Military operations continued in north Maungdaw, N Rakhine state, where al-Yaqin armed group staged attacks Oct and Nov. Sweep in Buthidaung township 4 Jan resulted in seizure of home-made guns and arrest of four suspects who authorities claim were planning attack on security targets. Ongoing operations, widespread fear and dire humanitarian situation caused continued displacement, with UN reporting 69,000 had fled to Bangladesh since Oct, at least 23,000 more displaced internally. Humanitarian access marginally improved but remains heavily restricted. Several Rohingya, most with links to authorities, found murdered in Maungdaw township over month; al-Yaqin suspected of responsibility. Investigation Commission established by govt to look into Oct/Nov attacks and security response issued preliminary report 3 Jan stating unable to confirm widespread reports that security forces were responsible for rape, burning of villages and illegal arrests and torture; also stated no cases of malnutrition were found, contradicting UN empirical data. Commission conducted second round of investigations from 6 Jan, but day before its 31 Jan deadline to send final report to president requested “indefinite extension” to look at further allegations. Video purporting to show beating and abuse of Rohingya villagers by security forces posted to social media 31 Dec; govt confirmed video’s authenticity, stated it was taking action to punish police responsible; several officers arrested. Visiting Bangladesh 11-12 Jan, deputy FM Kyaw Tin met with PM and FM, agreed to deepen bilateral relations, begin discussions on repatriation of those who had recently fled from Myanmar to Bangladesh. Prominent Muslim lawyer and legal adviser to Aung San Suu Kyi shot dead at Yangon airport 29 Jan; suspect arrested at scene. Ahead of next “Panglong-21” Peace Conference slated for late Feb, serious clashes continued between “Northern Alliance” of four armed group and govt forces in N Shan state. Govt forces also continued offensives against Kachin Independence Organisation positions in Kachin state, making gains late Dec and early Jan including group’s 3rd Battalion headquarters and nearby hill posts 12 Jan. Fighting close to IDP camps prompted some 4,000 IDPs to attempt to seek shelter in China on 11 Jan; reportedly turned back by Chinese authorities. Ta’ang National Liberation Army attacked govt troops in Namhsan town 10 Jan. Govt peace advisers met with National Ceasefire Agreement non-signatory armed groups in Chiang Mai 12-13 Jan, no substantive progress reported.

Humanitarian access to closed areas of N Rakhine state, where security forces were attacked by Harakah al-Yaqin (Faith Movement, HaY) armed group in Oct and Nov, remained blocked to over 150,000 including estimated 30,000 newly displaced. Kofi Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine state visited conflict-affected parts of N Maungdaw 2-4 Dec, called for resumed humanitarian access; call also made in statement from fourteen diplomatic missions 9 Dec. UN human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein 16 Dec accused Myanmar of “counterproductive, even callous” approach to crisis, cited daily reports of abuses including rapes and killings. Rakhine situation prompted regional tensions including with Malaysia, whose PM Najib Razak speaking at major protest in Kuala Lumpur 4 Dec called for international intervention to stop “genocide”. At special ASEAN retreat in Yangon 19 Dec, govt reiterated its “serious commitment” to resolving “complex issue”, need for “time and space”. President 1 Dec announced national commission to investigate Oct/Nov attacks and military’s response. Fighting between govt and Northern Alliance of four armed groups – Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army (AA) – in Shan and Kachin states intensified over month. Myanmar military further stepped up attacks, particularly on KIO positions, and took key strategic base, Gidon, from KIO 17 Dec after intense fighting including air attacks and heavy artillery bombardment. Fighting caused further 5,000 IDPs to flee to KIO HQ at Laiza; UN 20 Dec estimated 15,000 have fled into China since 20 Nov. Chinese mediation attempt, bringing together Myanmar govt’s Peace Commission and leaders of TNLA, MNDAA, AA and United Wa State Party (UWSP) in Kunming 3-4 Dec failed. Clashes resumed 20 Dec between TNLA and Shan State Army-South (SSA-South) ethnic armed groups in N Shan state’s Namtu township; clashes also took place between AA and govt forces in S Chin state’s Paletwa township 12 Dec. Military and some opposition parties pushed in legislature for Northern Alliance groups and individual military leaders to be declared terrorists; rejected by NLD majority. Shan state legislature passed similar resolution 7 Dec.

