CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Taipei continued efforts to shore up diplomatic recognition with support from U.S.. Four U.S. senators 3 Sept introduced draft “Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act” that would authorise State Department to downgrade relations with govts that take adverse action against Taiwan. Signalling displeasure with countries that recently severed ties with Taipei, U.S. 7 Sept said it had recalled its ambassadors to Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Panama. Four of seventeen remaining countries recognising Taiwan — Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and eSwatini (formerly Swaziland) — reiterated their support. Following Vatican-China agreement on bishops, Taiwan 27 Sept said diplomatic relations with Vatican are stable. U.S. 24 Sept approved sale of spare parts for F-16 fighter planes and other military aircraft to Taiwan. European Parliament report 29 Aug called for EU and its member states to urge China “to refrain from further military provocation towards Taiwan and endangering peace and stability”. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 16 Sept accused island’s intelligence agencies of conducting espionage and infiltration activities on mainland, called on Taipei to immediately stop “to prevent further damage to the increasingly complicated cross-Straits relations”; Taipei dismissed reports.
Taiwan lost another diplomatic ally as El Salvador 20 Aug announced it was shifting its diplomatic relationship from Taiwan to China, fifth country to change alignment since Democratic People’s Party took power in Taiwan in 2016; brings number of countries that formally recognise Taiwan as Republic of China down to seventeen. U.S. and Taiwan criticised move; President Tsai said China’s behaviour “increasingly out of control”. Tsai made transit stops in U.S. 13-14 and 19 Aug during official visit to diplomatic supporters Belize and Paraguay; high profile trip part of apparent effort to push back at Beijing’s pressure, included public speeches and meetings with members of U.S. Congress; China lodged formal protests against both transit stops. Associated Press 18 Aug reported Taiwan has stepped up development and production of missiles and anti-missile systems. China’s State Council 18 Aug approved measures making it easier for citizens of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau to apply for residency permits and remain on mainland, latest measure intended to encourage ties.
Two U.S. warships sailed through Taiwan Strait 7 July; China next day accused U.S. of playing the “Taiwan card” to harm Chinese national interest; U.S. Navy said warships’ route “perfectly permissible”. Chinese navy 18-23 July conducted live-fire drill in East China Sea; China’s Global Times reported operation was over area “roughly the size of Taiwan” and designed to simulate real combat against Taiwan and show preparedness for conflict. Taiwan foreign ministry 26 July denounced Beijing’s efforts to stop private companies referring to Taiwan as separate country as “attempts to destroy Taiwan’s sovereignty”. Beijing 31 July said it had called on U.S. not to allow President Tsai to transit through U.S. en route to Latin America in Aug. Taiwan 17 July brought into service a second squadron of U.S.-supplied Apache AH-64E attack helicopters. Chinese President Xi 13 July met Lien Chan, former chair of Kuomintang party, in Beijing and urged more work on peaceful development of relations across Taiwan Strait and efforts toward peaceful reunification.
U.S. 12 June unveiled its recently completed American Institute in Taiwan main office in Taipei with low-key ceremony that indicated support for self-governing island while avoiding greater frictions with China; U.S. 27 June confirmed new representative to Taiwan. Speaking to AFP news agency 25 June, Taiwan’s President Tsai said international community should “constrain” China to protect democracy, prompting angry response from Beijing. Taiwan held large-scale annual military drills early June, while Chinese warships held daily combat drills starting 17 June in waters near Taiwan.
Taiwan lost two more diplomatic allies, bringing down number of countries with formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan to eighteen. Dominican Republic (DR) 1 May formally established diplomatic relations with China; Taiwan expressed anger and announced “termination of relations” with DR, said China had offered $3.1bn investment and loan package as incentive to DR; China denied. Burkina Faso 24 May also announced it was ending official relations with Taiwan, and formally established diplomatic relations with China two days after. Responding at 24 May press conference, President Tsai said: “The series of outrageous manoeuvres from China intended to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty has crossed a bottom line for Taiwanese society”. Taiwan late month hosted President Moïse of Haiti, with which Taiwan still has diplomatic relations, and pledged $150mn in aid to develop Haiti’s infrastructure. China conducted series of military exercises aimed to deter Taiwan independence: 11 May conducted encirclement drills with H-6K strategic bombers and new Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets across Bashi Channel between Taiwan and northern islands of Philippines; Taiwan said it deployed F-16s to monitor manoeuvres. More Chinese bombers, J-11 fighters and KJ-200 early-warning aircraft flew over Miyako Strait separating Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands and conducted exercises in western Pacific in the same drills 11 May.
China 18 April held first ever live-fire exercises in Taiwan Strait, saying they were intended as warning against Taiwanese who advocate independence. Xinhua news agency reported that nuclear-capable H-6K long-range bombers, Su-30 and J-11 fighters, armed helicopters and reconnaissance aircraft took part in two days of drills. Taiwanese govt dismissed move as “cheap verbal intimidation and sabre-rattling”. Chinese President Xi spoke for first time with Taiwanese delegation at Boao Forum for Asia on Hainan island 10 April; met with former Taiwanese Vice President Vincent Siew of Kuomintang party, called on Taiwan to cease calls for independence and reunify with mainland. U.S. and Taiwanese defence contractors due to meet in Taiwan in May to discuss military sales.
U.S. President Trump 16 March signed Taiwan Travel Act on 16 March, formally encouraging all levels of officials of both govts to visit each other; only second piece of U.S. legislation passed on Taiwan since they severed formal diplomatic relations in 1972, increasing tensions with Beijing. China expressed strong dissatisfaction, said law violates “One-China” policy and sends “seriously wrong signal”. China’s President Xi struck assertive tone on Taiwan in address to National Peoples’ Congress 20 March, warning that any efforts to divide China would be doomed and separatism would meet the “punishment of history”; speech seen as warning to U.S. and to Taiwan’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party; and as Xi’s most public expression yet of long-held ambition to reunite Taiwan and mainland. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 28 Feb unveiled slate of 31 measures designed to deepen economic and social integration with Taiwan; Taiwan’s Premier William Lai 6 March said measures were intended to cause brain drain and increase dependence. Two former presidents of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, 28 Feb backed campaign for island to hold referendum on independence in 2019.
Chinese airlines 30 Jan cancelled 176 flights to Taiwan, which had been scheduled to meet Chinese New Year holiday demand, after Taiwanese authorities refused to approve them. Taipei 23 Feb appointed pro-independence politician Chen Ming-tong as China affairs minister to start “new phase” in relations with Beijing.
Head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Zhang Zhijun published article 31 Dec saying cross-strait relations will be “more complicated and grave” in 2018 and reiterated China will never tolerate independence activities or separatism movements. China’s Civil Aviation Administration 4 Jan said it will open four new commercial traffic routes to ease congestion over Taiwan Strait; Taipei complained it was not consulted and described move as threat to regional security. U.S. House of Representatives 9 Jan passed Taiwan Travel Act which, if approved by Senate and president, would encourage bilateral official visits. Taiwan 16 Jan said China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier had entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone.
Senior Chinese diplomat 8 Dec said China would activate Anti-Secession Law the instant any U.S. warship visits Taiwan; law allows China to use force to prevent Taiwan from seceding. Taiwan next day accused Chinese officials of repeatedly threatening island. President Tsai 28 Dec said Chinese military activity in East Asia is causing regional instability.
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