CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Philippines

President Aquino 7 Oct announced deal with Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF); signed by chief negotiators 15 Oct. Framework agreement envisions creation of new autonomous regional government called the Bangsamoro, replacing failed Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao; conditions include drafting of law to create region, to be approved by Congress, followed by plebiscite and MILF-led transition before elections in 2016. Further details, particularly policing and decommissioning of MILF forces, to be discussed mid-Nov. Agreement widely welcomed, though criticised by breakaway Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) and Moro National Liberation Front founder Nur Misuari, who organised rally against agreement 21 Oct in Davao. Bombs struck Mindanao 10, 11, 18 Oct; 2 killed. At least 4 killed in 18 Oct MILF-BIFM clashes in Maguindanao. 3 soldiers killed 13 Oct in attack by suspected Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Basilan; 4 marines, 10 ASG killed 28 Oct in Sulu. Police mid Oct arrested 2 suspected Abu Sayyaf leaders in central Mindanao. Govt-New People’s Army (NPA) clashes killed 13 in Mindanao, Western and Eastern Visayas. Chinese vice-FM Fu Ying visited Philippines 19 Oct as part of effort to mend relations after increased tensions over South China Sea. ƒƒ

Asia

Philippines

Exploratory talks between govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 5-8 Sept made significant progress on draft “framework agreement” to set up new autonomous Muslim entity. Breakaway Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) 8 Sept pledged to MILF to stop attacks in central Mindanao; thousands remain displaced. In western Mindanao, security forces 20 Sept rescued Chinese hostage, killed 5 militants after raid on Abu Sayyaf camp. In Basilan province, suspected Abu Sayyaf militants continued attacks on rubber plantation at centre of land dispute; at least 3 killed in latest ambush 20 Sept. In Davao, grenade explosion 1 Sept intended to target army HQ injured 48 civilians; communist New People’s Army (NPA) claimed responsibility. President Aquino 5 Sept signed administrative order to name South China Sea “West Philippine Sea” in official maps.

Asia

Philippines

Separatist Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) launched several attacks in central Mindanao: at least 5 civilians, 10 security forces members, around 60 BIFM fighters killed, 45,000 displaced; MILF 8 Aug condemned attacks; military captured 5 BIFM camps. During 7-11 Aug negotiations, MILF, govt agreed to establish 2 technical working groups on power, wealth sharing. Unidentified gunmen 8 Aug attacked security forces in Marawi city; 3 soldiers, 1 child killed. 5 New People’s Army (NPA) rebels killed 26 Aug in firefight with security forces in Davao City; 2 policemen killed 30 Aug in NPA attack in Makilala, North Cotabato.

Asia

Philippines

MILF 6-9 July held assembly of Bangsamoro leaders at main base in Central Mindanao ahead of 16-18 July peace negotiations with govt. Police 16 July attempted raid in Butig, Lanao del Sur province, allegedly in pursuit of terrorists hiding in MILF area; MILF rebels 24 July referred incident to International Monitoring Team, said raid could undermine truce agreement. Clan violence between MILF commanders in Maguindanao province displaced more than 360 families; MILF 27 July claimed truce brokered. Spate of attacks on rubber plantation in Basilan blamed on disgruntled workers collaborating with violent extremist Abu Sayyaf Group: 6 rubber workers killed 11 July; 12 soldiers, 9 ASG members killed 26 July. Voter registration 9-18 July in Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao declared success despite some reported irregularities. Govt 5 July said it had lodged protest over China’s late-June declaration of development of Sansha City in disputed area of S China Sea; Chinese govt 22 July announced establishment of military garrison in area. ASEAN member states 21 July agreed to 6-point principles on conduct in S China Sea.

Asia

Philippines

2 remaining Filipino vessels 15 June departed Scarborough Shoal due to bad weather; China 17 June responded by also withdrawing boats; govt spokesman 27 June claimed Chinese fishing boats sighted in disputed South China Sea shoal in violation of earlier pullout agreement. 2 major Basilan political clans 5 June agreed to end fighting. Military official 17 June warned foreigners of kidnappings in south following suspected Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) abductions of 2 Chinese businessmen in Kabasalan township 4 June, 12 June abduction of Jordanian journalist, 4 others in Sulu. Suspected ASG attack on bus 8 June killed 4 in Jolo; landmine blast 15 June killed 1 army officer, wounded 3 soldiers in Compostela Valley. Govt, New People’s Army (NPA) talks in Oslo 14-15 June failed to break impasse; 13 NPA fighters killed 1 July in San Narcisco, Botolan clashes, army 9-10 June captured major NPA camp in N Samar following 3 days of clashes; 2 soldiers killed 13 June in NPA ambush in Luzon; NPA attack 21 June killed 1 soldier, 1 civilian in Davao del Sur.

