CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Following renewed outbreak of conflict in Rakhine State late Oct, President Thein Sein 16 Nov held joint meeting with Buddhist and Muslim leaders to call for calm; sent letter to UNSG Ban pledging to address contentious issues, 20 Nov requested Indonesia’s help to resolve violence. Aung San Suu Kyi 7 Nov issued joint statement with ethnic minority parties calling on govt to deploy more troops in Rakhine State and address their concerns; 15 Nov blamed Myanmar govt and Bangladesh for Rohingya humanitarian crisis, said statelessness of Rohingya Muslims must be examined. Authorities early-month reportedly started operation to verify citizenship of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. Court 21 Nov sentenced religious leader Dr Htun Aung to 12 years in jail for role in Rakhine State violence. U.S. president Obama visited country 19 Nov, first ever visit by sitting U.S. president; country also hosted PMs of Norway, Denmark, Sweden, New Zealand, plus EU president Barroso. Thein Sein 2 Nov signed into law new foreign investment law. Ahead of Obama’s visit, govt announced release of over 500 prisoners, including 66 alleged political prisoners. Deadly clashes continued between govt and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Hpakant jade mining area of Kachin State. Govt-KIA fighting reignited early-Nov in N Shan State; 8 soldiers reportedly killed. Thousands gathered at Monywa copper mine in NW 19-20 Nov to resume protests against seizure of land by company jointly owned by Myanmar military conglomerate and Chinese company; dozens of monks and protesters injured in violent crackdown by security forces 29 Nov.
Renewed violence broke out involving Muslim and Buddhist communities in Rakhine State 21 Oct; official figures report death toll from latest outbreak of inter-communal tensions, mostly involving Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine, to be at least 89, with 136 injured, 5,351 houses torched; more than 30,000 officially displaced. Authorities 24 Oct imposed curfew in at least 2 towns, President Thein Sein 25 Oct ordered more security forces. Govt 30 Oct rejected ASEAN proposal to hold tripartite talks with UN to contain Rakhine violence. Thousands of protesters gathered 30 Oct in Ramree Island to demand extra security measures, separation of Muslims from Buddhist neighbourhoods; 1 killed after police allegedly fired on demonstrators. Hundreds of monks early Oct protested in Yangon and Sittwe against anti-Buddhist unrest in Rakhine State and Bangladesh. Thein Sein 15 Oct withdrew permission for Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to open liaison office in Yangon following Buddhist demonstrations. Deadly clashes continued between govt and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Hpakant jade mining area of Kachin State. Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), govt representatives met 30 Oct on Sino-Myanmar border for latest round of peace talks; KIO sent low-level delegation. Tensions within Karen National Union (KNU) as group 3 Oct sacked 3 senior members; reinstated them 29 Oct (one posthumously). Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 8 Oct declared National League for Democracy’s intention to try to amend constitution to allow her to run for president in 2015; Thein Sein said will accept her as president if elected. U.S. President Obama 5 Oct signed bill lifting restrictions on international financial institutions lending to Myanmar. U.S. delegation including high-ranking military visited mid-Oct for rights dialogue with leadership, military; senior U.S. official said country on “right track” ending military ties with DPRK.
Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 16 Sept visited U.S. for first time since her release; President Thein Sein 24 Sept made first U.S. visit. U.S. 19 Sept removed Thein Sein and lower house speaker Shwe Mann from sanctions list, 26 Sept announced easing of ban on imports from Myanmar; EU 17 Sept announced plans to lift trade barriers. Parliament 7 Sept approved 11 new ministers, auditor-general following early Sept cabinet reshuffle. Constitution Tribunal judges 6 Sept resigned after parliament voted to impeach them for incompetence. Govt 17 Sept announced release of 514 prisoners, including 88 political prisoners. Organisation of Islamic Cooperation delegation toured Rakhine State, 12 Sept signed agreement with govt to provide aid. In Kachin state clashes between govt troops, Kachin Independence Army (KIA) continued; Kachin National Organisation (KNO) 23 Sept urged UN “direct action” in open letter to UNSG Ban. 5,000 gathered 5-6 Sept at Monywa copper mine in NW to protest seizure of land by company; mine jointly owned by Myanmar military conglomerate and Chinese company.
Renewed clashes in Rakhine State between Rohingya Muslim, Rakhine Buddhist communities killed at least 13. President Thein Sein 10 Aug invited Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to investigate violence toward Rohingya Muslims, 17 Aug announced commission to examine situation, move welcomed by UNSG Ban. Court 24 Aug convicted 3 UN local staff for alleged involvement in June Rakhine State violence, all later pardoned. 6,000 reported displaced late Aug fleeing govt-Kachin Independence Army clashes near Hpakant Township. Navy chief Nyan Tun sworn in 15 Aug as VP; no official explanation given for withdrawal of Myint Swe’s candidature, unofficial reports say it relates to child’s foreign citizenship; Thein Sein 27 Aug announced first stage of significant cabinet reshuffle. Govt 20 Aug announced end to “pre- publication” press censorship, content restrictions remain; 28 Aug announced removal of 2,082 names from immigration blacklist. Govt 8 Aug permitted rallies commemorating anniversary of 1988 pro-democracy protests that were violently suppressed by govt. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), Thein Sein met 12, 22 Aug; parliament 7 Aug appointed ASSK chairperson of Rule of Law and Stability Committee. First meeting of new central peace committee held 12 Aug; govt 26 Aug signed ceasefire agreement with Pa-O National Liberation Organization rebel group.
