CPN (Maoist Centre) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal elected prime minister 3 Aug; joined by Nepali Congress (NC) in new ruling coalition with UML in opposition. Dahal claimed addressing demands of dissenting Madhesi, Tharu, and Janajati groups and broadening buy-in for new constitution among govt’s top priorities. CPN(MC) and NC 2 Aug signed three-point deal with alliance of Madhesi and Janajati parties agreeing to compensate families of those killed during constitution-related protests in southern Tarai plains, and to register constitutional amendment in parliament to address demands on federal boundaries and inclusion. In exchange, alliance supported Dahal’s nomination for PM. Deputy PM Bimalendra Nidhi visited New Delhi 18-23 Aug, met with Indian PM Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj; visit underscored Dahal govt’s efforts to repair ties with India following difficult relations during KP Oli-led regime. Transitional justice mechanisms on truth and reconciliation and disappearances completed their case-registration period 10 Aug, have until Feb 2017 to investigate over 60,000 registered cases. Truth and Reconciliation Commission Chairperson Surya Kiran Gurung 30 Aug threatened to resign if transitional justice-related legislation was not amended in accordance with international standards, criticised govt for lack of cooperation.

PM KP Oli resigned 24 July after no-confidence motion filed 13 July by coalition partner CPN (Maoist Centre), or CPN (MC), citing ruling UML party’s failure to transfer govt leadership as previously agreed. Motion supported by opposition Nepali Congress (NC); two parties also blocked passing of fiscal 2016/17 budget. CPN (MC) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal seen as most likely new PM in coalition with NC, with NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba taking over after nine months. Dissenting Madhesi parties urged to join new govt, but seek assurances on constitutional amendments for disputed provincial boundaries and affirmative action. CPN (MC) and NC 27 July proposed postponing local elections from Nov to Feb-Mar 2017 to determine number and borders of village and municipal councils. Transitional justice (TJ) issues in spotlight amid concerns that new govt could transfer conflict-era cases to commissions on truth and reconciliation, and disappearances, already under strain to investigate over 55,000 complaints by February 2017 deadline. High-ranking leaders including Dahal and Deuba face charges.

Govt 16 June approved roadmap to hold local elections by Dec 2016, provincial assembly elections by April-May 2017, and federal parliamentary elections by Dec 2017; opposition criticised plan for implementing new constitution without addressing concerns regarding new provincial boundaries; ruling UML party warned elections would be held even without dissenting Madhesi parties’ buy-in. Coalition of Madhesi parties presented seven preconditions responding to 12 June govt invitation for dialogue including formation of judicial commission to investigate protest-related deaths in Tarai plains. Ruling coalition member Maoist Center held unsuccessful discussions with UML and opposition Nepali Congress on forming national unity govt. Naya Shakti Nepal ­– new party espousing good governance, economic progress, and inclusiveness led by Maoist ideologue and former PM Baburam Bhattarai – launched 12 June. Netra Bikram Chand’s breakaway CPN (Maoist) undertook large extortion drives and torched telecommunications stations across nine western and eastern districts 11 June, mimicking insurgency-era tactic of attacking key infrastructure. Two transitional justice bodies on truth, reconciliation and disappearances extended conflict-era case registration deadlines until mid-July as some victims reportedly unaware of filing process; over 47,000 total cases registered thus far including fifteen against Col. Kumar Lama who is awaiting trial in the UK on charges of torture during the conflict.

