CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Twice-postponed Constituent Assembly (CA) polls held 10 Apr under generally free and fair conditions with little violence; turnout over 60%. Maoists picked up half assembly’s first-past-the-post seats, and 240 of 601 total. Nepali Congress and UML party trailed with second, third-strongest showings; haggling underway to form power-sharing govt. Maoist leader Prachanda hopes to assume presidency. CA to convene in May; declaration of republic tops agenda as Maoists called on King Gyanendra to “go gracefully”. Royalist politician Rudra Bahadur Singh shot dead 18 Apr.
10 Apr Constituent Assembly polls present risk of violence, yet also significant potential if unity government follows. Maoists accused of using force and intimidation to disrupt rival parties’ campaigns; several cases of reported Maoists interference in rallies. 1 candidate killed 18 March; dozens injured in election-related violence. Other parties also engaged in misconduct; 8 Maoist party workers killed. UNMIN, OHCHR, others expressed concern over violations of poll-related human rights. 3 leading party leaders signed joint pledge 30 March, committed to hold elections in free and fair environment. 810 election observers on location for polls. Daily anti-Chinese demonstrations by Tibetans held from 10 March in capital, where clashes broke out with police; several hundred protesters detained, vast majority only for brief period. 2 killed in bomb attack on Biritnagar mosque 30 March, Hindu extremist group Nepal Defence Army claimed responsibility.
7-party government signed 8-point deal with United Madhes Democratic Front (UMDF) umbrella group 28 Feb, ending crippling indefinite strike called by UMDF 13 Feb. Among key points: considerable (but undefined) autonomy for Tarai plains, greater proportion of seats reserved in Constituent Assembly (30%) for Madhesi representatives, integration of Madhesi forces into Nepali Army, advancement of Madhesi and minorities in civil service. Separate deal signed with Federal Republican National Front 1 March. Strike caused at least 5 deaths, including 3 protestors and 2 police, and cut off fuel supplies to Kathmandu at times. Nepali Congress party condemned Maoist reactivation of United Revolutionary People’s Council, disbanded in 2006, calling it “parallel government”. Main parties continued to insist on polls at any cost but some royalists have joined boycott.
Constituent Assembly elections rescheduled for 10 Apr. Situation fragile despite momentum from government commitment. Campaigning started around country, but marred by explosions at Kathmandu party rallies 14 and 30 Jan, injuring 8, 55. Tarai Army rebel group claimed responsibility for 18 Jan bus attack that killed 7, days after government offered peace talks with rebel groups from south; several killings in month in Tarai as Madhesi groups continued joint protest. UNMIN mandate extended 6 months.
Maoists rejoined government 30 December, after deal with government led to 28 December vote by interim assembly to end monarchy. Assembly vote pre-empted decision by future constituent assembly, which must now endorse country’s status as republic upon its first meeting. Deal also altered rules for configuration of assembly to be elected in April polls: of 601 members, 240 first-past-the-post, 335 proportional representation, 25 nominated by PM. Science and technology minister and 3 Madhesi deputies resigned 10 December over government’s failure to address Madhesi grievances.
Interim government failed to set new date for constituent assembly elections and deadlock continued over Maoist demands to declare republic before election. Maoist leader Prachanda threatened to return to arms if demands not met. Inquiry by 3 Maoist parliamentarians into October killing of journalist Birendra Sah blamed 2 Maoist officials acting under orders of local command. Cabinet agreed to request UN extend UNMIN mandate by 6 months; UN SRSG Ian Martin pushed for focus on peace deal implementation and monitoring and security sector reform.
Constituent Assembly polls postponed indefinitely after crisis talks 5 October failed to bring Maoists back into government. Deadlock persists over Maoist demands to vote on republic prior to elections and shift to full proportional representation.
Tension rose in lead-up to 22 November Constituent Assembly elections. 4 Maoist ministers resigned from cabinet 18 September after PM Koirala rejected demands for pre-poll republic declaration and change to electoral system. Negotiations on new compromise continue; 25 September reunification of Nepali Congress Party and its adoption of federal republican agenda may make grounds for deal. 3 killed and over 20 wounded in 3 simultaneous bomb blasts in Kathmandu 2 September; Madhesi groups seeking Tarai autonomy claimed responsibility. Communal clashes in Kapilvastu district on Indian border 16 September killed over 20.
Government figures underscored commitment to 22 November poll date after much-denied reports Maoist leader Prachanda mooted 5-month postponement. Maoists threatened protests ahead of elections to secure guarantee new government will declare Nepal republic. King Gyanendra vacated Nagarjuna palace 24 August after government moved to nationalise 20 royal properties.
Coalition government partners including Maoists insist 22 November constituent assembly elections will go ahead. But confused messages continue, with UN verification of Maoist combatants stalled as they demand progress in other parts of peace deal, including security sector reform. Budget passed with cuts to royal allowances; economic growth targets revised down. Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula threatened security crackdown in Tarai plains but preliminary talks with some groups underway.
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