Violence in Rakhine state intensified following 9 Oct attacks, with scores of civilians reported killed in 12 Nov escalation, and humanitarian situation in area becoming more dire. Efforts to maintain momentum on ethnic peace process also faced major setback following joint attacks by four armed groups since 20 Nov. Escalation in Rakhine came as military column was surrounded in Muslim village by group of attackers joined by several hundred villagers 12 Nov, killing senior Myanmar military officer; military mobilised attack helicopters to fire on local villages, killing scores (69 from 9-14 Nov alone, according to military); dead allegedly include women and children. UN special advisor on prevention of genocide Adama Dieng 29 Nov said allegations must be verified “as a matter of urgency”, called for govt to allow access. Mission comprising govt ministers, UN Resident Coordinator and nine ambassadors visited N Rakhine 2-3 Nov; UN and diplomats called for credible, independent investigation into Oct attacks and subsequent events. UNSC discussed situation 17 Nov, with calls for international investigation and restoration of humanitarian access. With exception of one-time World Food Program (WFP) delivery to four villages, humanitarian access remains blocked, including emergency food deliveries and other aid for 150,000 people in N Maungdaw. Estimated 15,000 have fled to Bangladesh and many thousands more internally displaced. Efforts to maintain momentum on ethnic peace process weakened by major joint attacks by Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army (AA) in Shan State from 20 Nov, representing rare attacks on urban areas, key trade zone on Chinese border, and blocking highway to China, country’s biggest trade route; at least 3,000 local residents have fled to China. Events considerably set back prospects for Aung San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) 28 Oct call for non-signatories of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) to sign it as soon as possible, and puts into question possibility for success of next Panglong-21 peace conference in Feb 2017. Non-signatories have been reluctant to sign NCA, against backdrop of escalating offensives by govt forces in Kachin and N Shan states in recent months which have eroded trust between armed groups and govt/military. Several incidents of journalists being dismissed or arrested following critical reporting of govt/military raised concerns over whether press freedom and free speech are under threat, particularly in relation to Rakhine violence.

Several hundred people armed with knives, slingshots and small number of firearms 9 Oct launched three separate, coordinated attacks on border police bases near Maungdaw in N Rakhine state, near border with Bangladesh. Nine police and eight attackers killed, at least 50 weapons and 10,000 rounds of ammunition looted. Several deadly clashes in following days as security forces attempted to capture attackers and retrieve arms cache, with at least 22 further casualties and several deaths in custody reported in state media; 10-15,000 Rohingya Muslims and 3,000 Buddhist Rakhine reportedly displaced. Allegations by human rights organisations and media of extrajudicial executions of civilians, rapes and burning of several Rohingya villages by security forces in N Rakhine state following attacks. President’s Office 13 Oct released statement saying that attacks were carried out by previously-unknown group Aqa Mul Mujahidin, with some outside financial support and training (including from Pakistan Taliban), however during subsequent visit to India Aung San Suu Kyi said full details still unknown. Humanitarian access to area, including emergency food deliveries, blocked since attacks; UN reported some 50,000 people affected. Fighting between Kachin Independence Organisation and govt forces escalated since mid-Sept in Kachin and N Shan states, including use of airpower and long-range artillery. Thousands of ethnic Kachin marched in Kachin state capital Myitkyina 6 Oct to protest against clashes. Several hundred United Wa State Army (UWSA) troops 28 Sept raided and took control of three outposts of its allied armed group National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA, Mongla) in Shan state; no reported casualties. UWSA has refused to withdraw. Legislature 26 Sept passed motion calling for investigation of Myanmar National Human Rights Commission (MNHRC, appointed by previous govt) over its mishandling of case involving torture and enslavement of two teenage maids; President’s Office indicated it is investigating MNHRC’s actions.

