CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Sri Lanka

President suspended parliament for one month amid growing tensions within ruling coalition, as debt crisis, inflation and looming food shortages led to rising popular discontent. President Rajapaksa 12 Dec prorogued parliament until 18 Jan 2022 without giving clear reasons, triggering claims from opposition suspension was designed to prevent publication of reports by parliamentary corruption oversight committees; move comes after parliament 10 Dec approved govt’s budget with two-thirds majority, despite signs of increasing tensions within ruling coalition. Economic hardship deepened. Fitch Ratings 17 Dec became latest credit ratings agency to downgrade country, citing “increased probability of default’’; agency downgraded govt’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’, lowest tier before default. Inflation hit record level of 11%; vegetable prices continued to rise sharply during month, as key food items, especially imports, proved increasingly hard to find and beyond large numbers of citizens’ income, raising concerns about rising malnutrition. Concerns also persisted over size of upcoming rice harvest and future yields on tea, following six-month ban on import of chemical fertiliser. President Rajapaksa 22 Dec replaced chief civil servant in agriculture ministry, one day after he warned publicly of impending food crisis. Sinhalese prisoners in Badulla 17 Dec attacked four Muslim detainees held on suspicion of links to network behind 2019 Easter bombings. In effort to placate concerns among European states about continued use of Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), govt took series of actions. Following green light from attorney general, Puttalam High Court 15 Dec granted bail to Muslim poet Ahnaf Jazeem, detained under PTA for seven months on spurious reading of one of his poems. Colombo High Court 2 Dec acquitted prominent Muslim politician Azath Salley, who had been detained under the PTA, based on edited copy of speech he gave. Court during month gave bail to ten Tamil youth, arrested in May 2021 for publicly commemorating deaths of Tamils during war in violation of court order. Govt expressed outrage following 3 Dec mob lynching of Sinhalese manager of factory in Pakistani town of Sialkot (see Pakistan), but voiced appreciation for PM Imran Kahn’s promised of swift justice.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Economic woes deepened amid food security concerns, while trial of 2019 Easter bombings suspects began. On economic front, country faced soaring food prices as supplies shrunk, raising concern of major food shortages in coming weeks and months; govt’s ban in April on import of chemical fertilisers and pesticides (lifted in late Oct) had triggered warnings of potentially much reduced crop yields this year. After rating agency Moody late Oct downgraded govt’s credit rating, fears persisted over falling currency reserves and govt’s ability to pay billions of dollars of debt due next year; Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa 13 Nov said govt can pay debts on schedule, and one day after unveiled budget proposing major tax hikes and spending cuts in attempt to reduce budget deficit. Opposition party Samagi Jana Balawegaya 16 Nov held its first major COVID-era public rally in capital Colombo in protest at govt economic mismanagement despite police-requested court orders to prevent demonstration on public health grounds. Trial of 25 suspects allegedly involved in 2019 Easter bombings began 23 Nov, but subsequently adjourned until January. Separate murder trial of former Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando and former police chief Pujith Jayasundara for alleged failure to act on early warnings of Easter attack began 23 Nov. Amid outspoken criticism from Catholic leaders in recent months regarding lack of accountability for attacks, police 15-16 Nov questioned Catholic leader Fr Cyril Gamini Fernando following complaint in Oct by State Intelligence Service head Suresh Sallay, who claimed Fernando had falsely accused him of links to those behind attacks. Govt faced more criticism for unrepresentative composition of task force appointed in late Oct, headed by radical Buddhist monk Gnanasara, to implement principle of “One Country, One Law”, with clear focus on regulating Islamic practices and institutions; in response, President’s Office 10 Nov appointed three Tamils, including one woman, and revised task force’s mandate from amending draft laws to “presenting proposals”. Tamils across north and east held public and private “Great Heroes Day” events on 27 Nov to commemorate fighters and civilians killed during civil war, despite aggressive attempts by police and military to prevent gatherings.

