Cross-strait tensions remained high amid persistent Chinese and U.S. military activity in region. U.S. President Biden 10 Feb raised concerns over Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan in first phone conversation with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping; Taiwanese govt 11 Feb thanked Biden for comments. Taiwanese de facto Ambassador to U.S. Hsiao Bi-khim 10 Feb met with acting U.S. Assistant Sec State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Sung Kim in Washington D.C., in first publicly acknowledged formal meeting under new U.S. administration. Taiwanese Presidential Office 19 Feb announced reshuffle of top officials in charge of defence, national security and China policies. Meanwhile, Taiwanese defence ministry claimed series of Chinese military aircraft entered Air Defence Identification Zones (ADIZ) throughout month, including: one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft 1 Feb; one Y-8 electronic intelligence aircraft and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 4 Feb; two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircrafts 7 and 18 Feb; one Shaanxi Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 6, 18, 22 and 23 Feb; two J-16 fighter jets 8 Feb; one Y-8 ASW anti-submarine aircraft and one Y-8 RECCE aircraft 13 Feb; one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft 16 Feb; four J-16 strike fighters, four JH-7 fighter-bombers and one Y-9 EW electronic warfare aircraft 19 Feb; and two Chengdu J-10 fighter jets, two Shenyang J-16 fighter jets, four Xi'an JH-7 fighter-bombers, two Xian H-6K bombers, and one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft 20 Feb. In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, broadcast radio warnings and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. U.S. continued military activity in region: four U.S. military aircraft 1 Feb flew through ADIZ; U.S. Navy 4 Feb sent guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain through Taiwan Strait, prompting China’s military 5 Feb to accuse U.S. of deliberately “creating tensions”. President Tsai Ing-wen 9 Feb confirmed in Lunar New Year message that U.S. military support remains firm.

Cross-strait tensions continued to run high amid U.S. lifting of four-decade-old restrictions on interactions with Taiwanese officials and ongoing Chinese military activity. Outgoing U.S. Sec of State Mike Pompeo 9 Jan announced lifting of “self-imposed restrictions” on interactions with Taiwanese officials which had been in place since 1979; China 11 Jan strongly condemned move. Taiwanese presidential office 14 Jan said President Tsai Ing-wen and outgoing U.S. Ambassador to UN Craft had discussed deepening Taiwan-U.S. ties; in response, Chinese MFA 18 Jan announced sanctions on U.S. officials who have engaged in “nasty behaviour on the Taiwan issue”. Taiwan’s de facto ambassador in Washington D.C. 20 Jan attended U.S. President Biden’s inauguration ceremony with official invitation for first time since 1979. China’s Ministry of Defence 28 Jan warned “Taiwan independence” means war; U.S. same day reaffirmed “obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act”. Earlier in month, U.S. Assistant Sec of State for Political-Military Affairs Clarke Cooper 7 Jan held political and military dialogue with Taiwan. Meanwhile, Taiwanese defence ministry claimed series of Chinese military aircraft entered Air Defence Identification Zones (ADIZ) throughout month, including: one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft, one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft, one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft and one Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft 4 and 18 Jan; one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft 7 Jan; one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft and one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 12 Jan; one Y-8 tactical reconnaissance aircraft 20 Jan; eight Chinese bomber planes and four fighter jets 23 Jan; two Chinese Chengdu J-10 fighter jets 28 Jan; and seven military aircraft 31 Jan. In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, broadcast radio warnings and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. Tsai 1 Jan said Taiwan’s govt is ready to have “meaningful” dialogue with Beijing; China’s Taiwan Affairs Office same day rebuffed offer. Taiwanese military forces 19 Jan staged drill using tanks, mortars and small arms aimed at repelling attack from China. U.S. continued military activity in region; U.S. Navy surveillance drone 13 Jan flew within Taiwan’s ADIZ.

