Clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military in Rakhine state continued amid protests over deaths of AA suspects in military custody. AA used new tactic of attacking navy vessels in Rakhine state three times since late-June, including 19 July rocket attack on two ships on river in Myebon Township which killed army captain and two navy personnel. Local media 5 July reported govt had charged in absentia four AA leaders under Counter Terrorism Law for organising and participating in militant group, alongside charging numerous villagers for harbouring AA members. At govt’s request, Singapore police 10 July arrested and deported seven politically-prominent Rakhine individuals, including brother of AA leader, on charges of using country as platform to organise support for anti-govt violence by raising funds and seeking diaspora support for AA; Myanmar police arrested all seven on arrival in Myanmar or shortly after. Amid demonstrations in Rakhine over deaths of AA suspects in military custody, military 12 July announced formation of investigative team to probe incidents; since early 2019 some fifteen civilians held on suspicion of AA ties reportedly died in military custody or shortly after release. Lull in fighting in Kachin and Shan states continued following military’s late-June extension of unilateral ceasefire until 31 Aug. Amid monsoons causing heavy flooding since early July in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh and leading to at least five deaths and deterioration of living conditions, Rohingya Muslims continued attempts to cross Bay of Bengal to Malaysia; over 60 people from Bangladesh camps and displacement camps around Sittwe in Rakhine state found on coast of southern Maungdaw township 7 July after boat difficulties. Prosecutor of International Criminal Court Fatou Bensouda 4 July requested court’s judges authorise an investigation into alleged crimes against humanity, namely deportation, other inhumane acts and persecution committed against Rohingya Muslims (in which at least one element occurred in Bangladesh – a State Party to the Rome Statute) during the period since 9 October 2016.

Fighting between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military continued in Rakhine and southern Chin states. Clashes in Minbya township, Rakhine, 2-3 June caused civilian casualties including seven killed and seven injured when mortars struck monastery sheltering civilians. UN 10 June reported some 1,000 villagers displaced to Minbya town; further 1,000 reportedly fled villages in southern Chin state due to clashes. Military early June confirmed at least five officers, including two battalion commanders, killed during fighting between late May and early June, but rejected AA claims that over 1,100 soldiers had been killed in 2019. Govt 2o June ordered telecommunication providers to shut down internet services in nine townships in Rakhine and Chin states the following day, claiming internet was used to “coordinate illegal activities”. Lull in fighting in Kachin and Shan states continued amid military’s unilateral ceasefire, and May-agreed fragile ceasefire between two competing Shan armed groups – Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) – continued to hold. Nationwide ethnic peace process remained moribund; Karen National Union, one of largest armed groups, continued to suspend participation in formal process. Despite arrival of monsoon and dangerous sea conditions, Rohingya Muslims increased attempts to cross Bay of Bengal from Bangladesh to Malaysia, including more than 60 Rohingya found in boat beached on island in southern Thailand 11 June due to engine issues; Bangladesh govt said hundreds found trying to leave were returned to camps. Govt tensions with Bangladesh increased over issue of repatriation of Rohingya refugees: after Myanmar Minister for State Counsellor’s Office 31 May said Bangladesh “not cooperating” with bilateral processes, Bangladesh PM Hasina 9 June said Myanmar “in no way” wants repatriation; Bangladeshi FM Momen 12 June criticised Naypyitaw for spreading “blatant lies”, failing “to keep its promises” and urged international community to increase pressure on Myanmar for repatriation. Court 18 June began trial in absentia of hardline monk U Wirathu on charges of sedition relating to disparaging comments he made about State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi.

