Divisions within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) re-emerged as govt struggled to mount response to worsening public health and economic crises. Despite efforts to address factional differences in Sept, tensions flared within NCP between PM KP Oli and party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, raising prospect that party could soon split. Oli 1 Oct nominated two officials close to him to key ambassadorships in U.S. and UK, despite previously committing to taking such decisions only after discussing with other party leaders. Leadership dispute in Karnali province surfaced as local NCP leaders 11 Oct registered no-confidence motion against provincial chief minister closely allied to Dahal; move reflected how factionalism is rife at several levels within party. Oli’s 14 Oct decision to shuffle cabinet portfolios and appoint three new ministers criticised by Dahal as unilateral and taken without adequate consultation with other NCP leaders. These dynamics made more complicated following Dahal’s claims of being unaware of Indian intelligence chief Samant Goel’s unannounced 21-22 Oct visit to capital Kathmandu where he met Oli; Goel’s visit was first by high-level Indian official since Nepal-India border tensions escalated in May; Indian Army chief General MM Naravane scheduled to visit 4 Nov in further efforts to mend bilateral relations. Meanwhile, World Bank 8 Oct projected economic growth for 2020/2021 fiscal year could fall as low as 0.1 per cent, with informal businesses — comprising 50% of all enterprises — suffering most acutely. Nepal’s COVID-19 total caseload 30 Oct reached 168,235 cases; healthcare sector severely strained with 12 Oct reports of hospital bed shortages in Kathmandu and patients being transferred to hotels.

 

Tensions with India persisted and new border issue with China emerged. Tensions with India, which had abated in Aug, threatened to escalate again after Nepal’s Ambassador to China Mahendra Pandey 28 Sept accused Delhi of encroachment into Nepali territory and blamed Indian media of spreading “fake propaganda” to undermine Nepal-China relations. Border issues with China arose with 23 Sept reports of Chinese security forces allegedly constructing several buildings inside Nepali territory in the northern district of Humla; Nepal’s MFA and China’s embassy in Kathmandu denied reports, contradicting local officials’ accounts. Ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) 3 Sept nominated senior leader Bamdev Gautam to upper house of parliament in bid to ease internal party divisions; legal experts criticised decision for contravening 2015 constitution outlining that upper house appointments are partly in place to address under-representation of minority groups; Supreme Court 23 Sept issued interim order halting appointment, citing need for “serious constitutional explanation”. During his address to UN General Assembly, PM KP Oli 25 Sept urged support for Nepal’s re-election to UN Human Rights Council; human rights activists have persistently called out govt for curbs on civil liberties and for failing to deliver on human rights commitments made in 2017 prior to first Human Rights Council term. Federal govt 28 Sept took over control of policing within Kathmandu valley despite protests from provincial leaders that move infringes on their constitutional rights; move seen as latest govt effort to undermine federal structure and further shrink provincial authority.

External and internal political pressures on ruling communist party eased following thaw in relations with India and halt in intra-party tensions. PM KP Oli 15 Aug called Indian PM Narendra Modi to mark India’s Independence Day and, in first conversation between two leaders since border dispute began in May, mentioned looking forward to “meaningful cooperation” with New Delhi. Technical-level bilateral channels also reopened following 17 Aug eighth meeting of Nepal-India Oversight Mechanism (tasked in 2016 to oversee implementation of bilateral developmental projects) with Foreign Secretary Shanker Das Bairagi and India’s Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra; following discussions, foreign ministry officials proposed convening Boundary Working Group - joint entity formed by two govts in 2014 - which could pave way for formal dialogue on ongoing border row. Indian officials 20 Aug reportedly ruled out discussing contested territory along Nepal’s north-western border at Working Group level, instead preferring to address it between respective foreign secretaries. Meanwhile, leadership tensions within Nepal Communist Party (NCP) eased after internal task force formed by co-chairs Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal 22 Aug recommended Oli continuing as PM – with imminent cabinet reshuffle – while Dahal serves as party’s executive chair. NCP’s haphazard COVID-19 response continued to elicit widespread criticism with provincial-level officials accusing Oli’s govt of undermining transition to federalism after he 17 Aug empowered district administrators – instead of provincial leaders – with greater authority to tackle pandemic.

