CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Philippines

MILF, govt continued negotiations 18-21 Apr; joint statement claimed progress on cooperation to return refugees, clear unexploded ordnance. 12 killed, including 3 militants and 3 soldiers, in 13 Apr Abu Sayyaf attack on Isabela City, Basilan. 3 Abu Sayyaf militants killed in 16 Apr skirmish. Fresh troops deployed 22 Apr to Basilan to expand peacekeeping campaign. 7 soldiers wounded in New People’s Army (NPA) ambush 6 Apr; further clashes 10, 11 Apr in Davao City killed 7. Campaigning for 10 May elections continued with several candidates (including frontrunners Aquino, Estrada and Villar) bidding for presidency: election monitors 10 Apr said there had been 1,903 violations of nationwide election gun ban; military 30 April launched “red alert” requiring all personnel to remain on duty for election period. Sarangi governor escaped bomb attack 26 Apr in Santos City. In case of Nov Maguindanao massacre, Justice Secretary Agra 17 Apr dropped charges against Mindanao Governor Zaldy Ampatuan and Mamasapono Mayor Akwadi Ampatuan; president’s office asked Agra to review decision; 11 suspects 21 Apr pleaded not guilty to 57 counts of murder in court.

Asia

Philippines

Govt 23 March confirmed proposal for new interim peace deal for Mindanao. Details unclear, but talks on deal expected to start next month. MILF negotiator Lanang Ali 26 March expressed scepticism proposal would break impasse. Clashes between govt forces and New Peoples Army (NPA) continued: 11 soldiers killed 6 March in Mindoro Oriental Province. Court of Appeals 10 March rejected habeas corpus petition from relatives of 43 health workers detained in Feb as NPA cadres. 10 NPA guerrillas surrendered 12 March. In South Sulu province: 7 Abu Sayaf militants killed in clash with military 7 March. Former Maguindanao police chief Piang M. Adam, implicated in Nov 2009 massacre, recaptured 24 March after escaping Kudarat jail 16 Feb; arrest warrants issued 25 March for 197 others suspected of involvement in massacre. Police 23 March warned al-Qaeda linked militants and communist guerrillas planning attacks to disrupt May elections. Indonesia and Philippines 22 March agreed to intensify joint sea patrols to deal with arms smuggling and terrorism; followed Indonesian request for assistance in capturing suspected Indonesian militant believed to be in Philippines.

Asia

Philippines

MILF 17 Feb rejected govt’s Jan power-sharing proposal, stating draft “comprehensive compact” agreement unacceptable; talks to continue, but MILF chief negotiator said agreement unlikely before President Arroyos‘s term ends 30 June..Official campaigning for presidential election began 9 Feb, with police preparing for increase in electoral violence.196 additional suspects, including Andal Ampatuan Sr, charged with murder 9 Feb for Nov Maguindanao massacre. Former Maguindanao police chief, implicated in massacre and detained Dec for firearms possession, escaped Kudarat jail 16 Feb. Former bodyguard of Ampatuan Jr killed 12 Feb while attempting to kidnap daughter of Maguindanao governor candidate Esmael Mangudadatu. Hostilities between govt and New Peoples Army (NPA) continued; 14 soldiers killed 10 Feb in Mountain and Kalinga provinces; further 3 killed in other attacks. Govt made series of NPA-related arrests including 43 arrested 6 Feb for collaborating with group; international media claimed suspects are aid workers. 6 Abu Sayyaf militants, including commander Albader Parad, and 1 marine killed during 21 Feb clash in Jolo; followed 20 Feb arrest of Abu Sayyaf officer Mujibar Alih Amon. 11 people killed 27 Feb in Basilan in alleged Abu Sayyaf revenge attack.

Asia

Philippines

MILF and govt peace panels exchanged “comprehensive compact” drafts 27-28 Jan in Kuala Lumpur, as agreed under resumed peace talks. Draft accords include details on future autonomous Moro territory; talks scheduled to resume 18-19 Feb. In Mindanao, 5 MILF rebels killed, 5 injured during 8 Jan clash with gunmen allegedly linked to Ampatuan clan. Trial of Andal Ampatuan Jr for his role in Nov Maguindanao massacre began in Manila 5 Jan. Official “election period” began 10 Jan, prompting nation-wide gun ban to last until June; military requested state of emergency proclamation to continue in parts of Mindanao until after polls. 2 village leaders killed in separate attacks 19, 21 Jan in Masbate province, central Philippines; 2 local officials shot dead 31 Jan in Mindanao; motives believed related to polls. 4 rebels, 1 militiaman killed 30 Jan during clash between govt troops and communist NPA insurgents. Philippine officials expressed skepticism over reports that Abdul Basit Usman, Abu Sayyaf bomb expert with close ties to Jemaah Islamiyah, killed 14 Jan by U.S. drone strike in Pakistan.

