CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
UN envoy Gambari visited 2-8 November; criticised by information minister over continuation of international sanctions following earlier visit. UN resident coordinator expelled 2 November for calling on government to listen to dissenting voices. UN human rights envoy allowed first visit since 2003, 11-15 November. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi held first talks with other members of NLD opposition in 3 years 9 November; expressed optimism over future of reconciliation dialogue with junta after further discussion with junta representative Aung Kyi. In face of Myanmar’s objection, invitation to Gambari to brief ASEAN heads of government in Singapore withdrawn at last minute; Myanmar nevertheless dominated media coverage of summit.
Ruling junta continued to suppress dissent in crackdown that began 26 September and saw possibly hundreds killed, some 3,000 arrested (official death toll 10). Yangon curfew lifted 20 October but troops redeployed 26 October, arrests continue. Monks returned 31 October to Pakokku streets, where demonstrations accelerated early September. UNSC issued first-ever statement on situation in Myanmar 11 October: “strongly deplored” violent repression of demonstrators and called for prisoners’ release. Statement followed Yangon visit by UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari, who returns to Myanmar early November after visiting neighbouring countries. EU, U.S. expanded targeted sanctions, while Chinese, Russian and Indian FMs, in 24 October trilateral, urged junta to cooperate with Gambari mission. After refusing talks with junta 9 October, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi met Gen. Aung Kyi 25 October; outcome of talks unknown. Junta announced formation of 54-member committee on new constitution 19 October as part of “road map” to democracy; no opposition figures included.
Government responded with military force 26-27 September to peaceful protests that had swelled to scores of thousands marching on Yangon streets. Military fired over heads of monks in Pakkoku 5 September, provoking thousands more to join and delaying government response. Junta declared protests illegal 24 September and threatened crackdown; security services flooded Yangon streets 26 September, blocking access to shrines and monasteries. Over 10 reported killed after forces fired on crowds 27 September, number may be higher; scores arrested. UN sent envoy Ibrahim Gambari: met with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi; and in Naypyidaw 1 October seeking meeting with junta leader Than Shwe. U.S., EU vowed expanded targeted sanctions. Major neighbours urged to apply influence: ASEAN strongest in expressing “revulsion”; China urged restraint, and diplomatically active, as crackdown loomed; India, after signing major gas deal 24 September, expressed hope for peaceful dialogue and more inclusion.
Government raised fuel prices by as much as 500 percent 15 August, prompting series of small protests in and around Yangon. 13 dissidents from “88 Generation Students” group arrested 22 August; wave of arrests followed as pro-government vigilantes dispatched to suppress protests, prompting international condemnation.
Final session of Constitutional Convention to draw up constitutional guidelines opened 18 July; expected to run for 6 weeks. U.S. Senate extended sanctions against Myanmar for further year on basis of poor human rights record 24 July. Philippines appealed to government for release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi by ASEAN November summit.
Ambush attacks on buses in Karen and Karenni states 21-22 June killed 27. Attacks came amid reports of increase in clashes between Karen and Shan State armies; state media said ethnic guerrilla forces responsible. National Convention due to resume 18 July to finalise new constitution. In first such meeting in years, U.S. Asst. Sec. State Eric John met with junta in Beijing, pushed for release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. ICRC law violations by Myanmar authorities.
Ruling junta signed deal with Russia to build small nuclear research reactor. Peace talks between Shan State Army and government 22 May failed to produce any concrete statement. Despite pressure from ASEAN, EU, U.S. and UNHCHR, Myanmar renewed detention order on democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi for another year 26 May. U.S. earlier renewed sanctions, accusing regime of becoming “more brutal”.
Continued Burmese offensive on Karen National Union (KNU) forces killed over 17, displaced hundreds over Thai border. Army reportedly seized 4 major rebel bases. In first application of February agreements with International Labour Organisation, 2 state officials convicted of using forced labour sentenced to 6 months' prison. UN humanitarian affairs deputy Wahlstrom met senior officials in attempt to resolve growing humanitarian access crisis. Myanmar and North Korea signed agreement 26 April to normalise relations during visit by North Korean delegation, while India announced increased military aid and cooperation.
Several fatal clashes in month between military and Karen National Union rebels, including major fighting 10 March that killed 14, injured 300. Karen peace demonstration 18 March urged end to violence. Preliminary peace talks held 15 March between Chin National Front and government. Ethnic Kukis along Indian border observed 6 general strike to protest alleged military abduction of 400 locals 13 March. ICRC announced re-closure of offices in Mon and Shan, citing increased government restrictions.
Army launched offensive in northwest against Naga and Assam rebels operating from bases within Myanmar (see India). Government announced ceasefire talks with Chin National Front. At least 8 arrested after rare anti- government demonstration over Yangon living conditions 22 February. Reports of growing disagreement amongst regime’s leaders over democratic reforms sparked further speculation of power struggle following ill health of General Than Shwe. Military promised completion of draft constitution by year end.
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