Clashes between authorities and communist rebels continued and govt conducted raids against Abu Sayyaf militants in south. Govt troops killed vice chairman of New People’s Army (NPA) 13 June in Sorsogon province; same day, suspected NPA fighters attacked police station in Mindanao province in south. Govt task force to end communist insurgency, created by President Duterte under executive order in 2018, reported NPA members 15 June killed two human rights activists in Sorsogon. In Negros Occidental, military 20 June killed two NPA militants in shoot-out in Santa Catalina town while one soldier died in clash with NPA in Manjuyod next day. Authorities early June arrested six suspected Abu Sayyaf members in separate raids in south; military announced deployment of 1,700 additional troops in Jolo to fight militants. Malaysian officials said Filipino gang members with suspected links to Abu Sayyaf militants abducted ten fishermen off Borneo island 18 June, taking them to southern Philippines; police 22 June reported that some hostages were freed in Sulu province, though total released remained unclear. Suicide bomb at military base in Jolo killed five and injured twelve 28 June; Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for attack while military said ISIS-linked Abu Sayyaf likely behind attack. Police in Cotabato province 10 June shot dead an ISIS-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighter militant who had escaped detention in 2018. Security forces 15 June arrested two militants in Quezon city who took part in Marawi City siege of 2017. Filipino fishing boat sank following 9 June collision with Chinese vessel in contested waters in South China Sea (see South China Sea).

Legislative and local elections accompanied by some incidents of violence in Mindanao and elsewhere, while clashes involving militant groups and communist rebels continued. NGO International Alert 22 May reported 144 election-related incidents involving violence in Mindanao 11-13 May, most involving rival clans, including use of grenades and IEDs as well as fights between rival supporters, although with less gun violence than past; warned of potential for revenge killings.  Nationally, police reported overall significant decline in election-related violence compared with previous votes, citing shift to vote-buying by rival candidates; police reported 33 election-related killings nationwide between mid-April and 13 May; in results, President Duterte secured firm majority in Senate and held lower house. Govt and MILF implementing panels 21 May handed over Proposed Transition Plan (PTP) to Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), including codes for BTA to legislate on electoral, local govt, education, administrative, revenue and civil services procedures; BTA chief Murad Ebrahim called handover another milestone in Bangsamoro peace process. Clashes continued between military and Abu Sayyaf in Sulu where military killed one suspected militant 5 May; six militants killed and fifteen wounded on 26 May in fighting in Patikul; two children killed and six civilians wounded in clash. Military said Dutch national held captive for over seven years by Abu Sayyaf was killed by militant group 31 May while trying to escape. Military reported continued fighting between govt troops and New People’s Army leading to several suspected rebels killed, including: one in Las Navas, Northern Samar (north) 5 May; five in Caraga region (north east) 19 May; at least three in Occidental Mindoro province (centre) 22 May.

Clashes between Communist New People’s Army (NPA) and security forces continued in Mindanao and in central regions as govt continued efforts to initiate local level negotiations following termination of peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), while military operations continued against Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Abu Sayyaf Group in Mindanao. Speaking at campaign rally for 13 May general (not presidential) elections 13 April, President Duterte said he would create new peace panel to manage local-level negotiations with NPA. National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, established by Executive Order in Dec 2018, met for first time 15 April; Duterte ordered that cabinet member be assigned to each region to oversee peace and development efforts. Jose Maria Sison, exiled founding chair of CPP which has long rejected idea of local-level talks, described peace panel as “war panel”. Several military and suspected NPA fighters killed in clashes during month, including two NPA killed in Davao del Sur 5 April; three suspected NPA in Negros Occidental 17 April; at least six soldiers in Samar 23 April. UN Humanitarian Agency reported almost 50,000 displaced by military operations against BIFF and remnants of Maute Group in Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur during last week of April. Military continued offensives against Abu Sayyaf in Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi; several police, soldiers and suspected Abu Sayyaf fighters killed in clashes; at least three Abu Sayyaf and two hostages killed following rescue attempt off Banguingui, Simisa Island 5 April. Security forces arrested two brothers in Cagayan, northern Luzon 28 March, first arrest of suspected ISIS sympathisers outside Mindanao. As part of “normalisation” annex of Bangsamoro peace agreement, Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 29 March announced it had submitted names of 12,000 fighters to be decommissioned, representing 30% of total fighters to be decommissioned. Police 4 April killed four MILF in “misencounter” in Lanao del Sur; MILF said it would investigate. Tensions increased with China over maritime disputes (see South China Sea).