Asia

Philippines

Formal peace talks between govt and MILF resumed 8-9 Dec in Kuala Lumpur for first time since Aug 2008, in presence of International Contact Group. Fallout continued from 23 Nov Maguindanao massacre. President Arroyo 4 Dec declared martial law in province to facilitate arrest of members of Ampatuan clan, allegedly responsible for massacre; lifted 13 Dec. Attacks on election candidates in Northern Luzon and Eastern Mindanao left 4 dead late month. Arroyo 31 Dec named members of new independent panel tasked with dismantling private armies before May elections. 1 militant killed, another recaptured by troops 14 Dec after 13 Dec jailbreak on Basilan Island by Abu Sayyaf and MILF convicts. 2 navy commandos killed during 30 Dec clash with Abu Sayyaf militants on Basilan Island.

Asia

Philippines

Group of local politicians, supporters and journalists abducted 23 Nov by around 100 gunmen in Maguindanao province, Mindanao, while on way to file candidacy for upcoming elections; 57 later confirmed dead. Perpetrators believed linked to political family allied to President Arroyo; local politician charged with murders 27 Nov, several local officials, police, military commanders suspended same day. UNICEF worker shot dead in same province 26 Nov. In 12-13 Nov visit, U.S. Sec State Clinton voiced support for govt-MILF talks, encouraging accord before 2010 elections. Statement followed meeting of senior MILF officials with senior U.S. State Dept official who delivered letter promising U.S. assistance for peace process. First meeting between MILF and govt officials since 2008 in Kuala Lumpur 17 Nov. MILF 12 Nov secured release of Irish priest one month after his abduction by rogue MILF elements; police urged MILF leadership to deliver kidnappers. Violence flared elsewhere in Mindanao as military confronted leftist New People’s Army (NPA) rebels in bloodiest clashes in 2 years; NPA killed 8 soldiers, 4 others in 11 Nov attack; military killed 11 rebels in same day counter-attack; 1 soldier, 5 rebels killed in separate clashes.

Asia

Philippines

Govt, MILF 15 Sept signed “Framework Agreement” outlining formation of International Contact Group to moderate planned talks, comprising Organization of Islamic Conference, EU, NGOs. MILF chair El Haj Murad Ebrahim said resumption of talks awaits establishment of Civilian Protection Mission. Army commander reported at least 34 Abu Sayyaf militants killed since 20 Sept start of assault on rebel stronghold in Sulu; 15 of deaths occurred during 21 Sept ambush on military killing 8 govt soldiers. Abu Sayyaf blamed for 29 Sept blast killing 2 U.S. troops, 1 Philippine marine. 3 kidnapped teachers held by rebels since March released 23 Sept. Senate 23 Sept passed resolution requesting govt renegotiate or terminate U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement which it argues violates constitution; accuses U.S. troops of engaging in combat operations in Mindanao, violating agreement. Following 8, 11 Sept New People’s Army (NPA) attacks on military, killing 3 civilians, NPA rebels 15 Sept cancelled suspended peace talks, called for fresh attacks after govt refusal of amnesty. Police 5 Sept announced arrest of 2 NPA leaders.

Asia

Philippines

23 soldiers and at least 21 rebels killed in 12 Aug govt assault on Abu Sayyaf base on Basilian island. Despite involvement of rogue MILF elements in attack, govt 15 Aug announced peace talks with MILF to continue. 7 MNLF members killed by govt forces in 19 Aug gunfight over Matangguli island, occupied by rebels since 15 Aug. Police 21 Aug arrested suspected leader of Rajah Solaiman Movement, radical Islamist group linked to Abu Sayyaf and suspected of 2004 Manila Bay ferry bombing. Amnesty International report 25 Aug described rights abuses by military and MILF, said over 200,000 still displaced by conflict. Former president Corazon Aquino, hailed for unseating dictator Marcos in 1986, died 1 Aug.

Asia

Philippines

Govt 23 July ordered suspension of military actions against MILF, reciprocated by MILF on 25 July. President Arroyo 28 July declared “good prospect for peace talks”. Police actions against 3 “rogue” MILF commanders to continue. MILF and govt 29 July signed joint statement agreeing to resume peace talks under auspices of Malaysia as 3rd party facilitator; agreed to reframe “consensus points” of failed 2008 Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain as starting point for moving toward more comprehensive settlement. Govt blamed early July bomb attacks in Mindanao, including 5 July bombing near Cotabato Cathedral killing 5, on JI and Abu Sayyaf elements, later suggested linkage to 17 July bombings in Jakarta; no evidence provided of connection. Abu Sayyaf group 11 July released remaining ICRC hostage held since January. Govt 19 July announced hundreds of marines, army troops to be deployed to Jolo and Basilian for new offensive to eradicate Abu Sayyaf by year-end and hunt down JI members. New Peoples Army and govt agreed to resume peace talks in Norway in Aug.

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