Cross-strait tensions remained high amid intense Chinese and U.S. military activity. Taiwanese defence ministry claimed series of Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during month, including: one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft and one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 9 and 21 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft 1, 2, 6, 7, 26 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, one Y-8 tactical reconnaissance aircraft and one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 4 Dec; one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 10 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 15 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, one Y-8 electronic intelligence aircraft, one Y-9 electronic aircraft, and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 16 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and one Y-8 electronic aircraft 20, 22, 24 Dec. In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, broadcast radio warnings and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. Meanwhile, U.S. continued military activity in region and support for Taiwan. U.S. govt 7 Dec notified Congress of new $280mn arms sale package to Taiwan. Aircraft spotters 14 Dec detected U.S. Navy surveillance drone flying within ADIZ. Chinese military 19 Dec said it had “tailed and monitored” guided missile destroyer USS Mustin as it passed through Taiwan Strait, denouncing such missions as “flirtatious glances to Taiwan independence forces”; U.S. Navy said warship had conducted “routine Taiwan Strait transit [...] in accordance with international law”. Two U.S. Navy destroyers, USS John S. McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur, 31 Dec conducted a rare “double transit” of Taiwan Strait. China 20 Dec sailed Shandong aircraft carrier through Taiwan Strait; Chinese navy 21 Dec said that Shandong was on its way to conduct drills in South China Sea; Taiwanese defence ministry same day said it had deployed six ships and eight types of aircraft to monitor situation. Japanese State Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama 25 Dec called on U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to “be strong” in supporting Taiwan, referring to country’s safety as “red line.”

Cross-strait tensions remained high amid intense Chinese and U.S. military activity and Washington’s diplomatic and military support for Taipei. Taiwanese defence ministry claimed series of Chinese military aircrafts entered Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during month, including: one Y-8 reconnaissance plane 1 Nov; two Y-8 anti-submarine aircrafts, two SU-30s, two J-10s and two J-16s 2 Nov; one Y-8 anti-submarine plane 4, 10, 12, 22 and 23 Nov; one Y-8 plane and one Y-8 anti-submarine plane 11, 16, 17 and 24 Nov. In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, broadcast radio warnings and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. Meanwhile, U.S. continued military activity in region as well as support for Taiwan. U.S. State Department 3 Nov cleared potential sale of four aerial drones to Taiwan; Chinese foreign ministry 4 Nov said U.S. had sent wrong and grave signals with deal. Taiwanese Naval Command 9 Nov confirmed that contingent of U.S. Marines arrived to train troops for four weeks at Tsoying Naval Base; Chinese state media 11 Nov said U.S. training would not affect cross-strait military balance. Plane tracker Aircraft Spots 17 Nov claimed two U.S. Air Force B1-B bombers entered China’s ADIZ; Beijing-based Probing Initiative 22 Nov reported five U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and two aerial tankers flew south of Taiwan’s ADIZ; U.S. Air Force 24 Nov flew two supersonic heavy bombers into East China Sea. U.S. Rear Admiral Michael Studeman 22 Nov made unannounced visit to Taiwan. U.S. also increased diplomatic support for Taiwan: Washington 6 Nov urged World Health Organization (WHO) to invite Taiwan to major meeting focused on COVID-19; WHO member countries 9 Nov rejected request. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 12 Nov said “Taiwan has not been a part of China”; Beijing next day said that U.S. interference “will be met with a resolute counterattack by China”. Beijing 11 Nov urged U.S. to “stop any kind of official exchanges or contacts with Taiwan” ahead of Taiwan-U.S. economic talks held virtually and in-person in Washington 20 Nov; talks concluded with deal to establish “institutionalised dialogue mechanism”.

Cross-strait tensions remained high amid intense Chinese military activity and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Taiwanese govt claimed series of Chinese military jets entered Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone during month, including: Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft on 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15-17, 21, 25 and 31  Oct; one KJ-500 surveillance aircraft 7 Oct; two planes including one Y-9 transport aircraft 9 Oct; three jets including KJ-500 jet 20 Oct; two jets including a Y-8 plane 26 Oct; one electronic warfare plane 27 and 29 Oct; two planes 28 Oct; and three planes including electronic signals intelligence plane 30 Oct. In response, Taipei scrambled jets and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. Canadian warship 3 Oct and U.S. warship 14 Oct sailed through Taiwan Strait; following latter, Chinese military warned Washington to stop “words and deeds that provoke trouble”. U.S. military transport plane 8 Oct flew route along “median line” in Strait. Meanwhile, U.S. state dept 21 Oct approved sale of three weapons systems, including missiles and artillery, to Taiwan; next day, Taipei welcomed package, thanking U.S. for helping “strengthen its self-defense capabilities”; Beijing 26 Oct announced it would sanction U.S. arms companies involved in deal, including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon for move, which “China firmly opposes and strongly condemns”. Taipei denied reports on Chinese state television 12 and 13 Oct that allegedly showed confessions of two Taiwanese spies that Chinese authorities had supposedly arrested as part of a large anti-espionage operation “Thunder 2020”. U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien 16 Oct said Taiwan should “fortify itself” against potential invasion or Chinese-led economic measures such as embargo. In Taipei, parliament 6 Oct unanimously passed opposition Kuomintang party-proposed resolutions calling for further U.S. military aid and resumption of U.S.-Taiwan diplomatic ties. Taiwanese President Tsai 10 Oct in annual National Day address said maintaining “stability in cross-strait relations is in the best interest of both sides”.

