CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Philippines

Govt-Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace process appeared back on track with 5-7 Dec talks resulting in statement that Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team (IMT) mandate would be renewed for 2012; talks to resume early Jan. MILF and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) representatives 6-7 Dec met in Saudi Arabia under Organisation of Islamic Conference auspices to improve coordination. IMT investigation into Oct clashes between govt troops and MILF stalled by Zamboanga Sibugay governor early Dec refusing IMT access to site of clashes in Payao. Australian kidnapped 5 Dec in Ipil, Zamboanga Sibugay. Despite deadly clashes 4 and 12 Dec, govt and New People’s Army (NPA) 15 Dec announced holiday truce until 2 Jan. 5 dead, 2 wounded in 16 Dec NPA ambush. Govt 14 Dec launched ship newly acquired from U.S. to patrol disputed Spratly islands.

Asia

Philippines

Govt and MILF 3 Nov held one-day session in Kuala Lampur, in first meeting since MILF rejected govt draft proposal in Aug. No joint statement, but sides committed to meeting again soon, tentatively in early Dec. Clashes between military and MILF in Basilan and Zamboanga Sibugay in Oct being investigated by Malaysian-led international monitoring team. 3 Nov clash left at least 2 MILF members dead, 3 govt militiamen injured in Tulunan town, North Cotabato. Breakaway MILF commander Kato rumoured to have suffered a stroke 24 Nov; conflicting reports as to whether he is alive. Govt troops 6 Nov clashed with suspected NPA rebels in south, 1 soldier dead, 4 wounded; 6 soldiers wounded 7 Nov by suspected Abu Sayyaf landmine in Basilan. Tensions with China over disputed Spratly Islands in South China Sea increased as Philippines promoted plan for oil, gas exploration in region. U.S. Sec State Clinton 15-16 Nov visited Philippines prior to East Asia Summit, declared commitment to rules-based approach to resolving competing maritime claims, freedom of navigation; pledged to provide second warship to Philippines navy.

Asia

Philippines

Violent clashes between soldiers and MILF broke out as peace process remained stalled. MILF 18 Oct claimed army attacked its base in Al Barka, Basilan; 19 soldiers, 6 MILF killed. Military 19 Oct shelled MILF base in Payao, Zamboanga Sibugay; insurgents 20 Oct retaliated killing 4 soldiers, 4 police. Army bombed same area 24-25 Oct, first time since 2008 conflict; 2 soldiers, 6 rebels killed; 11,600 displaced. MILF claims army is violating ceasefire. Govt maintains they are pursuing Waning Abdusalam, leader of criminal gang with outstanding arrest warrants; MILF clarified he is not a member. MILF 25 Oct reaffirmed commitment to peace process but President Aquino under pressure to suspend talks. MILF 3 Oct announced rogue commander Ameril Umbra Kato expelled from group in Sept. In boost for Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) reform process, Supreme Court 18 Oct approved postponement of ARMM elections to 2013; President Aquino to appoint interim leadership to improve governance. Communist New People’s Army (NPA) 3 Oct attacked 3 mining companies in NE Mindanao, raising fears of NPA resurgence, impact of conflict on mining, investment. NPA 9 Oct released Lingig mayor, kidnapped in Aug, in hopes of reviving faltering peace talks. Against backdrop of regional dispute over South China Sea, visiting Vietnamese President 27 Oct backed Philippines’ proposal for peace zone.

Asia

Philippines

No date set for next meeting of govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF); Malaysian facilitator trying to narrow gap between draft proposals. MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim 5 Sept criticised govt for not addressing political roots of conflict; rebel website 15 Sept announced rogue commander Ameril Umbra Kato given until 26 Sept to return to MILF. Kato’s fighters and MILF clashed mid-month in Datu Piang, Maguindanao, leaving 4 dead, thousands evacuated. 2 bombings in Cotabato City 13 Sept during visit of govt official; 3rd bomb discovered next day. Military 11 Sept stepped up offensive against Abu Sayyaf Group in Sulu and Basilan, killing several. Army 25 Sept said 13 rebels, 3 civilians and 2 soldiers killed in clash in Talipano, Sulu. More than 100 communist New People’s Army guerrillas 12 Sept attacked police station in Hinabangan, Samar; peace talks remain stalled. Tensions in South China Sea (SCS) remained high; President Aquino 3 Sept completed first state visit to China, issued joint statement with President Hu Jintao reiterating commitment to address disputes through dialogue, strengthen trade ties. During visit to Japan Aquino 27 Sept met PM Yoshihiko Noda, seeking Japan’s backing in SCS dispute.