Four-day “Panglong-21” peace conference in Naypyitaw ended 3 Sept, launching new phase of peace process. Conference attended by nearly all armed groups – except for three groups without bilateral ceasefires; inclusivity of armed groups represented significant step forward, but there were signs of frustration by some armed groups attending, and many challenges ahead. Govt stated that it plans to hold biannual conferences. Over a dozen clashes since 30 Aug between Karen splinter group and govt troops/border guard force in Kayin state; around 4,000 displaced, dozens of combatant casualties reported. In rare admission of culpability, court martial 15 Sept found seven Myanmar army personnel including four officers guilty of murdering five villagers in Shan state in June, sentenced them to five years’ hard labour. Arakan National Party (ANP), opposition USDP and nine other parties 16 Sept issued joint statement supporting symbolic vote in Rakhine state legislature calling for the disbanding of newly-established Advisory Commission on Rakhine state, headed by former UNSG Kofi Annan, over lack of Rakhine political representation, inclusion of foreigners. During mid-Sept visit to U.S., Aung San Suu Kyi met with President Obama, who announced lifting of nearly all U.S. sanctions on Myanmar other than arms embargo and visa restrictions on some former military leaders, also reinstatement of GSP trade preferences. Suu Kyi 21 Sept spoke at UNGA. Opposition Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), established by former regime, announced major leadership reorganisation 23 Aug, new executive committee.

Four-day Panglong-21 peace conference began 31 Aug between govt and armed groups, including UNFC alliance of armed groups; UNSG Ban gave opening address. Negotiations to include three smaller, previously excluded groups unsuccessful and they did not attend. Armed clashes between Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and govt forces took place near group’s Laiza HQ 7 Aug, while KIO front-line posts were reportedly shelled 18 Aug. Followed clashes in Kachin State’s Hpakant and Tanai townships starting 8 Aug; Hpakant fighting reportedly began with KIO ambush of police convoy. Govt 23 Aug appointed high-profile joint national-international Advisory Commission to find “lasting solutions” to “complex and delicate issues” in Rakhine State, where first phase of revamped citizenship verification process – issuance of “national verification cards” that can later be used to initiate citizenship claims – continues to proceed slowly due to low interest/resistance from Muslim communities. Commission to be chaired by former UNSG Kofi Annan; international members include former special advisor to UNSG Ghassan Salame, national members include Buddhists and Muslims, but no Muslims from Rakhine State. Aung San Suu Kyi visited China 17-21 Aug, met with Premier Li and President Xi, discussed major Chinese projects including Myitsone Dam, Chinese support for Myanmar peace process.

Ahead of Panglong-21 peace conference between govt and armed groups planned for late-Aug, representatives of seventeen armed groups held major strategy meeting in Kachin Independence Organisation territory 26-30 July; decisions by armed groups on whether they will attend Panglong-21 to be taken individually on basis of further discussions with govt. UN and China attended as international observers. Over 1,000 people demonstrated 16 July in N Shan state capital against late June killings of seven civilians, five of whom were among several detained by military 25 June. In unprecedented move, military took public responsibility for killings; military intelligence chief 20 July indicated that military investigation had found that troops acted illegally in killing five of the civilians; action to be taken against them. Renewed clashes erupted early July between Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Shan State Army-South armed groups in N Shan state, over 100 villagers fled. Arakan National Party issued statement rejecting June proposal by Myanmar representative to UN Human Rights Council to use term “Muslim community in Rakhine state” instead of “Rohingya”, launched Rakhine state-wide protests 3 July. UN human rights chief released report 20 June on “systematic discrimination” and other rights violations against minorities in Myanmar, particularly Rohingya Muslims. In first incident of anti-Muslim violence under new govt, Buddhist mob ransacked Muslim shop and mosque in Bago region village 23 June, prompting 100 villagers to flee; chief minister indicated no charges would be brought. In Kachin state mob burned down Muslim prayer hall 1 July; five suspects arrested. Chief minister of Yangon region 3 July criticised Buddhist nationalist MaBaTha organisation; MaBaTha demanded action against him and threatened protest, but backed down after ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) voiced support for him. State Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee, (the Sangha Council, tasked with safeguarding/regulating Buddhism), 12 July issued statement declaring MaBaTha has no lawful status as a Buddhist organisation. Civil society group previous day lodged criminal complaint against leading MaBaTha monk Wirathu for “showing disrespect to Buddhism”. Religion data from 2014 census released by govt 21 July showing percentages essentially unchanged: 88% Buddhist, 6% Christian, 4.3% Muslim; some analysts and Muslim leaders questioned credibility of data.