Asia

Sri Lanka

President Rajapaksa appointed controversial “nationalistic” legal task force, while efforts toward accountability came under renewed scrutiny, including over Easter bombings events. President Rajapaksa 27 Oct appointed Task Force to draft law instituting principle of “One Country, One Law” to regulate religious and family law, with clear focus on Islamic institutions; headed by Buddhist monk and militant Sinhala nationalist campaigner Galagodaaaththe Gnanasara, whom many accuse of instigating anti-Muslim violence; task force widely criticised across political and religious spectrum as partisan and divisive. Catholic Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith 24 Oct accused Rajapaksa govt of covering up conspiracy behind Easter Sunday 2019 jihadist bombings in order to “protect the interests” of president, called for international assistance in uncovering truth and announced Pope Francis had written to convey his support for cardinal’s efforts. Meanwhile, teachers continued months-long strike calling for salary increases and protesting arrest and harassment of trade union leaders. Farmer protests against govt’s ban on importing chemical fertiliser and pesticides also continued, fuelling concerns over potential food shortages with predicted fall of rice and tea harvests. Following EU visit to monitor govt’s compliance with EU treaty obligations underpinning trade benefits associated with General Scheme of Preferences, European Commission officials 6 Oct urged amendment of Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) act but gave no deadline for changes; PTA permits arrests without warrant and detention without charge for up to 18 months. Previously, EU-Sri Lanka Joint Commission’s Working Group on Governance, Rule of Law and Human Rights 1 Oct announced both parties “agreed to take stock of progress” related to PTA amendment. President Rajapaksa’s office 4 Oct announced “immediate steps” to amend “necessary provisions”. FM Peiris 13 Oct reiterated that govt “rejects the establishment of an external [accountability] mechanism when domestic processes were ongoing”; Attorney General Rajaratnam 13 Oct informed High Court govt was dropping charges against former Naval Commander Karannagoda for alleged abduction, torture and murder of at least 11 Tamil and Muslim men in 2008-2009 – making it one of more than dozen indictments against Rajapaksa family members and former officials dropped since Gotabaya Rajapaksa became president in Nov 2019.