Significant clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military in Rakhine state continued and spread further south. AA claimed to have clashed 33 times with military 1-12 May, including 12 May ambush of military convoy near Western Command headquarters in Ann township. Tensions in Rakhine increased following deaths of civilians in military custody, after army rounded up some 275 Rakhine men and boys aged 15-50 in Buthidaung township (north) 30 April, and 2 May shot dead six and wounded eight. Local villagers disputed military’s claim that men were attempting to riot; military announced internal investigation into incident and released some of those detained, but 83 still under interrogation or facing prosecution for links to AA; UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed concern for their safety. NGO Amnesty International 29 May released report detailing Myanmar military “war crimes” in Rakhine since Jan, also finding evidence of AA abuses against civilians.  Malaysian police 13 May said they had disrupted Islamic State (ISIS) cell plotting attacks in Malaysia and other countries, with two Rohingya among those arrested, one reportedly a supporter of militant group Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) intending to target Myanmar embassy and targets in Rakhine state. Following talks between govt’s peace team and Northern Alliance of ethnic armed groups, military 30 April declared two-month extension to unilateral ceasefire in Kachin and Shan States originally announced in Dec 2018. UN Fact-Finding Mission 14 May urged international community to cut off all financial and other support to military in effort to hold army accountable for “atrocities against many of the ethnic groups living within borders of Myanmar”. Govt 7 May released on humanitarian grounds two Reuters journalists, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, jailed in 2017 for breaking Official Secrets Act in their reporting on massacre of Rohingya men, as part of presidential amnesty; civil society groups welcomed decision but warned of ongoing media restrictions. EU late April announced extension of sanctions until 30 April 2020, including arms embargo as well as visa bans and asset freezes for fourteen members of police and military associated with human rights violations.

Regular, serious clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military continued, particularly in Mrauk-U, Buthidaung and Kyauktaw townships, Rakhine state. AA ambush in Buthidaung 5 April reportedly resulted in deaths of Myanmar army captain and some 20 soldiers he was leading; AA 9 April overran police compound and nearby artillery base in Mrauk-U, reportedly killing at least a dozen police and abducting family members. Military reportedly suffered heavy losses while retaking bases and called in airstrikes by fighter jets; civilian casualties reported. Rohingya villagers also caught in crossfire; at least seven and possibly many more killed when they came under helicopter fire in southern Buthidaung 3 April, believed to be case of mistaken identity. Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army militant group also ambushed police vehicle 22 April; no deaths reported. Rakhine State govt 1 April imposed overnight curfew in urban and rural areas across five townships (Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, and Minbya). Ahead of anticipated arrival of monsoon, small number of Rohingya continued efforts to cross Bay of Bengal to Malaysia before sea conditions deteriorate. UN Sec-Gen António Guterres 2 April appointed U.S. citizen Nicholas Koumjian to head UN-established Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), which is expected to start work by end of 2019 to collect evidence and prepare prosecutorial files “on the most serious international crimes committed in Myanmar since 2011”. President Win Myint issued amnesties for more than 17,000 prisoners to mark Myanmar new year; only four of estimated 364 political prisoners included. Supreme Court 23 April upheld sentence of two Reuters journalists, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, jailed for breaking Official Secrets Act in case that has attracted widespread international condemnation and concern over free speech.

Arakan Army (AA) ramped up attacks across broad area of Rakhine State and southern Chin State, despite troop surge and vows by military and govt to crush insurgency. Over a dozen soldiers reportedly killed in clashes with AA in Paletwa township, southern Chin State 7 March; AA 9 March attacked police station in Ponnagyun, western Rakhine State, killing nine officers; same day reportedly occupied military tactical operations base in southern Chin State, capturing eleven prisoners and significant equipment; clashed on streets of Mrauk U town in west of Rakhine State 18 March. Six people killed in Buthidaung as army and AA clashed 21 March, shortly after peace talks in capital Naypyitaw with eight northern armed groups including AA. Court in Sittwe 19 March sentenced prominent Rakhine political leader and a co-accused to 20 years prison for high treason, in move seen as likely to fuel tensions. UN and local aid groups report nearly 20,000 civilians temporarily displaced in Rakhine State due to fighting in recent weeks; also reported that 95,000 people affected by govt restrictions on humanitarian aid to area. Govt 14 March announced new fourteen-member committee led by deputy upper house speaker (an ethnic Rakhine) tasked with bringing stability to Rakhine State and facilitating dialogue between govt, lawmakers and local people. Myanmar military 18 March announced appointment of three-member military “investigation court” to look into Aug 2017 ARSA attacks and security response. Bangladesh continued to move ahead with preparations to relocate some Rohingya refugees to camp on Bhasan Char, silt island 30km offshore. International Criminal Court prosecutor’s office visited Bangladesh 6-11 March as part of its preliminary examination of situation to determine whether to move ahead with formal investigation into alleged crimes against Rohingya.

