PM Deuba faced criticism for his role in enabling split in largest opposition party as former PM and senior communist leader Madhav Kumar Nepal pledged to join ruling coalition. PM Deuba’s cabinet remained skeletal, with only four ministers appointed seven weeks after govt formation and Deuba overseeing 17 ministries. Lingering tensions within opposition Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist, or UML) delayed ruling coalition’s plans to expand cabinet as Deuba sought support from UML leading figure and former PM Madhav Kumar Nepal; Nepal – whose support was critical to Deuba winning vote of confidence in mid-July – 18 Aug formally split from UML and announced formation of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist), now fourth largest party with 23 seats in 271-member House of Representatives; new party 26 Aug announced it would join coalition govt. Deuba faced criticism for issuing ordinance 18 Aug lowering criteria for formation of new political party to enable UML’s breakup in move observers claimed was reminiscent of previous PM Oli-led govt’s reliance on “ruling by ordinance”.

Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba appointed new PM after Supreme Court blocked K.P. Oli’s second attempt to dissolve parliament and ruled out prospects of early elections. Supreme Court’s Constitutional Bench 12 July overturned Oli’s 21 May bid to dissolve House of Representatives, ruling it unconstitutional; court also ruled that President Bhandari’s rejection of Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba’s attempt to form new govt in May contravened statute and ordered Deuba be appointed PM; Deuba was sworn into office 13 July. Court’s verdict was criticised by Oli, with his supporters 12 July staging protests against ruling party and Oli’s party 16 July deciding to campaign against decision. Supreme Court Bar Association 15 July expressed serious concern over Oli’s remarks as well as burning of effigies representing chief justice by his supporters. Deuba 18 July received vote of confidence in reinstated House of Representatives, preventing early general election and confirming his mandate to govern until next elections, due to be held in winter 2022.

Supreme Court began hearings against President Bhandari’s decision to dissolve House of Representatives in May. Supreme Court’s Constitutional Bench 23 June began deliberations on over 30 petitions – including one by opposition Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and backed by 146 MPs – challenging Bhandari’s dissolution of lower house of parliament on 22 May. Petitioners questioned Bhandari’s impartiality, claimed her disqualification of Deuba’s candidacy to lead govt in May was “extra-constitutional”, and characterised dissolution as encroachment on legislature’s jurisdiction. In written clarifications submitted to Court 17 June, Bhandari argued that decisions by Office of the President cannot come under judicial review, while PM KP Oli same day claimed that court cannot adjudicate political issue. Earlier, court itself faced criticism over composition of Constitutional Bench, prompting reshuffle by Chief Justice Cholendra Rana 6 June following accusations of conflicts of interest. Court 22 June delivered blow to Oli after annulling PM’s appointments of 20 ministers on 4 and 10 June, arguing that cabinet expansions contravened constitution given current govt’s caretaker status.

President Bhandari dissolved lower house of parliament for second time in six months and announced elections for mid-November, sparking widespread criticism that move undermines 2015 constitution. PM KP Oli 10 May lost vote of confidence, prompting Bhandari same day to call on opposition parties to form new majority govt within three days; after failure of parties to secure majority, Bhandari 13 May reappointed Oli as premier. Following political maneuvering among opposition parties in House of Representatives, 149 MPs from Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) and dissenting factions of Janata Samajbadi Party and Unified Marxist-Leninist parties 21 May presented signatures to Bhandari requesting that head of Nepali Congress party Sher Bahadur Deuba be appointed PM; later same day, Oli also presented his candidacy, claiming support of 153 parliamentarians, including several backing Deuba. After declaring that she could not appoint either candidate due to insufficient support, Bhandari 21 May dissolved parliament for second time since Dec 2020. Bhandari’s ongoing support for Oli – who had consistently sought elections in recent months – was widely criticised as undermining 2015 constitution; 146 MPs 24 May filed joint petition at Supreme Court challenging dissolution of parliament’s lower chamber and demanding its reinstatement.

Ruling party and opposition continued competing efforts to secure majority in parliament; meanwhile, govt faced criticism for handling of COVID-19 pandemic. Prospects of potential vote of no-confidence against PM KP Oli continued to linger with opposition Nepali Congress — which has 61 seats in 275-member House of Representatives — 2 April announcing decision to seek Oli’s resignation and form new govt under its own leadership; Nepali Congress, however, had yet to follow through on its decision by late April, leading to claims from observers that some of its leaders would prefer holding early elections instead. Ruling Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist or UML), accelerated its outreach to opposition Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) — the fourth largest party holding 32 seats in parliament — including by offering to release detained JSP cadres in exchange for party joining the UML govt; potential UML-JSP coalition govt would likely render any no-confidence motion against Oli unsuccessful. Capital Kathmandu 29 April entered another strict lockdown following sharp uptick in COVID-19 infections, which increased 1,000% 15-30 April, leading to widespread criticism of govt for lack of precautionary measures and preparedness despite earlier appeals from ministry of health and population officials.

Supreme Court dissolved ruling party, bringing judiciary’s independence into question and prompting political jockeying in parliament as PM KP Oli reportedly sought fresh elections. In unexpected decision, Supreme Court 7 March invalidated legal status of ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) in response to 2018 petition by another party with same name. Decision created fresh political uncertainty, effectively dissolving NCP and annulling 2018 merger between Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre); both parties now effectively reinstated. Ruling came hours before House of Representatives — recalled after Supreme Court last month overturned December 2020 dissolution by Oli — reconvened. Supreme Court 31 March rejected petition filed by Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal 30 March seeking a review of 7 March decision. Original ruling sparked discussions between formerly merged communist parties and opposition leaders on potential new alliances to secure parliamentary majority or possible no-confidence motion against Oli. Tensions between Oli and senior communist leader Madhav Kumar Nepal escalated as Oli 29 March suspended Kumar Nepal from newly reinstated Unified Marxist-Leninist party. Oli’s absence from House of Representatives throughout month fuelled speculation that he is attempting to discredit parliament in bid to once again call for fresh elections. 