Asia

Sri Lanka

UN Human Rights Council voiced concerns over erosion of rights, while economy continued to face deep strains. UN Human Rights Council 13 Sept began its 48th session where High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet noted “the corrosive impact that militarisation and the lack of accountability continue to have on fundamental rights” in country and urged govt to undertake major reforms, including repealing Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). Statement by “Core Group” nations next day said they were “deeply concerned about current human rights developments, in particular increased limitations being put on civic space”. Report to council by special rapporteur on truth and justice debated 16 Sept concluded “the current administration has shown that it is unwilling or unable to make progress in the effective investigation, prosecution, and sanctioning of serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law”. In response to criticism, FM G.L. Peiris 14 Sept said govt had made progress in domestic processes for national reconciliation and rejected external initiatives that “will polarize our society”. EU team 27 Sept arrived in capital Colombo for ten-day mission to monitor govt’s compliance with terms of EU’s GSP+ trade concessions; meetings included discussions with govt on recent promises to “review” PTA, as repeal of controversial law was condition for Sri Lanka regaining GSP+ status in 2017. State Minister for Prisons Lohan Ratwatte 15 Sept resigned after news emerged he had threatened to kill Tamil prisoners held under PTA during unplanned and drunken visit to Anuradhapura city on 12 Sept. Country continued to face economic hardship. After President Rajapaksa 31 Aug declared state of emergency in response to food shortages, Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa 7 Sept acknowledged “country is facing a serious foreign exchange crisis” as well as growing budget deficits due to huge loss of revenue resulting from COVID-related restrictions. Central Bank Governor W. D. Lakshman 14 Sept resigned and was replaced by Rajapaksa loyalist Ajith Nivard Cabraal, who resigned as state minister of money and capital markets. Govt 17 Sept extended island-wide quarantine and curfew until 1 Oct as numbers of reported cases and deaths remained high during month.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Supreme Court suspended regulations linked to controversial Terrorism Act, while govt faced rising popular protests and spiralling COVID-19 cases. Supreme Court 5 Aug issued interim order suspending application of regulations issued by President Rajapaksa under controversial Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to establish “deradicalisation” programme for alleged religious extremists; ruling follows petitions by journalists and activists who claim regulations violate constitution. Seven UN special mandate holders 9 Aug requested govt withdraw regulations, calling them “contrary to Sri Lanka’s international legal obligations”. Govt 10 Aug indicted 25 individuals suspected of involvement in 2019 Easter bombings; magistrate same day remanded former minister and head of All Ceylon People’s Congress Rishad Bathiudeen, detained under PTA for alleged involvement in Easter attacks. Influential Catholic Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith 13 Aug rejected president’s response to bishops’ request for effective investigations and prosecutions into terror attacks, and called for prosecution of former president Sirisena, now allied with govt, for failure to prevent bombings. Meanwhile, nationwide protests continued throughout month, including farmers contesting president’s chemical fertiliser ban, teachers demanding better pay and students, teachers and trade unions demonstrating against govt-proposed Kothilawala National Defence University bill that critics say marks first step toward end of free public university education. Govt responded with aggressive crackdowns on protesting leaders, including numerous arrests; senior judges, with govt encouragement, reportedly took unprecedented step of instructing magistrates to ban protests on COVID-19 health grounds. Govt 4 Aug postponed scheduled parliament debate of university bill. Facing rapid rise in coronavirus cases, with daily death rate passing 200, and weeks of increasingly urgent calls from health experts for strong action, govt 20 Aug imposed island-wide lockdown. President 30 Aug declared state of emergency and issued price controls on essential items, as the economic and currency crises deepened. Govt made overtures to select civil society leaders; notably, Rajapaksa 3 Aug met Sri Lanka Collective for Consensus. However, longstanding fears of govt plans to restrict NGO freedoms surfaced again as cabinet 10 Aug approved proposal for new unified law for all NGOs, citing concerns about terrorist financing.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Economy remained under great pressure, while authorities used repressive practices to control growing protests. Govt continued to focus on increasingly dire economic situation as prices of staples rose, trade deficit grew, currency reserves fell and concerns persisted over potential international debt default; Money, Capital Markets and Public Enterprise Reforms Minister Ajith Nivard Cabraal 2 July rejected opposition calls for deal with International Monetary Fund to restructure debt. Basil Rajapaksa, brother of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and PM Mahinda Rajapaksa, 8 July sworn in as finance minister, promising new economic policies. Meanwhile, police 6 July announced ban on public gatherings amid growing number of protests by unions, students and farmers. Police 8 July used unusually aggressive measures to end protest outside parliament against controversial Kotelawala Defence University Act that critics say could end free higher education; police same day arrested general secretary of Ceylon Teachers Union and more than dozen trade union and student activists for violating COVID-19 health regulations; suspects sent to military-run COVID-19 quarantine centre despite being granted bail by court; all released 16 July. Former Parliamentary Speaker Karu Jayasuriya 11 July accused govt of “systematic repression” with “aim to eradicate democracy” and 17 July convened almost all opposition parties to chart strategy of resistance against govt practices. Govt 7 July appointed three-judge special court for trial of ex-Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando and ex-police chief Pujith Jayasundara accused of negligence for failing to prevent 2019 Easter bombings. In 12 July letter to President Rajapaksa, Catholic bishops, including Cardinal Malcolm Rogers, criticised “lethargic pace” of investigations into bombings and called on govt to prosecute “main culprits” and investigate evidence of possible larger “conspiracy”. Cabinet 19 July approved legal changes - still to be endorsed by parliament - that would allow Muslim couples to marry under ordinary marriage registration law, rather than Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act, in line with longstanding demand of women activists. COVID-19 case numbers and death rates levelled off during month but latter remained high at 40-50 per day; vaccination programme progressed significantly with substantial new supplies from abroad.

