Govt continued to resist concessions on key issues of international concern over Rohingya crisis, including humanitarian access, despite UN Security Council scrutiny and diplomatic pressure exerted at regional summits and Asia-Europe foreign ministers’ meeting in Naypyitaw 20-21 Nov. UN Security Council 6 Nov agreed Presidential Statement strongly condemning violence and displacement and expressing alarm at humanitarian situation; Myanmar representative rejected statement. UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten 22 Nov said alleged atrocities by military against Rohingya women and girls may constitute war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. U.S. Sec State Tillerson 22 Nov called military operation against Rohingya “ethnic cleansing”, said U.S. will pursue possible targeted sanctions against individuals responsible. IOM 25 Nov estimated number of arrivals in Bangladesh since 25 Aug at 624,000. Myanmar and Bangladesh 23 Nov signed repatriation agreement; rights groups criticised deal for lacking clear provisions, and any repatriation is likely a distant prospect. Govt continues to rule out involvement of UN refugee agency in repatriation. Suu Kyi 2 Nov made her first trip to Rakhine state since taking power, meeting Rakhine and Rohingya communities. Military 13 Nov released results of internal investigation into its conduct during “clearance operations” in northern Rakhine since 25 Aug: denied allegations of rape, killing by soldiers, stated “not a single shot was fired” on civilians. Tens of thousands marched through Yangon 29 Oct in support of military. Sermon delivered by prominent monk Sitagu to military officers in Kayin state 30 Oct, in which he appeared to provide religious justification for mass killing of non-Buddhists, prompted considerable alarm internationally and by some in Myanmar in subsequent days. Pope Francis made first-ever papal visit to Myanmar 27-30 Nov meeting govt, military leaders, gave Mass for 150,000 from Catholic community; spoke of need for unity and respect for all, but did not refer directly to Rakhine crisis or use word “Rohingya”. Some 330 people reportedly fled fighting between military, Arakan Army in Paletwa, southern Chin state since 1 Nov.

Rohingya refugee exodus from northern Rakhine state to Bangladesh continued, with some 607,000 estimated to have crossed border between 25 Aug and 28 Oct. Military operations reportedly mostly ended; insecurity and restrictions on movement and humanitarian access, plus lack of means of survival fuelled second wave of refugees, mainly from southern Buthidaung township. Govt took diplomats on tour of northern Rakhine 2 and 10 Oct; first group reported dire humanitarian need, called on authorities to fully investigate allegations of human rights violations (including by granting access to UN Fact Finding Mission) and allow unimpeded humanitarian access; encouraged govt to enable “voluntary, dignified and safe” return of refugees. Myanmar and Bangladesh 24 Oct agreed to set up “working group” by 30 Nov to discuss refugee repatriation; they disagreed during month on UN role and return of longstanding refugees. UN 3 Oct issued revised response plan to assist 1.2 million people in Bangladesh (refugees and host communities); donor countries pledged $344mn at 23 Oct conference. Majority of Myanmar population continue to support govt/military approach to crisis. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi 12 Oct gave speech to nation stating commitment to address concerns of international community and announcing establishment of body to support repatriation, resettlement, rehabilitation and development in Rakhine. EU 16 Oct decided to suspend visits by high-level Myanmar military officers to Europe and review defence cooperation, but no formal sanctions. U.S. 23 Oct announced restriction on military assistance to units/officers involved in violence against Rohingya, considering further measures. Office of UN human rights chief 11 Oct released mission report accusing Myanmar security forces and Rakhine Buddhist militia of brutal, well-organised and systematic attacks against Rohingya, with intent to drive population out of Myanmar and prevent their return. Amnesty International 18 Oct accused Myanmar’s security forces of crimes against humanity in northern Rakhine state. Office of Commander in Chief 13 Oct announced internal military investigation into whether troops followed orders and code of conduct during “clearance operations” following Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army’s 25 Aug attacks.

