CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Philippines

Continued uptick in violence; 8 killed by bomb in Cotabato City, Mindanao 5 Aug; 3 bombings in central Mindanao 7 Aug, with targets including army truck. Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) claimed responsibility for latter. Police 6 Aug filed murder charges against suspects in 26 July Cagayan de Oro bombing, including member of new Khilafah Islamic Movement, which officials claim has links with foreign jihadis. President Aquino 8 Aug suggested BIFM, Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and other new radical group perpetrating recent attacks to derail Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace process. Clashes between BIFM and Philippine military 10-13 Aug displaced almost 10,000 villagers in 2 towns in N Cotabato province. Govt-MILF peace talks resumed mid-Aug, with 2 of 4 annexes to Oct 2012 pact left to negotiate. In Sulu archipelago, some 70 members of ASG and military clashed in Basilan 8 Aug; 1 soldier, 7 militants killed. 2 injured by bomb in Jolo town 14 Aug; military blamed ASG. Moro National Liberation Front founder Nur Misuari 12 Aug declared independence of Palawan, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, and Sabah in eastern Malaysia. Manila and Washington opened negotiations over U.S. military presence in Philippines. Ahead of Chinese-hosted talks with ASEAN in Sept, Chinese FM Wang warned against rushing South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations; Wang and Chinese analysts accuse Philippines of delaying process. Philippines acquired old U.S. coast guard ship 6 Aug to patrol South China Sea.

Asia

Philippines

Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace process boosted by 13 July signing of wealth-sharing annex with govt, 2nd of 4 annexes required to complete Oct 2012 framework agreement. In state of the nation address 22 July President Aquino reiterated his commitment to peace in Muslim south, also asked Congress to pass Bangsamoro Basic Law by end 2014 to establish new autonomy arrangements in Mindanao. MILF splinter group Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM), which opposes peace process, 6 July launched series of attacks in central Mindanao that injured 6 civilians, killed 5 soldiers. 2 soldiers, 5 insurgents killed 13 July in BIFM attack in Maguindanao province. Farmer killed 29 July as BIFM launched raid on villages in North Cotabato province. 26 July bombing in Cagayan de Oro, northern Mindanao, killed 8 and injured 48; no one claimed responsibility. Nur Misuari, founder of Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), predecessor of MILF, angered by govt efforts to wind down Organisation of Islamic Conference-led review of failed 1996 peace agreement; organised rally in Sulu late month. Security forces reportedly killed 7 communist rebels in Tarlac province 31 July.

Asia

Philippines

Continued concern over lack of progress on govt-MILF peace process as talks remain stalled. MILF complained after 4 of its members arrested for illegal possession of ammunition. In Mindanao, land conflictin SW North Cotabato continued, with hundreds of families displaced since May. Member of paramilitary Civilian Armed Force Geographical Unit (CAFGU) killed in clash with MILF members in area mid-June.In Sulu archipelago, member of police intelligence shot dead, allegedly by Abu Sayyaf Group(ASG), outsideIsabela City, Basilan 16 June. Several security forces killed across country by communist New People’s Army (NPA).Increased tensions between Philippines and China over South China Sea late June as countries exchanged threats, accusations over disputed territories. Philippines and Taiwan 14 June agreed to share maritime law enforcement procedures, establish means of contacting each other about enforcement actions underway,  develop “mechanism” for releasing fishing vessels and crews.

Asia

Philippines

President Aquino’s slate of candidates fared well in mid-term legislative and local elections 13 May; ruling coalition maintained control of House of Representatives, strengthened presence in senate, Aquino’s Liberal Party won 2 crucial races in Muslim Mindanao. Police documented 51 election-related killings 13 Jan-13 May. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-led Bangsamoro Transition Commission, body that will draft basic legislation on autonomy, finally received funds to begin work. Govt and MILF task forces for welfare assistance scheme to deliver peace dividends to MILF agreed where program would be rolled out. Serious fighting erupted between MILF and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) in North Cotabato 5 May; 1 killed, International Monitoring Team intervened. Another clash 16 May; over 10,000 displaced by late May. 7 soldiers, 7 militants killed in clash between Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and military 25 May on Jolo; 6 ASG, 3 soldiers killed in other clashes. Communist New People’s Army (NPA) killed 5 soldiers in Negros Occidental 4 May, and 3 people it accused of providing intelligence to military 19 May. Coast guard 9 May shot dead Taiwanese fisherman in latest escalation of tensions in South China Sea, setting off serious diplomatic row. Tensions also increased with China as Philippines 10 May lodged protest with Chinese embassy over warship and 2 surveillance vessels in vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal/Ayungin.

Asia

Philippines

MILF peace process made minimal progress in early April talks. Parties unable to conclude wealth-sharing annex as govt negotiators requested further time to clear provisions with cabinet, but unveiled terms of reference for socio-economic assistance program in MILF areas. Next round postponed until after 13 May mid-term legislative, local elections. Meanwhile, MILF-led transition commission held first meeting 3 April. Series of clashes on island province Basilan, beginning 9 April when army intelligence officer killed; govt blamed Malaysian radical Amin Baco alias Abu Jihad. Military and police 15 April raided camp of Isnilon Hapilon and Puruji Indama, leaders of extremist Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in province; 8 ASG killed, army reported Hapilon wounded. Another 2 soldiers killed 28 April by ASG gunmen in Lamitan. Several possibly election-related killings reported, including some perpetrated by communist New People’s Army (NPA). In Mindanao, Gingoog mayor Ruthie Guingona – from prominent political family – injured in 20 April firefight at illegal NPA checkpoint that killed her 2 police escorts; highlighted increased NPA activity in Mindanao in recent months. Chinese ship ran aground on Tubbataha reef 8 April, charged with poaching. Philippine case filed with International Tribunal on Law of the Sea against China over South China Sea claims moved forward with appointment of 5 judges to tribunal.

