International criticism of govt’s response to Rohingya crisis and treatment of jailed journalists continued, as did sporadic clashes between ethnic armed groups and military in north. Yangon court 3 Sept sentenced two local Reuters journalists to seven years’ prison with hard labour for violating Official Secrets Act, despite credible evidence that police had set them up and prosecution failing to make convincing case; journalists had been investigating killings of ten Rohingya by security forces and local villagers at time of their arrest in Dec 2017; case widely seen internationally as miscarriage of justice and bellwether for Myanmar’s declining press freedom. Speaking at World Economic Forum event in Vietnam 13 Sept, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi backed court’s action; also acknowledged that situation in Rakhine state “could have been handled better” and took responsibility for “political aspect” but declined to criticise what she termed “military aspect”. International Criminal Court 6 Sept ruled that it had jurisdiction over alleged forced deportation of Rohingya from Myanmar to Bangladesh, even though Myanmar is not a state party, since part of the alleged crime occurred on territory of a state party (Bangladesh). Myanmar govt “resolutely rejected” ruling, calling it “the result of faulty procedure”, “manifest bad faith”, and “of dubious legal merit”. UN continues to express frustration at its lack of access to northern Rakhine state, despite MoU agreed by govt in May; on 12 Sept began two-week assessment in 23 villages in area selected by govt. In Rakhine State, tensions continued between authorities and Rakhine Buddhist majority; Sittwe court 10 Sept decided to confirm high treason charges, which carry life imprisonment, against Rakhine political leader and former lawmaker Dr. Aye Maung. Armed clashes involving ethnic groups remain relatively limited, in part due to monsoon; sporadic fighting occurred in northern Shan State early Sept between troops of National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)-signatory Restoration Council of Shan State and non-signatory Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also in northern hills of Kayin State between military and Fifth Brigade of Karen National Union, an NCA signatory.

UN fact-finding mission 27 Aug issued report calling for investigation and prosecution of Myanmar military leaders for genocide against Rohingya and war crimes and crimes against humanity against minorities in Rakhine, Kachin and Shan states; said military were “killing indiscriminately, gang-raping women, assaulting children and burning entire villages”; called for referral of case to International Criminal Court (ICC). Report also criticised State Councillor Aung San Suu Kyi for not acting to stem or prevent events, found civilian govt “contributed to the commission of atrocity crimes”. Govt rejected report and questioned body’s impartiality and sincerity. Facebook, long criticised for providing platform to incite hatred and facilitate violence against Rohingya, immediately removed eighteen accounts and 52 pages associated with Myanmar military and its commander-in-chief, depriving him of his main channel of communications with Myanmar people. UN Security Council held open session on situation in Myanmar 28 Aug, addressed by Secretary-General Guterres; while there were many strong statements, Council remains deadlocked on stronger action due to opposition from China and Russia. Office of the State Counsellor 9 Aug stated it has declined to engage in any way with ICC on question of whether it has jurisdiction over possible crime of deportation of Rohingya from Myanmar (a non-State Party) to Bangladesh. Chair of Commission of Enquiry 16 Aug stated that Commission would not “point fingers” and that seeking accountability was “quarrelling … not looking for peace”, dealing major blow to body’s international credibility. Govt’s Advisory Board on Rakhine crisis prematurely dissolved 16 Aug after submitting hasty final report. U.S. Treasury 17 Aug announced sanctions on four members of Myanmar military and two units, for serious human rights abuses in Rakhine, Kachin and Shan states. Bangladesh FM visited Myanmar for talks with senior officials 10 Aug, during which they reaffirmed commitment to early repatriation of Rohingya refugees and agreed to establish hotline to facilitate cooperation. UNICEF 23 Aug warned of potential “lost generation” of Rohingya children lacking access to education in camps in Bangladesh.