Asia

Sri Lanka

COVID-19 crisis continued to worsen as economy faced growing strains, while EU and UN voiced concerns over govt’s abuse of rule of law. Amid worsening COVID-19 epidemic, govt faced growing accusations of limiting access to coronavirus tests to prevent full knowledge on gravity of health situation and failing to report accurately on death rate, which reached new daily highs during month. Notably, eight members of independent expert panel 8 June called for immediate probe into failings of vaccination programme. Economic concerns persisted as COVID-19 spread among workers in garment and other export industries and Central Bank governor 28 June announced steps to restrict use of dwindling foreign reserves on non-essential imports; energy minister 11 June announced sharp spike in fuel prices, prompting protest in southern town of Ambalangoda 15 June. European Parliament 10 June passed resolution highlighting govt’s abuse of Prevention of Terrorism Act, which permits arrests without warrant and detention without charge for up to 18 months, and failure to adhere to international conventions required to retain EU trade benefits; urged EU Commission to consider withdrawing Sri Lanka’s special trade status; Sri Lanka foreign ministry 14 June rejected allegations of abuse and renewed promise to “revisit provisions” of Terrorism Act. UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 21 June expressed concerns over govt’s continued misuse and expansion of Terrorism Act, policies targeting Tamils and Muslims, and “continuing series” of deaths in police custody. In widely criticised decision, President Rajapaksa 24 June pardoned Duminda Silva, former ruling-party legislator convicted of 2011 murder of political rival; also pardoned 16 Tamils convicted under Terrorism Act. Bar Association of Sri Lanka 10 June raised concerns with inspector general of police about his 7 June directive calling on police to step up social media monitoring. In rare judicial rebuke of govt, Court of Appeal 16 June approved bail of former senior-most police investigator Shani Abeysekera detained in what was widely seen as retribution for investigations into previous alleged abuses by Rajapaksa-led govt.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Amid rapidly worsening COVID-19 crisis, country marked twelfth anniversary of end of civil war while parliament approved controversial govt bill on Colombo megaproject. Authorities prevented public commemorations in northern and eastern provinces to mark 12 years since end of civil war on 18 May; police same day arrested ten Tamil activists under Prevention of Terrorism Act for holding commemoration in eastern Batticaloa district. Well-known memorial to civilian Tamil dead in Mullivaikkal 13 May discovered vandalised while under army control. Tamil MPs, local officials and members of diaspora in Canada, UK and other European countries 18 May also recognised “Tamil Genocide Remembrance Day”, while PM Rajapaksa same day promised parliament that govt would never “betray” “war heroes” who sacrificed their lives to defeat terrorism. Govt next day held 12th National War Heroes’ Day events attended by President Rajapaksa and other govt and military officials. Parliament 20 May approved by nearly two-thirds majority govt’s landmark bill to establish legal and administrative framework for Chinese-built Colombo Port City megaproject, which provides for unprecedented legal autonomy to Port City Commission; opposition and civil society had previously expressed criticisms that project will facilitate money laundering and further increase Chinese influence over Sri Lankan economy and politics. Law 18 May rushed through parliament after speaker same day announced Supreme Court due to assess constitutionality of more than two dozen of bill’s provisions, following numerous petitions; govt immediately introduced amended bill after removing controversial provisions. Meanwhile, country faced rapidly worsening COVID-19 situation as hospital capacity appeared to reach its limit during month, and delays along with shortages in COVID-19 testing limited govt’s ability to track and control disease, fuelling criticism of govt’s handling of crisis. Public and health officials also protested politicised distribution of scarce vaccines.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Country commemorated deadly 2019 Easter attacks as authorities furthered “anti-extremism” agenda; meanwhile, govt bill on Colombo mega project sparked legal challenges. As country marked second anniversary of Islamic State (ISIS)-inspired Easter suicide bombings that killed over 260 people, govt continued to pursue “anti-extremism” agenda. Activists 8 April filed lawsuit challenging constitutionality of new “deradicalisation” regulations introduced in March that allow extended detention without charge. Govt 10 April formally proscribed 11 “extremist” groups, including range of local Salafi groups and Muslim charity funded by two suicide bombers of April 2019 attacks. Attorney general 20 April indicted 16 Muslim men detained without trial for almost two years for their alleged involvement in Dec 2018 vandalism of Buddhist statues in town of Mawanella. Police 24 April arrested Rishad Bathiudeen, Muslim legislator and leader of the All Ceylon Makkal Party, in connection with 2019 bombings. Cabinet 28 April approved ban on burqas and other religious face-coverings on “national security” grounds. Catholic Cardinal and Archbishop of Colombo Malcolm Ranjith 18 April claimed Easter attacks were “politically driven”, and the victims “attacked not by religious extremism, but by a group that exploited it […] to strengthen their political power.” Opposition MPs 20 April alleged govt was covering up evidence indicating contacts between military intelligence officials loyal to President Rajapaksa, then in opposition, and bombers before Easter attacks. PM Rajapaksa 9 April introduced legally unprecedented resolution in Parliament to implement recommendations of presidential commission on “political victimisation” to dismiss ongoing murder, corruption and other criminal cases against Rajapaksa family members and loyalists and to prosecute investigators, prosecutors and witnesses. Meanwhile, govt 8 April introduced bill granting unprecedented legal autonomy to Colombo port city, its multi-billion-dollar flagship economic project financed by Chinese company; more than dozen organisations and opposition parties challenged bill in lawsuits filed at Supreme Court. Former minister and ruling party MP Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe told court on 20 April bill would create “a haven for money laundering” and 15 April criticised project for establishing “Chinese colony”; Rajapakshe alleged President Rajapaksa next day threatened him for his criticisms. 

