Country successfully held second round of local elections 28 June, however new Nepali Congress (NC)-led govt made no progress on addressing demands of Madhesi parties who boycotted polls; increasing trust deficit casts further doubts about proposed amendments to 2015 constitution. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba elected PM 6 June; listed holding of local, provincial, and national elections by Jan 2018 as main priority. Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N) – main dissenting Madhesi party – supported Deuba’s candidacy on condition that he prioritise addressing their grievances. However, Deuba 9 June told parliament that amendments would not be possible prior to polls. Following RJP-N protests, strikes, and disruptions, govt 15 June postponed elections in central Tarai province – comprising eight of twenty southern-belt districts – until 18 Sept. Second phase of local elections held 28 June across remaining three provinces that include twelve southern-belt districts; voter turnout was 70.5% despite security concerns following IED explosions in three districts preceding week that injured seven people. RJP-N boycott of second phase undermined by some local-level party leaders contesting elections as independents. RJP-N cadres arrested in several parts of Tarai during protests throughout June; five injured in police firing during 17 June protests in Nawalparasi district.

Initial phase of first local elections in twenty years held successfully and paved way for PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s resignation; second phase remains uncertain with dissenting Madhesi parties’ grievances still unaddressed. First of two phase elections held 14 May across three provinces, encompassing 34 of 75 districts; opposition UML party won highest number of mayoral seats; ruling Nepali Congress and CPN (Maoist Center) came second and third in seat tally. PM Dahal resigned 24 May in keeping with agreement to hand over govt leadership to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba; Dahal continuing as caretaker PM until new govt formed. Govt attempting to bring Madhesi parties on board; 18 May withdrew cases filed against Madhesi and Tharu individuals involved in 2015 protests against new constitution; 22 May proposed to increase number of local units in southern plains – Supreme Court later stayed decision; 29 May postponed second phase of polls – to be conducted across four remaining provinces and 41 districts – from 14 to 23 June. Postponement followed dissenting Madhesi parties’ 26 May announcement to boycott elections and launch fresh protests. Ruling coalition 27 May decided to withdraw 30 April impeachment motion filed against Chief Justice Sushila Karki.

Despite some forward momentum toward local elections due to start in May, impeachment motion filed against Supreme Court Chief Justice Sushila Karki 30 April by Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN (Maoist Centre) MPs created fresh uncertainty regarding polls and future of ruling coalition. Following motion, which claims Karki interfered in govt’s appointment of police chief, senior NC leader and Deputy PM Bimalendra Nidhi resigned in protest; ruling coalition partner Rastriya Prajatantra Party also regarded as likely to withdraw support from govt. Prospect of holding polls in May had previously improved with 22 April agreement between govt and dissenting Madhesi parties to hold elections in two phases and to address most Madhesi demands through constitutional amendments increasing electoral constituencies in Tarai plains and creating federal commission to resolve issue of provincial boundaries; initial election phase to be held 14 May in three of seven provinces and second phase – under new NC-led govt following handover of power – to be conducted 14 June in remaining four provinces which include key Tarai constituencies. Six of seven dissenting Madhesi parties unified to form Rastriya Janata Party 21 April and, following agreement with govt, cancelled month-long protests planned to disrupt elections. However, postponement until 4 May of parliamentary discussions on govt’s new 11 April constitution amendment proposal – which mandates forming a commission to recommend provincial boundary revisions within three months – created further doubts about election timing; opposition UML party strongly opposed new proposal; parties have until 2 May to announce candidates. Three ex-army officers convicted 16 April of 2004 killing of fifteen-year old girl detained for supposed links to rebels. Supreme Court 30 April sentenced several former senior police officials including three former chiefs to prison for misuse of state funds.

Preparations for 14 May local elections continued despite clashes and deaths in Tarai plains over unaddressed constitutional demands, boycott threats from disgruntled Madhesi parties and Election Commission concerns over lack of consensus between parties. Opposition Communist Party of Nepal (UML) launched electoral campaign across most of southern belt; four died and several injured in police firing after Madhesi coalition obstructed UML’s 6 March Saptari district campaign event. Several protestors shot above waist, reigniting criticism of govt response to 2015 Tarai constitutional protests. Madhesi coalition enforced strikes across several Tarai districts and 15 March withdrew support from govt. PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal 15 March proposed amending constitution to address most Madhesi demands but deferring decision on contentious provincial boundaries. Monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) — opposed to proposed constitutional amendments — joined govt 9 March, further aggravating Madhesi coalition. RPP renewed calls for restoration of Hinduism as state religion. Govt decided to deploy 226,000 security personnel for election security; heavy security presence likely in eight Tarai districts categorised as “sensitive” due to potential disruptions. Foreign Ministry called on India to investigate 9 March killing of Nepali citizen in SW Kanchanpur district allegedly by Indian border security forces during dispute over construction on border.

Govt 20 Feb announced first post-conflict local elections to be held 14 May despite unresolved disputes over amendments to 2015 constitution; last local polls held in 1997. After claiming PM Dahal should resign if govt fails to hold elections by June, opposition UML party welcomed announcement but continued to oppose endorsement of amendment bill registered in parliament Nov 2016 that partially addresses dissenting Madhesi parties’ demands. Coalition of Madhesi parties criticised govt for “betraying” assurances that constitution would be amended prior to election-date decision, unveiled month-long protests throughout Tarai plains. Coalition activists clashed 22 Feb with UML cadres in Dhanusha district during coalition-enforced eastern Tarai strike; coalition supporters clashed with police 26 Feb in Rautahat district while attempting to disrupt UML gathering. Coalition discussing withdrawing support from ruling coalition. Controversial activist and proponent of “independent Madhes” CK Raut arrested 2 Feb in Rupandehi district; seventeen Raut supporters arrested 18 Feb in ensuing clashes with police. Govt 9 Feb extended terms of two transitional justice mechanisms on truth and reconciliation and disappearances one year until Feb 2018; new complaint registration period began 15 Feb; over 61,000 total complaints already received by both bodies.