Resignation of VP Tin Aung Myint Oo 4 July officially announced; retired general Myint Swe nominated 10 July as replacement, but not confirmed due to possible constitutional issues. President Thein Sein 11 July claimed military no longer involved in policy-formation, 18 July discussed govt policies with opposition Group of Friends of Democracy Parties leaders. During Cambodia visit, Thein Sein 13 July met U.S. Sec of State Clinton, discussed ending economic isolation following 11 July announcement of end to U.S. investment ban; sanctions easing condemned by rights groups. UNHCR head Guterres 12 July met with Thein Sein, rejected proposal to resettle some Rohingyas in UNHCR camps or third country to resolve ethnic tensions. UN Special Rapporteur Quintana 30 July–1 Aug visited Rakhine state to investigate June ethnic violence. Sword-wielding mob 25 July murdered NLD member in Magwe; 2 arrested, 1 allegedly USDP member. Authorities 6-7 July reportedly detained 23 political activists prior to 50th anniversary commemorations of military crackdown on students, all later released. Thein Sein 3 July authorised release of 20 political prisoners. Censorship board 31 July indefinitely suspended 2 journals for violating media restrictions.
Ethnic tensions flared in Rakhine State, following late May rape, murder of Buddhist woman; revenge attack 3 June killed 10 Rohingya Muslims, followed by rioting, killing of at least 60 Buddhists, Muslims; UN estimated 90,000 displaced; govt 10 June declared state of emergency; U.S. embassy 19 June praised measured govt response to violence. Govt, Kachin Independence Army held two more rounds of informal talks 1, 20 June as fighting continued; govt 21 June overruled law banning Kachin Independence Organisation. Govt troops 16 June set alight Shan State Army-South base; rebel leaders said attack threatened May peace agreement. President Thein Sein 19 June announced “second wave of reforms” focusing on economic liberalisation. Press Scrutiny and Registration Department head Tint Swe late May announced end to media censorship from end June. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi met govt leaders across Europe during 14-25 June visit. Swiss govt 14 June announced ending of sanctions except arms embargo.
VP Tin Aung Myint Oo 3 May reportedly resigned on health grounds, govt yet to officially confirm. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 2 May debuted in parliament, given passport for first time in 24 years ahead of May, June travel to Thailand, UK, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland. At least 31 killed early May in govt clashes with Kachin Independence Army (KIA); KIA rebels 15 May appealed to UNSG for UN observers to monitor conflict zone. President Thein Sein 3 May named as chairman of new peace team to negotiate with armed groups. Govt, Shan State Army rebels 19 May agreed to enforce ceasefire, eradicate drug production in area; armed clashes occurred 23 May. Rare protests in Yangon, Mandalay, other cities late May over electricity shortages, govt appealed for understanding. G8 leaders 19 May praised ongoing political reforms. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton 17 May announced easing of investment ban, named new ambassador, called for release of remaining political prisoners. Following first official visit for 9 years, Amnesty International report released 24 May noted major human rights improvements in past year, but expressed concern over continued violations. During 14 May visit by South Korean President Lee, President Thein Sein pledged to abide by UNSC resolutions on DPRK’s nuclear program, halt weapons purchases from DPRK. MPs 10 May visited European Parliament, met with European Council President van Rompuy, EU High Representative Ashton.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD opposition party, won 43 of 45 available seats in 1 April by-elections; NLD temporarily boycotted resumption of parliament in dispute over language in swearing-in oath. During 3 day visit UNSG Ban 30 April addressed parliament, praised reforms. Diplomatic visits continued throughout month including by UK PM Cameron, Italian FM Terzi, EU High Representative Ashton. Western govts announced easing of sanctions, arms embargoes to remain; Karen National Union (KNU) 8 April cautioned against lifting sanctions too quickly. Japanese govt pledged to cancel $3.72bn debt, resume aid, loans during President Thein Sein’s 20-25 April Tokyo visit. KNU, govt 6 April signed 13-point agreement on peace process; KNU 7 April met with Thein Sein, 8 April with Suu Kyi; no progress on Kachin Independence Organisation talks, Thein Sein 30 April named new negotiating team; armed clashes continued.
As campaigning for 1 April parliamentary byelections intensified, U.S., EU, Canada, Japan and Australia agreed to send observers following invitation by President Thein Sein. Govt 7 March agreed to ceasefire with Karenni National Progressive Party armed group, 8-9 March held inconclusive peace talks with Kachin Independence Army amid ongoing but reduced armed clashes. Phado Man Nyein Maung, senior rebel Karen National Union political figure, jailed 13 March for treason; pardoned 19 March to enable his participation in peace talks. President Thein Sein 1 March gave major speech to legislature, signalled strong commitment to democratic reforms. Foreign dignitaries visited throughout month including Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird, New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully; U.S. Special Envoy for Myanmar Derek Mitchell.
Govt 20 Feb lifted restrictions on election campaigning that prevented 3 planned National League for Democracy 14 Feb rallies after party publicly complained it was being denied use of venues. EU development commissioner Andris Piebalgs visited 12-14 Feb, announced €150mn in new aid over 2 years. Govt 21 Feb promised to “seriously consider” allowing Southeast Asian observers for 1 April by-elections. Burma Civil society delegation of political activists met U.S. Sec State Clinton 8 Feb during historic visit to U.S., discussed political prisoners, women’s rights, ethnic minorities with U.S. officials.
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