CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
24 Indian Kashmiris became first in 60 years to cross to Pakistani side but growing dissatisfaction more not allowed after 8 October earthquake. Pakistani PM Shaukat Aziz and Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh discussed normalisation process in side meeting at SAARC summit. All 5 promised crossing-points officially opened. 3 profile Srinagar attacks killed 14, 16-23 November.
Region devastated by 8 October earthquake; over 55,000 killed (36,000 in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir) and 3 million homeless. India and Pakistan agreed to open Line of Control dividing Kashmir from 7 November to allow relief supplies and survivors to cross. Truce called by main Muslim rebel alliance in India-controlled Kashmir, United Jihad Council, but sporadic violence continued. Junior Education Minister of India-controlled Kashmir and 2 bodyguards killed 18 October in Srinagar by Islamic Front militants. Indian and Pakistani FMs signed security cooperation agreement 3 October in Islamabad: includes ballistic missile test notification pledge and hotline between maritime security forces. Agreement also reached to resolve dispute over frontier Siachen glacier in Kashmir within 3 months.
Talks between Indian PM Singh and Pakistani President Musharraf on sidelines of UN General Assembly reaffirmed commitment to “peaceful settlement of all issues” but failed to advance stalled negotiations. Singh held talks with moderate faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference separatist alliance 5 September; vowed to reduce Indian troops if violence and infiltration end. Politicians from Indian- and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir held direct talks: separatist leaders from both sides yet to be allowed to join official peace process. Deadly clashes continued between Indian security forces and militants in Indian-administered Kashmir. Foreign ministers of Pakistan and India to meet 3 October.
India and Pakistan agreed to swap hundreds of prisoners after 2-day talks as part of ongoing peace process. Indian PM Singh and Pakistani President Musharraf to meet 14 September on sidelines of UN summit in New York in first face- to-face talks since April. Singh announced would meet with moderate faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference for first time 5 September in Delhi. Pakistan tested cruise missile with 500 km range 11 August; did not notify Indian officials, claiming test notification agreement with India signed days earlier did not cover cruise missiles. Series of grenade attacks on Indian security forces in Sopor, north of Srinagar, wounded 14.
Indian PM Manmohan Singh warned rising violence in Kashmir and 5 July Ayodhya shrine militant attacks (see India) could jeopardise peace talks. Security forces in Indian-administered Kashmir reportedly killed 13 infiltrators across Line of Control in Gulmarg region. Operations continued against militants in Gurez area. Srinagar car bomb, claimed by Hizbul Mujahideen militant group, killed 4 soldiers and civilian 20 July. Other incidents included 24-hour stand-off between militants and security forces in Srinagar ending with death of 2 militants 30 July. Indian security forces’ fatal shooting of 3 teenaged boys mistaken for militants sparked mass protests and 4-day strike Srinagar from 24 July. Indian and Pakistani experts to meet 5-6 August for third round talks on military issues and nuclear CBMs.
Moderate faction of Kashmiri separatist Hurriyat Conference alliance (APHC) indicated desire to resume talks with Indian government after 2 week visit to Pakistan and talks with President Pervez Musharraf. But signs of disagreement among APHC leaders and counterparts in Pakistan- administered Kashmir on province’s future. Violence continued: 23 killed in separate car bombs 13, 24 June; other incidents included killing of 3 civilians in their home 30 June. Pakistan and India concluded round of talks on dam dispute 29 June - to have high-level contact early July at Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan (as observer nations).
Upsurge of violence since resumption of bus route between India and Pakistan across Line Of Control. Militant attacks in Srinagar 11-12 May killed 4, injured 84, including many school children. Separatist leaders from Indian-held Kashmir agreed to Pakistan’s invitation to discuss future of region 2 June, though hardline faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference refused to attend; 17 killed in clashes ahead of visit. Rise in militancy dampened hopes New Delhi would reduce troop numbers.
Jubilation of Kashmiris on both sides of Line of Control as bus service, suspended since partition in 1947, resumed 7 April. Separatist groups attempted to intimidate passengers: attacked passengers’ housing in Srinagar; exploded landmines on route; and labelled those boarding bus “traitors”. Meeting between President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi 17 April resulted in joint statement calling peace process “irreversible”, promised to work towards “soft border” - opening meeting points for divided families and boosting trade and travel across frontier. At least 40 killed in separate clashes between militants and security forces. Head of largest militant group, Hizbul Mujahideen, reportedly ready for peace talks if invited by New Delhi.
India/Pakistan normalisation process continued amid signs of Pakistani impatience over lack of progress over Kashmir and differences over U.S. sale of F-16s to Pakistan. Over 500 prisoners, mostly Gujarat fishermen, released by Pakistan, while New Delhi extended invitation to President Pervez Musharraf for 17 April cricket international and meeting with Indian PM Manmohan Singh. Srinagar/Muzaffarabad bus link due to start 7 April. Sporadic attacks by separatist militants (opposed to bus link) on security forces continued.
Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri announced confidence-building measures after 16 February Islamabad talks, including bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad (to start 7 April) and agreement on cross-border Iran-India-Pakistan “peace pipeline”. Local elections held for first time in Jammu and Kashmir, voter turnout low due to separatist boycott calls. Some violence despite considerable security presence. Al-Mansurain militant group claimed responsibility for 24 February suicide attack on Srinagar government complex, killing 7.
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