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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Nepal

K.P. Oli, head of the UML, elected PM 11 Oct following resignation of Sushil Koirala; UML leader Bidya Bhandari elected country’s first female president 28 Oct. Protests across southern Tarai plains by Madhesi and Tharu groups against new constitution entered third month; 16 Oct Human Rights Watch report called for investigations into killings during constitution-related protests. Obstructions at major Indian-border customs checkpoints continued, causing acute fuel shortage and increasing accusations of an unofficial Indian trade embargo. Following informal talks, formal dialogue between govt and Madhes-based parties began 25 Oct; govt agreed to some demands including compensating families of those killed in protests and withdrawing security forces from Tarai districts. Differences persist on federalism; Madhesi parties, seeking to preserve demographic advantage, demand two provinces across Tarai instead of six as currently agreed to among three main parties; govt favour letting future Federal Commission decide province demarcation. New Deputy PM Kamal Thapa met Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj in New Delhi 18 Oct to discuss border situation; Swaraj urged govt to pursue dialogue with dissenting groups. Nepal Oil Corporation reached agreement on petroleum imports 28 Oct with PetroChina to ease fuel scarcity, ending four-decade Indian petroleum monopoly.

Asia

Nepal

Constituent Assembly 16 Sept endorsed new constitution by vote of 507-25 and formally adopted charter 20 Sept, fulfilling milestone 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement commitment. However widespread protests continued across southern Tarai region by plains-based Madhesi and Tharu groups against perceived rollbacks of past assurances of electoral provisions, affirmative action and disagreement over delineation of new provincial boundaries. 45 killed in protests in Tarai since early August — reportedly 35 protesters in police firing and ten police at the hands of protesters. Following unsuccessful attempts to start dialogue, Home Ministry 22 Sept relaxed curfews, PM Sushil Koirala 23 Sept cancelled attendance of UNGA to hold talks, and govt 24 Sept agreed to recall Nepal Army soldiers deployed in southern districts as confidence-building measure. Formal negotiations between govt and Madhes-based parties began 28 Sept. Indian Ministry of External Affairs released statement 21 Sept expressing concern over protest-related violence in Tarai region, called on parties to defuse tensions. Movement of freight vehicles from India into protest-affected southern areas obstructed following new constitution’s promulgation, resulting in fuel shortages and claims of Indian economic blockade. Former PM Baburam Bhattarai resigned from UCPN (Maoist) and from parliament, citing failure of new statute to address Madhesi and Tharu demands.

Asia

Nepal

Six-state federal model agreed 8 Aug between four major parties drew criticism from several constituencies including most plains-based Madhesi parties and groups, plains-based Tharu groups, and other ethnic/indigenous groups, for violating previous agreements and fragmenting regions where they held demographic majorities. Protests triggered in multiple districts including by groups demanding present regional administrative units remain intact; several protesters killed in police firing in separate incidents in the Tarai plains. Seven police and a child killed, over 40 security personnel injured 24 Aug in violent protests in Kailali demanding creation of Tharu-majority state; concerns raised over subsequent deployment of Nepal Army in protest-hit areas, local residents reportedly leaving villages. Over 100 arrested 16 Aug in nationwide strike protesting the deal, called by Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist-led alliance. Several Madhes-based parties called indefinite strike across southern districts beginning 18 Aug; Sadbhavana Party 18 Aug resigned from Constituent Assembly en masse protesting federal model and constitutional draft provisions. Fresh protests erupted 31 Aug in Parsa district, police fired into crowd of protesters, one killed. Three major parties revised federal model 21 Aug to add seventh state, recognising demands of some mid- and far-western groups; deal rejected by Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (Loktantrik), fourth signatory of six-state agreement, for neglecting demands of Tharu community.

Asia

Nepal

Constituent Assembly 7 July endorsed draft constitution; major parties agreed to fast-track drafting process and aim for promulgation by mid-Aug. 8-23 July public opinion collection process truncated from one month to fifteen days, two days only allocated for consultations. Draft constitution widely labelled regressive, criticised for not addressing longstanding demands including delineation of federal provinces, entrenching secularism in preamble, and granting of citizenship by descent through mother. Demonstrations demanding amendments to these and other provisions in several southern Madhesi towns 20-21 July obstructed public consultation programs, dozens injured; police criticised for using excessive force. Right-wing monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Nepal) also launched demonstrations 20 July demanding enshrinement of Hinduism as official state religion. Citing public feedback, major parties 27 July discussed replacing secularism provision—previously enshrined in 2007 Interim Constitution – with “religious freedom” in new constitution, casting further doubt on protection of minority religions. Breakaway faction of Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist launched nationwide strike 24 July against draft constitution and May 2015 India-China trade agreement for allegedly violating Nepal’s territorial sovereignty; vehicles torched, schools shut down, over 200 arrested.

Asia

Nepal

Major political parties 8 June signed historic sixteen-point agreement on long-awaited constitution, which envisions eight federal provinces; hailed as “major milestone” by UNSG Ban, who called on leaders to implement agreement. Supreme Court (SC) 19 June ordered temporary halt to implementation of agreement, saying it violates provisions of interim constitution; parties criticised SC move as judicial intervention. Drafting Committee 29 June endorsed first draft of new constitution to be submitted to Constituent Assembly for deliberation; describes country as “secular, inclusive and multi-ethnic”.

Asia

Nepal

Continuing relief efforts following April earthquake amid renewed international focus on Nepal’s longstanding political impasse and inability to reach consensus on new constitution; four former PMs spoke in parliament 9 May underscoring need for a national govt to cope with country’s challenges. Over 8,500 confirmed to have died in April earthquakes, close to 18,000 injured; another strong earthquake hit 12 May.

Asia

Nepal

Powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck 77km NW of Kathmandu 25 April causing widespread devastation, directly affecting a quarter of population; over 5,500 confirmed dead with numbers expected to increase, 1.4 million reportedly in need of food aid. Disaster struck amid ongoing impasse between Nepal’s political parties on overdue draft constitution; 30-party alliance of opposition parties led by Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and two major Madhesi groups declared three-day nationwide strike 6 April to protest against adoption of constitution by majority vote instead of by consensus, but called strike off next day in response to anger over disruption, violent clashes between protesters and police.

Asia

Nepal

As parties again failed to overcome deadlock on overdue draft constitution, specifically over issue of federalism, 30-party alliance of opposition parties led by Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) announced fresh protests, nationwide strike early April. Constituent Assembly chair Subhash Nemwang extended deadline for agreement on constitution again.

Asia

Nepal

Prospective Constituent Assembly vote on draft constitution, pushed for by ruling parties following failure of political parties to meet 22 Jan deadline for reaching consensus, postponed indefinitely mid-month to allow resumption of negotiations; United Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M) leader Baburam Bhattarai late month said talks will resume following scheduled 28 Feb opposition demonstrations. Govt 10 Feb set up committees to investigate alleged human rights abuses and disappearances during civil war era; Supreme Court 27 Feb rejected amnesty provision in April 2014 bill offering possible amnesty for human rights offenders.

Asia

Nepal

Political parties failed to reach consensus on constitution draft before 22 Jan deadline despite reportedly reaching agreement on several core issues 19 Jan. Scuffles broke out in parliament during Constituent Assembly sessions around deadline as ruling parties tried to push vote on draft; Maoist opposition organised general strike, rallies. Ruling parties 25 Jan tasked committee with resolving contentious issues before vote; Maoists vowed one-month boycott of committee and more protests, insisted on consensus decision.

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