Asia

Sri Lanka

UN Human Rights Council adopted groundbreaking resolution establishing new accountability process, while govt unveiled new restrictions targeting Muslims. UN Human Rights Council 23 March adopted new resolution on Sri Lanka expressing “deep concern” at “warning signs of a deteriorating human rights situation” and calling on govt to protect religious freedom, review anti-terrorism laws, allow civil society to “operate free from hindrance, surveillance, insecurity and threat of reprisals” and “ensure the prompt, thorough and impartial investigation” of serious rights violations “including for long-standing emblematic cases”. Resolution authorised UN human rights body OHCHR to “collect, consolidate, analyse and preserve information and evidence” in support of “future accountability processes for gross violations of human rights or serious violations of international humanitarian law in Sri Lanka” including through universal jurisdiction cases in individual states. Ahead of vote, in attempt to court support from Muslim-majority states for countering new UN resolution, President Rajapaksa 19 March visited Bangladesh with high-level delegation and made series of phone calls with Indian PM Modi, Egyptian President Sisi and senior officials at Organisation of Islamic Cooperation; India and Japan abstained in council vote while China and Pakistan voted against. Following vote, govt rejected UN resolution and launched public media campaign against those supporting it domestically; President Rajapaksa 27 March declared: “We are not afraid to face the impact of Geneva. It is possible not to succumb to it. We are a free country”. Meanwhile, govt announced new laws targeting Muslims. Notably, defence ministry 5 March said new regulations will require all imported Islamic books to be screened beforehand as part of counter-terrorism measures; Minister of Public Security Sarath Weerasekera 13 March announced that he had signed cabinet paper to ban burqa and nikab face veil and that 1000 madrasas will be closed on national security grounds; MFA 16 March clarified measure would be implemented following public consultations. President Rajapaksa 9 March also signed new regulations under Prevention of Terrorism Act permitting two-year detention without trial for “deradicalisation” of those accused of supporting “violent extremist religious ideology”. Police 16 March arrested prominent Muslim politician Azath Salley under terrorism act.

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