Pressure on PM KP Oli grew within Nepal Communist Party (NCP) while bilateral tensions with India continued. Faction of senior NCP leaders Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal reiterated calls for Oli’s resignation. President Bidya Bhandari 2 July prorogued parliament on Oli’s recommendation, preventing potential no-confidence motion. After several rounds of unsuccessful talks with Dahal, Oli 18 July proposed holding NCP’s first general convention in Nov/Dec where Dahal would be appointed sole party chair in exchange for Oli retaining prime ministership; talks drew criticism from other senior NCP leaders who alleged move neglected their grievances. Dahal, Nepal and other senior leaders 28 July held long-awaited NCP standing committee meeting despite Oli’s absence; leaders criticised Oli’s flouting party rules but stopped short of demanding his resignation from office. NCP vice chair Bamdev Gautam 28 July floated proposal similar to Oli’s – allowing him to finish his five-year PM term while Dahal would assume NCP leadership. Meanwhile, bilateral tensions with India continued. Govt 9 July banned Indian news television broadcasts, purportedly in response to insults and allegations against Oli; govt 12 July partially repealed measure after civil society criticised ban for undermining press freedom; head of govt’s press oversight body 13 July stated that “press freedom has its limitations”. Oli 13 July accused India of “cultural aggression” and claimed that notable Hindu deity was born in Nepal instead of India; Oli’s statement next day drew rebuke from NCP leaders, former ministers and diplomats for further straining relations with Delhi.

Pressure on govt increased following rising tensions with India linked to competing territorial claims, prompting calls within ruling party for PM to resign, while peaceful public protests took place against govt’s poor handling of COVID-19 pandemic. Parliament 13 June unanimously approved constitutional amendment updating country’s political map to reflect Kathmandu’s claims over territory contested between Nepal and India, escalating dispute with Delhi. Several senior leaders of ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) 26 June criticised PM KP Oli at party meeting — which Oli skipped — for failing to initiate talks with India over border dispute and for govt’s overall lack of competence. Amid tensions with Delhi, Oli 28 June accused India of trying to unseat him as PM; NCP senior leaders, including former PMs Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal, 30 June urged Oli to step down from both PM and party chair positions, with other party leaders demanding proof of Oli’s claims against Delhi, describing them as “diplomatic disaster” for bilateral ties. Widespread peaceful anti-govt protests throughout June demanded better quarantine facilities and transparency regarding use of donor funds earmarked for COVID-19 response. Opposition parties and private-sector leaders expressed concerns late June over govt’s authoritarian turn following proposed legislation enabling national anti-corruption body to investigate private-sector entities; parliament 27 June decided to review bill in light of criticism.

Amid rapid spread of COVID-19 and growing pressures on country’s limited health care system, bilateral tensions with India rose over disputed territory along north-western border. After Indian defense minister 8 May inaugurated new road traversing Nepal-claimed Lipulekh pass, FM Pradeep Gyawali 11 May delivered note verbale to Indian ambassador urging Delhi to stop unilateral construction in disputed territory. Despite widespread support from opposition on Lipulekh dispute, govt faced fresh criticism for sluggish reaction to India’s Nov 2019 issuance of new political map which included Kalapani – another disputed area adjacent to Lipulekh – within India’s territory. Nepalese cabinet 18 May endorsed new political map including 335 sq km of disputed territories in north west border region; govt 22 May registered constitutional amendment proposal in parliament to update national emblem to reflect new map. In response, India’s ministry of external affairs said map was “artificial enlargement of territorial claims” and Indian Army Chief MM Naravane drew criticism from Nepali leaders after suggesting Kathmandu’s reaction was at behest of China. PM KP Oli raised tensions further during 19 May parliamentary address by blaming Nepal’s increasing COVID-19 cases on individuals arriving illegally from India. Upper house 20 May endorsed controversial proposed bill granting national intelligence agency sweeping surveillance authority; lower house approval required before bill adopted as law.