Amid continued occasional clashes between military and ethnic armed groups in Kachin and North Shan states, third “Panglong-21” Union Peace Conference was held in Naypyitaw 11-16 July. For first time, all ethnic armed groups attended, including those without ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and commander in chief both struck slightly more conciliatory tone, but did not offer any major new concessions; conference outcome seen as not particularly substantive, no discussion of security sector and constitutional change. Govt reaffirmed intention to complete peace process by 2020 elections. Outgoing UN High Commissioner Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein gave strongly worded update on Rohingya human rights situation at UN Human Rights Council in Geneva 4 July, stating that, “people are still fleeing persecution in Rakhine”; member states expressed increased focus on accountability measures. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and World Bank President Jim Kim visited Bangladesh early July, including Rohingya camps; Guterres called for greater funding to support Rohingya and host communities, and for Myanmar to create conditions suitable for return. Bangladesh home minister 11 July said that Bangladesh and UN had completed process of formally registering Rohingya refugees, aimed at facilitating repatriation, registration of children born in camps ongoing. Following fact-finding mission to camps, UN investigators 19 July reported continued refugee influx, with violence and persecution ongoing. Leaked confidential memorandum of understanding between govt and UN on humanitarian and development assistance to northern Rakhine 29 June prompted criticism over lack of consultation with Rohingya refugees; failure to recognise the Rohingya identity; and denial of basic rights for Rohingya residents or returnees, including citizenship. Govt 30 July named two local and two international members of commission of inquiry into allegations of rights abuses in Rakhine state, which was announced in late May. Court 9 July decided to formally charge two Reuters journalists under Official Secrets Act over their reporting on massacre of Rohingya villagers perpetrated by security forces and local people; decision criticised by U.S., EU, and others.

Conflict in Kachin and Shan states eased somewhat due to onset of monsoon. Data compiled by UN humanitarian agency 1 June showed over 60,000 people temporarily displaced by fighting in Kachin and Shan states between Jan 2017 and May 2018, with most subsequently returning to their areas of origin; 103,000 people remaining in camps in Shan and Kachin states as result of conflict that resumed in 2011. Concerns over conditions of Rohingya refugees in camps in Bangladesh grew with beginning of seasonal heavy rains, which caused flooding, landslides and logistical challenges, and several fatalities from mudslides. UN refugee agency said some 200,000 out of 720,000 refugees “at risk” need to be relocated to safer areas. Still no refugee returns through official system, however small number of Rohingya reported to be returning informally to Rakhine state. Govt 6 June signed memorandum of understanding with UN refugee and development agencies on cooperation on repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh. President’s office 31 May announced that govt would establish three-member Independent Commission of Enquiry to investigate alleged human rights violations in northern Rakhine state, commission to include an international personality and assisted by national and international legal and technical experts. International Criminal Court (ICC) began discussions on possible investigation into alleged deportation of Rohingya to Bangladesh, gave Myanmar 27 July deadline to provide observations on the legal and factual aspects of the case for jurisdiction. UN Special Envoy for Myanmar Christine Burgener visited 12-22 June, met with state counsellor and commander-in-chief, visited Rakhine; then travelled to Thailand, China, Bangladesh. European Council 25 June decided to impose sanctions on seven Myanmar military officials over rights violations against Rohingya. Facebook 7 June announced it would ban several “hardline” monks and designated radical race and religion protection group, Ma Ba Tha, as a “hate organization.”

Armed conflict in north continued to escalate, with clashes between military and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) in Kachin state displacing over 7,000 civilians since early April. In northern Shan state, nineteen people killed including twelve civilians and 27 injured in clash in key border trading town Muse 12 May; fighting followed attack by Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on police and allied militia positions. China 14 May demanded end to fighting, noting that clashes had killed two Chinese nationals and prompted 300 people to flee into China. Clashes also escalated between TNLA and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) in state early May, displacing some 600 in Namtu township. Early and late May also saw small-scale deadly clashes between Arakan Army and Tatmadaw troops in southern Chin state. Peace process continued to inch toward next Panglong-21 peace conference, although date yet to be fixed. International scrutiny of Rohingya crisis continued: Organisation of Islamic Cooperation FMs meeting in Bangladesh 5-6 May pushed for accountability and political action; Myanmar govt 9 May criticised meeting’s outcome statement, same day lodged complaint about construction by Bangladesh border police of security posts within agreed no-construction zone near border line. Following late April visit to Bangladesh and Myanmar, UN Security Council 9 May issued press statement noting its members “were struck by the scale of the humanitarian crisis”, remain “gravely concerned”, urging govt to create conditions conducive to safe, voluntary and dignified return of Rohingya, implement Rakhine Advisory Commission recommendations, and called for accountability for perpetrators of violence. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi 1 May said her govt “is pleased to be working in partnership with the UN” including on repatriation, “believes that this is the appropriate time” for UN refugee agency involvement in Rakhine, but no substantive follow-through yet. Amnesty International 22 May reported evidence that Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) had killed scores of Hindu civilians after launching attacks on security posts in Rakhine state Aug 2017; ARSA denied.

