Significant progress in reform process as govt 12 Jan signed first ceasefire with main Karen rebel group, ending over 60 years of conflict; 13 Jan released 651 prisoners under new presidential pardon, some 300 political prisoners freed including most prominent political dissidents. Release followed 2 Jan amnesty for 900 mostly non-political prisoners. Amid continuing clashes in Kachin State, govt 18 Jan held inconclusive talks with Kachin Independence Army near Chinese border. Following prisoner release U.S. announced restoration of full diplomatic ties, exchange of ambassadors. EU 23 Jan agreed to suspend visa bans on leading politicians on basis of “remarkable” political reform; Australia 9 Jan announced easing of sanctions, removed some individuals from asset freeze list. Diplomatic visits included UK and French FMs, U.S. policy coordinator Derek Mitchell and U.S. envoy on human trafficking. Election Commission 30 Dec announced by-elections to be held 1 Apr; Aung San Suu Kyi 18 Jan submitted application to contest seat, 29 Jan started campaign tour.

Milestone visit by U.S. Sec State Clinton 30 Nov-2 Dec signaled U.S. ready to begin process of normalising relations; Clinton announced modest policy changes including inviting FM to Washington, U.S. support for multilateral assistance. Thai PM Yingluck 20 Dec offered support to Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) for upcoming by-elections during historic meeting in Yangon. Other diplomatic visits included Belarus and Bangladesh PMs, Japan, Indonesian and Singapore FMs. President Thein Sein 3 Dec signed law allowing peaceful demonstrations. Govt also announced magazines covering economic, business affairs no longer need to be submitted for censor approval. Political activists held event at Yangon monastery marking 20th anniversary of ASSK’s Nobel Peace Prize. Govt 2 Dec signed ceasefire agreement with Shan State Army (South). Thein Sein 10 Dec ordered military halt offensive actions, troop movements in Kachin State, granted UN humanitarian access to conflict areas in Kachin. Hostilities reported in northern Shan state between army and Kachin Independence Army. Following visit to Kachin Myanmar National Human Rights Commission made recommendations including increased assistance to IDPs. Authorities 16 Dec jailed Karen rebel leader Mahn Nyein Maung for 17 years for “unlawful association”.

Major political development marked by return of Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) to political process, decision by ASSK and other NLD leaders to contest seats in upcoming by-elections; 18 Nov confirmation that Myanmar to chair ASEAN in 2014 also reflection of positive changes in recent months, amid hopes it will drive further reform. Flurry of diplomatic visits to Myanmar, including U.S. Myanmar envoy Derek Mitchell in 3rd visit 2-4 Nov, UN Special Envoy Vijay Nambiar, Norwegian and UK development ministers, German Deputy FM. U.S. Sec State Clinton commenced visit to Myanmar 30 Nov, first such visit for over 50 years; UNSG Ban announced intention to visit as soon as possible. Chinese VP Xi Jinping 28 Nov called for increased military ties. President Thein Sein 4 Nov signed amendments to political party registration law, addressing concerns of opposition NLD. NLD 18 Nov announced intention to register as legal political party, submitted application 25 Nov. Parliament 24 Nov passed bill allowing peaceful protests. Situation surrounding ethnic conflict remains tense, however some progress in president’s peace initiative. Karen armed group Kloh Htoo Baw 3 Nov announced it had signed ceasefire with govt. Series of meetings in Thailand between presidential envoy and several armed groups; Shan State Army-South 19 Nov said agreement on ceasefire reached, said envoy conveyed commitment to holding national conference on political solutions to ethnic divisions. Some other armed groups agreed to sign ceasefires in near future. Fighting continued in Kachin areas between KIO, govt forces. KIO delegation met with presidential envoy, held further talks in China 29 Nov.

Authorities 12 Oct released more than 6,000 prisoners, including 200-300 political prisoners, in 2nd such release since new govt took office; indicated more to follow. Aung San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) NLD said all political prisoners should have been freed. ASSK 28 Oct met with govt liaison minister Aung Kyi for 4th time in recent months; along with other NLD leaders has indicated willingness to consider registering party to contest upcoming by-elections conditional on changes to political party law, currently being discussed in legislature. Govt 10 Oct enacted new labour law granting workers right to form trade unions and strike, ending 50 years of restrictions on freedom of association. During late-Oct visit U.S. Special Rep for Burma Derek Mitchell met senior officials, ASSK. Thai PM Yingluck made first visit to Myanmar 5 Oct. President Thein Sein mid-Oct visited India, countries agreed to expand trade, co-operation in oil and gas exploration, India pledged $500mn credit for infrastructure projects. Fighting escalated mid-Oct in parts of Kachin State, resulting in casualties on both sides, further displacement; also reports of rights abuses.

