As President Tsai started her second term, China-Taiwan tensions remained high, especially regarding Taiwan’s lack of membership with World Health Organization (WHO) amid COVID-19 concerns. Following Jan re-election, President Tsai 20 May attended inauguration in capital Taipei, where she called on China and Taiwan to “find a way to coexist,” saying she opposed Beijing’s “use of ‘one country, two systems’ to downgrade Taiwan and undermine the cross-strait status quo”; in response, China same day said “reunification” is “historical inevitability”, also expressed “strong indignation” that U.S. Sec State Pompeo sent message of congratulations to be read at inauguration. Chairman of main opposition Kuomintang party – currently shaping its cross-strait policy through reform committee established mid-March – 15 May called on China to stop threatening military force and said there was no appetite for “one country, two systems” in Taiwan. Taiwan govt 28 May criticised controversial new Chinese national security legislation for Hong Kong after Chinese parliament approved decision to move forward with drafting legislation. Amid COVID-19 pandemic, tensions continued over Beijing’s apparent blocking of Taipei from accessing information from WHO as it is not a member; Taiwan govt 19 May said it was “disappointed and angry” WHO did not invite it to join its annual assembly as an observer, and share its “experiences” regarding coronavirus response. In continued military drills, U.S. destroyer 13 May sailed through Taiwan Strait. China 15 May urged France to revoke plan to sell arms to Taiwan as part of upgrade to French warship fleet Taiwan bought 30 years ago; Taipei 28 May announced plans to purchase coastal defence missile system from U.S..

Tensions remained high amid series of tit-for-tat Chinese-American military manoeuvres close to Taiwan, and govt’s relations remained strained with World Health Organization (WHO) and lack of membership in face of COVID-19 concerns. Chinese aircrafts – J-11 fighters, H-6 bomber, and KJ-500 surveillance aircraft – 10 April conducted drills near south of Taiwan and flew through Bashi Channel, body of water separating Taiwan from Philippines; later that day U.S. reconnaissance aircraft flew over area, while U.S. warship sailed through Taiwan Strait. U.S. reconnaissance aircraft 11-12 April flew over waters south of Taiwan. Defence Ministry reported Chinese naval flotilla including Liaoning aircraft carrier 12 April passed eastern and southern coasts of Taiwan to carry out drills, having passed through Miyako Strait in East China Sea previous day (see China/Japan); Taiwanese navy scrambled ships to monitor situation. Amid continued tensions over Beijing’s apparent blocking of Taipei from accessing information from WHO as it is not a member, organisation’s chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, a former Ethiopian health and Foreign Minister, 8 April said he had received personal abuse and death threats that originated from Taiwan, alleging foreign ministry “didn’t disassociate themselves [from the abuse]”; foreign ministry next day released statement expressing “profound regret and strong protest regarding the false accusations”.

Tensions with China continued over military exercises and disruption to govt’s COVID-19 response. Defence Ministry reported 16 March that Chinese jets including J-11 fighters and KJ-500 airborne flew into waters off coast of south west Taiwan in night time exercises, coming close to Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, with govt scrambling fighters in response. Following FM Joseph Wu 29 Feb accusing China of waging cyber “war” by using fake news in attempt to disrupt Taiwan’s response to COVID-19 spread, govt continued to protest Beijing’s apparent blocking of Taipei from accessing information from World Health Organization; U.S.-based chairman of American Institute in Taiwan 5 March told President Tsai Ing-wen U.S. would “redouble” efforts to “expand Taiwan’s participation on the global stage”. U.S. House of Representatives 4 March unanimously passed the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act (TAIPEI Act), aimed at discouraging Taipei’s diplomatic allies from cutting ties with island in favour of relations with Beijing; U.S. Senate 11 March passed bill, and President Trump 26 March signed act into law.

