CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Philippines

In line with President Aquino’s election pledges, govt resumed formal peace talks with 2 major rebel groups during month. Govt-MILF talks held in Malaysia 9-10 Feb, next round scheduled for 29-30 March; both sides said optimistic of reaching peace deal within a year, Malaysian facilitator Othman Razak, who govt accused of pro-MILF bias, to be replaced, but no successor named. MILF 5 Feb confirmed “renegade” commander Ameril Umbra Kato, implicated in Aug 2008 attacks on civilians, had formed own group Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, but said problem “manageable”; govt expressed concern split could harm peace talks. Army 2 Feb said at least 13 killed in month-long land dispute in North Cotabato where MILF and rival MNLF clashed; further 6 civilians killed 7 Feb. Formal govt negotiations with Communist NPA resumed in Oslo 15 Feb: sides 21 Feb announced road map to peace settlement by June 2012, but rebels called for release of high-level communist party official arrested on eve of talks. 2 soldiers, 5 Abu Sayyaf militants killed 13 Feb in Basilan clash.

Asia

Philippines

“Informal” govt-MILF talks held in Malaysia 13 Jan, first meeting since President Aquino took office June 2010. Govt continues to demand allegedly pro-MILF facilitator Othman Razak be replaced, but both sides agreed to resume “formal” peace talks mid-Feb. 16 Dec-3 Jan ceasefire declared between govt and communist New People’s Army (NPA) largely respected, but clashes resumed early month: NPA 6 Jan killed 3 soldiers in Davao del Norte; killed 5 police in Rizal 23 Jan; army 5 Jan captured senior NPA commander Tirso Alcantara. Govt and NPA representatives held preparatory talks 14-18 Jan; formal negotiations to start 15 Feb in Oslo.

Asia

Philippines

Govt-MILF talks faced continued delays. Mandate of Malaysian-led peace process monitoring team extended 8 Dec by 3 months, but could not be renewed for full term as govt still seeking removal of Malaysian facilitator Othman Razak due to his alleged pro-MILF bias. 3 soldiers killed in 7 Dec clash with MILF in Zamboanga Sibugay. Representatives of govt and communist New People’s Army (NPA) 2 Dec agreed to 16 Dec-3 Jan ceasefire, longest such ceasefire in more than 10 years; formal talks expected to resume Feb 2011. NPA 14 Dec killed 12, including 10 soldiers and 1 child, in Northern Samar; govt denounced attack as “treacherous”. NPA 26 Dec said will continue “revolt” despite ceasefire.

Asia

Philippines

Concerns Govt-MILF ceasefire could fray as talks still delayed: govt requested Malaysia replace facilitator Othman Razak due to alleged pro-rebel bias; MILF requested Razak continue in role. Mandate of Malaysia-led International Monitoring Team to expire 8 Dec; may not be renewed due to problems over facilitator. Defence Minister Gazmin accused MILF of possible involvement in Oct Mindanao bomb attack killing 11; MILF denied, accused Gazmin of undermining ceasefire. Govt 24 Nov said executive order 546 on private armies could not be repealed. In clashes between army and communist New People’s Army, 1 soldier killed 1 Nov in Camarines Sur province, 3 civilians killed 16 Nov in Leyte province.

Asia

Philippines

At least 10 killed in 21 Oct bomb attack on bus in Mindanao. Police 24 Oct arrested 5; unclear if connected to militants, MILF denied responsibility. At least 33 killed, including 20 in Mindanao, in violence related to late month district and local council elections, but police said overall violence down 70% from last poll in 2007. Govt 21 Oct appointed panel to negotiate with communist New People’s Army, said resumption of peace talks not conditional on rebels agreeing to ceasefire.

Asia

Philippines

MILF 13 Sept announced 5-member negotiating panel for peace talks; indicated will propose Muslim sub-state once talks resume. Communist New People’s Army (NPA) violence continued. 7 NPA fighters killed in separate clashes in Masbate 7 Sept and Camarines Sur 12 Sept. Top NPA leader Elmer Osila killed 22 Sept in Camarines Sur; military 7 Sept announced arrest of senior NPA leader in Compostela Valley. Govt troops killed Abu Sayyaf militant during 19 Sept clash on Basilan island stronghold. Maguindanao massacre trial began 8 Sept.

Asia

Philippines

2 killed in 4 Aug bomb blast at Zamboanga airport, likely target Sulu province governor Saku Tan wounded; police investigating possible Abu Sayyaf involvement, Tan blamed political rivals. Fighting erupted 7 Aug between 2 MILF commanders in Datu Piang, displacing some 5,000; govt-MILF talks to resume in Sept after end of Ramadan; govt 31 Aug confirmed Malaysia will continue to facilitate talks. Maguindanao massacre trial of some 200 suspects to start 1 Sept. Escalating violence by communist New People’s Army (NPA) continued: 8 police, 1 local politician killed in 21 Aug Northern Samar province attack; 5 soldiers killed in Agusan del Sur province 25 Aug. Govt said attacks “undermine” proposed peace talks with NPA and extended Arroyo govt counter-insurgency plan “Oplan Bantay Laya” for 6 months.

Asia

Philippines

President Ninoy Aquino 15 July announced plans to revive dialogue with MILF, appointed prominent law professor as head of govt peace panel; MILF welcomed appointment, but said peace dependent on govt policies. Harassment, intimidation of witnesses to Nov 2009 Maguindanao massacre continued: gunmen 25 July killed 1 aide to prominent witness. 1 local Bayan Muna party official gunned down 5 July. Abu Sayyaf militants 8 July killed 3 on Sulu. Military-New People’s Army clashes continued: 7 soldiers killed in 9 July gun battle in north.

Asia

Philippines

Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino sworn in as new president 30 June following May election victory. MILF and govt 3 June signed pledge to continue work on peace deal under new president. Military chief Lt. Gen. Bangit, close ally of former President Arroyo, retired 21 June; Major Gen. Ricardo David appointed to replace him. Aquino appointed Teresite “Ging” Deles as Presidential Adviser to Peace Process; Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay announced winner of disputed VP contest. In Maguindanao, powerful provincial clans held peace dialogue 5 June aiming to heal relationships after Nov 2009 massacre and elections. Major witness to massacre killed 24 June. In separate incidents, 3 journalists critical of local politicians killed 14-20 June in Davao Oriental Province; police said 2 politicians are suspects, U.S. 21 June urged govt to move quickly to prosecute killers. Govt clashes with communist New Peoples Army (NPA) continued in Mindanao: over 12 killed during month; military 20 June acknowledged it could not meet 30 June deadline set by Arroyo to eradicate insurgency, though offensives have weakened NPA. Suspected NPA leader killed during 24 June clash with military. In Basilan, Abu Sayyaf 5 June killed 3 kidnapped workers after families failed to pay ransom; suspected Abu Sayyaf militants killed 4 in 25 June attack. Govt troops captured Abu Sayyaf deputy 16 June.

Asia

Philippines

10 May elections produced decisive win for Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III; outgoing President Arroyo won seat in congress; Esmael Mangudadatu, whose wife and family killed in Nov 2009 massacre, won governorship of Maguindanao; Andal Ampatuan Sr, currently on trial for massacre, lost bid for vice-governor. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and govt early month agreed terms of reference for civilian protection and unexploded ordnance clearing in Mindanao. Under pressure from Organisation of the Islamic Conference, MILF and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) 20 May signed agreement on closer coordination but unclear any practical significance. Clashes between govt and communist New Peoples Army (NPA) continued in eastern Mindanao.

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