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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Nepal

Concerns about KP Oli-led govt’s curtailing of civil liberties continued to grow with two new bills proposed by govt in Feb – one imposing numerous restrictions on content shared via social networks and granting govt sweeping powers to block social media platforms not registered in Nepal; and another barring current and retired civil servants from expressing their opinions on any public or social platforms. Both draft bills were criticised for attempting to restrict freedom of speech, increase state surveillance, and silence dissent. Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) – led by hardline Maoist leader Netra Bikram Chand – claimed responsibility for series of attacks 22 Feb on telecommunications company; attacks included IED explosion in southern Kathmandu valley where one person was killed and two more injured; arson attacks also carried out on company’s telephone towers in several districts; attacks came amid reports of CPN growing in strength in some midwestern districts. Parliament 6 Feb formally endorsed legislation extending terms of two transitional justice bodies by one year; differences over future of transitional justice mechanisms reportedly contributing to tensions between the two leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party – PM Oli and former Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal.

Asia

Nepal

Govt 28 Jan decided to extend terms of two transitional justice mechanisms on truth and reconciliation and on enforced disappearances by one year, days before their mandates were due to expire on 9 Feb; both mechanisms, formed in 2015, have made little progress on investigating over 65,000 conflict-era cases. UN and nine embassies including the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Australia, and the EU issued joint statement 24 Jan asking govt to clarify future of transitional justice process and to encourage greater public consultation especially with victims. Victims’ groups claim both mechanisms have failed to deliver and require restructuring; govt yet to address calls to amend transitional justice legislation to prohibit amnesty for perpetrators of serious human rights violations. Madhes (southern lowland)-based Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum-Nepal – member of ruling coalition – 5 Jan submitted 11-point memorandum to PM KP Oli calling for current session of parliament to pursue constitutional amendments related to federalism and proportional representation. Tensions between federal and newly-created provincial-level govts continued to increase following 14 Jan tabling of policing legislation in federal parliament; provincial officials claim legislation grants disproportionate authority to federal govt on managing provincial security, reflects distrust of local govt, and dilutes new federal structure.

Asia

Nepal

Tensions within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and between the party and its critics continued to escalate, while main opposition party Nepali Congress (NC) remained preoccupied with internal factionalism and unable to credibly pressure govt. Following several delays, NCP 15 Dec commenced first internal standing committee meeting since July to review govt performance thus far and address divisions within party; at meeting senior leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha issued sharp rebuke of govt – led by NCP’s PM KP Oli – for being interested solely in profiteering and blamed “crony capitalists” within leadership for enabling corruption; Shrestha also termed party’s leaders weak for marginalising critics. NC continued to be hamstrung by internal differences; NC’s long-awaited general convention 15-22 Dec highlighted divisions between party’s factions and ended with outcome document heavily criticising Oli-led govt. Oli 5 Dec issued warning to intellectuals criticising his govt; comments perceived as threatening by several civil society leaders. Concerns about mandate of two transitional justice mechanisms on truth and reconciliation and enforced disappearances grew, with their terms ending Feb 2019; govt yet to decide on extending term despite only fraction of total cases being investigated and amid calls for mechanisms to be restructured.

Asia

Nepal

Criticism of Nepal Communist Party (NCP)-led govt continued to grow over its slow performance and increasing lack of transparency. Govt widely criticised for violating working procedure and not disclosing decisions taken in 11 Nov Council of Ministers meeting; media representatives described move as latest in effort to curb press freedom. PM K.P. Oli also initiated performance evaluation of his cabinet amid calls for a reshuffle. Oli was criticised for glorifying himself in bid to highlight govt’s progress with full front-page advertisements featuring his photo across most major newspapers 27 Nov to roll out new Social Security policy; policy was first announced in 2009. Concerns raised by reports that govt is considering broadening National Intelligence Department mandate to allow intelligence-gathering on cabinet members, constitutional bodies, and non-state agencies. Senior NCP leaders frustrated with delays in holding meeting of party’s Standing Committee to address increasing internal dissent, which grew over lack of consultation on recent ambassadorial appointments. Rift between federal and provincial govts regarding devolution of power widened following 4 Nov circular that new civil service staff for provincial and local govt would be recruited at federal level. Human rights activists called on govt to press Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi to ensure safe return of Rohingya refugees during 29-30 Nov visit to Kathmandu for Asia Pacific Summit; Nepal one of 26 countries to abstain from voting on 16 Nov UN General Assembly resolution condemning human rights violations in Myanmar including against Rohingya Muslims.

Asia

Nepal

Internal dissent within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) continued to raise concerns about stability of govt. Senior NCP leaders criticised PM KP Oli for monopolising party decisions, including on appointments of provincial-level leaders; widespread censure by NCP members’ senior and rank-and-file members toward an eventually scrapped but haphazard plan to elect senior leader Bamdev Gautam into parliament after having a sitting MP resign also stoked internal discord. Govt’s sluggish performance and failure to empower provincial authorities in line with 2015 constitution also hampering governance and creating tensions between federal and provincial govts. NCP Co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal warned Province 2 (the only province out of seven in total composed of Tarai-only districts) to not “overtake” the federal govt after it endorsed provincial-level police act 13 Oct; Dahal argued the act contravened the constitution and undermined transition to federalism. Province 2 govt deferred threats to further adopt new legislation on civil service and a public service commission for a month following federal govt assurance it would enact necessary laws within that time; federal govt also claimed it would authorise provinces to handle internal security matters until a federal police act is issued.