Following late Aug attacks by Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA, also known as Harakah al-Yaqin), violent and disproportionate military response targeting Rohingya villagers in Muslim-majority northern Rakhine state continued, including systematic burnings of villages by security forces and Rakhine Buddhist vigilantes, abuses and killings. UN reported over 500,000 Rohingya – over two thirds of area’s Rohingya population – had fled to Bangladesh by late Sept, creating one of fastest-growing refugee crises since Second World War; tens of thousands more internally displaced, Rohingya and members of other groups. Govt continued to deny UN and international NGO humanitarian access to northern Rakhine, refused visas to UN Fact Finding Mission. UN human rights chief 11 Sept condemned “textbook example of ethnic cleansing”. Addressing open UN Security Council session 28 Sept, UN Secretary-General Guterres called for end to military operation and warned of impact of crisis on regional stability; Myanmar national security advisor denied accusations of ethnic cleansing and genocide. Govt rejected ARSA’s 10 Sept call for “humanitarian pause” ceasefire; ARSA 14 Sept issued statement denying links with al-Qaeda, Islamic State (ISIS), Lashkar-e-Taiba (Pakistan) “or any transnational terrorist group”, warned against their involvement in Arakan conflict. Aung San Suu Kyi 19 Sept gave speech to foreign diplomats condemning human rights violations and expressing concern for those caught up in conflict; international observers criticised her apparent denial of ethnic cleansing and claims that Muslims in Rakhine state have access to health and education services without discrimination; that 50% of Muslim villages remained untouched; and that military operations had ended 5 Sept. Commander in chief 21 Sept said military had handled situation as best it could, called for displaced “ethnic” (ie non-Muslim) communities to return to villages as soon as possible. Govt found two mass graves in northern Rakhine 24 and 25 Sept containing 45 bodies, said they are Hindu villagers killed by ARSA. Nationalist monk Wirathu gave speech on Rakhine crisis in Kayin state capital 10 Sept attended by nearly 40,000 people, in violation of preaching ban.

Serious escalation in northern Rakhine state as militant group Harakah al-Yaqin/Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) launched coordinated attacks on 30 police posts and army base 25 Aug; some 80 militants and twelve members of security forces killed; military subsequently conducted “clearance operations”. Govt evacuated some 4,000 non-Muslim civilians from area; some 27,500 Rohingya attempting to flee to Bangladesh, but Bangladesh said it cannot accept them. Indications that ARSA has attacked non-Muslim villages and killed several residents represents serious new development. Tensions had been on rise ahead of attack with several incidents suggesting increased ARSA activity, deployment of additional Myanmar troops and tensions between villagers and security forces. Govt’s Maungdaw Investigation Commission 6 Aug issued final report strongly criticising UN human rights chief’s Feb report that found “very likely commission of crimes against humanity” by military during its late 2016 operations targeting ARSA; said it found no evidence of significant human rights violations by security forces. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 9 Aug convened special security meeting on Rakhine state, after which Rakhine state govt announced increased security measures, greater restrictions on foreign NGOs in northern Rakhine; military announced deployment of some 500 troops to northern Rakhine; and govt announced extension and expansion of curfew. Large demonstrations against UN and foreign NGOs took place across Rakhine state 13 Aug; ASSK’s office 28 Aug statement that aid workers were helping terrorists prompted UN to evacuate non-essential staff from area for their security; govt claim condemned by rights groups. Kofi Annan’s Advisory Commission on Rakhine state submitted final report 23 Aug with recommendations to address legitimate grievances of Rakhine and prevent violence; govt welcomed report. With ethnic peace process apparently stalled, govt and United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) peace negotiators met for sixth time 10 Aug; no clear progress toward agreements that would convince UNFC member armed groups to sign Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. UNFC leader later reported trust “at zero”. Fresh clashes broke out between govt forces and Kachin Independence Organisation in Mogaung township, Kachin state 10-11 Aug, displacing over 1,000.

In northern Rakhine state, Buddhist mob 5 July attacked group of seven Muslims from IDP camp near state capital Sittwe, killing one and injuring six, despite them being escorted by policeman. Security forces in area around Maungdaw remain on high alert following late June attack on Buddhist civilians. Sporadic killings of villagers in northern Rakhine continued, blamed on Rohingya insurgents. Govt maintained refusal to admit fact-finding mission established by UN Human Rights Council (HRC) to look into allegations of crimes against humanity committed by military in northern Rakhine state, despite international pressure and strong criticism from human rights groups; HRC 27 July announced new chair of mission, Indonesia’s Marzuki Darusman, after Indira Jaising resigned amid claims of bias. Visiting mid-month, UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights Yanghee Lee urged govt to allow mission, also complained of restrictions on her access and criticised state surveillance of activists and journalists. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi visited Myanmar 1-6 July, travelling to Rakhine state and meeting Aung San Suu Kyi and several ministers in Naypyitaw; called for greater efforts to address statelessness and protracted displacement. Myanmar’s National Security Adviser visited Bangladesh 2-4 July, meeting PM in visit aimed at easing tensions fuelled by exodus of some 75,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh since Oct 2016. Amid uncertainty in ethnic peace process, two groups – Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and Wa National Organisation – quit United Nationalities Federal Council armed group umbrella organisation late June. Further clashes broke out 8-9 July in Kachin state’s Tanai township between govt forces and KIO, with several civilians reported killed or injured by govt artillery fire. Clashes between Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and govt forces in northern Shan continued, and broke out between TNLA and Shan State Army-South; several hundred civilians reportedly fled fighting during month.