Leadership disputes escalated within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), threatening stability of PM KP Oli’s govt and drawing further attention to sluggish handling of COVID-19 pandemic. NCP Co-Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal and senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, among others, demanded Oli’s resignation as PM and party chair for ignoring views of other party members in relation to Oli’s controversial legal move to issue two ordinances 20 April aimed at easing the threshold for registration of new political parties and appointments to Constitutional Council. Ordinances widely criticised for politically exploiting COVID-19 pandemic during which parliament is suspended, and for neglecting dissenting members of Oli’s own cabinet; ordinances eventually repealed 24 April by President Bidya Devi Bhandari. NCP govt’s stifling of dissent was in focus again with 22 April arrest of former bureaucrat Bhim Upadhyaya, a vocal critic of NCP govt, for allegedly posting misinformation about COVID-19 pandemic and accused of defaming Oli and his cabinet members on social media; 13 other people charged under similar cybercrime offences over online posts related to COVID-19 during lockdown. World Food Programme 18 April warned of looming food insecurity due to significant reductions in harvest of wheat and other winter crops; govt seeking up to $860mn in new donor funding to cover healthcare costs. Govt’s continued refusal to re-admit Nepali citizens into country received widespread criticism with Supreme Court 17 April issuing interim order directing govt to rescue high-risk Nepali migrant workers stranded abroad following 22 March ban on incoming international flights; over 20,000 Nepali citizens in India remain unable to return due to border closure and thousands others stuck in lockdown in Gulf countries. Govt 26 April extended nationwide lockdown until 7 May.

COVID-19 fears dominated political discourse with Nepal Communist Party-led govt coming under criticism for sluggish preparedness and for not stemming spread of misinformation regarding coronavirus. Govt declared countrywide lockdown 24 March following second confirmed positive case – first one was in Jan; govt also closed borders with India and China 23 March, and banned all incoming flights starting 22 March. COVID-19 related measures introduced as local officials called for attention to lack of clear directives from federal govt, forcing them early March to issue separate directives for constituents to take precautions. NGO Human Rights Watch 31 Mar called out govt for denying migrant workers based in India right to return home, also drew attention to Nepali migrant labourers stranded in Gulf. As PM KP Oli underwent a second kidney transplant 4 March, concerns over his health further increased.

Fractures within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) over disputes surrounding senior leader Bam Dev Gautam dominated political discussions, fuelling growing tensions between PM KP Oli and his fellow party co-chair and former Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and adding to uncertainty about stability of current govt. Differences centered over a series of decisions potentially paving way for Gautam to ascend to prime ministership with Dahal’s backing. NCP central committee meeting 2 Feb appointed Gautam party vice-chairperson and party leaders 22 Feb formed task force led by former PM Madhav Kumar Nepal to work toward amending 2015 constitution to allow members of upper parliamentary house to be appointed PM; currently only lower house members can become PM. NCP secretariat meeting 26 Feb nominated Gautam for seat in upper house where 19 of 59 total members are due to be replaced by 3 Mar, Gautam had lost his parliamentary election contest in 2017 and is currently not an MP; Oli rejected Gautam’s nomination hours later, underscoring divisions within NCP leadership. Seventeen editors of Nepal’s leading news agencies issued statement 19 Feb defending press freedoms and condemning Chinese embassy for issuing threats in its 18 Feb communiqué, Chinese embassy had expressed dissatisfaction with op-ed printed in The Kathmandu Post criticising China’s response to Coronavirus outbreak, and threatened further action against paper’s chief editor.

Ruling Nepal Communist Party’s (NCP) stance on justice and accountability came into sharp focus with 26 Jan appointment of Maoist leader Agni Sapkota as new Speaker of House of Representatives; Sapkota is currently facing charges for abduction and murder during Maoist-led insurgency. Human rights activist Sushil Pyakurel resigned 24 Jan from advisory position to President Bhandari after calls to withdraw case involving Sapkota; Pyakurel had been among those who encouraged Supreme Court in 2011 to open investigation into Sapkota’s alleged crimes. Victims of 10-year civil war rebuked 18 Jan agreement between NCP and opposition Nepali Congress to appoint officials for two transitional justice commissions; activists claimed parties’ handpicking of representatives undermined commissions’ independence. In joint statement NGOs Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, International Commission of Jurists and TRIAL International 25 Jan expressed concerns about “serious setback on Nepal’s transitional justice”, said govt’s disregard for accountability will encourage victims to seek justice internationally under universal jurisdiction. Communist Party of Nepal led by hardline Maoist leader Netra Bikram Chand claimed responsibility for 15 Jan IED explosion in capital Kathmandu; Nepal Army also defused several other IEDs planted in capital same day.