State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 31 May established “Preparatory Committee for Union Peace Conference (Panglong-21)”, slated to meet late-Aug, and two subcommittees for engaging with Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signatory armed groups and non-signatories. Also established committee for formation of “National Reconciliation and Peace Centre” (NRPC). Dr Tin Myo Win confirmed as govt’s lead peace negotiator. NCA-mandated Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) also re-formed 28 May, with ASSK as chair. Issues to be discussed at peace conference reduced from five thematic areas previously set out to two: political and security. Sub-committee for non-signatories met in Thailand 3 June with United Nationalities Federal Council umbrella group of non-signatory armed groups. Govt formally invited groups to attend preparatory meeting in Yangon in July, together with NCA-signatory armed groups and UPDJC, to prepare for Panglong-21. Armed conflict continued N Shan state between Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and govt forces; between TNLA and Shan State Army-South; and between govt forces and Shan State Army-North. Minor clashes also continued, including on 5 June, between Arakan Army and govt forces in Rakhine state. Distribution of “national verification cards” to Muslims without citizenship cards started 7 June in three townships in Rakhine state; cardholders will be able to apply for citizenship verification. Followed 31 May formation of Central Committee on Implementation of Peace, Stability and Development of Rakhine state, also chaired by ASSK.

Legislature 10 May approved without discussion president’s request to establish new State Counsellor Ministry to support ASSK’s work as state counsellor; retired ambassador Kyaw Tint Swe appointed 17 May to head ministry. At 13 May press conference Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing confirmed he will not retire during coming govt. Seventeen senior members of former ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) including former chair Shwe Mann expelled from party 22 April. ASSK 27 April met Joint Monitoring Committee of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), gave first outline of her peace plans: called for conference within one-to-two months, indicated she would personally lead peace process and her personal physician Tin Myo Win to be in day-to-day charge. Plans announced without prior consultation with armed groups and other stakeholders. Govt 31 May set up committees making up new peace architecture. Serious armed clashes continued, including between govt forces and Kachin Independence Organization in Kachin state, Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine state and Shan State Army-North ceasefire group in Shan state; also clashes between Shan State Army-South and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in N Shan state in early-May, leading to the displacement of an additional 1,600 villagers. U.S. renewed sanctions against Myanmar 17 May, including arms embargo, ban on jade and gem imports, and list of over 100 “specially designated” individuals/entities U.S. nationals are prohibited from dealing with; eased some restrictions with aim to ease trade, removed state-owned banks from U.S. blacklist and lifted sanctions against seven state-owned timber and mining companies. U.S. Sec State Kerry during 22 May visit discussed situation in Rakhine state with ASSK and Commander-in-Chief; followed calls by Buddhist nationalist protesters and govt for U.S. embassy to refrain from using word Rohingya. ASSK called for all parties to avoid “emotive” terms like “Rohingya” and “Bengali”. Govt 31 May announced formation of central committee for implementation of peace and development in Rakhine State.

Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) confirmed in two cabinet positions, FM and minister in the President’s Office, after energy and education portfolios given to other ministers 5 April. Parliament 5 April approved bill creating new extra-constitutional position of “State Counsellor” specifically for ASSK, providing her legal authority to advise both executive and legislative branches; law pushed through despite objections from military bloc that it was unconstitutional. New govt released over 150 jailed activists 8 and 17 April; 69 of whom were students charged with illegal demonstration and 83 of whom were people imprisoned on political grounds who received presidential pardons. Fighting between govt forces and Arakan Army in Rakhine state continued, with clashes 16 April in Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun and Rathedaung townships killing several soldiers. Kyauktaw court late-March/early-April sentenced some 30 people to prison sentences of three to five years for links to rebel group. Meeting of groups who did not sign National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in Wa enclave 26-28 March resolved to negotiate end to fighting, but also take joint military action if necessary to respond to attacks by govt forces/“other armed groups”. Eight NCA-signatory armed groups held meeting in Chiang Mai 24-26 March, discussed preparations for dialogue with new govt and formed “Peace Process Steering Team”. Outgoing President Thein Sein 28 March lifted state of emergency in Rakhine state, in place since June 2012 following outbreaks of deadly communal violence. At least 21 Rohingya IDPs drowned 19 April when boat they were taking from IDP camp to local market near Sittwe capsized in heavy seas. In first official engagement as FM, ASSK hosted Chinese FM Wang Yi on a two day visit to Myanmar 5-6 April; Wang also met commander-in-chief and president.