Asia

Philippines

Violence broke out in Sabah, Malaysia between supporters of Jamalul Kiram III, descendant of sultan of Sulu, and Malaysian security forces (see Malaysia). Malaysian-facilitated MILF peace talks aborted 25 Mar and postponed to mid-April; Philippine govt denied link to Sabah conflict. Australian kidnapped in Dec 2011 released by Abu Sayyaf Group end month.

Asia

Philippines

Two Malaysian police and 1 civilian killed in Sabah, Eastern Malaysia, 1 March after weeks-long standoff with 180 followers, 20-30 bearing arms, of Sultan Jamalul Kiram III. Sultan claimed he was asserting unresolved Philippine claim to Sabah. Malaysian security forces surrounded area and demanded group leave. Philippine govt said Sultan should not pursue claim by force; urged followers to return home. MILF disputed Sultan’s claim that he had not been consulted on Oct 2012 peace agreement. Latest talks on annexes to peace agreement began 25 Feb; on same day, members of MILF- and govt-appointed transition commission named. President Aquino travelled to MILF HQ 11 Feb for launch of Sajahatra Bangsamoro, new socio-economic assistance program for MILF communities. 2 cameramen kidnapped June 2012 by Abu Sayyaf Group in Sulu released 2 Feb; clash broke out next day between fighters of MNLF commander Habier Malik and ASG members, over 20 killed. Security guard shot dead during New People’s Army (NPA) raid in Bukidnon, Mindanao 19 Feb. Amid reports that NPA charging candidates for May elections for “permit to campaign”, military announced guerrillas raised 25 million pesos through extortion in 2012. China 19 Feb rejected Philippines’ request for international arbitration of South China Sea dispute, citing “serious mistakes both in fact and law”. Foreign ministry announced Philippines would receive 10 new Japanese patrol boats for coast guard within 18 months.

Asia

Philippines

Attacks by communist New People’s Army (NPA) resumed following end of holiday ceasefire; several rebels and soldiers killed in small-scale clashes late month. In Negros Occidental, alleged NPA members ambushed truck 27 Jan, killing 9, including 1 police officer. Peace talks in Malaysia between MILF and govt concluded 25 Jan; parties announced creation of 3rd party monitoring team to oversee implementation of Oct 2012 peace agreement. Negotiations continuing on supplementary “annexes”. MNLF and MILF 16 Jan clashed in land dispute, killing 2; 4 killed in clashes between MILF units over land 22 Jan. Police-led operation 6 Jan killed 13 alleged criminals in gangland-style execution in Quezon province, putting pressure on President Aquino to address abuses perpetrated by police. Ahead of May elections, local politicians killed in provinces of Pampanga, North Cotabato, Isabela. Govt 22 Jan decided to bring China to UN arbitration tribunal to resolve South China Sea dispute and challenge “unlawful claim” to Philippine maritime domain.

Asia

Philippines

Govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 12-15 Dec held second round of talks since agreement signed in Oct; failed to agree on whether MILF would lead transition Bangsamoro govt prior to elections in 2016, delaying completion of supplementary annexes to peace pact. President Aquino 17 Dec signed executive order to create transition commission in charge of drafting legislation to create new Bangsamoro govt. Typhoon killed around 1,000 people in eastern Mindanao early Dec, hit stronghold of communist New People’s Army (NPA), which announced month-long ceasefire amid relief operations.  Army reciprocated with holiday ceasefire 16 Dec-3 Jan. NPA 12 Dec attacked police station in Palawan, killing 1 police officer; 7 soldiers, 5 NPA guerrillas killed in 17 Dec clash in Isabela province. NPA leader Filemon Mendrez arrested 25 Dec in Central Visayas. In Mindanao bus bomb explosions 29 Dec injured at least 7. Police 13 Dec arrested alleged member of violent extremist Abu Sayyaf Group in Davao. Meeting between claimants of South China Sea scheduled for mid-Dec postponed amid speculation of pressure from China. Philippines and U.S. held bilateral strategic dialogue. China 27 Dec reportedly sent patrol vessel to disputed waters; Philippines issued statement to “strongly object”.

Asia

Philippines

Govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) held further negotiations 12-17 Nov on 4 annexes to 15 Oct “framework agreement”; next round of talks scheduled Dec. MILF 15 Nov sent delegation to Organisation of Islamic Conference’s (OIC) meeting of FMs; OIC seeking to increase Moro National Liberation Front’s (MNLF) cooperation with MILF in wake of Oct agreement. In Maguindanao, 2 bomb explosions 26 Nov killed 1 member of MILF breakaway group Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM). 21 killed in clashes between govt and communist New People’s Army during month in Mindanao, Luzon. Security forces killed Indonesian extremist 23 Nov in Marawi City. Manila and ASEAN criticised late month reports that Chinese border guards to be given powers to search, seize and expel ships “illegally entering” Chinese waters in South China Sea.

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