Dozens of suspected militants and several soldiers reported killed and thousands of civilians displaced as army clashed with Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants in Maguindanao, while govt announced end of peace talks with communist rebels. Several soldiers reported killed in attacks by Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) early March, with fighting escalating as military launched operations against group in Maguindanao 9 March; military 13 March said it had killed some 20 militants in air and ground assaults, including two BIFF leaders and Singaporean national belonging to Indonesian Jemaah Islamiya group; one soldier also killed. Two militants killed 14 March, one believed to be Abu Dar, senior Maute Group leader who escaped Marawi City siege in 2017; two soldiers killed. UN Humanitarian Agency reported over 35,000 fled fighting in Maguindanao, while clashes between military and Maute group in Lanao del Sur 11 and 14 March displaced almost 9,000. Military launched airstrikes and clashed with Abu Sayyaf group in Sulu and Basilan. Clashes continued with communist New People’s Army (NPA), including in eastern Mindanao and Northern Samar, and military reported mass NPA surrenders including in Negros Occidental and Mindanao; fourteen NPA reported killed in Negros Occidental 30 March. President Duterte 21 March announced permanent termination of dialogue with Communist Party of the Philippines, although govt said still open to localised peace talks with NPA rebels. Duterte 4 March approved executive order for implementation of final “normalisation” annex of Bangsamoro peace agreement, including, under security component, decommissioning and disarming of thousands of former MILF rebels and transformation of their camps; other components are development, confidence-building measures and transitional justice and reconciliation. Security officials 12 March warned first meeting of Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao regional peace and order council that Abu Sayyaf is still region’s top security threat, particularly in Sulu. Bangsamoro Transition Authority held inaugural session 29 March. Ahead of 13 May midterm poll, election commission 19 March declared Mindanao “category red” hotspot for risk of “election-related incidents” and “serious armed threats” by rebel groups.

Month saw second phase of plebiscite on new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) and appointment of interim regional govt, while military campaign against militant groups continued. Following Jan plebiscite in Mindanao creating BARMM, Lanao del Norte province and parts of Cotabato province 6 Feb held plebiscite on whether to join entity: 63 out 67 villages in North Cotabato voted to join, while majority-Christian Lanao del Norte province voted against allowing six municipalities, all with strong Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) presence and in favour of joining BARMM, to do so, raising concerns over potential tensions and exclusion of major MILF camp from BARMM area. Lanao del Norte hit by three explosions on eve of plebiscite, no casualties. Duterte 22 Feb led swearing in of 80 members of Bangsamoro Transitional Authority (BTA), 41 of them appointed by MILF and 39 by govt, with MILF chair Murad Ebrahim chief minister. Military continued campaigns against militant groups and pursuit of individuals suspected of involvement in 27 Jan Jolo church bomb attack, reporting some suspects killed and some surrendered. Interior minister 1 Feb said Indonesian couple carried out attack assisted by Islamic State (ISIS) and Abu Sayyaf, Jakarta denied. Three suspected Abu Sayyaf militants and five soldiers killed in 2 Feb clash in Sulu province’s Patikul town, reportedly involving around 100 Abu Sayyaf.  In clash with Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao 3 Feb, military reported eight militants killed. Interior minister 7 Feb said Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan believed to be new Abu Sayyaf leader. Abu Sayyaf also continued to target civilians and threatened to kill three civilian hostages. Military continued campaign to end communist New People’s Army (NPA) insurgency, with several soldiers, police and NPA fighters reported killed in clashes during month. NPA also reportedly killed several civilians and freed some hostages. President Duterte again offered to reopen peace talks with Communist Party of the Philippines, in return for stopping attacks on security forces and taxation which govt terms extortion.