Tensions with China continued over military exercises and high-level meetings between U.S. and Taiwanese officials. In what China’s People’s Liberation Army described as military drills aimed at improving combat capabilities, Chinese military jets including J-11 fighters and H-6 bombers 9-10 Feb flew through Bashi Channel, body of water separating Taiwan from Philippines, prompting Taiwanese air force to scramble jets in response and request foreign jets to leave; Beijing 9 Feb claimed it was “safeguarding national sovereignty”; U.S. State Department 12 Feb said “completely inappropriate of China to take such an aggressive act”. Same day, three U.S. military aircrafts – two B-52 bombers and one MC-130 special mission aircraft – conducted drills in Taiwan Strait; U.S. warship also sailed through Strait 15 Feb. Ministry of National Defence 28 Feb reported that Chinese H-6 bombers same day flew over the sea in Southwest Taiwan and over Bashi Channel, said public should not worry about latest move as military relied on advanced joint surveillance system to monitor situation. Following reports that VP-elect William Lai met with U.S. National Security Council officials in Washington 3 Feb, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson 6 Feb said China “firmly opposes official exchange” between U.S. and Taiwan, urging U.S. to “stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces to avoid causing serious harm to China-US relations”; Taiwan’s foreign ministry said visit was “private trip”. Parliamentary speaker Yu Shyi-kun 13 Feb called on U.S. to recognise Taiwan and establish formal diplomatic ties during meeting with Brent Christensen, Director of American Institute in Taiwan, at Legislative Yuan in capital Taipei.

President Tsai won re-election in 11 Jan presidential elections, winning 57.1% of vote (highest vote share ever won by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate) ahead of Han Kuo-yu of Kuomintang party who won 38.6%; in legislative elections held concurrently, DPP retained majority but lost seven seats, taking 61 of 113 total, with Kuomintang winning 38 seats; turnout 74.9%. Tsai 14 Jan said China needed to “face reality” and show Taiwan “respect”. Chinese State Councillor Wang 13 Jan stated “consensus won’t alter because of a local election”; in response, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council claimed Wang “must face up to reality and stop believing his own lies”. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 11 Jan congratulated Tsai on win and praised her for seeking stability with China “in face of unrelenting pressure”. In lead up to vote, FM Joseph Wu 9 Jan warned Beijing not to retaliate if it did not like result and said China should not “read too much into” elections. U.S. warship 16 Jan sailed through Taiwan Strait; Chinese Foreign Ministry 17 Jan warned U.S. to approach Taiwan issue “cautiously and properly” to avoid “damaging China-U.S. relations and peace and stability”. Chinese military jets, including Xian H-6 bombers and a KJ-500 surveillance aircraft, flew through Bashi Channel, body of water separating Taiwan from Philippines, in military exercises 23 Jan, according to Taiwan’s Defence Ministry who monitored drills.

Ahead of 11 Jan presidential and legislative election, Taiwanese govt 4 Dec proposed anti-infiltration bill aimed at holding back Chinese influence in Taiwanese business community: prevents anyone from donating to a political party, influencing elections, and other ways that could influence politics. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that Taiwanese people bill “has already caused alarm and panic that everyone is treated as an enemy”. Chinese govt 21 Dec revised law to simplify investment procedures for Taiwan companies in effort to entice support for China friendly policies in upcoming election; Taiwanese parliament 24 Dec passed anti-infiltration law to combat Chinese funding activities in national politics. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen 18 Dec stated in pre-election policy address that Taiwan “must be aware that China is infiltrating and dividing Taiwan’s society in an all-round way”. Taiwanese Defence Ministry 2 Dec announced Taiwan plans to invite U.S. military experts to island to “help consolidate and deepen the security partnership” between U.S. and Taiwan and “ensure peace and stability in the region”. Taiwan’s Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation and U.S.’s Lockheed Martin 17 Dec signed agreement to build F-16 fighter jet maintenance centre in Taiwan. Chinese aircraft carrier 26 Dec sailed north of Taiwan Strait; in reaction to Chinese navy patrol, senior Taiwanese official stated that “by flexing military muscles, China is trying to intimidate non-aligned voters”.