Asia

Nepal

At 19 Sept Constitution Day event, PM Oli claimed rights-based movements “should be history” and focus should now be on “prosperity and development”; Oli also criticised recent public protests against govt’s increasing limitations of civil liberties. Three years since promulgation of Sept 2015 constitution, amendments demanded by southern plains-based Madhesi parties related to redrawing new federal provincial boundaries, equal rights for naturalised citizens, population-based provincial representation in upper house of parliament (all seven provinces currently get eight seats) remain unaddressed; Madhesi parties’ agitation for amendments waned considerably following 2017 elections. Nepal Army withdrew from participating in mid-Sept joint military exercise between Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries initiated by India following 30-31 Aug summit after criticism from both opposition and ruling party leaders about lack of discussion within parliament and lack of consultation with defence or foreign ministries. BIMSTEC controversy contributed to growing tensions within ruling Nepal Communist Party, with senior leaders reportedly discontent with Oli’s monopolising of leadership. NCP co-chair and former Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited India and China in Sept and met Indian PM Modi among others; visits reportedly linked to Dahal’s aspirations for prime ministership.

Asia

Nepal

Six months into PM KP Oli’s term, concerns about govt’s attacks on civil liberties heightened further with 17 Aug enforcement of new civil and criminal code criticised widely for provisions limiting press freedoms including outlawing photography without consent, recording conversations, disclosing private information on public figures, and criminalising satire, carrying prison sentences of up to three years for journalists found in violation. Following enactment of code, statutory governmental body Press Council Nepal summoned several print media editors to reprimand them for minor publication errors; one individual arrested 22 Aug for sharing image mocking Oli on Facebook group. Federation of Nepali Journalists issued declaration 25 Aug arguing for code to be immediately amended; Committee to Protect Journalists issued alert 20 Aug calling govt to repeal or amend code. Oli claimed criticisms were exaggerated. Allegations that police blamed an innocent local man for rape and murder of thirteen-year-old girl in far-western Kanchanpur district led to protests and clashes; police firing 24 Aug killed fourteen-year-old boy and injured 24 others. Incidents sparked wider protests against sexual violence against women; national survey revealed reported rapes increased 256% in past decade.

Asia

Nepal

Civil disobedience and concerns about the narrowing of political space dominated discussions between ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and opposition groups. Two simultaneous hunger strikes – by Dr Govinda KC, prominent doctor demanding medical sector reforms, and Ganga Maya Adhikari, demanding accountability for her son’s conflict-era killing in 2004 – created public pressure on govt. Opposition Nepali Congress (NC) and prominent civil society leaders subsequently criticised govt’s policy of restricting public protests to designated areas around country – first announced in April – as curtailing right to protest and contravening constitution. Supreme Court 6 July issued interim order to govt not to implement protest ban. NC 17 July announced nationwide protests to increase pressure against govt’s “totalitarian” decisions. UN Human Right Council experts 11 July claimed govt’s National Integrity Policy – aimed at monitoring and restricting NGO activity – could severely impinge on rights to free speech and association. Domestic activists and international organisations including Amnesty International and International Commission of Jurists criticised draft legislation to amend 2014 transitional justice act for critical flaws; urged govt to reconstitute transitional justice mechanisms, ensure punishment proportionate to gravity of crimes, and undertake transparent consultative process with victims’ groups.

Asia

Nepal

PM KP Oli continued regional diplomacy with 19-24 June visit to China where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping and signed agreements on improving cross-border connectivity including through a new railway network. Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum-Nepal (SSF-N), fourth largest party overall and second largest Madhesi party in parliament, joined govt 1 June with Chair Upendra Yadav appointed defence minister, giving ruling coalition over two-thirds parliamentary majority. Some leaders of Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N), largest Madhesi party in parliament, also expressed openness to joining govt but senior leader Rajendra Mahato outlined need for constitutional amendments as precondition and criticised SSF-N for weakening Madhesi movement. Home Ministry 7 June decision to closely monitor national and international NGOs and cancelling registrations of those engaged in “political activities” criticised by activists and civil society for undermining free speech. Similar concerns raised following cancellation of a talk show on state-run Nepal TV reportedly at direction of Information Minister Gokul Baskota following questions about his property holdings on the show. Govt request − citing completion of peace process − for closure of UN Department of Political Affairs (DPA) liaison office criticised by some for being poorly communicated; request was accompanied by concurrent accusatory media reports about office’s role; DPA 14 June announced office to close within three months.

Asia

Nepal

Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Nepal 11-12 May in ongoing effort to improve bilateral relations; visit focused largely on development, trade, and infrastructure cooperation, but also emphasised religious and cultural ties with a stop in religiously and politically significant Madhesi city of Janakpur. PM Oli to further regional diplomacy with visit to China late June. Ruling CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist centre) parties merged to form Nepal Communist Party (NCP) following seven months of negotiations and disputes over ideology and power-sharing; Oli and Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal to serve as co-chairs; unified party holds just under two thirds of seats (63%) in parliament. New party’s internal composition reflects stronger position of UML following its performance in recent elections; top-down nature of merger resulted in dissent within Maoist ranks about “undemocratic” process to select NCP’s central committee members. Following commitment by NCP leaders regarding constitutional amendments to address Madhesi demands, Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum-Nepal, the fourth largest party overall and second largest Madhesi party in parliament, agreed to join govt 28 May giving ruling coalition tw0-thirds majority. Largest Madhesi party in parliament, Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal claimed new govt budget announced 29 May overly centralised and fails to provide provinces sufficient financial resources.

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