Cross-strait tensions spiked amid heightened Chinese military activity and senior U.S. official’s visit to Taiwan. Following Aug visit of U.S. health chief Alex Azar, U.S. State Under Secretary Keith Krach 17-19 Sept visited Taiwan for memorial service in highest level visit by U.S. cabinet official since 1979; Chinese MFA 17 Sept said trip “severely violates the one-China principle” and urged Washington to “immediately stop official exchange with Taiwan”. Beijing conducted live-fire exercises during visit, with Chinese state-run Global Times newspaper quoting experts who suggested drills are “rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover”; 18 Chinese jets, including H-6 bombers and J-16 fighters, conducted military drills in Taiwan Strait 18 Sept, with 19 jets, including a Y-8 anti-submarine plane, holding exercises next day; in response, Taipei scrambled jets and tracked jets with air defence system both days. President Tsai 20 Sept denounced drills, saying they demonstrated to regional countries “threat posed by China”. Prior to visit, Taiwanese military 4 Sept denied claims on social media that its forces had shot down Chinese jet, which crossed median line in Taiwan Strait – referring to de facto sea demarcation that both sides have generally observed for decades. Chinese jets 9-10 Sept entered Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone, while two Y-8’s entered zone 16 Sept. Beijing 14-20 Sept held navy exercises in Yellow Sea, while Taiwan 14-18 Sept conducted computer-aided “war games” as part of annual military drills. Taiwanese FM Wu 17 Sept called for international support to deter “China’s expansionist motivation” during interview. Tensions rose further when Chinese MFA 21 Sept announced that “there is no so-called center line in the Taiwan Strait”, referring to median line. Main Taiwan opposition Kuomintang party 14 Sept announced it would not send official delegation to annual cross-Strait forum following Chinese state media China Central Television 10 Sept headline that claimed party was coming to “plead for peace” amid Taiwan-China tensions. Reuters 16 Sept reported Washington plans to sell up to seven major weapons systems such as mines, cruise missiles and drones to Taipei.

Cross-strait tensions continued between Taiwan and China amid visit to Taiwan by highest U.S. official in four decades. U.S. health chief Alex Azar met with President Tsai during 9-12 Aug visit to Taipei, in most senior visit by American official since break of Washington-Taipei ties in 1979; Azar lent support to Taiwan’s participation in global health forums like the World Health Organization and oversaw signing of first bilateral memorandum of understanding on health cooperation including vaccine development and infectious disease control; in lead up to visit, Chinese foreign ministry 7 Aug urged U.S. to “stop official ties with Taiwan” and said Beijing “will take firm countermeasures”. U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo 10 Aug criticised China’s objections to Azar’s visit as sign of “weakness.” During visit, Chinese J-10 and J-11 fighter jets 10 Aug crossed median line in Taiwan Strait, with Taipei scrambling planes in response, while Chinese military 13 Aug reported it had carried out further drills during Azar’s visit, both in Taiwan Strait and to the north and south of Taiwan. Taiwanese defence ministry 10 Aug said it had tracked Chinese planes with radars from surface-to-air missiles for first time. U.S. destroyers 18 and 30 Aug transited Taiwan Strait. Taipei 13 Aug proposed 10% increase to defence spending to $15.4bn in 2021 and next day reportedly finalised purchase from U.S. of 66 F-16 fighter jets. Taiwanese govt 19 Aug said hackers linked to Beijing attacked at least ten govt agencies since 2018 in attempt to steal data.