In north east, clashes escalated between military and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) across several townships in Kachin State. KIO 6 April attacked Myanmar military base in Hpakant township, reportedly killing several soldiers. Govt forces 11 April attacked KIO’s Laiza HQ and other bases in major new offensive including ground and air strikes. Military reportedly deployed some 2,000 troops as well as aircraft. Some 4,000 civilians reportedly displaced by late April, particularly around Tanai township; UN reported 10,000 displaced since Jan, amid growing concern over humanitarian situation. As repatriation of some 900,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar remained stalled, govt delegation made first visit to Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh 11 April; refugees presented them with list of conditions for their return including restitution, restoration of citizenship and rights, and international security presence. UN Security Council discussed Rohingya crisis in context of annual debate on conflict-related sexual violence 16 April, with Myanmar military listed as perpetrator for first time. Security Council visited Bangladesh and Myanmar 29 April-1 May to review progress in implementing its Nov 2017 Presidential Statement. Ahead of visit, UN secretary-general appointed Christine Schraner Burgener, current Swiss ambassador to Germany, as special envoy on Myanmar. Two boats carrying Rohingya refugees believed to have departed from Sittwe, Rakhine State headed to Malaysia and Indonesia during month, first known Rohingya smuggling vessels to cross Bay of Bengal in over a year. Military 10 April reported seven soldiers including four officers sentenced to ten years’ prison for killing of Rohingyas in Inn Din village in Sept 2017. Court 11 April rejected motion from defence to dismiss case against two Reuters journalists investigating case. EU late April extended and strengthened arms embargo against Myanmar and started preparing individual sanctions against army officials. International Criminal Court prosecutor 9 April asked court to rule on whether it has jurisdiction over deportations of Rohingya from Myanmar to Bangladesh as possible crime against humanity.

At UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva early March, UN human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein 7 March said he strongly suspected “acts of genocide” may have taken place against Rohingya in northern Rakhine since Aug 2017 and called for body to prepare prosecutorial files to facilitate criminal prosecutions; 9 March called for allegations of atrocities to be referred to International Criminal Court. Report of UN Special Rapporteur Yanghee Lee 9 March called for international efforts to focus on accountability for individuals and govt, said events in Rakhine bore hallmarks of genocide. Fact-finding Mission presented interim report 12 March, noted it had “hundreds” of accounts pointing to “crimes under international law” for which it will “attribute responsibility where it is due”. Amnesty International report 12 March highlighted evolving situation in northern Rakhine, with deserted villages being bulldozed (including some that were not burned), new road, electrical and security infrastructure being rolled out, and beginnings of resettlement of non-Muslims, making return of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to villages of origin more unlikely. As repatriation of refugees remained stalled, Bangladesh’s foreign ministry 1 March said it summoned Myanmar ambassador to call for “immediate pullback of Myanmar security forces along with military assets” from border zone where thousands of Rohingya were sheltering; Myanmar removed its heavy weapons and sides agreed to carry out periodic coordinated patrols of border. In Kachin state, govt forces clashed with Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) troops in Tanai and Putao townships. In northern Shan state, govt forces clashed with Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Namtu Township; and TNLA and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) clashed in Namtu, Kyaukme and Namhsan townships, displacing more than 800 villagers; two people killed in bomb blast by unknown group in Lashio 21 Feb. In northern Kayin state, govt forces and Karen National Union (KNU) clashed in Hpapun township. In Tanintharyi region (south), New Mon State Party (NMSP) and KNU clashed early March in dispute over illegal logging. President U Htin Kyaw resigned, replaced by U Win Myint, previously speaker of House of Representatives.

Return of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh remained stalled despite bilateral agreement on procedures; number of Rohingya refugees who have fled from Rakhine state to Bangladesh now stands at 688,000, with small numbers continuing to cross. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi 13 Feb told UN Security Council conditions “not yet conducive to voluntary repatriation” with causes of their flight not yet addressed, no substantive progress on addressing deepening exclusion and denial of rights rooted in lack of citizenship. Reuters 8 Feb released report that detained journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo had been working on at time of their Dec arrest: provides detailed reconstruction of extrajudicial execution of ten Rohingya villagers by soldiers, police and ethnic Rakhine villagers, and their burial in mass grave. Report prompted renewed calls from U.S. and UN for independent investigation into events in northern Rakhine. Govt spokesperson 11 Feb stated action would be taken against ten members of security forces, six villagers in connection with killings. Associated Press (AP) 1 Feb reported it had conducted detailed interviews with Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh and identified five previously unreported massacres of Rohingya civilians in days after 25 Aug whose bodies had been buried by Myanmar soldiers in mass graves. Govt 2 Feb rejected claims; Rakhine state govt said it was planning to sue AP. Authorities 9 Feb charged prominent Rakhine figures Aye Maung and Wai Hin Aung, both arrested in Jan on charges of unlawful association and incitement, with high treason; sporadic protests across Rakhine state against their prosecution. Three small bombs exploded near govt buildings in state capital Sittwe 24 Feb; no fatalities. Canada announced sanctions 16 Feb against senior Myanmar officer for role in Rohingya crackdown. U.S. Senate committee unanimously passed sanctions bill on Myanmar 7 Feb. EU Foreign Affairs Council 26 Feb called for targeted restrictive measures against senior military officers and strengthening of existing arms embargo. Clashes continued between govt and Kachin Independence Organisation and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, while peace process remained moribund, despite signing of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement by two additional groups 13 Feb.