Supreme Court overturned PM KP Oli’s decision to dissolve House of Representatives amid ongoing dispute between ruling party factions. In landmark decision, Supreme Court 23 Feb overturned PM KP Oli’s 20 Dec bid to dissolve House of Representatives – thereby reinstating parliament – and called for winter legislative session to be convened by 8 March; decision widely lauded for safeguarding constitutional framework of 2015 charter and preserving judicial independence. Despite renewed calls for Oli’s resignation following verdict, PM refused to step down and his press adviser 23 Feb stated that while Court’s ruling should be accepted, Oli would be “facing” House of Representatives. Discussions around potential no-confidence motion against Oli gathered pace following court’s decision but were complicated by internal rift within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Competition continued throughout Feb between Oli-led faction and faction led by former PMs Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal as both continued bids to be recognised as legitimate version of party after Election Commission refused in Jan to recognise either wing’s legitimacy; Dahal-Nepal faction 2 Feb submitted new application to Election Commission that could have bearing on formation of new govt. Nepali Congress, second-largest party in parliament and touted as likely “kingmaker” once parliament reconvenes, 25 Feb announced it would not yet take sides despite appeals for support from both NCP factions.

Amid anti-govt protests, Supreme Court continued to consider legality of PM KP Oli’s Dec decision to dissolve lower house of parliament. As Supreme Court considered cases against Oli’s dissolution of parliament, court 28 Jan issued two contempt of court notices to PM after he 22 Jan mocked senior lawyers petitioning against dissolution; contempt of court notices also followed several statements by Oli calling on Supreme Court to rule in his favour, including 3 Jan claim that issue did not warrant judicial review. Street protests against Oli’s move continued as faction of ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) led by former PMs Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal 22 Jan led demonstrations in capital Kathmandu; police response to 25 Jan civil society-led march on PM’s residence widely criticised as heavy-handed as police beat peaceful demonstrators and used water cannons; opposition Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party both announced nationwide protests throughout first half of Feb. Election Commission 24 Jan decided not to recognise either of two competing factions of NCP – led by Oli on one side, and Dahal and Nepal on other – as legitimate wing of party, creating new legal uncertainties about party’s future. Meanwhile, FM Pradeep Gyawali visited India 14-16 Jan to discuss bilateral cooperation but made no notable progress on boundary dispute, which had triggered May 2020 diplomatic standoff.  

PM KP Oli’s decision to dissolve parliament and schedule new elections triggered protests and political crisis. Months of internal tensions within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and increasing pressure on PM KP Oli to resign reached boiling point as Oli 20 Dec dissolved lower house of parliament and announced fresh elections for April/May 2021. The move, authorised by President Bidya Bhandari, drew widespread rebuke for violating 2015 constitution, called into question credibility of offices of PM and president, triggered protests across country and sparked period of political uncertainty. Oli’s decision to sack parliament followed his order (issued with immediate effect following presidential approval) 15 Dec to amend working procedures of Constitutional Council – tasked with making appointments to several key constitutional bodies – allowing PM to take decisions with quorum of three members, dispensing with previous consensus among five council members; both moves viewed as latest to consolidate power and centralise decision-making. Oli’s decision to dissolve parliament was immediately termed unconstitutional by other leaders, political parties, and civil society members for contravening 2015 constitution, which provides only limited pathways for parliamentary dissolution. Protesters late Dec held several mass demonstrations across country against dissolution and filed 13 writs at Supreme Court, which 25 Dec demanded written justification for move. Dissolution also widened NCP’s internal divisions; Oli’s faction 22 Dec expanded party’s central committee with 556 new members, while competing faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal same day removed Oli as party co-chair; disputes also emerged at provincial level as Dahal’s faction 27 Dec filed no-confidence motion against Oli-aligned chief minister in Province 1. Meanwhile, Guo Yezhou, vice minister of Communist Party of China’s International Department, 27-30 Dec visited capital Kathmandu, meeting several political leaders including PM and president reportedly to assess evolving political situation; earlier in month, Vijay Chauthaiwale, Foreign Cell chair of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party 10 Dec visited Nepal and met with PM Oli to discuss bilateral ties.

Intra-party dispute between PM KP Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, chair of ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), threatened to destabilise govt and split party. Dahal 13 Nov presented report at NCP secretariat meeting listing series of decisions made by Oli without proper internal consultation within party; Dahal’s report urged Oli to make “sacrifice” and indirectly called on him to resign. Oli 28 Nov countered with a separate report rejecting Dahal’s allegations and issued thinly veiled threats that Dahal could come under scrutiny via transitional justice processes underway to address abuses committed during ten-year conflict (1996-2006) when he was leading Maoist rebellion. Oli 21 Nov met with opposition Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, fuelling speculation that Oli- and Dahal-led factions may compete to reach an alliance with other major parties to retain parliamentary majority in event of formal NCP split. Meanwhile, bilateral relations with India continued to improve – notwithstanding unresolved border disputes – following 3-6 Nov visit by Indian Army Chief Gen. MM Naravane and 26-27 Nov visit by Indian FM Harsh Vardhan Shringla to capital Kathmandu; Naravane had suggested in May that Nepal was encouraged by China to raise border issue with India. Three Chinese Communist Party officials 24 Nov reportedly arrived to, among other things, voice Beijing’s concerns regarding Sept allegations that Chinese security forces had encroached into northern Nepali district of Humla; Chinese MFA 2 Nov dismissed reports as lacking factual basis. Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe 29 Nov visited Kathmandu to discuss military cooperation.