Cross-strait tensions persisted amid Taiwan’s annual military exercises, while Taipei announced diplomatic ties with Somaliland. Taiwan 13-17 July held annual live fire war games simulating defence against invasion of island involving all branches of armed forces, including navy 15 July firing first live torpedo since 2007; two Chinese reconnaissance vessels same day sailed near eastern coast of Taiwan. Earlier, Chinese military aircraft 4 July entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, which prompted Taiwanese fighter jets to scramble in response. U.S. State Department 9 July approved sale of upgrades to PAC-3 air defence missiles system to Taiwan; in response, China 14 July announced it will impose sanctions on U.S. arms company Lockheed Martin, which produces the weapons system. U.S. Congress member 29 July introduced bill to authorise U.S. to use military force if China attacks Taiwan. Taiwanese govt 1 July announced establishment of diplomatic ties with and representative offices in Somaliland, a self-declared independent region of Somalia, following Feb 2020 meeting in Taipei between two entities; Chinese foreign ministry 6 July said Beijing “firmly opposes the establishment or any form of official exchange between” Taiwan and Somaliland. FM 22 July said China is sending military planes close to Taiwan with increasing frequency, accusing Beijing of “unceasingly preparing to use force to resolve the Taiwan problem”.

Tensions increased between Taipei and Beijing amid increased Chinese incursions into Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) and continued U.S. military presence. Amid heightened tensions following top Chinese general’s 29 May threat to use “all necessary measures” to prevent Taiwanese independence, Chinese military activity spiked mid-month; Taiwanese army reported eight incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwanese ADIZ 9-22 June, including: several Su-30 fighter jets 9 June, a Y-8 surveillance aircraft shortly after Taiwan carried out missile tests off eastern coast 12 June, intrusions by J-10 fighter 19 June and several jets including H-6 bomber 22 June. U.S. Navy destroyer 4 June sailed through Taiwan Strait; Taiwanese Defence Ministry 9 June said U.S. navy transport plane that day entered Taiwanese air space with permission; in response, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 11 June said flight was “illegal act and a seriously provocative incident”; U.S. military jets, including P-8A maritime patrol aircraft and reconnaissance planes, flew daily over waters near Taiwan 21-30 June. Committee established by Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang party to examine party’s cross-strait policy 19 June recommended that “1992 Consensus” – tacit agreement between China and then ruling-Kuomintang on principles of cross-strait relations – be used as “historical description” of cross-strait interactions; China’s Taiwan Affairs Office same day urged adherence to “1992 consensus”. Amid concerns over controversial new Chinese national security legislation for Hong Kong, Taiwan govt 18 June announced that it will open office in July in Taipei to offer humanitarian assistance to Hong Kong citizens, including those seeking asylum. Taiwanese coast guard 3 June reportedly intercepted flotilla of illegal Chinese sand dredgers in Taiwan strait.

As President Tsai started her second term, China-Taiwan tensions remained high, especially regarding Taiwan’s lack of membership with World Health Organization (WHO) amid COVID-19 concerns. Following Jan re-election, President Tsai 20 May attended inauguration in capital Taipei, where she called on China and Taiwan to “find a way to coexist,” saying she opposed Beijing’s “use of ‘one country, two systems’ to downgrade Taiwan and undermine the cross-strait status quo”; in response, China same day said “reunification” is “historical inevitability”, also expressed “strong indignation” that U.S. Sec State Pompeo sent message of congratulations to be read at inauguration. Chairman of main opposition Kuomintang party – currently shaping its cross-strait policy through reform committee established mid-March – 15 May called on China to stop threatening military force and said there was no appetite for “one country, two systems” in Taiwan. Taiwan govt 28 May criticised controversial new Chinese national security legislation for Hong Kong after Chinese parliament approved decision to move forward with drafting legislation. Amid COVID-19 pandemic, tensions continued over Beijing’s apparent blocking of Taipei from accessing information from WHO as it is not a member; Taiwan govt 19 May said it was “disappointed and angry” WHO did not invite it to join its annual assembly as an observer, and share its “experiences” regarding coronavirus response. In continued military drills, U.S. destroyer 13 May sailed through Taiwan Strait. China 15 May urged France to revoke plan to sell arms to Taiwan as part of upgrade to French warship fleet Taiwan bought 30 years ago; Taipei 28 May announced plans to purchase coastal defence missile system from U.S..