Tensions rose in northern Rakhine state after two Buddhist villagers were killed, two injured 25 June by unknown assailants; some 200 reportedly fled to nearby town fearing further attacks. Military killed three people while clearing suspected Rohingya insurgent training camp 20-21 June. Authorities 5 June announced twelve-year-old boy died in custody 2 Feb; boy was one of six children aged twelve-to-fifteen being held in police detention since Nov 2016 for alleged involvement in late 2016 attacks on security forces in N Rakhine. Govt continues to reject UN Human Rights Council’s March appointment of fact finding mission into allegations of serious violations committed by military in N Rakhine state and elsewhere in country; Aung San Suu Kyi 12 June said it “would have created greater hostility between the different communities”. Clashes involving ethnic armed groups continued in north east, particularly around Kachin State’s Tanai township, where govt forces clashed with Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) 3 June, capturing KIO outpost near town. Military helicopter 5 June dropped leaflets informing people that military would conduct clearance operations and they should leave by 15 June or be treated as “cooperating with KIO terrorists”; tens of thousands of migrant mine workers subsequently fled. Regulatory body for Buddhist monks 23 May banned largest Buddhist nationalist group (Organisation for the Protection of Race and Religion, or MaBaTha) from using that name; MaBaTha subsequently announced name change to “Buddha Dhamma Parahita Foundation”; group’s lay members stated they would also form political party to contest 2020 elections. Military 26 June detained three journalists investigating story on Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Shan state (north east), charged them with “unlawful association”, raising concerns over media freedom. Heavy clashes between TNLA and govt forces since 20 June. U.S. 27 June upgraded Myanmar to Tier 2 in annual Trafficking in Persons report, removed it from list of countries using child soldiers to which U.S. cannot provide military assistance, drawing criticism from international rights groups.

Delayed Panglong-21 Peace Conference held 24-29 May, with broader participation than expected after China brokered last-minute deal to fly seven armed groups from NE to Naypyitaw; these groups attended opening segment, also met with Aung San Suu Kyi and other officials, but did not participate in conference discussions. Conference agreed 37 “principles” including some governing future federal arrangement, although with deep divisions over some points. Sporadic clashes ongoing between govt forces and Ta’ang National Liberation Army troops in N Shan state’s Namkhan township since late-April, as well as with Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in Kokang region. Tensions between govt forces and Kachin Independence Organisation troops also reportedly high in jade mining area Hpakant in Kachin state 19 May. Govt 13 May announced discovery of bodies of five men – two “foreigners” and three local Muslim residents, including two Islamic leaders – buried in Buthidaung township in N Rakhine state; bomb-making materials also found 7 May. Authorities claim they were killed, and several injured, in 4 May explosion during IED training session being taught by the foreigners, reportedly Pakistani. UN 30 May appointed three experts to fact-finding mission into human rights in Myanmar, including Rohingya crackdown, mandated by Human Rights Council in March; govt reiterated its rejection of move. Yangon court 28 April began hearings in case against seven nationalists including three monks for holding unauthorised anti-Rohingya demonstration outside U.S. embassy in 2016; after hearing, some 50 nationalists forced closure of four nearby madrassas; police negotiated padlocking of the schools in effort to calm protesters. Following 9 May court hearing on related case, group of some 50 nationalists and monks went to nearby township with large Muslim population demanding authorities search house accused of harbouring illegal Rohingya; none were found and police fired warning shots to restore control. Arrest warrants issued for seven nationalist demonstrators, including two monks, for inciting violence. Kofi Annan-led advisory commission for Rakhine state held further round of consultations 8-16 May, in Yangon, Sittwe and Naypyitaw.

Some 16,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) reported to have returned to their home villages in Maungdaw, northern Rakhine, following end of military operations; around 4,000 IDPs remain, some 74,000 still seeking refuge in Bangladesh. Amid ongoing investigations into alleged abuses by military against Rohingya Muslims, Aung San Suu Kyi 5 April told BBC ethnic cleansing “too strong an expression to use for what is happening”. UN Refugee Agency 25 April criticised govt plan to resettle Rohingya in “camp-like” villages, which it said could create further tensions. Ethnic peace process remained mired in difficulty ahead of next “Panglong-21” Peace Conference set to take place 24 May. Suu Kyi 28 March visited Kachin state capital Myitkyina and nearby IDP camps, urged Kachin Independence Organisation to sign Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA); visit viewed unfavourably by many Kachin. Suu Kyi State Counsellor Office issued press release 30 March coinciding with one-year anniversary of her govt, announcing that five small United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) armed group members would sign NCA; groups next day said they had not yet decided to sign. No groups involved in serious fighting in NE appear likely to sign, and summit of seven armed groups convened by Wa 15-19 April rejected NCA as basis for peace, established new joint negotiating team. Although clashes eased over Myanmar’s New Year in April, renewed fighting seen as likely. Suu Kyi noted 30 March progress on legislative reform and health care, promised new focus on job creation, transport and electricity. U.S. Navy vessel made goodwill visit to Yangon 21-25 March, first official stop by U.S. Navy for decades. President Htin Kyaw paid state visit to China 6-11 April; two sides agreed terms for shipment of oil through pipeline from Kyaukpyu port on Indian Ocean to China. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won only nine of nineteen seats in 1 April by-election, although many seats were in ethnic or conflict-affected areas where party is not strong.