Ruling UML party thwarted bid by opposition Nepali Congress (NC) to topple govt through no confidence motion; ruling coalition member UCPN (Maoist) withdrew support from NC’s position following 6 May agreement with UML that included withdrawal of transitional justice cases related to war-era abuses. Dissenting Madhesi parties formed Federal Alliance with Tharu and Janajati groups to demand amendments to new constitution, improved governance, and post-earthquake reconstruction; following poorly-attended mid-May protests in Kathmandu, Alliance considering organising demonstrations along highways and calling strikes instead. Madhesi parties continue to refuse participation in govt-led mechanism to resolve disputes on state boundaries and inclusion. UCPN (Maoist) 19 May reunified with several smaller breakaway Maoist parties to form Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Center); hard-line leaders Mohan Baidya and Netra Bikram Chand not involved with new party. Concerns increased regarding govt’s increasing intolerance of criticism and dissent following arrest on corruption charges of a prominent commentator and deportation of a Canadian national for political tweets that allegedly caused “social discord”. Reports emerged late April that security forces reportedly sought personal details of complainants with the transitional justice commission on truth and reconciliation, and enforced disappearances.

Talks between mainstream and dissenting Madhesi parties on constitutional amendments remain stalled amid increasing indications that govt plans to begin implementing new constitution. Govt 8 April formed two committees to prepare transitional arrangements for new federal structure including identifying new provincial capitals; Madhesi parties opposed decision pointing to outstanding disputes over boundaries; opposition Nepali Congress demanded formation of new political mechanism to address boundary demarcation. PM KP Oli instructed ruling UML party leaders to prepare for local elections; govt seeking to hold initial phase of polls in earthquake-affected areas. Several Madhesi parties preoccupied by preparations for internal conventions which must be held by June according to Election Commission. Some Madhesi and smaller Janajati parties announced new alliance 18 April to increase pressure on govt to address demands of marginalised communities; alliance hamstrung by tactical disagreements over prioritising Kathmandu-centric or district-level protests. Two transitional justice mechanisms mid-April began 60-day complaint registration process for victims of 1996-2006 armed conflict; 2,344 cases received by Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and 604 cases received by commission investigating disappearances as of 28 April. PM Oli accused of attempted intimidation for reprimanding National Human Rights Commission officers 3 April after they criticised govt activities.

Constitution-related negotiations between mainstream and Madhesi parties remained stalled, no progress on disputes on state boundaries. In coalition of Madhesi parties, disagreements continued over strategy and form of further protests; public confidence in parties eroded in Tarai region. Supplies of petrol in Kathmandu normalised mid-March; shortages of diesel and cooking gas continued. Former PM Sher Bahadur Deuba elected new Nepali Congress president 7 March, triggering discussions on possible change of govt. PM KP Oli continued regional diplomatic efforts, visiting Beijing 20-27 March, signing bilateral transit transport agreement 21 March granting Nepal access to China’s ports; visit an effort to counterbalance trade dependence on India. Nepal Army announced former Maoist combatants integrated into its forces to be deployed in UN peacekeeping missions beginning July 2016; 85 of 1,420 ex-Maoist combatants to participate initially. Post-earthquake reconstruction efforts remain delayed due to political disputes, lack of policy framework or feasibility studies by National Reconstruction Authority (NRA); NRA CEO under investigation for alleged corruption in previous role as head of national Town Development Fund.

Five-month long blockade on essential supplies imposed by protesting Madhesi parties and groups along Indian border lifted 6 Feb following differences on strategy between parties comprising United Madhesi Democratic Front (UDMF) and increasing protester fatigue. Humanitarian situation eased despite fuel supplies remaining partially disrupted due to thriving black market. Govt began downsizing deployment of security forces across southern Tarai districts. Disputes regarding contentious constitutional provisions – especially key Madhesi demand related to demarcating new federal provinces – remained unresolved. Cabinet 18 Feb announced formation of political committee to discuss provincial boundaries; UDMF rejected decision, blaming lack of prior consultation on committee’s terms of reference. PM KP Oli visited New Delhi 19-23 Feb to help ease bilateral tensions following India’s criticisms of constitution-writing process and unofficial Indian support for blockade; Indian PM Modi reemphasized need for consensus and dialogue to ensure new constitution’s success. Former PM and Nepali Congress (NC) President Sushil Koirala died 9 February; NC general convention to elect new party president scheduled 3-6 March.