Asia

Philippines

Fishing ban declared by Philippines, China mid-May failed to end Scarborough Shoal dispute, defence chiefs 28 May agreed to exercise restraint. Govt-MILF peace talks resumed 28 May. MILF military affairs chief died 3 May, replacement not yet announced. Mid-May conflict between local MILF, Moro National Liberation Front commanders in North Cotabato displaced close to 300 families. 3 killed, 24 injured in grenade blast in Iligan City 5 May. Authorities 30 May confirmed March murder of witness in 2009 Maguindanao massacre trial. Abu Sayyaf Group rebels 11 May freed Malaysian kidnapped May 2011, still holding 6 foreigners hostage. Senate 29 May impeached Chief Justice Corona on corruption charges.

Asia

Philippines

MILF and govt signed document outlining 10 principles for negotiations at 23-24 April peace talks, includes provision for secular ministerial govt in new Muslim autonomous region. On Basilan, violence continued: Long Malat, commander with Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) ties, killed in clan conflict 1 April; ASG ambush at rubber plantation killed 3 govt militia, 1 ASG member 5 April; 22 soldiers injured in suspected IED attack near captured ASG camp 10 April. Clashes between govt forces and communist New People’s Army (NPA) continued: NPA ambush 25 April killed 11 police, 2 civilians in Ifugao, northern Luzon. Standoff over disputed Scarborough Shoal began 10 April when Philippine military tried to detain Chinese fishermen; diplomats attempting to resolve crisis. Annual joint U.S.-Philippine military exercises conducted 16-27 April; foreign affairs and defence secretaries from both countries 30 April met in Washington, agreed to boost Philippines defences.

Asia

Philippines

Peace talks between govt and MILF resumed 19-21 March, next round to be held April. MILF revealed findings of International Monitoring Team inquiry into Oct 2011 clash between rebels and soldiers; Philippine military cited for 10 violations of ceasefire to MILF’s one. Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) early March met govt under Organisation of Islamic Conference auspices to review 1996 peace agreement: MNLF criticised govt for reneging on June 2011 partnership agreement for governance reform in autonomous region. In Sulu archipelago, 15 March offensive against violent extremist Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) killed 4 militants, 1 soldier, on Basilan; 2 killed 3 March in Jolo town bombing, military said ASG responsible. Media reported “smart bombs” provided by U.S. used in 2 Feb airstrike on Jolo that killed senior ASG leader. Violence involving communist New People’s Army (NPA) continued across country; guerrillas claimed responsibility for killing of Swiss-Filipino businessman 7 March in North Cotabato.

Asia

Philippines

Senior figure of violent extremist Abu Sayyaf group among at least 14 reportedly killed in 2 Feb airstrike on southern island of Jolo; military claimed 2 high profile foreign jihadis with ties to Jemaah Islamiyah killed. Police 14 Feb arrested alleged Abu Sayyaf member in Zamboanga City in connection with 2000-2001 resort kidnappings. Army 11 Feb clashed with 15 Abu Sayyaf militants attempting to bomb road project in southern Basilan. At 13-15 Feb MILF-govt peace talks both sides agreed to renew Ad Hoc Joint Action Group, which facilitates cooperation on interdiction of criminals and terrorists in MILF-controlled areas. Roughly 10,000 fled Rajah Buayan, Maguindanao province, 12-15 Feb when rebel commanders clashed over land. At least 3 killed, 15 wounded in 19 Feb attempt by gunmen to free prisoners from Kidapawan city jail, North Cotabato. 1 soldier killed, 3 wounded in 27 Feb communist guerrilla attack in Compostela Valley province. Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo 23 Feb pleaded not guilty in electoral fraud trial. 3 MILF commanders suspended 28 Feb for involvement in 18 Oct al-Barka clash, Basilan, that left 19 soldiers, 5 rebels dead.

Asia

Philippines

9-11 Jan govt-MILF peace talks saw progress on governance issues, plans for interim period following settlement; further negotiations scheduled mid-Feb. MILF 21 Jan reported fighters from Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) defecting to MILF over lack of MNLF leadership. 4 injured 18 Jan in Bukidnon province clash between security forces and communist New People’s Army. Govt 19 Jan announced joint military drills with the US marines at oil rig in South China Sea, U.S.-Philippine strategic dialogue 26-27 Jan discussed increased U.S. regional presence.

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