Amid continued focus on crisis in Rakhine state, Kofi Annan-led Rakhine Commission 16 March released interim report with 29 recommendations covering issues from Rohingya citizenship, freedom of movement and birth registration to humanitarian and media access, and improving bilateral relations with Bangladesh. Govt released statement fully endorsing Commission’s recommendations and undertaking to quickly implement most; stated that a few would first require improvements in situation on ground. UN Human Rights Council (HRC) 24 March adopted resolution calling for international panel of experts to conduct “fact-finding mission” to Myanmar; falls short of international Commission of Inquiry many called for; govt said HRC move “not acceptable”. UNSC discussed Rakhine state crisis 17 March, Russia and China blocked press statement. Situation in N Rakhine remains largely unchanged: no further significant attacks by al-Yaqin, but continued killings of Rohingya with links to govt that may be work of group. Military operations largely over, far fewer reported abuses. A couple of thousand internally displaced persons returned to homes, estimated 20,000 remain in Maungdaw, 74,550 confirmed to have fled to Bangladesh. Domestic “investigation commission” looking into allegations of rights abuses visited Bangladesh. Al-Yaqin 28 March issued press release rebranding itself “Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army”, reaffirming no links to terrorist groups, assuring safety of civilians from all communities; also issued twenty-point demands, mostly relating to Rohingya civil and political rights. Ethnic peace process remained stalled: next “Panglong-21” peace process postponed until at least May; date, which armed groups will attend and what will be discussed unclear. Govt negotiators met with negotiating team of United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), umbrella group of many non-signatory groups) in Naypyitaw 1 March, reached ad referendum agreement in principle on nine points that UNFC has said are prerequisite for signing National Ceasefire Agreement; however, no agreement among UNFC leaders to endorse agreement. Fighting escalated 6 March when Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army attacked capital of Kokang Self-Administered Zone Laukkai, abducted over 250 workers, engaged in dozens of battles with military. Chinese authorities said at least 20,000 had arrived after 6 March attack.

UN-OHCHR 3 Feb released report on human rights abuses by security forces in N Rakhine state following Oct attacks on police posts by al-Yaqin armed group. Report, which found “very likely commission of crimes against humanity” including mass killings and gang rapes, significantly increased momentum behind calls for international commission of inquiry, to be discussed at UN Human Rights Council session in March. 73,000 Rohingya now reported to have fled to Bangladesh since 9 Oct, 24,000 internally displaced. Having previously denied similar allegations, govt 8 Feb said it would investigate allegations, however, gave task to commission headed by VP-1 Myint Swe, whose credibility was undermined when it issued preliminary report in Jan finding no evidence of abuses. Military and police set up separate, internal investigations 9 and 11 Feb; military chief of general staff Gen Mya Tun Oo in 28 Feb press conference said military had so far not been able to substantiate OHCHR accusations of rape and other atrocities, denied general allegations of Rohingya persecution. New National Security Adviser 15 Feb told diplomats military “clearance operations” had now ended; humanitarian and media access remain restricted. Curfew restrictions in Maungdaw district since 2012 anti-Muslim violence, which had been tightened following Oct attacks, were relaxed 10 Feb. Speaking at Annual Union Day celebrations marking 70th anniversary of signing of Panglong Agreement on inclusion of ethnic borderlands in independent Burma 12 Feb, Aung San Suu Kyi focused on new “Panglong-21” peace process, urged ethnic armed groups to have “courage” and “self-confidence” to sign Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Govt postponed next Panglong-21 peace conference from 28 Feb to late March, as preparatory meetings started late and with little apparent success in convincing any additional groups to sign NCA. Fighting in Kachin and N Shan states subsided since late-Jan as military has eased offensives against ethnic armed group positions. Motive and ultimate responsibility remained unclear in 29 Jan assassination of leading constitutional lawyer and ruling NLD party adviser Ko Ni.