Protests against new constitution by Madhesi groups continued into fifth month despite differences among agitating four-party United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) on intensifying or scaling back blockade on essential supplies along southern Tarai belt in light of increasing humanitarian toll. Talks continued between mainstream parties and UDMF with latter expressing willingness to agree on three-month framework to resolve constitutional disputes. Rapprochement undermined 21 Jan after three Madhesi protestors killed and nine injured in police firing in Morang district following clashes between UDMF cadres and ruling party UML’s youth wing; 57 total protest-related deaths since demonstrations began Aug 2015. Trust deficit widened after 23 Jan adoption of two constitutional amendments related to constituency delineation and proportional representation of historically marginalised groups; UDMF boycotted parliamentary deliberations, rejected amendments for not redrawing highly contested provincial boundaries in new federal state structure, criticised mainstream parties for unilaterally passing amendments while dialogue still unresolved; announced new phase of protests targeting capital to increase pressure on govt. Post-earthquake reconstruction still stalled despite National Reconstruction Authority 13 Jan unveiling three-month action plan. UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman visited Kathmandu 7-8 Jan, expressed concern over economy, humanitarian situation, reconstruction efforts.

Protests against new constitution by Madhesi groups, disruption of imports across Indian border, and clashes between demonstrators and police continued along southern plains. Protesters 16 Dec attacked President Bidya Bhandari’s motorcade in Dhanusha district. One protester killed in police firing 20 Dec in Rautahat district; at least 50 protest-related deaths since Aug. Veteran Madhesi leader Rajendra Mahato injured in 26 Dec clash with police. Madhesi leaders 5 Dec met Indian FM Sushma Swaraj in New Delhi, urged India to play diplomatic role in resolving crisis. Coalition of Madhesi parties criticised Constitution Amendment Bill tabled 15 Dec for not addressing demands regarding citizenship, proportional inclusion in state bodies, and redrawing of provincial boundaries; intensified  protests beginning 18 Dec; rejected Govt’s 20  Dec “ambiguous” three-point roadmap that included formation of political committee to resolve state restructuring dispute despite Indian Foreign Ministry welcoming govt decision. Amid ongoing criticism of UML-led govt over deteriorating humanitarian situation following April/May earthquakes, eight displaced people living in temporary shelters died as temperatures dropped throughout Dec; Reconstruction Authority Bill  passed  16  Dec  to expedite reconstruction work. Ruling-coalition member  UCPN  (Maoist)  reportedly  dissatisfied  with  PM  Oli’s  24  Dec  cabinet expansion.

Political crisis intensified as protests by Madhesi groups over constitutional provisions continued across southern Tarai plains, surpassing 100 days since start of agitation. Vehicular movement across Indian border remained disrupted; ensuing fuel shortage exacerbated by reported distribution irregularities by national oil company. Deputy PM Kamal Thapa 4 Nov spoke at UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on disruption of supplies by India; Indian delegation expressed concern over lack of political progress and protest-related violence. Four protestors killed in police firing 22 Nov in southern district Saptari, bringing total protest-related deaths since Aug to 49. Demonstrators 14 Nov vandalised ruling party UML’s Parsa district office in Tarai, 20 Nov vandalised ambulance and vehicle carrying medical supplies in Parsa and Morang districts; agitating Madhes-based parties’ rally in Itahari district disrupted by local students 27 Nov. Defence Minister Bhim Rawal 28 Nov claimed Nepal Army could be deployed in Tarai. 18 Nov talks between govt and coalition of Madhes-based parties ended inconclusively; Madhesi parties demand package deal including amendments to new provincial boundaries to ensure demographic majority. Ruling UCPN (Maoist) in discussions with former vice-chairman Mohan Baidya regarding reunification. Hardline CPN Maoist called nationwide strike 29 Nov protesting unofficial Indian blockade.