CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
No sign of end to political impasse as Constituent Assembly again failed to pick new PM during month; Nepali Congress candidate Ram Chandra Poudel fell short of required majority in face of continued boycott by Maoists and UML. Finance ministry 18 Oct warned of financial crisis if Maoists continue to block passage of budget.
Political crisis continued as Constituent Assembly (CA) again failed to pick new PM, with neither Maoist leader Prachanda nor Nepali Congress candidate Ram Chandra Poudel winning required majority in 7 Sept vote. Maoists 17 Sept announced Prachanda withdrawing candidacy after agreement with Communist Party. Poudel again failed to gain majority in eighth CAvote 26 Sept, as Maoists and communists abstained, and again in 30 Sept vote. Govt and Maoists 13 Sept agreed integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants to be completed within 4 months. UNSC extended UNMIN mandate until 15 Jan 2011, after which mission will leave Nepal.
Country still without effective govt after Constituent Assembly failed to pick new PM in 6 and 23 Aug votes; neither Maoist leader Prachanda nor Nepali Congress party candidate Ram Chandra Poudel won required majority as UML and alliance of 4 Tarai-based parties continued to abstain and call for consensus govt. UNMIN 4 Aug expressed “deep concern” over early month moves by both Nepalese Army and Maoists to recruit new soldiers, in breach of 2006 peace agreement.
Political crisis continued as Constituent Assembly 23 July for 2nd time failed to pick new PM following ex-PM Madhav Nepal’s late June resignation: neither Maoist leader Prachanda nor NC party candidate Ram Chandra Paudel won required majority of votes. UML and alliance of 4 Tarai-based parties abstained, called for consensus govt; new vote scheduled for 2 Aug.
PM Madhav Nepal resigned 30 June to “end political stalemate and move peace process forward”; successor unclear, but unity govt including all CA parties likely. Maoists had during month accused PM Nepal of reneging on late May deal to resign; 21 June said will block passing of new budget (16 July deadline) unless he leaves post. PM Nepal accused Maoists of stalling peace process in resignation speech.
Maoists 28 May backed parliamentary bill to extend term of Constituent Assembly for 1 year; PM Madhav Nepal in return reportedly agreed to resign, opening up for new unity govt including Maoists. But political deadlock remained late-month as Maoists 31 May warned of “serious crisis” if PM does not resign within “promised” 5 days; Nepal said he will only resign if Maoists first disband own army, return property captured during civil war. Early month saw heightened unrest as estimated 150,000 Maoist supporters rallied in Kathmandu 1 May demanding coalition govt be replaced by Maoist-led govt. Maoists held general strike 2-7 May shutting down transport, schools, businesses; occasional clashes between protesters and merchants, residents attempting to break strike; estimated 20,000 rallied against the strike in Kathmandu. UNSC 12 May extended UNMIN mandate by 4 months.
Tensions rose over formation of new unity govt, constitution: political confrontation likely, but impending 28 May constitution deadline could encourage last-minute power-sharing deal. Ruling CPN-UML party 15 Apr admitted impossible to complete new charter by 28 May deadline; PM Madhav Nepal called for extension of at least 6 months. CPN-UML, NC agree with Maoists on formation of new unity govt; but disagreement on the position of PM: Maoists continued calls for PM Nepal’s resignation and own leader Prachanda to head new govt. Maoists 26 Apr announced “indefinite” nationwide strike from 2 May in protest against govt; 1 May staged 150,000-strong anti-govt demonstration in Kathmandu, largest protests since leaving govt. Controversy over army integration continued: Maoists 16 Apr rejected govt’s offer of reintegrating only 3,000 of total 19,600 ex-Maoist combatants into National Army.
Ex-PM Koirala, widely seen as key leader in negotiations between parties, died 20 March; Maoist leader Prachanda said death an “irreparable loss” to peace process. Govt 9 March again amended constitutional timetable; highly unlikely final draft will be ready by 28 May deadline. Army chief Gen. Gurung 11 March said will not admit Maoist soldiers into national army “en masse”; Maoists criticised as breach of peace agreement. UN 11 March said “disappointed and concerned” with slow progress of peace process. Unidentified gunmen 2 March killed independent newspaper publisher in Janakpur; in Kathmandu, hundreds of journalists protested deteriorating security for media workers 3 March. Ex-King Gyanendra 25 March said he still believes monarchy can be restored.
Royalist RPP-Nepal party launched general strike 22 Feb in Kathmandu, Bkaktapur and Lalitpur, demanding plebiscite on reinstatement of monarchy; 1st royalist strike since monarchy abolished 2008, no violence reported. VP Jha sworn in 7 Feb after taking oath in Nepali and Maithili languages; Supreme Court Aug ruled his previous oath in Hindi unconstitutional. Senior NC party leader 19 Feb said NC will create own paramilitary force if violence by Maoists does not stop. Maoists 20 Feb rejected Indian claims that Maoist leader Prachanda had met with Indian Maoist leader Kobad Ghandy.
Maoists called off threatened nation-wide strikes after govt 8 Jan set up high-level political mechanism to “speed up” peace process and drafting of new constitution; panel made up of NC party president Girija Prasad Koirala, Maoist leader “Prachanda”, CPN-UML party chairman Jhalanath Khanal. Month-long UN-monitored process of releasing 4,000 disqualified Maoist combatants, including 3,000 child soldiers, from cantonments started 7 Jan. Supreme Court 22 Jan approved promotion of officer accused of overseeing rights abuses during civil war to army second-in-command. UNSC 21 Jan extended UNMIS mandate by 4 months to 15 May.
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