Lack of progress on proposed constitutional amendments continued to cast doubts over local elections, with CPN (Maoist Center)-led govt unable to bridge divide between opposition UML party demanding polls be held first and dissenting Madhesi parties demanding amendments as prerequisite. Constitutional amendment bill tabled in parliament 8 Jan; proposal previously approved by cabinet in Nov but contested by UML which obstructed discussions in legislature. Madhesi alliance – claiming bill only partially addresses their grievances – announced mass demonstrations in southern Tarai plains 5 Feb to pressure govt on amendments as some momentum gathered toward elections, with CPN (Maoist Center), Nepali Congress, and UML 21 Jan agreeing to hold local polls by mid-May and Election Commission 24 Jan announcing it could conduct them by May-June. Differences emerged between two transitional justice mechanisms over seeking one-year extensions to terms ending 10 Feb: Commission on Disappearances favours extension; Truth and Reconciliation Commission demands legal amendments and additional resources as precondition. Judicial Council criticised for failing to reflect principles of inclusivity and proportional representation following 12 Jan recommendation of 80 judges for High Courts. Head of national anti-corruption body Lokman Singh Karki disqualified by Supreme Court 8 Jan amid pending parliamentary impeachment motion.

Local elections due April-May 2017 still uncertain due to unresolved constitutional disputes and differences sharpening over reforms sequencing. Opposition Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) and some ruling Nepali Congress (NC) leaders favour polls first so Sept 2015 constitution can be implemented; dissenting Madhesi parties argue constitutional provisions including new provincial boundaries must be amended before elections. Supreme Court 21 Dec appointed six-person amicus curiae team brief on suitability of local polls under existing or restructured administrative units. Despite these differences, NC 30 Dec tabled constitution amendment bill approved by cabinet 29 Nov and Madhesi alliance agreed to support bill; UML obstructed discussions in parliament, announced street protests for Jan 2017. Madhesi alliance objected to constitutionally-mandated Local-level Restructuring Commission’s recommendation to replace existing municipal- and village-level entities with over 720 new local administrative units due to contested provincial boundaries. Former King Gyanendra Shah expressed concern over “intolerable” state of political affairs in 21 Dec statement. Nepal Army (NA) 29 Nov announced first ever joint military exercise with China’s People’s Liberation Army for Feb 2017; NA regularly conducts similar exercises with India and U.S.

Cabinet 29 Nov approved constitution amendment proposal to partially address demands of dissenting Madhesi parties. Proposal alters new provinces’ borders with two provinces comprising only districts in southern Tarai plains — previously agreed model had one such province. Five contested Tarai districts in Eastern and Far-western regions remain attached to mainly hill provinces. Representation in upper house to be based partly on share of population, another demand of Madhesi parties. Proposal grants naturalised citizenship to non-Nepali women who marry Nepali men, significant for Madhesi parties as many Madhesi men marry women from India; no parallel provision for non-Nepali men who marry Nepalis. Proposal represents first major effort by CPN (Maoist Center)-led govt to address unresolved constitutional disputes. However, not all ruling coalition member Nepali Congress MPs support process. Opposition UML, parliament’s second largest party with 30% of seats, said proposal harmed national interests, threatened street protests and obstructions in parliament. Constitutional amendments require two-thirds parliamentary majority; govt now needs support from all smaller parties. Madhesi parties’ alliance could back proposal, though one member criticised lack of prior consultation. Protests held in five Western region districts 30 Nov against their inclusion in a plains-only province.

Little progress on constitutional disputes despite assurances of quick resolution from Maoist-headed govt led by PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Dissenting Madhesi and Janajati parties threatening to withdraw support from govt; some considering street protests. Mainstream parties occupied with impeachment motion filed 19 Oct by ruling CPN (Maoist Center) and opposition UML against Lokman Singh Karki, head of constitutional anti-corruption body, despite reservations of ruling coalition member Nepali Congress. Election Commission (EC) announced local elections in March 2017; govt tabled three of five related bills recommended by EC 4 Oct. Madhesi, Tharu and some Janajati actors reject local elections before resolution of constitutional disputes. Deputy PM Bimalendra Nidhi 4 Oct said that as confidence-building measure with protesting Madhesi and Tharu groups, charges would be dropped against individuals accused of involvement in Aug 2015 clashes in Tikapur in which several police were killed. PM Dahal 2 Oct assured Nepal Army that its officers would not be “dragged into” war-era transitional justice cases.

One year since Sept 2015 constitution’s adoption, unresolved demands from Madhesi parties to amend provisions on new provincial boundaries, inclusion, and proportional representation continue to hinder its full implementation. Some fear that not addressing these differences – especially on state restructuring – prior to elections may jeopardize proposed timelines to hold local, provincial, and federal polls before the current parliament’s term ends in January 2018. PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited New Delhi 15-18 Sept, met with Indian PM Modi and FM to continue rebuilding bilateral relationship following downturn in ties under previous UML-led govt. Amid calls for head of Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) – govt’s top anti-corruption body – to be impeached due to irregularities surrounding his 2013 appointment, CIAA began investigation 16 Sept into misuse of funds allocated for cantonment of ex-Maoist combatants while they awaited voluntary retirement or integration into state security forces following 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Fringe group of ex-Maoist combatants arrested for allegedly planting IEDs near eight Kathmandu-based schools 20 Sept. Nepal Army Colonel Kumar Lama 6 Sept acquitted by UK court of conflict-era torture charges; had been detained in Jan 2013.