Rhetoric between Taipei and Beijing grew more tense ahead of Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections set for 11 Jan 2020, with President Tsai accusing China of interfering with elections. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 4 Nov revealed measures to further open China’s markets and economic projects to Taiwanese firms, prompting Taipei to accuse China of agenda “promoting reunification, enticing Taiwan, and trying to split apart Taiwan internally” to influence elections. Chinese Communist Party early month issued communiqué pledging to “fully respect” Taiwanese way of life after it has been “peacefully reunified”. Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Minister 6 Nov warned that China could resort to military conflict with Taiwan to divert domestic attention from economic slowdown; Beijing called Wu’s comments “nonsense” and “rubbish”. China sailed its first domestically-built aircraft carrier through Taiwan Strait to South China Sea 17 Nov; Taipei accused it of intimidation. China 21 Nov warned independence is “dead end” that will bring “profound disaster to Taiwan”, after President Tsai’s running mate called himself “realistic worker for Taiwan independence”. Australian media 23 Nov reported Chinese asylum seeker in Australia had confessed to authorities to being Chinese spy and provided details inter alia of Beijing-led campaign to interfere in Taiwan’s election; Taipei said it was investigating claims, which Beijing denied. Foreign minister of Tuvalu in South Pacific 21 Nov said country had rejected Chinese offers to help build artificial islands, which it interpreted as effort to undermine Taiwan’s influence; told Reuters diplomatic ties with Taiwan are “strongest they’ve ever been”, and country is working with other Taiwanese allies in South Pacific to counter Chinese influence. U.S. 13 Nov guided-missile cruiser sailed through Taiwan Strait, in what U.S. described as routine operation to demonstrate its “commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

During 10 Oct speech marking National Day, President Tsai denounced “one country, two systems” formula proposed by Beijing for reunification, saying it has put Hong Kong on “brink of disorder” and represents threat to Taiwan. Foreign minister earlier described China as practicing “authoritarian expansionism” in the Pacific, citing planned Chinese military presence in two Pacific countries (Kiribati and Solomon Islands) that switched diplomatic allegiance to Beijing in Sept. Speaking at Xiangshan security forum in Beijing 21 Oct, Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe stated that reunification with Taiwan is China’s “greatest national interest”.

Tensions with Beijing continued as two more countries cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and Taipei accused Beijing of interference ahead of presidential elections in Jan 2020. Solomon Islands 16 Sept became latest country to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan, joined by Kiribati 20 Sept, leaving Taiwan with just fourteen countries that recognise its independence, plus the Vatican. President Tsai 20 Sept condemned China for its efforts to “suppress and coerce Taiwan” ahead of its elections. China 11 Sept confirmed Taiwanese national who went missing in Aug was arrested for “endangering national security”, prompting Taiwanese govt to warn citizens against visiting Hong Kong and China. Canadian warship sailed through Taiwan Strait 10 Sept, Chinese foreign ministry next day questioned Canada’s “intentions”.

Tensions between Taiwan and China continued as U.S. pushed through arms deal with Taiwan, and President Tsai raised concerns of Chinese activities. U.S. administration 21 Aug formally notified U.S. Congress it was moving ahead with $8bn sale of 66 F-16 fighter aircraft to Taiwan. In response, Chinese foreign ministry same day threatened imposing sanctions on U.S. companies involved in deal, claiming they “constitute severe interference” and “undermine China’s sovereignty and security interests”. Tsai 10 Aug warned of “Chinese infiltration in Taiwan” including fake news, after a Reuters report claimed Chinese authorities paid Taiwanese media groups for positive coverage. Tsai’s cabinet 15 Aug proposed to parliament over 8% increase in annual military spending, largest yearly increase since 2008. U.S. navy 23 Aug sailed amphibious ship through Taiwan Strait in fourth freedom of navigation operation in 2019. Chinese authorities 27-29 Aug prohibited ships from entering water near Taiwan off coast of China’s Zhejiang Province for 48 hours to hold military exercises; Taiwan defence ministry confirmed U.S. military plane 29 Aug flew over “median line” of strait.