Deadly clashes between military and Rakhine and Rohingya armed groups continued in overlapping areas of northern Rakhine State, with both communities caught in crossfire, with fears conflict will escalate ahead of monsoon season in April/May. Rakhine State govt late-Jan granted permission to police and military to carry out household search operations in seven townships to search for members of Arakan Army; authorities have charged dozens of young men with unlawful association for having contacts with group. Intense fighting between military and Arakan Army in southern Chin State’s remote Paletwa township early Feb caused several hundred Rakhine and Chin villagers to flee across border to Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts, prompting Dhaka to send letter to Myanmar 5 Feb expressing concern over security situation and possible new exodus. Bangladesh FM told UN Security Council 28 Feb that it cannot accommodate any more refugees from Myanmar. Attempted IED attack on military convoy in Ann township 4 Feb, some distance from Arakan Army’s normal area of operations, prompted concerns over possible expansion of attacks to other parts of Rakhine State. Govt statements on destroying Arakan Army, and reports and photos of Rakhine civilian casualties, seen as likely to further alienate many Rakhine and harden their support for group. Indications continued that Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army militant group also becoming more active, with several small attacks in Maungdaw area in Jan and Feb bearing hallmarks of group. With ethnic peace process moribund, four Ethnic Armed Organisations constituting Northern Alliance – Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Organisation, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army – said they offered military a ceasefire during meeting with govt’s National Reconciliation and Peace Centre in China 25 Feb. Parliament 19 Feb formed joint committee to amend 2008 military-drafted constitution ahead of 2020 elections, despite opposition from military MPs; committee began work 25 Feb; military has veto on any amendments.

Deadly attacks by ethnic Rakhine insurgent group Arakan Army (AA) prompted fears of escalating violence in Rakhine State, further complicating prospects for improved security and making Rohingya refugee repatriation even more unlikely. AA 4 Jan launched series of coordinated attacks on four Border Guard Police posts in Buthidaung township in northern Rakhine State on Myanmar’s Independence Day, killing thirteen police and injuring nine. Military regained control of posts later same day and launched major clearance operations to dislodge AA, including using large number of infantry troops; over 5,000 people displaced. AA, which operates both in north (Kachin and Shan states) and along western border (northern Rakhine and southern Chin states), also blamed for 1 Jan roadside bomb attack on Rakhine Chief Minister’s convoy near Mrauk-U, no injuries. Previously, deadly clashes between AA and Myanmar military had been intensifying since late Nov across several townships in northern Rakhine State and southern Chin State. Rohingya militant group ARSA believed to be responsible for ambush on Border Guard Police vehicle that injured six officers 16 Jan; also believed to be responsible for 17 Dec attacks in Maungdaw township, northern Rakhine. These would be first attacks by group since Jan 2018. Unilateral four-month ceasefire in Kachin and Shan State announced by military 21 Dec largely held, however some fighting continued in north, including between rival Shan armed groups in northern Shan State, causing several thousand villagers to flee. UN’s budget committee late Dec approved $28mn in funding for independent mechanism to prepare case files to standard required for any future criminal prosecution of individuals responsible for international crimes against Rohingya. Yangon High Court 11 Jan rejected appeal by two imprisoned Reuters journalists. Parliament 29 Jan approved ruling National League for Democracy party proposal to establish committee on constitutional amendment, against wishes of military; however, military has veto on changes to the charter, so none can be forced through.