Deadly crackdown on Buddhist Rakhine protesters in Rakhine state further exacerbated tensions and complicated political situation, while attempts to begin repatriation of Rohingya refugees continued to face obstacles. Police 16 Jan fired live rounds on Buddhist Rakhine anti-govt demonstrators outside Mrauk-U town in Rakhine state, leaving at least seven demonstrators dead and several more seriously injured. Arakan Army armed group condemned crackdown and threatened to take action against police who fired on crowd. Observers fear incident creates further obstacles to repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh, could hinder govt’s ability to push through unpopular recommendations of Kofi Annan advisory commission that would improve Rohingya rights. Govt 18 Jan arrested prominent Rakhine political leader MP Aye Maung for unlawful association, further inflaming local sentiment. First meeting of Bangladesh-Myanmar Joint Working Committee for repatriation 15 Jan agreed practical arrangements for some 688,000 Rohingya refugees, to commence 23 Jan with up to 1,500 returnees per week, and be completed “preferably within two years”. Rights groups and UN continued to voice concern over conditions for return, lack of guarantees for safety; with no refugees having volunteered to return, Bangladesh 22 Jan announced indefinite delay in repatriation (see also Bangladesh). Humanitarian access to northern Rakhine continues to be heavily restricted. U.S. diplomat Bill Richardson 24 Jan announced resignation from govt’s international advisory panel on Rohingya crisis following trip to country and heated meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, calling panel “whitewash” of crisis; govt rejected his concerns, claimed he had “personal agenda”. Military 10 Jan released findings of internal investigation into mass grave in Maungdaw township, finding that ten Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) suspects had been detained by military unit, killed by soldiers and villagers and buried in mass grave 2 Sep 2017; indicated those responsible would be prosecuted. ARSA militants ambushed army vehicle in northern Maungdaw township 5 Jan, followed by reported firefight with soldiers. Clashes between govt forces and ethnic armed groups continued in Kachin state and northern Shan state in north east, particularly involving govt air power and heavy artillery around Kachin Independence Organisation’s Laiza headquarters.

Médecins Sans Frontières survey of Bangladesh camps holding Myanmar Rohingya refugees 14 Dec estimated over 11,000 people died in northern Rakhine in initial month following attacks 25 Aug; 8,170 deaths due to violence, mostly gunshots, including 1,247 children under five. International Organisation for Migration 17 Dec estimated number of Rohingya arrivals in Bangladesh since 25 Aug at 655,000. Human Rights Watch 18 Dec issued analysis of new satellite imagery showing burning of buildings had continued in 40 Rohingya villages from Oct to 2 Dec. President 8 Dec appointed a new advisory board on Rakhine state, comprising five international and five local personalities; said it hopes to convene meeting of group with govt Committee for Implementation of the Recommendations on Rakhine state in Jan. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, addressing special session of UN Human Rights Council 5 Dec, stated he could not rule out presence of “elements of genocide” in govt response to Aug attacks, called for UN General Assembly to establish “new impartial and independent mechanism… to assist individual criminal investigations of those responsible”. In BBC interview Hussein warned situation could get “much worse”. United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) armed group umbrella organisation 11 Dec requested meetings with Aung San Suu Kyi and Commander-in-Chief to unblock stalled peace negotiations; next peace conference now planned end-Jan/Feb. Kachin Independence Organisation armed group reported clashes with govt forces in Tanai (Kachin state) throughout Nov and attacks on positions near Laiza HQ in Dec. Yangon police 12 Dec arrested two Reuters journalists reportedly writing story on military abuses in Rakhine state; pair charged under Official Secrets Act for possession of internal military documents, prompting international expressions of concern over press freedom. Free Expression Myanmar NGO released report 11 Dec warning that another law, on criminal defamation, was being increasingly used to stifle dissent.