Asia

Philippines

President Aquino 4 Aug met MILF chairman Murad Ebrahim, first such high-level meeting since 1997 start of peace talks. Following late-month talks in Kuala Lumpur, MILF negotiating team rejected govt proposal as falling short of rebel demand for new sub-state; both sides said willing to continue talks. Mid-month land conflict killed 14, displaced thousands in Maguindanao; involved fighters from breakaway MILF commander Umbra Kato. MILF still maintains has yet to formally expel Kato; Central Committee to clarify by early Sept. 1 killed in 15 Aug bomb attack against convoy of Maguindanao Governor Esmael Mangudadatu; Mangudadatu unharmed, blamed political rivals; police 18 Aug arrested suspect. 1 killed, 12 wounded in 1 Aug Cotabato City bomb blast. Army 8 Aug killed 3 Abu Sayyaf militants on Jolo island, followed late-July Abu Sayyaf killing of 8 troops.

Asia

Philippines

Govt-MILF talks to resume mid-Aug, when govt due to submit delayed proposal for peace plan. President Aquino 30 June postponed elections in Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao from Aug to 2013. Suspected Abu Sayyaf militants 28 July killed 7 soldiers on Jolo island; 12 July abducted 2 Americans, 1 Filipino outside Zamboanga City. China 12 July rejected Philippines’ offer to bring South China Sea territorial disputes before UN tribunal on maritime law; ASEAN 19 July expressed “serious concern” over potential escalation of dispute.

Asia

Philippines

At 27-28 June talks with MILF in Kuala Lumpur, govt deferred tabling its counter-proposal until next round in Aug; neither side disclosed reason for delay. On eve of talks, MILF accused govt of “scheming” to sideline Malaysian facilitator and International Contact Group in order to pursue direct negotiations. Tensions with China over South China Sea escalated: govt 4 June filed protest with Beijing over at least 7 “aggressive” acts since Feb, denied by China. Philippines 17 June deployed largest warship to area. Joint U.S.-Philippine 11-day naval drills began 28 June near disputed waters. Andal Ampatuan Sr, patriarch of clan suspected of Nov 2009 Mindanao massacre, arraigned 1 June, pled not guilty. String of communist NPA attacks in south 7 June killed 5 security personnel, 1 civilian. 16 June media reports claimed Abu Sayyaf militant group planned bombings in Manila on 12 June Independence Day.

Asia

Philippines

Following early month arrests of 3 alleged members of militant Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Manila and Isabela City, police said ASG trying to infiltrate urban communities. Singaporean detained in Malaysia 6 May for allegedly channelling funds, logistical support to insurgents in southern Philippines; MILF denied any connection to suspect. In clashes with communist New People’s Army, military killed 5 rebels in Cagayan 12 May, 8 rebels in Central Luzon 13 May. Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie visited Philippines 23 May amid tensions over South China Sea.

Asia

Philippines

At talks with govt 27-28 Apr, MILF reiterated that breakaway commander Ameril Umbra Kato was “internal problem”, banned him from using MILF name. Malaysian facilitator Othman Razak, who govt accused of pro-MILF bias, replaced by Tengku Abdul Ghaffar Mohammad. At least 11 killed, hundreds displaced in 3 Apr clashes between MILF and supporters of Maguindanao (Mindanao) governor Esmael “Toto” Mangudadatu. Following March harassment of Department of Energy ship by Chinese vessels, govt 5 Apr filed formal complaint with UN over China’s claims to sovereignty over South China Sea. 2 Abu Sayyaf militants killed 16 Apr in clash with military on Basilan. Army 20 Apr claimed Marvin and Gelita Capones, top communist New People’s Army commanders, surrendered in Samar.

Asia

Philippines

Govt-MILF talks postponed from late March to 27-28 April; MILF leadership said it will resolve issue of breakaway commander Ameril Umbra Kato before next round. House of representatives passed bill postponing Aug elections in Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao to 2013; senate yet to approve. With temporary ceasefire during Feb talks over, govt-NPA clashes resumed: 1 police, 3 rebels killed in Zambales 2 March; 3 rebels killed in Negros Oriental 16 March; several clashes in Mindanao during month. Philippine research vessel approached by 2 Chinese patrol boats close to disputed Spratly Islands 2 March; Beijing includes area in its territorial claims in South China Sea. In response to senate enquiry into corruption in army, President Aquino 6 March appointed Lt-General Eduardo Oban new army chief of staff.

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