Continued signs of improvements in political freedoms, human rights, economic reforms, reflected in positive political developments, increased international engagement. Govt 5 Sept formed National Human Rights Commission, made up mainly of retired govt officials, former diplomats, including some members from ethnic, religious minorities. Myanmar journal 5 Sept published uncensored article by Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), first to be published domestically for 23 years. ASSK 15 Sept told supporters she believes “now is a situation where changes are likely to take place”. Authorities removed blocks on international news websites. President Thein Sein 30 Sept announced suspension of controversial hydroelectric dam construction in Kachin state. Newly-confirmed U.S. Special Representative for Burma Derek Mitchell 9-14 Sept visited Myanmar, met ministers, house speakers, ASSK and other opposition members, civil society. FM Wunna Maung Lwin 29 Sept held talks in Washington with senior U.S. officials. Following 2-day visit EU aid chief Kristalina Georgieva indicated she had obtained commitments on improving humanitarian access. Government 8 Sept signed preliminary peace agreements with Wa and Mongla armed groups. Situation in other ethnic areas remained tense; renewed clashes 23 Sept between govt troops and Kachin Independence Army in northern Shan State.

Continued signs of improving relationship between govt and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK): ASSK 19 Aug for first time met new President Thein Sein, said “happy and satisfied” with meeting; 14 Aug visited Bago in first political trip since 2010 release from house arrest. During late-month visit UN rights envoy 24 Aug met ASSK, 25 Aug urged govt to release all political prisoners. Lower house of parliament 26 Aug called for general amnesty for such prisoners. Thein Sein continued economic, small-scale political reforms, but yet to address release of political prisoners. Govt 18 Aug offered peace talks with all ethnic rebel groups through respective local executives; negotiations ongoing with Kachin Independence Organisation. Local Shan NGOs 10 Aug reported some 30,000 displaced by clashes in NE since March, alleged rape, abuses by army. State media 5 Aug claimed ethnic Kachin rebels killed 7 Chinese workers in Moemauk; rebels claimed those killed were soldiers.

Clashes between Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and army lessened during month, but tensions remained high: KIA refused to sign new ceasefire agreement unless accompanied by political dialogue. KIA 15 July released documents allegedly proving atrocities against KIA, Kachin civilians by army over past decade. Army 19 July reportedly launched attacks against Shan State Army North, former cease-fire group. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 28 July called on govt to implement ceasefire, open peace talks with ethnic groups. President Thein Sein during month implemented package of socio-economic reforms, including reducing export tariffs, increasing pensions. ASSK 3 July made “private” visit to Bagan, first trip outside Yangon since Nov 2010 release from house arrest. ASSK 25 July met Labour Minister Aung Kyi, first meeting with official from new govt; Aung Kyi said meeting “first step” to future dialogue.

Worst clashes in country since 2009 as govt and Kachin ceasefire group fought from mid-month, with serious chance of escalation. Clashes erupted after Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) rejected govt 11 June deadline to withdraw from strategic base near hydroelectric dams under construction by Chinese firms, followed army’s 9 June alleged torture and execution of KIO official. Fighting later spread to Kachin areas of Shan state; rights groups reported at least 20 killed, tens of thousands displaced. 4 bombs 24 June exploded in Naypyitaw, Mandalay, Pyinoolwin cities, wounding 2; state media accused 3 ethnic Shans. 3 wounded in 11 June Naypyitaw market bomb blast, perpetrators unknown. Govt 11 June eased strict censorship of some media publications, but not news titles. Indian FM Krishna visited Myanmar 20 June, first visit by Indian official since new govt took office.

Govt 16 May announced 1-year cut from all prison terms: some 14,600 released, but only 47 political prisoners; rights groups criticised as too limited. Govt 6 May made formal request to chair ASEAN in 2014, ASEAN yet to confirm; rights groups urged against. Following mid-month visit, UNSG Chief of Staff Vijay Nambiar said “encouraging signs” from new govt, but urged it to implement its promises of development, limiting corruption. 2 killed in 18 May train bombing outside Naypyidaw; police blamed Karen National Union militants. Sporadic clashes between ethnic armies and govt troops continued in Karen and southern Shan states; hundreds displaced.

Govt 31 March confirmed ex-ruler Than Shwe had relinquished all formal power during 30 March transition to nominally civilian govt, but unclear what extent of Than Shwe’s future influence will be. In 30 March inaugural speech, new President Thein Sein set out govt’s policy for coming terms, called for cooperation with “good-hearted” elements of opposition; said will work to end high-level corruption in govt. Jia Qinglin, fourth highest-ranking Chinese govt official, visited Myanmar 5 Apr. EU 12 Apr renewed Myanmar sanctions, but suspended visa ban on FM, civilian members of new govt, to encourage dialogue. U.S. President Obama 15 Apr appointed Pentagon official Derek Mitchell as first ever Myanmar special envoy, subject to Senate confirmation; opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi welcomed nomination.