwan were discussing exchanging representatives; Taiwan next day confirmed talks, while Chinese foreign ministry 19 Jan expressed shock, calling Jansa’s remarks “dangerous”.