CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Junta, or State Peace and Development Council, officially disbanded 30 March as it handed over power to new govt and President Thein Sein; new govt, parliament nominally civilian but overwhelmingly dominated by junta proxy party USDP. Main parliamentary opposition parties 11 March called on EU to lift all sanctions, comes in context of annual EU review of Myanmar policy. NLD, banned party of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, had supported continuation of sanctions, and on 27 March called for “urgent dialogue” with junta. Junta during month for first time made state budget publically available: 19.5% of budget spent on military, lower than previous estimates; NLD 4 March criticised new “Special Funds Law” allowing army chief to spend state money without parliamentary oversight.
Parliament 4 Feb elected ex-PM Thein Sein new President, 2 high-ranking ex-military officials as VPs; all 3 members of junta proxy party USDP. U.S. State Dept 16 Feb voiced concern for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s safety after threats against her published in state media for her support of sanctions. Suu Kyi’s NLD party 7 Feb called on West to maintain sanctions.
New parliament convened 31 Jan, will elect new govt over coming weeks; MPs 1 Feb said junta leader Than Shwe not among presidential candidates, suggesting he will no longer be country’s official ruler. Junta 21 Jan named 388 officers to fill 25% of seats allocated to military in upper and lower house and regional, state parliaments. ASEAN FMs 16 Jan called for international sanctions on Myanmar to be lifted, followed earlier similar joint request from main ethnic parties; NDF, DP parties echoed call 20 Jan. EU 19 Jan announced internal review of effectiveness of sanctions, economic impact on population. NGO Physicians for Human Rights 19 Jan reported “widespread human rights abuses” by military in Chin state. Clashes between army and DKBA reportedly intensified in Karen state during month. Supreme Court 28 Jan upheld dissolution of Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD party.
UN human rights expert on Myanmar 13 Dec called on govt to release estimated 2,200 remaining political prisoners; followed 8 Dec death of imprisoned monk, 145th prisoner to die in captivity since 1988. State media 8 Dec reported turnout in Nov election 77%; junta leader Than Shwe 2 Dec hailed widely-criticised election as “successful”, said Burma on course to complete “roadmap to democracy” in 2011. Clashes between army and Karen ceasefire groups continued during month: 1 officer reportedly killed in Phaluu early month; hundreds displaced across border into Thailand.
Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi released from house arrest 12 Nov: called for unity among pro-democracy groups, said open to talks with junta, willing to moderate her opposition to sanctions. 7 Nov elections criticised as fraudulent amidst widespread reports of manipulation, including advance voting, intimidation, fraud during count. Junta proxy party USDP won 80% of seats in Upper and Lower Houses, but claimed marginally less votes in ethnic regions than in heart- land. Junta 26 Nov introduced laws restricting free speech and banning protest in parliament. 3 killed in 8 Nov post-election clashes between army and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) around Mywaddy town; more than 20,000 fled across Thai border, but most returned within days. Further 1,000 displaced after renewed fighting 29 Nov.
Junta 18 Oct said foreign journalists, observers will be banned from monitoring 7 Nov elections. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi 5 Oct sued junta before Supreme Court over its dissolution of NLD party ahead of elections. Suu Kyi 13 Oct said she will not vote in elections. UN human rights envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana 21 Oct called election process “deeply flawed”, urged govt to release some 2,100 political prisoners before vote; UNSG Ban urged junta to free Suu Kyi ahead of polls, said junta’s refusal to cooperate with international community “deeply frustrating”. USDP, proxy party for junta, widely criticised for breaching campaign laws, including pressuring civil servants for their votes, using state funds for campaigning, intimidating voters. Tensions increased in Kachin State: govt 19 Oct arrested 3 Kachin Independence Army (KIA) members; KIA same day surrounded military camp in north.
State media announced voting in 7 Nov election to be cancelled in 6 out of 1,163 constituencies, all of them in insurgency-plagued ethnic areas in East, including 4 Wa areas, 2 regional legislative seats in Kachin and KIO areas. Move criticised as excluding millions from poll already seen as undemocratic; media also reported decision to refuse to register Kachin independent candidates. State media 14 Sept reported main opposition NLD officially dissolved for failing to register on time; 9 other parties also banned. Junta 30 Sept announced will release NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi 13 Nov. Junta leader Than Shwe met with Chinese President Hu Jintao 8 Sept during state visit to China.
Govt 13 Aug set 7 Nov date for general election. At least 12 senior junta officials stepped down 28 Aug to stand in elections; unclear if junta no.3 Thura Shwe Mann among them, but state media 31 Aug denied reports that junta leader Than Shwe had left post. Govt-run Election Commission 19 Aug announced stringent poll restrictions: candidates must seek permission to campaign 1 week in advance; speeches that “tarnish” military rule forbidden. Pro-democracy UDP party head Phyo Min Thein resigned 5 Aug, said election rules too biased towards junta. UWSA, largest armed ethnic group, 2 Aug said it will ban any “election activities” in areas under its control in northeast. U.S. 18 Aug said will back creation of UN-led commission to investigate war crimes by junta. 2 killed in 6 Aug blast in Myawaddy, Karen militants suspected.
National Democratic Front (NDF), splinter group from officially disbanded opposition NLD, 9 July received govt permission to form new party; NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi criticised NDF’s decision to take part in upcoming election, including use of NLD straw hat symbol for campaigning. ASEAN FMs 20 July applied strong pressure on Myanmar to hold “free, fair and inclusive” elections. Influential govt-controlled social organisation USDA disbanded 6 July, transferred assets to army’s political party USDP; rights groups highly critical. U.S. Senate 22 July voted to extend by 1 year ban on imports from Myanmar. Win Htein, former aide to Suu Kyi, released from prison 15 July after completing 14-year sentence. India, Myanmar signed new security pact 27 July following 4-day official visit to India of junta leader Than Shwe.
Election preparations continued despite no announcement of date; election commission issued directive banning marching and chanting during rallies. Reports several registered political parties unable to afford campaign materials seeking allies to meet election costs. U.S. Asst Sec State Schwartz 10 June expressed concern upcoming polls would change little for refugees in camps along Thai border. U.S. Senator Webb 3 June cancelled planned visit after early month reports govt working with N Korea to develop nuclear program; govt 11 June rejected reports as “politically motivated”. Karen National Liberation Army 10 June claimed it had killed at least 12 govt soldiers in Karen state. NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi 19 June celebrated 65th birthday under house arrest.
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