Voters in Mindanao overwhelmingly ratified Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) in 21 Jan referendum, approving creation of new entity, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Compared to prior autonomous region, BARMM will have expanded powers, larger territory, budget allocation and parliament; referendum represented culmination of efforts to implement 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro between govt and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), ending over 40 years of armed conflict in Mindanao. Voting took place in Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao, Cotabato City and Isabela City (which voted not to join new region), with turnout reported at over 85%. Election commission declared BOL ratified 25 Jan, with over 1.7mn people voting yes and some 255,000 against. Further vote to take place 6 Feb in adjacent areas including Lanao del Norte province and North Cotabato on whether they want to join BARMM. MILF chair Murad Ebrahim, expected to lead 80-member Bangsamoro Transition Authority that will govern BARMM until Oct 2022 national elections, welcomed result but warned of “huge challenge” of transforming from revolutionaries to administrators; region faces high poverty and threat of armed groups affiliated with Islamic State (ISIS). MILF negotiator Mohagher Iqbal said he hoped splinter groups would recognise popular will for peace. Two days after results announced, double bombing at cathedral in Jolo, Sulu province (which voted against BOL), killed at least 22 people and injured scores 27 Jan; ISIS claimed responsibility. Govt uncertain if it was suicide attack. Authorities believe bombing perpetrated by Ajang-Ajang gang, an Abu Sayyaf subgroup. Military launched ground assault and air strikes against militants in Sulu’s Patikul town. Two people killed in explosion at mosque in Zamboanga City 30 Jan. Attacks by armed groups and clashes with military continued, including encounter with Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters in Maguindanao 15 Jan which left four suspected rebels dead. Clashes also continued between military and Communist New People’s Army (NPA) rebels in different parts of country, killing several suspected rebels. Defence secretary early Jan announced new three-year deadline to end NPA insurgency.

Month saw intense clashes between military and communist New People’s Army (NPA) amid announcement of new counter-insurgency task force, while govt extended martial law in Mindanao and preparations continued for plebiscite to implement 2014 Bangsamoro peace agreement. Congress 12 Dec approved by 235-28 extension of martial law in Mindanao for third time until end-2019. President Duterte appointed newly-retired army chief of staff Carlito Galvez Jr as new presidential peace adviser, fuelling concerns over possible militarisation of approach to peace. Duterte 4 Dec signed Executive Order creating National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict by addressing root causes including delivery of basic services and social development in affected areas; also includes “mechanism for localised peace engagements or negotiations”. Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founder José María Sison said move intended to “terminate and prevent the resumption of peace talks at the appropriate national level”. Govt rejected CPP’s unilateral temporary ceasefire around holidays. Fighting between military and NPA included suspected NPA attacks on security forces in Bicol region and Capiz, one civilian killed; NPA raid in Sibagat, Agusan del Sur, 19 Dec, kidnapping twelve soldiers; clash in Compostela Valley 27 Dec wounding eleven soldiers. Congressman Rodel Batocabe shot dead 22 Dec in eastern Albay province along with police escort, amid concerns over possible violence around 2019 elections; NPA denied involvement. Clashes continued with Abu Sayyaf, including near Sulu’s Patikul 7 and 13 Dec killing two soldiers and several suspected militants; Duterte 17 Dec activated new 11th Infantry Division in Jolo, Sulu, to combat Abu Sayyaf. Clashes also continued with Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, including reported attack on army camp in Ampatuan, Maguindanao province 4 Dec. Bombing at mall in Cotabato City 31 Dec killed two, wounded 34. Electoral commission 7 Dec opened campaign period for plebiscite on Bangsamoro Organic Law to take place on 21 Jan in ARMM, Cotabato City and Isabela City, and on 6 Feb in Lanao del Norte, North Cotabato and local govt units that petitioned to take part.

Preparations continued for Jan plebiscite on Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), while violence involving Islamic State (ISIS)-linked groups and New People’s Army (NPA) persisted. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leader Murad Ebrahim visited national army HQ 19 Nov, reciprocating Oct visit by army chief of staff to MILF camp; during visit, MILF and military leaders discussed security preparations for 21 Jan plebiscite on creation of new Bangsamoro region through ratification of BOL, campaigning for which starts 7 Dec. Earlier, Moro National Liberation Front in 29 Oct meeting with Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus Dureza reiterated support for BOL and pledged to conduct information, education and communications campaign in their communities to support yes vote. Local officials in Maguindanao 8 Nov pledged support for joint security plan signed by police and army late Oct to tackle bomb attacks by ISIS-linked groups in region, which continued to clash with military during month; military late Nov announced operations to target militants ahead of plebiscite. As attacks blamed on communist NPA insurgent group continued, and peace talks remain stalled, govt 22 Nov authorised deployment of more police and military personnel in central provinces of Samar, Negros Oriental and Negros Occidental and Bicol Region; later clarified order was not a prelude to declaration of martial law. Philippines Commission on Human Rights warned move could worsen situation and govt “should address the roots of violence and crime” to stop cycle of violence. Clashes with NPA also reported in Quezon and Aurora (north), Misamis Occidental (Mindanao), Iloilo (centre). Presidential palace 1 Nov announced creation of national task force to address communist insurgency. Discussion over whether to extend martial law in Mindanao beyond 31 Dec continued, with military recommending extension, citing ongoing threat from terrorism and NPA and support from some local govt officials. Presidential Peace Adviser Dureza resigned 27 Nov following corruption allegations against two officials in his office. Govt 20 Nov signed bilateral cooperation agreement with China.