Tensions rose in northern Rakhine state, while ethnic conflict continued despite military’s unilateral ceasefire in Shan and Kachin states. In Rakhine state, discovery of bullet-ridden body of a policeman missing since being ambushed in Maungdaw township, and killing of two Buddhist men, prompted launch of military “clearance operations”; perpetrators unknown. Fears continued among Rohingya refugees in camps Bangladesh following Dhaka’s abortive attempt to repatriate almost 500 refugee families back to Rakhine state, compounded by fears over possible change in Bangladesh policy following its elections 30 Dec; Rohingya continued attempts to make dangerous boat trip across Bay of Bengal from camps in Bangladesh and from Rakhine state. International pressure on govt continued: U.S. House of Representatives 13 Dec passed resolution declaring military campaign against Rohingya a genocide, adding to growing momentum in EU and U.S. for new round of sanctions. EU 10 Dec decided to move ahead with more targeted sanctions on seven military and border guard officers; bloc scheduled to decide in Jan whether to formally begin process for revoking Myanmar’s trade preferences, amid ongoing concern over impact on hundreds of thousands of workers in garment industry. U.S. decided late-Nov to move ahead with sanctions against Myanmar related to trafficking in persons, requiring U.S. representatives to vote against any new support to govt by international financial institutions and placing significant restrictions on U.S. aid. Conflict between ethnic armed groups in Shan state continued amid fears it will further deteriorate in coming months, including between competing Shan factions. In surprise move, military 21 Dec announced four-month unilateral ceasefire against ethnic armed groups in Shan and Kachin states. Rakhine state not included in ceasefire, and month saw continuation of series of clashes there and in adjacent southern Chin state between Myanmar military and Arakan Army; military 6 Dec acknowledged several officers had been killed.

Concerns continued over possible forced repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh, while ethnic peace process appeared to enter fragile stage ahead of dry season with spike in fighting and all sides losing confidence in the current peace process. Fighting among ethnic armed organisations spiked in Shan state, specifically between Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and Shan State Army North (SSA-N), and between RCSS and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA); two largest armed groups’ suspension of participation in ethnic peace process (Karen National Union late Oct and RCSS 2 Nov) dealt significant blow. Following 30 Oct agreement between Myanmar and Bangladesh to proceed with limited repatriation of Rohingya refugees, planned return of some 2,260 scheduled to begin 15 Nov did not proceed after no one was willing to return; Bangladesh stated it will not proceed with repatriations until after its elections 30 Dec (see Bangladesh). UN and aid organisations had strongly criticised plan. Several reports emerged of refugees, fearful of forced returns, resuming dangerous boat journeys across Bay of Bengal, possibly aided by organised smuggling operations. On sidelines of ASEAN summit 11-15 Nov, Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad again criticised State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and govt’s oppression of Rohingya; summit outcome statement 15 Nov stated need for accountability and creation of conditions in Rakhine state conducive for refugee returns. In 14 Nov meeting with Suu Kyi, U.S. VP Mike Pence called for progress on accountability for violence against Rohingya and for pardon of two Reuters journalists jailed in 2017. Govt criticised UN General Assembly’s 16 Nov resolution which endorsed UN Fact-Finding Mission’s report and establishment of Independent Mechanism to prepare prosecutorial files. With possibility of end to EU’s Everything But Arms preferential trade scheme and pursuant uncertainty over future of garment industry reportedly having serious effect on business and investor sentiment, EU delegation visited early Nov to assess human rights environment.

Chair of UN-appointed Fact Finding Mission Marzuki Darusman 24 Oct briefed UN Security Council on Sept final report into rights violations in Rakhine State and other parts of Myanmar, which gave further details to back up its findings of crimes against humanity, war crimes, and possible genocide by Myanmar military, and called for removal of military leadership, restructuring of institution and end to its political role; report also rejected general economic sanctions. Darusman said thousands of Rohingya still fleeing “ongoing genocide”. Myanmar and Bangladesh officials 30 Oct agreed to start repatriation of refugees mid-Nov. EU 5 Oct announced it is considering revoking Myanmar’s access to “Everything But Arms” preferential trade scheme, which can be withdrawn in case of “serious and systematic violation” of human and labour rights; campaign groups criticised move which could seriously affect garment industry employing some 450,000 people, mostly young women from poor rural families, calling instead for expansion of targeted sanctions on individuals including Commander-in-Chief. At UN Human Rights Council late Sept, members approved resolution establishing body to consolidate evidence of crimes against Rohingya into case files linked to specific perpetrators, to pave way for future international prosecutions. Australia 23 Oct imposed sanctions on five senior military officials, aligning with U.S. and EU. Govt and representatives of ten non-State armed groups met in summit in Naypyitaw 15-16 Oct, third anniversary of signing of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement; no real progress in overcoming main issues deadlocking peace process, including military demands that armed groups accept principle of non-secession before further dialogue on federalism and security sector reform. Conflict in Kachin and Northern Shan states still eased due to monsoon season and summit, although clashes starting to increase in Northern Shan.