Violence and clashes involving New People’s Army (NPA) and Islamic State (ISIS)-linked militants continued, while govt mulled extension of martial law in Mindanao to secure 2019 elections and plebiscite on Bangsamoro Basic Law. Security forces clashed with NPA, armed wing of Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), including in Mindanao, where military reported it had seized control of NPA camp in Surigao del Norte 5 Oct. Military 17 Oct said it had captured five senior NPA leaders at checkpoint in Laguna province, south of Manila, accused of plot to oust Duterte. Alleged NPA attacks included one on road-building project in neighbouring Negros Oriental (centre) 18 Oct; and several deadly attacks on police in various provinces including in Camarines Sur (centre) and Aurora (north of Manila) 16 Oct. Military suggested NPA involvement in 20 Oct killing of nine farmers (including two minors) in Negros Occidental. Military 17 Oct said NPA attempting to incite unrest to push Duterte to declare martial law. Duterte 20 Oct said communist rebels should lay down their arms and would receive benefits including housing in return; communist leader Jose Maria Sison same day said ready to resume peace talks with govt. On one-year anniversary of end of five-month siege of Marawi City by ISIS-linked militants, Bangsamoro activist group reiterated complaints about official rehabilitation of destroyed city and alleged human rights violations by military. Presidential spokesperson 19 Oct said govt may again extend martial law in Mindanao, set to expire 31 Dec. Military continued operations against ISIS-linked Abu Sayyaf in south, including on Jolo island and in Mindanao’s Lanao del Sur, including three marines and seven suspected militants reported killed in clash in Patikul, Sulu 26 Oct. Military 22 Oct reported it had killed alleged key leader of ISIS-linked Ansar Al-Khilafah Philippines (AKP) in Mindanao’s Sarangani province, who they said was involved in 16 Sept explosion in General Santos city. Several killed in clashes between military and ISIS-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters in Mindanao’s Maguindanao province. UN General Assembly 12 Oct re-elected Philippines to another three-year term on UN Human Rights Council, in move govt said vindicated Duterte’s crackdown on drugs.

Preparations underway for plebiscite on Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) to create new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region (BAR) amid attacks by suspected Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in south, and clashes continued between military and Abu Sayyaf and New People’s Army (NPA) communist insurgency in the centre and north. Election commission 5 Sept scheduled plebiscite for 21 Jan 2019 in areas being considered for inclusion in BAR. Islamic State (ISIS)-linked BIFF suspected of responsibility for improvised explosive device in Sultan Kudarat provincial capital Isulan in Mindanao 2 Sept, which killed two and wounded over a dozen in second attack in a week. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace panel chair Mohagher Iqbal said attacks were attempt to derail peace efforts. Another bomb in Mindanao’s General Santos City 16 Sept injured at least eight; bomb in North Cotabato’s Midsayap same day caused no injuries. Authorities reported BIFF militants executed two farmers and injured two soldiers in attacks in Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao, 2 Sept. Gunfight between military and BIFF in Maguindanao’s Datu Montawal town 7 Sept killed three suspected militants and one civilian. Military reported seven Abu Sayyaf killed and seventeen soldiers wounded in gunfights in Sulu’s Patikul town 15 Sept, although local human rights group said they were civilians; military reported Abu Sayyaf militant killed in clash in area 10 Sept. Military 13 Sept reported 179 Abu Sayyaf had surrendered so far in 2018. Clashes between military and NPA continued, including in Negros Oriental province (centre), where clash with alleged NPA 3 Sept forced hundreds of civilians to flee; and police 12 Sept reported ambush by NPA on truck carrying civilians, killing at least nine; army reported two NPA militants and one soldier killed in separate clashes 13 Sept. Military requested President Duterte issue executive order to create national inter-agency task force to end insurgency. Duterte, facing two charges of crimes against humanity at International Criminal Court over thousands of alleged extrajudicial killings as part of his “war on drugs”, in 27 Sept speech appeared to admit responsibility for killings.